Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 21-02-2013

EUR/USD $1.3310, $1.3335, $1.3340, $1.3345, $1.3350, $1.3365, $1.3475

USD/JPY Y94.00

EUR/JPY Y124.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0310, $1.0415

Data

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 1.00 1.74 2.13

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 42.9 43.9 43.6

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) February 43.6 44.5 42.7

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 49.8 50.4 50.1

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) February 55.7 55.5 54.1

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 47.9 48.4 47.8

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) February 48.6 49.2 47.3

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 13.2 -11.3 -9.8

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -20 -16 -14

The euro fell against the dollar, dropping below the level at the same $ 1.32 for the first time in six weeks after a report showed that the decline in the private sector continued in the euro zone this month, interrupted in this series increases, which lasted for the previous three months . According to the report, the composite index, which assesses activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector fell in February to the level of 47.3, up from 48.6 in January. Note that according to the average forecast value of this indicator was increased to the level of 49. At the same time, the data showed that the index of business activity in the services sector fell to a level 47.3, compared to 48.6 in January, as well as Experts rate at around 49.2. Meanwhile, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 from 47.9 in January.

The single currency also fell against the yen on speculation the European Central Bank will keep borrowing costs lower over time to help stimulate the recovery.

The dollar index rose to five-month high before the release of the U.S. leading indicators and regional indicators of production, which can add evidence that the economy is gaining momentum.

The yen rose against all 16 major currencies, after the media reported that the former deputy head of the Bank of Japan Iwata and Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, considered as prime candidates for the post of head of the central bank. Note also that Iwata stands for foreign purchases of bonds.

The pound fell to its lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar after the minutes of the FOMC meeting made clear, a number of Fed officials favored asset repurchase rate adjustments as new data with the possibility of a more rapid cessation of incentive programs than assumed the current legal Installation of U.S. securities. However, despite these concerns, the pound was able to recover all their lost during today's trading position, setting all new session high.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair decreased by setting the minimum at $ 1.3165

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.5270

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y92.77, and is now trading at Y93.16

At 13:30 GMT the United States will be released consumer price index, consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted), the main consumer price index for January. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in February. At 15:00 GMT the United States will report on the volume of sales in the secondary market in January, and will be published by the manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed in February. At 22:30 GMT head of the Reserve Bank of Australia makes a speech.

EUR/USD

Orders $1.3250/55, $1.3230, $1.3215/20

Bids $1.3150/40, $1.3120/15, $1.3100

GBP/USD

Orders $1.5300, $1.5280/85, $1.5265/70, $1.5250

Bids $1.5200, $1.5185/80, $1.5170, $1.5120, $1.5100, $1.5085/80

AUD/USD

Orders $1.0350, $1.0320/30, $1.0300, $1.0280

Bids $1.0215, $1.0210/00, $1.0180/75, $1.0150, $1.0120, $1.0110/00

EUR/JPY

Orders Y124.50, Y124.35/40, Y124.00, Y123.75/80

Bids Y122.55/50, Y122.00, Y121.50, Y121.00

USD/JPY

Orders Y94.40, Y94.20/30, Y93.95/00, Y93.50/55

Bids Y93.00, Y92.90, Y92.80/75, Y92.65/60, Y92.50

EUR/GBP

Orders stg0.8850, stg0.8780, stg0.8700/10

Bids stg0.8655/45, stg0.8630/25, stg0.8610/00

EUR/USD $1.3310, $1.3335, $1.3340, $1.3345, $1.3350, $1.3365, $1.3475

USD/JPY Y94.00

EUR/JPY Y124.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0310, $1.0415

AUD/JPY Y96.50

The pound fell to a 15-month low against the euro after the Bank of England minutes showed that some officials voted to expand the program to buy assets at a meeting this month. Sterling fell to its lowest level since June against the dollar after reports showed that the policy is also considered cutting interest rates. Note that Mervyn King, Paul Fisher and David Miles in a vote called for increased bond purchase program by 25 billion pounds ($ 38.3 billion) to 400 billion pounds, while the remaining six members of the Monetary Policy Committee were against the increase. Also exerted pressure on the currency presented data that showed that, according to estimates of the International Labour Organization, the number of unemployed for three months (December) increased by 10,000, reaching with 2.5 million people, amid the unemployment rate rose to mark of 7.8%, compared to 7.7% three months earlier (before November). At the same time, the Office for National Statistics reported that the number of unemployed in the same period decreased by 14 thousand. The ONS also said that the number of employed people increased by 154,000 (in the three months to December), while still achieving the level of 29.730 million, which is the highest figure since the introduction of registration in 1971. In addition, the Office for National Statistics said the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in January by 12,500 to 1.54 million,

The New Zealand dollar fell against 16 major peers after the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Wheeler said the bank is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. Meanwhile, he added that the official interest rate will also be used if necessary. In addition, it was announced that the central bank is also considering the possibility of macro tools that can support monetary policy. At the same time, Graham Wheeler acknowledged that the New Zealand dollar was "significantly overvalued" in terms of the economic base, a negative effect on some of the production sectors.

21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January +0.4% -1.5%

The Dollar Index rose to a three- month high before the release of U.S. leading indicators and a regional manufacturing gauge that may add to evidence a recovery in the world’s largest economy is gathering pace. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose 0.2 percent in January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It would be a second month of gains in the gauge, which consists of data including work hours of manufacturers and initial jobless claims. A Fed report on manufacturing in the Philadelphia area is projected to show a rebound, according to another poll.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed several policy makers advocated varying the pace of bond purchases. Some officials on the Federal Open Market Committee “emphasized that the committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases,” according to the minutes of the FOMC’s Jan. 29-30 meeting released yesterday in Washington. The U.S. central bank buys about $85 billion of government and mortgage securities a month to support growth, in the third round of so-called quantitative easing that tends to debase the dollar.

The euro slid for a second day before data that economists say will show manufacturing and services industries shrank in the currency bloc. In Europe, manufacturing and services industries probably contracted in February, albeit by less than the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The manufacturing purchasing managers index is projected to be 48.5 compared with 47.9 in January, and the services PMI may come in at 49.0 from 48.6 a month earlier. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Australia’s dollar dropped as Asian stocks declined, sapping demand for higher-yielding assets, and the British pound fell to a 2 1/2-year low.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.3250.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.5150.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of Y93.60.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3283 -0,78%

GBP/USD $1,5232 -1,26%

USD/CHF Chf0,9269 +0,49%

USD/JPY Y93,55 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y124,24 -0,82%

GBP/JPY Y142,50 -1,26%

AUD/USD $1,0255 -0,98%

NZD/USD $0,8356 -1,33%

USD/CAD C$1,0165 +0,52%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 1.00 1.74

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 42.9 43.9

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) February 43.6 44.5

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 49.8 50.4

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) February 55.7 55.5

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 47.9 48.4

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) February 48.6 49.2

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 13.2 -11.3

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -20 -16

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 341 361

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m January 0.0% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y January +1.7% +1.7%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m January +0.1% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y January +1.9% +1.8%

14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 55.8 55.6

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators January +0.5% +0.2%

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales January 4.94 4.91

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey February -5.8 0.7

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February +0.6

15:30 Canada Bank of Canada Review Quarter I

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks February