Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 17-11-2017

• Says he is very cautious but optimistic

EUR/USD: 1.1500-02(1.49 млрд), 1.1579-80(1.14 млрд), 1.1700(358 млн), 1.1720-25(880 млн), 1.1750(409 млн), 1.1790-1.1800(655 млн ), 1.1825(694 млн),1.1840-50(646 млн)

GBP/USD: 1.2950(303 млн), 1.3000(311 млн), 1.3300(640 млн)

USD/JPY: 111.00(494 млн), 113.25(375 млн), 113.45-50(910 млн), 114.25(515 млн)

USD/CHF: 0.9855(300 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2600(519 млн), 1.2700(330 млн), 1.2800-10(694 млн),

AUD/JPY: 85.50(940 млн)

AUD/CAD: 0.9730(225 млн)

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. This is 5.9 percent above the revised September rate of 1,225,000 and is 0.9 percent above the October 2016 rate of 1,285,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this is 1.9 percent above the revised September figure of 823,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 416,000 in October. Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,290,000. This is 13.7 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,135,000, but is 2.9 percent below the October 2016 rate of 1,328,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 877,000; this is 5.3 percent above the revised September figure of 833,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 393,000.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 1.6% gain in September. The all-items excluding gasoline index rose 1.3% year over year in October, after increasing 1.1% in September.

Prices were up in seven of the eight major CPI components in the 12 months to October, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the increase. The clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis.

Transportation prices rose 3.0% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 3.8% increase in September. This deceleration was led by gasoline prices, which increased 6.5% year over year in October after increasing 14.1% the previous month in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. At the same time, the purchase of passenger vehicles index rose 1.5% month over month in October, providing the impetus for the largest year-over-year gain in this index since March 2017.

EUR/USD: 1.1500-02(1.49 b), 1.1579-80(1.14 b), 1.1700(358 m), 1.1720-25(880 m), 1.1750(409 m), 1.1790-1.1800(655 m), 1.1825(694 m),1.1840-50(646 m)

GBP/USD: 1.2950(303 m), 1.3000(311 m), 1.3300(640 m)

USD/JPY: 111.00(494 m), 113.25(375 m), 113.45-50(910 m), 114.25(515 m)

USD/CHF: 0.9855(300 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2600(519 m), 1.2700(330 m), 1.2800-10(694 m),

AUD/JPY: 85.50(940 m)

AUD/CAD: 0.9730(225 m)

• Recovery therefore has not come against the backdrop of re-leveraging in any economic sector

• We have increasing confidence that the recovery is robust and that this momentum will continue going

• We are not yet at a point where the recovery of inflation can be self-sustained without our accommodative policy

• As regards bank profitability, ECB research finds little evidence that our monetary policy is currently doing harm

• Economy may be becoming more resilient to new shocks

The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €37.8 billion in September 2017. This reflected surpluses for goods (€35.2 billion), primary income (€9.7 billion) and services (€7.3 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€14.3 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in September 2017 recorded a surplus of €346.4 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €359.3 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to September 2016. This development was due to a decrease in the surplus for goods (from €377.0 billion to €342.0 billion) and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €135.9 billion to €151.1 billion). These were partly offset by increases in the surpluses for primary income (from €69.2 billion to €93.4 billion) and services (from €49.0 billion to €62.0 billion).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1891 (3853)

$1.1859 (7230)

$1.1834 (3220)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1798

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1757 (1503)

$1.1725 (1799)

$1.1700 (3109)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 155695 contracts (according to data from November, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8411);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3352 (2413)

$1.3320 (2688)

$1.3293 (3265)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3249

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3181 (852)

$1.3142 (1177)

$1.3083 (1348)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 41372 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3265);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 39073 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3742);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.