Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 17-06-2016

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1270-75 1.1300 1.1320 1.1355-60 1.1400 1.1420 1.1450 1.1480 1.1500

Bids 1.1220-25 1.1200 1.1185 1.1170 1.1150 1.1135 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4300 1.4325-30 1.4350-55 1.4380 1.4400 1.4420 1.4450

Bids 1.4240 1.4220 1.4200 1.4185 1.4150 1.4120 1.4100 1.4085 1.4065 1.4050 1.4030 1.4000

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7900-10 0.7930 0.7950 0.7980-85 0.8000 0.8020-25 0.8050

Bids 0.7870-75 0.7850 0.7825-30 0.7800 0.7780-85 0.7750

EUR/JPY

Offers 117.50 117.80 118.00 118.50 118.80 119.00 119.55-60 119.85 120.00

Bids 117.00 116.80 116.50 116.00 115.50 115.35 115.00

USD/JPY

Offers 104.50-55 104.75-80 105.00 105.30-35 105.50 105.80 106.00 106.50 106.85107.00

Bids 104.00 103.80-85 103.50 103.25 103.00 102.75-80 102.50 102.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7400-05 0.7420-25 0.7450 0.7485 0.7500 0.7520 0.7550

Bids 0.7370 0.7350 0.7320-25 0.7300 0.7285 0.7270 0.7250

Germany's Ifo institute upgraded its growth forecasts for Germany on Thursday. Germany's economy is expected to expand 1.8% in 2016, up from the previous estimate of 1.6%, and 1.6% in 2017, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%. The upward revision was driven by a strong labour market and higher state spending on refugees.

Finland's Finance Minister Alexander Stubb said on Thursday that Britain's exit from the European Union (EU) would have the same effect for Europe like the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the U.S.

"We're in the midst of one of the most historic weeks in the history of European integration," he added.

Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that he was concerned about "one-sided, rapid and speculative" moves of the yen. He pointed out that the government was ready to act to prevent these moves if needed.

According to data from the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, consumers' expectations for U.S. economy decreased to 42.1 in in the week ended June 12 from 43.5 the prior week.

The decrease was driven by drops in all sub-indexes. The measure of views of the economy was down to 32.7 from 32.9, the buying climate index slid to 38.0 from 40.3, while the personal finances index dropped to 55.8 from 57.4.

EUR/USD 1.1000 (EUR 261m) 1.1200 (384m) 1.1250 (485m) 1.1300 (1.19bln) 1.1361(220m)

USD/JPY 105.00 (USD 605m) 105.90-1060 (390m) 106.25 (USD 400m) 106.90-107.00 107.00 (880m)

GBP/USD 1.4000 (GBP 711m) 1.4100 (290m)

EUR/GBP 0.7875-80 (230m)

AUD/USD 0.7100 (AUD 320m) 0.7250 (301m) 0.7400 (266m) 0.7450 (390m)

NZD/USD 0.7035 (NZD 271m) 0.7100 (399m)

USD/CAD 1.2500 (USD 620m) 1.2630 (295m) 1.2950 (400m) 1.3000 (575m) 1.3010-15 (431m) 1.3050 (210m) 1.3150 (262m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1414 (2071)

$1.1379 (724)

$1.1342 (71)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1250

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1208 (2353)

$1.1166 (1671)

$1.1112 (2130)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 34548 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4151);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 83677 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0900 (16365);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 2.42 versus 2.11 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4530 (1662)

$1.4435 (537)

$1.4341 (218)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4231

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4156 (1377)

$1.4060 (3289)

$1.3963 (1100)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 20626 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (3431);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 39216 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4100 (3289);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.90 versus 1.99 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The yen held near multi-year highs against the dollar and euro early on Friday, having surged after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding fresh stimulus, while sterling recovered ground as the killing of a pro-European Union lawmaker was expected to boost sentiment for the "Remain" camp in Britain's EU referendum.

Because of its safe-haven status, the yen has benefited from uncertainty over the outcome of next Thursday's referendum in Britain on whether to remain in the EU or leave, with both the U.K. and EU economies seen suffering if Britain quits.

"Продолжающееся бездействие со стороны Банка Японии перед лицом этих рисков только усиливает подозрения на рынке, что центральный банк работает из вариантов политики, подавая обратно в более сильной иены", сказал экономист HSBC Izumi Devalier в примечании.

Министр финансов Японии Таро Асо заявил в пятницу, что он был глубоко обеспокоен "односторонними, быстрых и спекулятивных движений" видели на валютном рынке и будет реагировать, если это необходимо для обеспечения стабильности в валютах.

The euro hovered just above 117.32 yen, after skidding to a three-year trough of 115.51.

Campaigning in Britain was suspended after the parliamentarian, a vocal advocate for staying in the EU, was shot dead in the street.

"Market participants appear to have interpreted the killing as a blow to support for the leave camp," analysts at Commonwealth Bank wrote in a note to clients.

Sterling bounced back above $1.4200, turning around from a slide to a two-month low of $1.4013.

"$1.4 is an important level in a historical perspective. It is very rare for the pound to stay below that level. It may not be easily broken," said a trader at U.S. bank in Tokyo.

Preparing for a market storm, many of the world's biggest banks plan to draft senior traders to work through the night following the referendum, and policymakers in several countries are on guard against volatility.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1230-75

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.4195-1.4290

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in range Y104.10-85