Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 19-08-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3317 -0,33%

GBP/USD $1,6614 -0,67%

USD/CHF Chf0,9092 +0,31%

USD/JPY Y102,92 +0,35%

EUR/JPY Y137,06 +0,02%

GBP/JPY Y170,98 -0,32%

AUD/USD $0,9296 -0,28%

NZD/USD $0,8421 -0,67%

USD/CAD C$1,0940 +0,49%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Leading Index June +0.1%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m June +0.6% -0.2%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) July 0.0% +0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) July -0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance August 2 4

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m June +2.2% +1.3%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories August 1.4

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

22:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals July -0.3%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the better-than-expected U.S. housing market data. Housing starts in the U.S. jumped 15.7% to 1.093 million units in July from 945,000 units in June. That was the strongest rate since November. June's figure was revised up from 893,000 units. Analysts had expected a rise to 970,000 units.

The number of building permits rose by 8.1% to 1.052 million units in July from 973,000 in June. June's figure was revised up from 963,000 units. Analysts had expected 1.0 million units.

The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.1% in July, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices in the U.S. rose 2.0% in July, after a 2.1% gain in June.

Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.1% in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.1% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices, excluding food and energy, increased 1.9% in July, after a 1.9% rise in June.

The euro fell against the U.S. the better-than-expected U.S. housing market data.

Eurozone's current account surplus dropped to 13.1 billion euros in June from a surplus of 19.8 billion euros in May, missing expectations for an increase to 21.3 billion euros. May's figure was revised up from a surplus of 19.5 billion euros.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected economic data from the UK and the better-than-expected U.S. housing market data.

Consumer price index in the UK decreased 0.3% in July, a 0.2% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer price inflation the UK rose 1.6% in July, missing expectations for a 1.8% gain, after a 1.9% increase in June.

CPI, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs, jumped 1.8% in July, missing expectations for a 1.9% rise, after a 2.0% gain in June.

Producer price index input in the UK fell 1.6% in July, missing forecasts of a 0.8% decline, after a 0.9% decrease in June. June's figure was revised down from a 0.8% drop.

Producer price index output in the UK decreased 0.1% in July, missing forecasts of a 0.1% increase, after a 0.1% fall in June. June's figure was revised up from a 0.2% decline.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar. In the overnight trading session, the New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S dollar after the weaker-than-expected economic data from New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand fell by 1.0% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.7% rise, after a 1.0% gain in the first quarter.

Producer price index output in New Zealand declined by 0.5% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.9% rise in the first quarter.

New Zealand's annual inflation expectations for the next two years decreased to 2.2% in the second quarter from 2.4% in the first quarter.

Growth forecast cut by New Zealand's government also weighed on the kiwi. The government lowered growth forecast in the year to next March to 3.8% from 4% earlier.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected U.S. housing market data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its policy meeting minutes. The RBA said that its interest rate will remain on hold for some time. There were no comments on the currency.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar the better-than-expected U.S. housing market data. No major economic reports were released in Japan.

The U.S. Commerce Department released the U.S. housing data today. Housing starts in the U.S. jumped 15.7% to 1.093 million units in July from 945,000 units in June. That was the strongest rate since November. June's figure was revised up from 893,000 units. Analysts had expected a rise to 970,000 units.

The number of building permits rose by 8.1% to 1.052 million units in July from 973,000 in June. June's figure was revised up from 963,000 units. Analysts had expected 1.0 million units.

EUR/USD $1.3350(E886mn), $1.3365-75(E204mn), $1.3390(E324mn)

USD/JPY Y102.50($220mn), Y102.60($375mn), Y103.00($250mn)

GBP/USD $1.6600(stg260mn), $1.6685(stg396mn), $1.6795(stg201mn)

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100(E100mn)

AUD/USD $0.9290(A$163mn), $0.9340(A$100mn)

NZD/USD $0.8425(NZ$140mn), $0.8450(NZ$104mn)

USD/CAD C$1.0850-55($170mn), C$1.0950($242mn)

The Labor Department in the U.S. released consumer price index. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.1% in July, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices in the U.S. rose 2.0% in July, after a 2.1% gain in June.

Gasoline prices declined 0.3% in July, while food prices rose 0.4% in July.

Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.1% in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.1% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices, excluding food and energy, increased 1.9% in July, after a 1.9% rise in June.

The figures could mean that the Fed will keep its interest rate low for a while.

The Fed's inflation target is 2% at annual rate. The Fed prefers to use the index for personal consumption. The index for personal consumption was 1.6% at annual rate in June.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter III +2.4% +2.2%

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln June 19.8 Revised From 19.5 21.3 13.1

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m July +0.2% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y July +2.6% +2.6% +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y July +2.7% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -0.9% -0.8% -1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) July -4.5% -7.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.1% +0.1% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) July +0.3% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m July +0.2% -0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y July +1.9% +1.8% +1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y July +2.0% +1.9% +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. housing data and consumer price index. The consumer price index is expected to increase 0.1% in July, after a 0.3% rise in June.

The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% in July, after a 0.1% gain in June.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected current account data from the Eurozone. Eurozone's current account surplus dropped to 13.1 billion euros in June from a surplus of 19.8 billion euros in May, missing expectations for an increase to 21.3 billion euros. May's figure was revised up from a surplus of 19.5 billion euros.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected economic data from the UK. Consumer price index in the UK decreased 0.3% in July, a 0.2% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer price inflation the UK rose 1.6% in July, missing expectations for a 1.8% gain, after a 1.9% increase in June.

CPI, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs, jumped 1.8% in July, missing expectations for a 1.9% rise, after a 2.0% gain in June.

Producer price index input in the UK fell 1.6% in July, missing forecasts of a 0.8% decline, after a 0.9% decrease in June. June's figure was revised down from a 0.8% drop.

Producer price index output in the UK decreased 0.1% in July, missing forecasts of a 0.1% increase, after a 0.1% fall in June. June's figure was revised up from a 0.2% decline.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.6632

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y102.69

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln July 0.963 1.000

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln July 0.893 0.970

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m July +0.3% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y July +2.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m July +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y July +1.9%

23:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln July -1080.8 -770.0

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3485, $1.3445, $1.3415, $1.3400, $1.3375/80

Bids $1.3330, $1.3300-3295, $1.3230

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6845, $1.6800/10, $1.6750

Bids $1.6620, $1.6600, $1.6550

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9370, $0.9350

Bids $0.9285/80, $0.9240, $0.9220/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.60

Bids Y136.75, Y136.50, Y136.25/20

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.50, Y103.00, Y102.80/85, Y102.70

Bids Y102.30, Y102.15, Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8035, stg0.8000

Bids stg0.7980, stg0.7950/40, stg0.7900

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released consumer price inflation today. Consumer price index in the UK decreased 0.3% in July, a 0.2% rise in June.

On a yearly basis, consumer price inflation the UK rose 1.6% in July, missing expectations for a 1.8% gain, after a 1.9% increase in June.

Food prices declined by 0.6% in July, while clothing prices fell 0.2% in July.

CPI, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs, jumped 1.8% in July, missing expectations for a 1.9% rise, after a 2.0% gain in June.

Retail price index increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in July, missing expectations for a 2.6% gain, after a 2.6% rise in June.

EUR/USD $1.3350(E886mn), $1.3365-75(E204mn), $1.3390(E324mn)

USD/JPY Y102.50($220mn), Y102.60($375mn), Y103.00($250mn)

GBP/USD $1.6600(stg260mn), $1.6685(stg396mn), $1.6795(stg201mn)

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100(E100mn)

AUD/USD $0.9290(A$163mn), $0.9340(A$100mn)

NZD/USD $0.8425(NZ$140mn), $0.8450(NZ$104mn)

USD/CAD C$1.0850-55($170mn), C$1.0950($242mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter III +2.4% +2.2%

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln June 19.8 Revised From 19.5 21.3 13.1

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m July +0.2% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y July +2.6% +2.6% +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y July +2.7% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -0.8% -0.8% -1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) July -4.4% -7.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.2% +0.1% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) July +0.2% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m July +0.2% -0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y July +1.9% +1.8% +1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y July +2.0% +1.9% +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies. The greenback was supported by yesterday's NAHB housing market index. The NAHB housing market index climbed to 55.0 in August from 53.0 in July. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 53.0.

The New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S dollar after the weaker-than-expected economic data from New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand fell by 1.0% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.7% rise, after a 1.0% gain in the first quarter.

Producer price index output in New Zealand declined by 0.5% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.9% rise in the first quarter.

New Zealand's annual inflation expectations for the next two years decreased to 2.2% in the second quarter from 2.4% in the first quarter.

Growth forecast cut by New Zealand's government also weighed on the kiwi. The government lowered growth forecast in the year to next March to 3.8% from 4% earlier.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting minutes. The RBA said that its interest rate will remain on hold for some time. There were no comments on the currency.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln July 0.963 1.000

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln July 0.893 0.970

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m July +0.3% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y July +2.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m July +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y July +1.9%

23:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln July -1080.8 -770.0

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3441 (6169)

$1.3415 (1234)

$1.3396 (677)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3357

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3339 (1789)

$1.3322 (5110)

$1.3298 (4507)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 54616 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (6169);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 59930 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (6603);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 18

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7000 (2650)

$1.6901 (2433)

$1.6804 (1695)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6718

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6694 (3098)

$1.6597 (1990)

$1.6499 (1848)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 27506 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2650);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 29531 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (4032);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.