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21.10.2013
18:20
American focus : the euro regained previously lost ground against the dollar

The dollar declined significantly against the euro, losing the all previously earned a position that has been associated with the release of weak U.S. data .

As it became known , sales of existing homes fell in September - this is an indication that the rise in interest rates during the summer caused a cooling of the housing market.

Sales of existing homes fell 1.9 % in September from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million , reported in the National Association of Realtors. The pace of the previous month was revised down to 5.39 million from 5.48 million previously voiced Nevertheless , the data show that the pace of sales in July and August were the best since 2009. Economists had expected sales rate in September was 5.3 million. In general, the situation in the housing market remains an important driver of economic growth in the U.S.

The latest data showed prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace than in previous months. The average price of an existing home was $ 199,200 , which is 11.7 % more than the year before.

It should also be noted that the pressure on the dollar is rising against the background of the fact that many market participants are waiting for the publication of data on the number of jobs outside agriculture on Tuesday, as well as official data on unemployment in the United States . It is expected that the figure will be released above the acceptable threshold of 6.5 % of the Federal Reserve System, and therefore Fed QE3 will continue the program in its entirety. October 22 , after the delay associated with the shutdown in the United States, will be published by the government's employment report . According to the median forecast of analysts in the U.S. economy in the past month has been created 180 thousand jobs , higher than the August figure of 169 thousand, however , it is expected that the official unemployment rate was 7.3 %.

The pound fell slightly against the U.S. dollar , in response , so that the report on the UK from Markit

As we learned from the survey Markit Economics, the UK household finances remain under pressure in October , but the assessment of the employment situation has improved slightly .

The seasonally adjusted index of household finances , which measures the overall presentation of the financial well-being of households , was 41 in October and has remained in negative territory. The index values ​​below 50 indicate deterioration , while those above 50 indicate improvement.

The October reading was slightly better than the values ​​of 40.8 in September , and was above the long-term average at 37.9 .

Expectations of households of their personal finances over the next twelve months have been pessimistic in October. The relevant sub-index was 44.2 , and remained broadly unchanged since September.

Meanwhile , the survey found that the trends in the labor market has improved during October . Indicator of activity in the workplace remained above the neutral mark the ninth consecutive month.

The Japanese yen has lost some ground against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of data on the trade deficit of the country. Today in Tokyo, the Ministry of Finance reported that in September, imports exceeded exports by 932.1 billion yen ($ 9.5 billion ) . This value was higher than previously expected by analysts to increase 918.6 billion in additional pressure on the Japanese currency had words of Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda , who promised to continue loose monetary policy to achieve stable inflation.

In addition , another report showed that the index of leading indicators fell in August to the level of 106.8 points compared to 107.9 points in July . Recall that the preliminary value of the index for August was at 106.5 points.

Meanwhile, the data showed that the index of coincident economic indicators, which is designed to assess the current economic activity , fell in August to reach 107.6 points, compared with 107.7 points in July . Note that the latter result confirmed the preliminary estimates.

We also learned that the lagging index , which measures past performance of the economy, has moved up to August to the level of 114.4 points, compared with 113.1 points in July. We add that according to initial estimates , the index was at 112.8 points.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October +4.0 (forecast +2.8)
14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , September 5.29 (forecast 5.31)
13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3530, $1.3535, $1.3550, $1.3555, $1.3625, $1.3640, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.25, Y97.60, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50, Y98.60

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6225

AUD/USD $0.9525, $0.9550, $0.9600, $0.9625, $0.9645, $0.9700

NZD/USD $0.8395, $0.8575, $0.8675

USD/CAD C$1.0290

12:30
Canada: Wholesale Sales, m/m, August +0.5% (forecast +0.6%)
12:00
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3765, $1.3745/50, $1.3720, $1.3700

Bids $1.3655/50, $1.3625/15, $1.3605/595, $1.3580


GBP/USD

Offers $1.6320/30, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6250/60, $1.6220/25, $1.6200

Bids $1.6150, $1.6140, $1.6125/20, $1.6100, $1.6060/50


AUD/USD

Offers $0.9750, $0.9725/30, $0.9700, $0.9675/80

Bids $0.9625/20, $0.9605/00, $0.9580, $0.9560/50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520/30, stg0.8510, stg0.8490/500, stg0.8465/70

Bids stg0.8445/40, stg0.8425/15, stg0.8400, stg0.8370/65


EUR/JPY

Offers Y135.00, Y134.80, Y134.50

Bids Y133.55/50, Y133.20, Y133.00


USD/JPY

Offers Y98.80, Y98.50, Y98.20

Bids Y97.50, Y97.35, Y97.20, Y97.10/00


09:24
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3530, $1.3535, $1.3550, $1.3555, $1.3625, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.25, Y97.60, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50, Y98.60

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6225

AUD/USD $0.9525, $0.9550, $0.9600, $0.9625, $0.9645, $0.9700

NZD/USD $0.8395, $0.8575, $0.8675

06:20
Asian session: The yen fell


The yen fell against all of its 16 major peers after Japan posted a bigger-than-estimated trade deficit and gains in stocks reduced demand for haven assets. In Japan, imports exceeded exports by 932.1 billion yen ($9.5 billion) in September, the finance ministry said in Tokyo today. That was more than the 918.6 billion trade gap expected by economists in a Bloomberg News survey and compared with a revised 962.8 billion deficit in August.

Japan’s currency weakened as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to continue easing to achieve stable inflation.

The dollar traded near the weakest since February against major counterparts before data forecast to show U.S. unemployment held above the threshold for the Federal Reserve to start tapering stimulus. Fed policy makers had pledged since December they won’t consider raising the interest rate as long as the unemployment rate exceeds 6.5 percent. The jobless rate held at 7.3 percent last month, economists in a Bloomberg poll projected before the Labor Department data on Oct. 22. The release was postponed from Oct. 4 because of the partial government shutdown. Economists in a separate Bloomberg survey estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 180,000 workers last month.

The 17-nation euro was 0.2 percent from the strongest in more than eight months ahead of a report this week which may show the region’s consumer confidence was the highest since July 2011. In Europe, an index of consumer sentiment probably rose to minus 14.5 this month, the highest since July 2011, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the European Commission data on Oct. 23.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3665

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in a range of $ 1.6150-70

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y98.10


Monday is a fairly quiet data session on both sides of the Atlantic, as the markets prepare for the catch-up up US data later in the week. The main US release is scheduled for Tuesday at 1230GMT, when the September jobs data will finally be published. Early European data sees the release of the German September PPI numbers at 0600GMT. Analysts are looking for an on month fall of 0.7% on the month. At 0800GMT, the Italian August industrial orders numbers will cross the wires. Economists are looking for a modest improvement of July's -2.2%.


06:01
Germany: Producer Price Index (MoM), September +0.3% (forecast +0.1%)
06:01
Germany: Producer Price Index (YoY), September -0.5% (forecast -0.7%)
05:00
Schedule for today, Monday, Oct 21’2013:

00:30 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m August +0.5% +0.3% +0.3%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September -0.1% +0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) September -0.5% -0.7%

10:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report October

12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m August +1.5% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales September 5.48 5.31

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories October +6.8 +2.8


04:32
Japan: All Industry Activity Index, m/m, August +0.3% (forecast +0.3%)

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