Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 24-04-2018

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.0 percent above the revised February rate of 667,000 and is 8.8 percent

above the March 2017 estimate of 638,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2018 was $337,200. The average sales price was $369,900.

U.S. house prices rose in February, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.8 percent increase in January was revised upward to 0.9 percent.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From February 2017 to February 2018, house prices were up 7.2 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from January 2018 to February 2018 ranged from 0.1 percent in the West North Central division to +1.6 percent in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.8 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +10.3 percent in the Pacific division.

The survey of 356 manufacturers revealed that optimism about general business conditions deteriorated marginally, while domestic orders were largely unchanged on the quarter. Output growth slowed somewhat, but remained well above the long-run average.

In contrast, optimism regarding export prospects for the year ahead continued to improve at an above-average pace, while export orders growth accelerated at the fastest pace in more than 20 years. Meanwhile, inventories of raw materials rose at the fastest pace since 1977.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £3.5 billion to £42.6 billion in the latest financial year (April 2017 to March 2018), compared with the previous financial year; this is the lowest net borrowing since the financial year ending March 2007.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) for the latest financial year (April 2017 to March 2018) would be £45.2 billion, that is, £2.6 billion more than the provisional estimate of £42.6 billion.

Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,798.0 billion at the end of March 2018, equivalent to 86.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £71.2 billion (or 1.0 percentage point as a ratio of GDP) on March 2017.

High spirits among German businesses have evaporated. The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 102.1 points in April from 103.3 points in March. The indicator for the current business situation fell and expectations also deteriorated. The German economy is slowing down.

In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated for the third consecutive month. Assessments of the current business situation declined but nevertheless remain at a high level. Business expectations dropped to their lowest ebb since August 2016. Capacity utilisation fell by 0.3 percentage points to 87.7 percent. However, it remains above its long-term average of 83.6 percent.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2378 (2331)

$1.2317 (270)

$1.2271 (217)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2213

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2157 (3775)

$1.2122 (2551)

$1.2082 (3227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 77464 contracts (according to data from April, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2650 (4236);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4097 (931)

$1.4067 (644)

$1.4023 (414)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3932

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3878 (1172)

$1.3847 (2091)

$1.3813 (2259)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 22599 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3262);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 24858 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2259);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent in the March quarter 2018, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures reveal. This follows a rise of 0.6 per cent in the December quarter 2017.

The most significant price rises this quarter are secondary education (+3.3%), gas and other household fuels (+6.0%), pharmaceutical products (+5.6%), vegetables (+3.7%) and medical and hospital services (+1.5%). These price rises were partially offset by falls in international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4%), audio, visual and computing media and services (-6.1%) and furniture (-2.8%).

Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said "While the annual CPI rose 1.9 per cent, most East Coast cities have continued to experience annual inflation above 2.0 per cent, due in part to the strength in prices related to Housing and Food. Softer economic conditions in Darwin and Perth have resulted in annual inflation remaining subdued at 1.1 and 0.9 per cent respectively."

• Most important risk to the outlook remains protectionist trade policies

• Statistics on job vacancies a symptom of very strong job market