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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 15-02-2013
The yen fell against the dollar after an official from the G20 group reported that the latest draft of the statement does not repeat the G7 opinion as to whether that exchange rates should not be the object of politics. Meanwhile, the G20 called on members to avoid competitive devaluations, and stressed that exchange rates should be set by the market. Note that the yen fell by 7.2% this year against the dollar, which was associated with the desire to stimulate economic growth in Japan.
The Canadian dollar fell for the first time in four days against the U.S. dollar after Statistics Canada reported that the volume of supply in the industrial sector fell by -3.1% in December after rising 1.7% in November. Note that this decline was the worst in 43 months. Meanwhile, data showed that sales in manufacturing decreased to 48.02 million Canadian dollars (47.94 million U.S. dollars). Decline in December, according to analysts, primarily due to a decrease of 9.1% in the transport sector, and also in the assembly of cars (15.4%).
Pound shows its greatest weekly decline against the U.S. dollar since June, when the Office for National Statistics said that retail sales fell in January by 0.6%. This happened after a revised fall of 0.3% in December. Office for National Statistics indicated that the volume of retail sales in January was 0.6% lower than it was a year ago, that was the first time since the summer of 2011. Despite the fact that in the second half of the month was heavy snowfall, analysts were optimistic and predicted that the market will recover from disappointing data in December and shows a growth rate of 0.5%.
EUR/USD $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400, $1.3500
USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.25, Y93.00, Y93.10, Y94.00
GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5700
EUR/GBP stg0.8600, stg0.8650
USD/CHF Chf0.9240, Chf0.9300
EUR/CHF Chf1.2250, Chf1.2400, Chf1.2450
AUD/USD $1.0230, $1.0250, $1.0280, $1.0285, $1.0350, $1.0380
AUD/JPY Y96.00
09:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January -0.3% +0.5% -0.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +0.3% +0.9% -0.6%
10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 10.5 10.7 12.0
The euro fell against the dollar as investors wait for news from the G20 summit. EU representative Ren and member of the Governing Council of the ECB Asmussen to actively focus on reforms at the expense of monetary and fiscal stimulus. ECB Weidmann opposed the further lowering of interest rates.
In the Project that started in Moscow two-day G20 summit ECB President Mario Draghi said that the euro is not overvalued currency, and its long-term average rate corresponds to the nominal and real terms.
The single currency reacted negatively to the data on the trade balance of the euro area. According to the published data of the official statistics agency eurozone Eurostat, the December trade surplus in the euro area narrowed to € 11.7 billion from € 13 billion in the previous month and the forecast € 13.1 billion Exports from the euro zone in December fell by 1.8% compared to November after rising 0.6% the previous month. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variations and suggest that companies are experiencing difficulties in the eurozone implement their products in other markets, as the global economy slows.
The British pound fell against the dollar after the release of retail sales data, which showed the expected growth slowdown. In January, the annual retail sales in the UK fell by 0.6% against 0.1% the previous month, analysts were expecting growth of 0.8%. In a monthly comparison index fell by 0.6% vs. -0.3% and +0.4% forecast.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.3305
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.5460
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair rose to a maximum of Y93.27
In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will Empire Manufacturing production index for February, at 14:00 GMT - net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors, the total net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in December, in the 14:15 GMT - factor capacity utilization, the change in industrial production for January, to 14:55 GMT - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in February.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3450/60, $1.3415/25, $1.3400, $1.3355/65
Bids $1.3300, $1.3290, $1.3265/60, $1.3250
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5650, $1.5600/10, $1.5585, $1.5550
Bids $1.5460/50, $1.5400/390
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0450, $1.0415/20, $1.0400, $1.0380/85
Bids $1.0330/25, $1.0310/00, $1.0295/90, $1.0270/65, $1.0250
EUR/JPY
Offers Y124.90/00, Y124.50, Y124.35/40, Y124.20, Y123.75/80
Bids Y122.80, Y122.50, Y122.00, Y121.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y93.50, Y93.30/40, Y93.00, Y92.75/80
Bids Y92.30, Y92.05/00, Y91.50, Y91.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8685/90, stg0.8650, stg0.8630/35
Bids stg0.8570, stg0.8545/40, stg0.8520/15
Eurozone's trade surplus declined in December from a month earlier, the latest figures published by Eurostat revealed Friday.
The surplus fell to EUR 11.7 billion in December from a revised EUR 13 billion in the previous month. Economists expected the surplus to fall to EUR 13.1 billion from November's originally estimated EUR 13.7 billion.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports fell 1.8 percent between December and November. Imports declined 3 percent. Annually, exports fell 3 percent and imports were down 6 percent.
During 2012, euro area trade in goods recorded a surplus of EUR 81.8 billion, compared with EUR 15.7 billion shortfall in 2011. The EU 27 recorded a trade deficit of EUR 104.6 billion in 2012 compared with a deficit of EUR 162.7 billion in 2011.
EUR/USD $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400, $1.3500
USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.25, Y93.00, Y93.10, Y94.00
GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5700
EUR/GBP stg0.8600, stg0.8650
USD/CHF Chf0.9240, Chf0.9300
EUR/CHF Chf1.2250, Chf1.2400, Chf1.2450
AUD/USD $1.0230, $1.0250, $1.0280, $1.0285, $1.0350, $1.0380
AUD/JPY Y96.00
00:00 China Bank holiday -
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +2.5% +2.5% +2.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December -7.8% -7.9%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February
The yen climbed ahead of a meeting of Group-of-20 finance officials and as investors speculated who may be chosen to lead the Bank of Japan to carry out Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push for more monetary stimulus. G-20 finance ministers and central bankers start a two-day meeting today in Moscow. The group will reaffirm a pledge to “refrain from competitive devaluation” and will commit to monitoring “possible monetary-policy spillover,” according to a draft statement obtained by Bloomberg.
Toshiro Muto is the leading candidate for BOJ governor, Reuters reported today, citing people close to the selection process. Muto is the most conservative among probable choices, according to Citigroup Inc.
The euro was near three-week low on signs the currency bloc’s economy is struggling to recover. Reports yesterday signaled that the euro area’s recession deepened more than forecast last quarter. Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office said, the worst performance since the first quarter of 2009.
The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level in almost 1 1/2 years after retail sales jumped. In New Zealand, retail sales adjusted for inflation surged 2.1 percent in the three months through December from the third quarter, when they fell a revised 0.2 percent, the statistics office in Wellington said today. The gain was the most since the fourth quarter of 2006 and exceeded the 1.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3345-75.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.5520.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y92.25.
afternoon, US Empire mfg data at 1330GMT, TIC flows 1400GMT and IP and Cap.Ut. as 1415GMT. UK retail sales at 0930GMT to provide the morning interest, the result of which to set the tone for sterling for the balance of the day.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3362 -0,66%
GBP/USD $1,5493 -0,30%
USD/CHF Chf0,9209 +0,45%
USD/JPY Y92,86 -0,55%
EUR/JPY Y124,09 -1,22%
GBP/JPY Y143,87 -0,90%
AUD/USD $1,0357 -0,13%
NZD/USD $0,8510 +0,68%
USD/CAD C$1,0008 -0,09%
00:00 China Bank holiday -
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +2.5% +2.5%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December -7.8%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February
09:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January -0.1% +0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +0.3% +0.9%
10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 11.0 10.7
13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index February -7.8 -2.1
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) December +1.7% -0.4%
14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows December 52.3 34.3
14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows December 27.8
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) January +0.3% +0.2%
14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization January 78.8% 78.9%
14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) February 73.8 74.6
15:00 G20 G20 Meetings -
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