Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 23-01-2018

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2297 +0,30%

GBP/USD $1,3999 +0,08%

USD/CHF Chf0,95762 -0,45%

USD/JPY Y110,28 -0,58%

EUR/JPY Y135,63 -0,29%

GBP/JPY Y154,384 -0,50%

AUD/USD $0,7999 -0,22%

NZD/USD $0,7352 +0,35%

USD/CAD C$1,24187 -0,19%

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) January 54.0 53.8

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Finally) November 106.5 108.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Finally) November 116.4 118.1

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) January 58.8 58.7

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) January 59.1 58.9

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) January 55.8 55.6

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) January 63.3 63.0

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) January 60.6 60.6

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) January 56.6 56.4

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November 2.3% 2.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November 2.5% 2.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December 5.9 5.4

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 4.3% 4.3%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m November 0.5% 0.4%

14:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) January 55.1 55.0

14:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) January 53.7 54

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales December 5.81 5.7

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January -6.861 -1.3

21:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter IV 1.9% 1.9%

21:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter IV 0.5% 0.4%

On 4 hour time frame chart, we can see that AUD/JPY has formed a chart pattern (double top) which the price has broken the neckline already.

Besides that, the price has broken an upside trend.

Therefore, we can expect a further bearish movement in this pair.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed 3.0 points in January 2018, currently standing at 20.4 points. The indicator thus still remains slightly below the long-term average of 23.7 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany increased by 5.9 points, with the corresponding indicator currently standing at 95.2 points.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £6.6 billion to £50.0 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to December 2017), compared with the same period in 2016; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since 2007.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) will be £49.9 billion during the financial year ending March 2018, an increase of £3.9 billion on the outturn net borrowing in the financial year ending March 2017.

• Q4 loan demand rose in all categories

• Banks expect net demand to rise for corporate loans, mortgages, consumer credit in q1

• Banks see easing credit standards for all types of loans in q1

• Q4 credit standards were unchanged for corporates, consumer credit; eased for mortgages

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2344 (4131)

$1.2320 (5520)

$1.2302 (3098)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2247

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2187 (2067)

$1.2156 (1702)

$1.2120 (2085)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 115452 contracts (according to data from January, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (7086);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4071 (2265)

$1.4055 (1642)

$1.4034 (2994)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3968

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3894 (304)

$1.3867 (226)

$1.3836 (456)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 37676 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3482);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 32649 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3057);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.81 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Need to maintain strong monetary easing

• Still some distance to meeting inflation target

• See no need to change etf purchases

• No need to change joint statement between govt, BoJ

• No need to change 2 pct price target

• Will maintain qqe with yield curve control for as long as needed to stably hit 2 pct inflation

• Risks to economy roughly balanced

• Board member Kataoka says BoJ should buy jgbs so yields of bonds with maturities of 10 years or longer fall broadly

• Inflation likely to continue increasing towards 2 pct

• Momentum for hitting 2 pct inflation is maintained but lacks strength

• Cpi accelerating but moves remain weak

• Inflation expectations and job market pose both upside, downside risks

• Japan's economy expected to expand moderately