Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 19-06-2018

• U.S Economy Can Handle Higher Oil Prices Better Than Before

• Oil Supply Shortfall Could Push Oil Prices Even Higher

• Oil Under-Supply Makes Markets 'Vulnerable' to Geopolitical Price Spikes

• Low Oil Investment Spending During Bust May Stem Future Supplies

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,301,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised April rate of 1,364,000, but is 8.0 percent above the May 2017 rate of 1,205,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 844,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised April figure of 863,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 421,000 in May.

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,350,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised April estimate of 1,286,000 and is 20.3 percent above the May 2017 rate of 1,122,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 936,000; this is 3.9 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised April figure of 901,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.

• Oil market may face deficit in 3Q if no moves on output

EUR/USD falls, to more-than-two-week low of 1.1530 reached late last week, after downbeat comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, he said "uncertainty surrounding the eurozone growth outlook has recently increased".

This reflected surpluses for goods (€21.0 billion), services (€9.6 billion) and primary income (€8.5 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€10.7 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in April 2018 recorded a surplus of €413.7 billion (3.7% of euro area GDP), compared with €361.3 billion (3.3% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to April 2017. This development was due to increases in the surpluses for services (from €46.1 billion to €106.1 billion) and goods (from €347.2 billion to €353.9 billion), and to a decrease in the deficit for secondary income (from €147.2 billion to €138.3 billion). These were partially offset by a decrease in the surplus for primary income (from €115.2 billion to €92.0 billion).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1839 (2435)

$1.1780 (1215)

$1.1741 (503)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1597

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1554 (2286)

$1.1516 (4442)

$1.1476 (4835)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 98366 contracts (according to data from June, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4835);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3391 (401)

$1.3350 (165)

$1.3325 (160)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3224

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3177 (2518)

$1.3146 (2011)

$1.3110 (1029)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 22483 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2213);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 26131 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2518);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 18.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government's Expert Group - summer 2018 - The Expert Group is keeping to its previous assessment and anticipates robust GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018. While the booming global economy and favourable trend in exchange rates are boosting demand for Swiss products, growth is also gaining increasing momentum from the domestic economy. The Expert Group expects support from the international economy to gradually abate in 2019, while GDP growth in Switzerland looks set to remain at a solid 2.0% in the coming year.

• Recent data consistent with forecast acceleration in GDP growth to above 3 pct

• Inflation to remain low for some time, pick up gradually to above 2 pct

• Data suggested household consumption was less buoyant in Q2, partly due to warm weather

• Low rates supporting economy, steady policy consistent with goals

• Progress on unemployment and inflation expected to be only gradual

Residential property prices fell 0.7 per cent in the March quarter 2018, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said Australia's two largest cities led the fall: "Sydney recorded the third consecutive quarter of falling property prices (-1.2 per cent) and the first annual price fall (-0.5 per cent) since the March quarter 2012, while Melbourne property prices fell 0.6 per cent, the first quarterly price fall since September quarter 2012."

"Regulatory changes and tighter lending conditions have continued to affect investors, who are more active in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. These cities have seen strong price growth over recent years particularly in detached dwellings."