Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 18-12-2013

Rate of the euro regained some ground against the dollar, on the eve of the announcement of the outcome of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System . The main issue now worried investors , is the following : will the Fed to reduce the volume of purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities ? Given the number of factors fundamental nature , we can say that a certain reduction in purchases may occur . Among these factors in the first place is worth noting the main macroeconomic reports published during the last month . The data indicate that the recovery of the U.S. economy has enough solid foundation and it can be self-sufficient in order to further improve the employment situation and not only.

Note that initially the strengthening of the dollar helped the U.S. data , which showed that the volume of construction of new homes rose in November to its highest level in almost six years - is the latest sign of renewed movement in the restoration sector. Construction of new homes in the U.S. rose by 22.7% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.091 million . The result was higher than economists forecast in 990 000 , and helped increase the average growth rate over the past three months to 951,000 . Sharp increase in construction of new homes was primarily driven by 21% growth in the construction of single-family homes , the largest and most stable segment of the market . In November, building permits, an indicator of future construction, fell slightly to the level of 1.007 million . Permits jumped 6.7% in October.

Pound rose substantially against the U.S. dollar , which helped the British data. As it became known , the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK fell slightly to 3.8 percent in November from 3.9 percent in October . The rate of change in line with expectations of economists.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell by 36,700 to 1.27 million, the lowest level since January 2009 . Economists had expected a drop of 35 200. During August to October was recorded 30.09 million people in employment aged 16 and over , up 250,000 compared to the period from May to July , and more than 485 thousand in comparison with a year earlier . At the same time , the unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent, compared with a gain of 0.3 percentage points from May to July . The result was lower than expected 7.6 percent . Average weekly earnings , including bonuses , taking into account , rose by 0.9 per cent from August to October compared with the same period a year earlier.

The yen fell against the dollar after a negative report on the trade balance of the country and on the eve of the announcement of the Fed meeting . Note that in November Japan reported the largest trade deficit , which amounted to Y1, 29 trillion . yen ($ 12.6 billion ) , reported today in the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo. In accordance with the average estimate of economists , the index should make Y1350 billion yen. Imports rose by 21.1 % compared with a year earlier, with the support of the upcoming increase in demand due to the sales tax in April. Exports rose by 18.4%.

USD/JPY Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.80, Y102.85, Y102.95, Y103.00, Y103.20, Y103.50, Y104.00

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3685, $1.3700, $1.3735, $1.3745, $1.3750, $1.3800

GBP/USD $1.6145, $1.6300

EUR/USD Sek9.04

AUD/USD $0.8890, $0.8900, $0.8950, $0.8975, $0.9000

NZD/USD $0.8250, $0.8350

USD/CAD C$1.0450, C$1.0500, C$1.0550, C$1.0570, C$1.0585, C$1.0700

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3850, $1.3830/35, $1.3815/20, $1.3800/05, $1.3775/85

Bids $1.3745-20, $1.3710/00, $1.3670/65

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6420/30, $1.6390/400, $1.6380

Bids $1.6320/10, $1.6295/90, $1.6250/40, $1.6200

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9045/50, $0.8980/90, $0.8950, $0.8925/30

Bids $0.8880, $0.8850, $0.8825, $0.8800

EUR/JPY

Offers Y143.00, Y142.45/50, Y142.20, Y141.95/00

Bids Y141.25/20, Y141.00, Y140.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.80, Y103.45/50, Y103.20

Bids Y102.50, Y102.20, Y102.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8520/30, stg0.8500, stg0.8475/80, stg0.8467

Bids stg0.8400, stg0.8395/90, stg0.8375, stg0.8355/45, stg0.8330/20, stg0.8300/290

USD/JPY Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.80, Y102.85, Y102.95, Y103.00, Y103.20, Y103.50, Y104.00

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3685, $1.3700, $1.3735, $1.3745, $1.3750, $1.3800

GBP/USD $1.6145, $1.6300

EUR/USD Sek9.04

AUD/USD $0.8890, $0.8900, $0.8950, $0.8975, $0.9000

NZD/USD $0.8250, $0.8350

USD/CAD C$1.0450, C$1.0500, C$1.0550, C$1.0570, C$1.0585, C$1.0700

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin

06:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance November 3.23 2.41 3.87

The greenback traded stronger to mixed against its major peers in Asian trade after the FED's policy meeting ended yesterday as FED Chair Janet Yellen stated that rates are going to be raised next year once economic parameters were met - finally removing the "considerable time" from the minutes. She further said "the committee considers it unlikely to begin normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings". The U.S. dollar extended its gains against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese Yen.

The Australian dollar recovered slightly from a four year low after yesterday's slump.

New Zealand's dollar traded positive to stable against the greenback currently quoted at USD0.7707. The GDP on a quarterly basis beat expectations by +0.3% with a reading of +1.0%. Yearly GDP in the third quarter decreased from +3.9% to +3.2%, missing forecasts by 0.1%.

The Japanese yen continued to decline versus the U.S. dollar after the currency hit a monthly high on Tuesday fuelled by fears over falling oil prices and Russia's economic crisis.

EUR/USD: the euro lost against the greenback

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate December 104.7 105.6

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment December 110.0 110.3

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations December 99.7 100.9

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) November +0.8% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) November +4.3% +4.5%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 294 297

14:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) December 56.2 57.1

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators November +0.9% +0.6%

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey December 40.8 26.3

21:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals November +3.3%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence December 60.5 64.1

01:30 China Property Prices, y/y November +9.6% +9.9%

The yen dropped versus its 16 major peers after data showed the nation reported its biggest trade deficit on record, eroding the nation’s haven appeal. Japan’s merchandise trade deficit for November was 1.35 trillion yen ($13.1 billion) on a seasonally-adjusted basis, compared with the 1.2 trillion yen median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports climbed 21.1 percent from a year earlier while exports rose 18.4 percent, the finance ministry said.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index was little changed for a second day at 1,016.15 before the Fed decision. There’s about a 60 percent chance the Fed will announce a reduction in its $85 billion monthly asset-purchase program today, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. “The market is going to be reacting to the package and not just one element, which is the taper,” said El-Erian.

Australia’s dollar rose from near a four-month low after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said that low borrowing costs are supporting higher spending in the economy. The RBA governor said the board has maintained an “open mind” on whether it needs to cut interest rates further as it sees signs low borrowing costs are supporting spending. He reiterated that balanced growth would probably require a lower exchange rate.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3760-75

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6290

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded rose to Y103.05

Germany Ifo data due at 0900GMT to provide the morning's focus though the mentioned FOMC  ater will overshadow.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3767 +0,05%

GBP/USD $1,6262 -0,21%

USD/CHF Chf0,8848 -0,25%

USD/JPY Y102,66 -0,35%

EUR/JPY Y141,34 -0,29%

GBP/JPY Y166,94 -0,56%

AUD/USD $0,8897 -0,54%

NZD/USD $0,8270 +0,17%

USD/CAD C$1,0605 +0,09%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence December 60.5

01:30 China Property Prices, y/y November +9.6%

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate December 109.3 109.7

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment December 112.2 112.5

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations December 106.3 106.5

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y October +0.7% +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y October +0.8% +0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count November -41.7 -35.2

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate November 3.9% 3.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate October 7.6% 7.6%

10:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings December

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m October -1.3%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y October -0.2%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) December 31.6 36.0

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance December 1 9

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m October +0.2% +0.4%

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln September 0.891 0.910

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln October 0.921

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln November 0.950

13:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln November 1.034 0.990

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -10.6

19:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections

19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement

19:00 U.S. FOMC QE Decision

19:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference

21:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter III +0.2% +1.1%

21:45 New Zealand GDP y/y Quarter III +2.5% +3.4%