Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 20-03-2013

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20.03.2013

18:56

American focus: the euro strengthened from a four-month low against the dollar

The dollar remained lower against the euro after the Federal Reserve signaled gains in employment aren’t yet sufficient for policy makers to move closer to reducing stimulus measures. The Fed said the nation’s unemployment rate will hit the central bank’s threshold for raising interest rates sometime in 2015. The Fed under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will continue buying $85 billion of bond per month, known as quantitative easing, or QE, as it seeks to reduce the unemployment rate that hasn’t fallen below 7 percent since November 2008.

The euro strengthened from a four-month low against the dollar as Cyprus sought alternatives to the European Union plan to help the nation avoid a banking collapse.

Bernanke, starting today, will cut the time between the release of post-meeting statements by the Federal Open Market Committee and his news briefings, giving investors less opportunity to misperceive the Fed’s intent.

In recent presentations, he has pledged to sustain easing, defending monthly bond purchases during congressional testimony last month and warning that “premature removal of accommodation” may weaken the expansion. The Fed is targeting a reduction of the jobless rate to 6.5 percent while keeping inflation to 2.5 percent.

Cyprus hasn’t reached any deal with Russian investors for the sale of Cyprus Popular Bank Plc, government spokesman Christos Stylianides said in a telephone interview in Nicosia today. A preliminary deal to sell the bank to Russian investors was reached, Kathimerini Cyprus reported earlier, without citing anyone.

The pound advanced as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the government will keep the Bank of England’s 2 percent target inflation target and allow room for “tradeoffs” in the decision-making process. Sterling pared a drop versus the euro. The government is reviewing the central bank’s remit, including the potential provision of forward guidance on interest rates, Osborne said today in parliament. Government bonds pared a decline.

18:00

U.S.: Fed Interest Rate Decision , March 0.25% (forecast 0.25%)

15:00

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, March -23.5 (forecast -23.2)

14:30

U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, March -1.3

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2870, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y94.00, Y95.00, Y95.20, Y95.25, Y95.75, Y96.00, Y95.20

EUR/JPY Y121.00, Y125.00, Y125.20

GBP/USD $1.5050, $1.5100, $1.5200

AUD/USD $1.0245, $1.0350, $1.0400

12:15

European session: British pound rose sharply

Data

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) February +0.8% +0.2% -0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) February +1.7% +1.5% +1.2%

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln January 15.9 7.9 13.9

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes March

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate January 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y January +1.3% +1.5% +1.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y January +1.3% +1.5% +1.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count February -10.0 -5.2 -1.5

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate February 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March 10.0 2.3

The euro strengthened to a four-month low against the dollar on the background of the fact that the Parliament of Cyprus took the EU rescue program, and President Nikos Anastasiadis began talks with party leaders and the head of the Central Bank this morning in an attempt to reach agreement on alternative proposals that are less damage to private investors.

Cyprus government spokesman confirmed that a special commission. which will develop a "plan B". According to previous reports, can be used by social security funds or resources of the Orthodox Church. It is also possible that the Cypriot banks will be closed until the middle of next week. Meanwhile, Minister of Finance of Cyprus today, visited Moscow for talks on extending the life of the loan of 2.5 billion euros, and possibly additional funding, as Russia wants to protect their deposits with Cyprus banks.

The pound rose sharply against the dollar, after a significant decline in the first half of the session, after the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England for March 6-7, showed that most politicians have expressed the opinion that the increase in bond purchase program could undermine their authority. Also influenced by the dynamics of trade data provided by the Office of National Statistics, which showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell in February, but less than expected.

According to the report, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell last month to 1,500, while reaching the level of 1.54 million, while many economists forecast a drop of 5.2 thousand In addition, it was reported that the level of applications unemployment to employment was 4.7%, unchanged from the previous month, and fully in line with estimates. The data also showed that from November to January, the number of unemployed was 2.52 million, which was in 7000 more than from August to October 2012, marking the first increase since November 2011-January 2012.

The yen fell against the dollar against the yen ahead of the announcement of the results of the two-day Fed meeting. It is expected that the Federal Open Market Committee decides to leave the program redemption of government bonds to support economic growth at the same level. A committee will announce its economic forecasts, and after the meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a conference call with reporters

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2952

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5024, and then rose to $ 1.5156

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y95.50

At 12:30 GMT the UK will provide an annual budget for 2013. At 14:30 U.S. is to publish data on stocks of crude oil from the Energy Department in March. At 15:00 GMT Eurozone release indicator of consumer confidence for March. At 16:30 GMT the U.S. will publish solutions FOMC Interest Rate for March, and will be represented by the accompanying statement FOMC. At 18:00 GMT the U.S. will release an economic forecast from the FOMC. At 18:15 GMT the United States will hold a press conference of the Federal Reserve System. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in GDP for the 4th quarter. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will provide the overall balance of trade in goods and the adjusted balance of foreign trade in February, and will announce the change of volume of exports of goods and changes in the volume of imports of goods for February.

12:00

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3040/50, $1.3010, $1.2990-000, $1.2960/70, $1.2940

Bids $1.2840, $1.2825/20, $1.2800

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5250/60, $1.5220/35, $1.5200, $1.5180, $1.5160

Bids $1.5010/00, $1.4985/80, $1.4965/50, $1.4925/20

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0520/30, $1.0490/00, $1.0455/60, $1.0450, $1.0415/20, $1.0405/10

Bids $1.0355/50, $1.0340/30, $1.0310/00, $1.0285/80

EUR/JPY

Offers Y124.20, Y124.00, Y123.65/70, Y123.45/50

Bids Y122.60/50, Y122.25/20, Y122.10/00, Y121.80, Y121.65/60, Y121.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y96.45/50, Y96.25/30, Y96.00, Y95.70/75, Y95.45/50

Bids Y94.85/80, Y94.50, Y94.40/30

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8695/700, stg0.8680/85, stg0.8650, stg0.8595/600, stg0.8580/85