Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 20-04-2017

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) April 52.4

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index February 0.0%

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) April 53.3 53

07:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) April 57.5 57.1

07:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) April 55.6 55.5

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) April 58.3 58

08:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln February 2.5

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) April 56.2 56

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) April 56 56

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March 1.4% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March 3.7% 3.4%

11:45 United Kingdom MPC Member Saunders Speaks

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m March 0.2% 0.4%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y March 2% 1.8%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y March 1.7%

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) April 53.3 53.5

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) April 52.8 53

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales March 5.48 5.6

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count April 683

In April 2017, the DG ECFIN flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in the euro area (by 1.4 points to -3.6) and, to a somewhat lesser extent, in the EU (by 0.8 point to -3.4) compared to March.

EURUSD: 1.0500-10 (EUR 1.42bln) 1.0570-80 (790m) 1.0600 (643m) 1.0650-60 (790m)1.0700-05 (490m) 1.0720-25 (1.4bln) 1.0750-55 (440m) 1.0780 (480m) 1.0800 (410m) 1.0830 (785m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.50-60 (1.4bln) 108.85 (240m) 109.00 (2.5bln) 109.25 (415m) 109.50 (502m) 110.00 (1.1bln)

GBPUSD 1.2500 (GBP 725m) 1.2620 (198m)

EURGBP 0.8500 (EUR 230m)

USDCHF 0.9920 (USD 215m) 0.9975 (240m) 1.0055 (210m) 1.0090-1.0100 (655m)

AUDUSD 0.7450 (475m) 0.7470 (200m) 0.7500 (300m) 0.7590-0.7600 (522m) 0.7660 (743m)

USDCAD 1.3340-50 (USD 545m) 1.3500 (381m)

NZDUSD 0.7025-30 (NZD 257m)

Results from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand, but at a slower pace than last month. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive but fell from their readings in March. The current employment index, however, improved slightly and continues to suggest expanding employment in the manufacturing sector. The survey's future indicators continued to reflect general optimism but retreated from their high readings in the first three months of the year.

The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 32.8 in March to 22.0 this month.

In the week ending April 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 247,250.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0750-60 1.0780 1.0800 1.0830 1.0850

Bids: 1.0720 1.0700 1.0680-85 1.0650 1.0635 1.0620 1.0600

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2850 1.2880 1.2900 1.2920 1.2950-60 1.2975 1.3000

Bids: 1.2800 1.2770-75 1.2760 1.2750 1.2720 1.2700 1.2680 1.2650

EUR/JPY

Offers: 117.00 117.30 117.50 117.80 118.00 118.50

Bids: 116.50 116.30 116.00 115.80-85 115.50 115.20 115.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8385 0.8400 0.8425-30 0.8445-50 0.8480 0.8500-05

Bids: 0.8360 0.8350 0.8335 0.8320 0.8300 0.8280 0.8260 0.8200

USD/JPY

Offers: 109.00 109.20 109.50 109.80 110.00 110.30 110.50

Bids: 108.70 108.50 108.30 108.00 107.80 107.50 107.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7520 0.7530 0.7550 0.7580 0.7600

Bids: 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450 0.7400

• Fillon would beat Le Pen in run-off vote by 57 pct to 43 pct if Fillon made it through to second round

• Macron seen beating Le Pen in run-off vote by 65 pct to

• Sovereign treasury bonds in yuan will set benchmark for companies

• Fx state purchases have limited impact on rouble

• Monetary policy to remain moderately tight to stabilise inflation near 4 pct

• Inflation reached 4.1 pct as of april 17

EURUSD: 1.0500-10 (EUR 1.42bln) 1.0570-80 (790m) 1.0600 (643m) 1.0650-60 (790m)1.0700-05 (490m) 1.0720-25 (1.4bln) 1.0750-55 (440m) 1.0780 (480m) 1.0800 (410m) 1.0830 (785m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.50-60 (1.4bln) 108.85 (240m) 109.00 (2.5bln) 109.25 (415m) 109.50 (502m) 110.00 (1.1bln)

GBPUSD 1.2500 (GBP 725m) 1.2620 (198m)

EURGBP 0.8500 (EUR 230m)

USDCHF 0.9920 (USD 215m) 0.9975 (240m) 1.0055 (210m) 1.0090-1.0100 (655m)

AUDUSD 0.7450 (475m) 0.7470 (200m) 0.7500 (300m) 0.7590-0.7600 (522m) 0.7660 (743m)

USDCAD 1.3340-50 (USD 545m) 1.3500 (381m)

NZDUSD 0.7025-30 (NZD 257m)

• Q1 growth to be somewhat better than q4

• Banks provide credit under guarantee fund at average rate of 14 percent, expects rate to fall

• Aims for credit guarantee fund to reach volume of 180-200 bln lira by end-year

• Says 137.3 bln lira of loans have been provided under credit guarantee fund

• Attitude of new US administration will be key regarding financial regulation

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0846 (1052)

$1.0808 (466)

$1.0785 (177)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0724

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0688 (590)

$1.0651 (504)

$1.0603 (817)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 61508 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (5052);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 63087 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (5169);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3107 (1935)

$1.3009 (1330)

$1.2913 (1039)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2819

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2687 (218)

$1.2590 (1194)

$1.2493 (4601)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 19893 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2252);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 25858 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4601);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.30 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Japan had a merchandise trade surplus of 614.722 billion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said, cited by rttnews.

That was shy of forecasts for a surplus of 605.6 billion yen following the upwardly revised 813.5 billion yen surplus in February (originally 813.389 billion yen).

Exports climbed 12.0 percent on year to 7.229 trillion yen, beating forecasts for an increase of 6.2 percent following the 11.3 percent jump in the previous month.

Imports added an annual 15.8 percent to 6.614 trillion yen versus expectations for a gain of 10.2 percent after adding just 1.2 percent a month earlier.

The consumers price index (CPI) increased 2.2 percent in the year to the March 2017 quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is the highest annual increase since the September 2011 quarter, the last quarter affected by the rise in GST from 12.5 to 15 percent.

"Rising petrol prices along with the annual rise in cigarette and tobacco tax lifted inflation," prices senior manager Jason Attewell said. "Petrol prices in New Zealand are closely linked to global oil prices, and cigarettes and tobacco taxes rise in the March quarter each year".

Housing-related prices continued to increase, up 3.3 percent in the March 2017 year. Prices increased for newly built houses, excluding land (up 6.7 percent), and for housing rentals (up 2.3 percent). Newly built houses, excluding land, were up 8.0 percent in Auckland and 3.6 percent in Christchurch.

Transport prices (up 3.5 percent) made the second largest upward contribution, with petrol (up 12 percent) partially offset by falls in other private transport services (vehicle relicensing fees).

Prices fell for broadband and cellphone plans, as well as handsets. Improvements to speed and data capacity improved the quality of the service, which is reflected as a price fall.

Excluding petrol, and cigarettes and tobacco, the CPI showed a 1.5 percent increase.

In March 2017 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 3.1% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. Also in February 2017 the annual rate of change all over had been 3.1%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office.

Compared with the preceding month February 2017 the overall index did not change in March 2017 (0.2% in February and 0.7% in January).

In March 2017 the price indices of all main industrial groups rose compared with March 2016: Energy prices increased by 4.5%, though prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of petroleum products increased by 16.2%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 7.2%. Prices of intermediate goods rose by 3.9%, prices of non-durable consumer goods by 2.7%. Prices of durable consumer goods increased by 1.2% and prices of capital goods by 1.0%.