Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 24-08-2012

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24.08.2012
18:15
American focus: euro recovers

The euro fell against the dollar amid comments from the German Parliament, who said that the Bundestag not want Greece to provide new facilities or extend the time for the fulfillment of its obligations.
Also, the pressure on the euro also had a statement of the ECB that the completion of the plan for the purchase of bonds to wait for a vote on the issue of the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM). Against this background of increased yield of Spanish government bonds.
But the euro rose sharply after market participants have submitted a letter Fed Chairman Bernanke, in which he hinted at the possibility of further stimulus. Also today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she wants that Greece remains in the monetary union, and that Germany is ready to help the Greek government.
Significant impact on the growth in the value of the single currency brought news that the ECB is considering the possibility of establishing a target range for the yield, but the final decision will be known after the meeting on monetary policy, which will be held on September 6
The Australian dollar fell after the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens said that the currency is likely to depreciate if the mining boom is over. He also said that the investment resources of the country will reach its peak "in the next year or two."
The pound fell against the dollar after the release of statistics. GDP data were generally as expected: the indicator was revised to -0.5% q / q (at the level of the average forecast) against preliminary level of -0.7%. In the first quarter a decline of 0.3% q / q. Sales of pounds for the most part these were due to changes in the volume of commercial investments, which were much worse than expected.

14:36
S&P: Still significant challenge to Greek reforms

- Difficult greek econ. environment set to continue

- Deepening greek recession complicates budget strategy

- Greek ratings show downgrade potential if fiscal shortfall

- Greek fiscal shortfalls are likely

14:06
Pierpont: “The durables data give "the typical mixed (and deceiving) signals"
13:00
Belgium: Business Climate, August -11.8 (forecast -10.8)
12:31
U.S.: Durable goods orders ex defense, July +5.7% (forecast -0.4%)
12:31
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation , July -0.4% (forecast +0.5%)
12:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders , July +4.2% (forecast +2.8%)
12:17
European session: the euro fell

 

 

Data:
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (revised) Quarter II -0.3% -0.5% -0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter II -0.2% -0.6% -0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter II +1.9% +2.8% -1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter II +14.8% +3.6% +1.7%

The euro fell for the first time in five days against the dollar as Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras began meetings with his German and French counterparts to ask for more time to meet economic targets.
The common currency pared the biggest weekly gain versus the greenback since February after a German lawmaker said Europe’s largest economy can’t make more money available for Greece. Samaras is meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel today and French President Francois Hollande tomorrow.
Merkel said Germany and France will keep pressure on Greece to overhaul its economy when she meets Samaras, who is seeking more time to fix his debt-ravaged country.
The pound dropped for a second day against the dollar after a government report showed the U.K. economy contracted in the second quarter.
Gross domestic product shrank 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% decline estimated on July 25, the Office for National Statistics said in London.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair declined, reached $1.2500 area.


GBP/USD: the pair showed low in ​$1.5820 area, later rate slightly retreated higher.


USD/JPY: the pair remained within yesterday's range.



US data starts at 1230GMT with durable goods orders.

11:33
Greece Samaras: “Economic recovery is critical to achieving goals”

 

Greece working to reduce budget deficit, restore trust;

held especially constructive talks with Merkel;

Greece will meet its obligations;

new Greek coalition will show results very soon.

11:33
Greece Samaras: “Economic recovery is critical to achieving goals”

 

  •  

    Greece working to reduce budget deficit, restore trust;

     

  • held especially constructive talks with Merkel;

  • Greece will meet its obligations;

  • new Greek coalition will show results very soon.

11:28
Germany, Merkel: “Greece is part of the Eurozone”

 

  •  

    Euro is more than a currency;

     

  • Convinced Greek govt committed to solving problems;

  • Expect Greece to implement its commitments;

  • Must wait for Troika Report on Greece.

11:27
Germany, Merkel: “Greece is part of the Eurozone”

 

  •  

    Euro is more than a currency;

     

  • Convinced Greek govt committed to solving problems;

  • Expect Greece to implement its commitments;

  • Must wait for Troika Report on Greece.

11:21
Orders:

 

 

EUR/USD

 

Offers $1.2650, $1.2600, $1.2590, $1.2550/55

Bids $1.2500, $1.2470/50, $1.2430, $1.2415/00

 

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0500, $1.0470/80, $1.0450, $1.0430/35, $1.0420

Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0300, $1.0250

 

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.20, Y79.00, Y78.80

Bids Y78.30/25, Y78.10/00, Y77.90, Y77.65


EUR/JPY

Offers Y99.50, Y99.20, Y99.00, Y98.55/60

Bids Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.75/70, Y97.50

 

09:43
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

 

 

EUR/USD $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2510, $1.2550

 

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.55, Y79.75

GBP/USD $1.5850, $1.5700

USD/CHF Chf0.9700

AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0300, $1.0290

AUD/JPY Y82.00

 

08:32
United Kingdom: Business Investment, y/y, Quarter II +1.7% (forecast +3.6%)
08:31
United Kingdom: Business Investment, q/q, Quarter II -1.5% (forecast +2.8%)
08:31
United Kingdom: GDP, y/y, Quarter II -0.5% (forecast -0.6%)
08:31
United Kingdom: GDP, q/q, Quarter II -0.5% (forecast -0.5%)
08:28
Asian session: the euro fell

 

The euro fell  against the dollar as Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras prepared to meet with his German and French counterparts to ask for more time to meet economic targets.
The common currency pared the biggest weekly gain versus the greenback since February after a German lawmaker said Europe’s largest economy can’t make more money available for Greece. Samaras will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel today and French President Francois Hollande tomorrow. The Australian dollar weakened after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the currency would probably fall if a mining boom ends.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair consolidated in $1.2550 - $1.2570 area. Later the pair fell.


GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair consolidated in $1.5850 - $1.5870 area. Later the pair fell.


USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair slightly stronger, approaching the upper limit of yesterday's range Y78.70.


US data starts at 1230GMT with durable goods orders.

07:34
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa: “High chance Japan will hit +1% CPI after FY13”

  •  

    resolving Europe's problems to take long time;

     

  • adverse effects of high yen bigger than benefits;

  • aware of adverse effects of high yen on Japan;

  • BOJ cannot buy foreign bonds for weakening yen;

  • wouldn't surprise markets on policy decisions.

07:33
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa: “High chance Japan will hit +1% CPI after FY13”

  •  

    resolving Europe's problems to take long time;

     

  • adverse effects of high yen bigger than benefits;

  • aware of adverse effects of high yen on Japan;

  • BOJ cannot buy foreign bonds for weakening yen;

  • wouldn't surprise markets on policy decisions.

05:43
Currencies. Daily history for Aug 23'2012:

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)             

EUR/USD      $1,2563 +0,26%   

GBP/USD      $1,5857 -0,15%   

USD/CHF      Chf0,9556 -0,31%

USD/JPY      Y78,54 -0,01%     

EUR/JPY       Y98,66 +0,24%    

GBP/JPY       Y124,53 -0,16%   

AUD/USD     $1,0438 -0,67%   

NZD/USD      $0,8125 -0,16%   

USD/CAD     C$0,9937 +0,49%

05:03
Schedule for today, Friday, Aug 24’2012:

07:45 Japan          BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks        -                         

08:30 United Kingdom              GDP, q/q (revised)         Quarter II    -0.3% -0.5%

08:30 United Kingdom              GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter II    -0.2% -0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom              Business Investment, q/q        Quarter II    +1.9%         +2.8%        

08:30 United Kingdom              Business Investment, y/y         Quarter II    +14.8%       +3.6%        

12:30 U.S.            Durable Goods Orders    July    +1.6%         +2.8%        

12:30 U.S.            Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation      July    -1.1% +0.5%        

12:30 U.S.            Durable goods orders ex defense      July    -1.4% -0.4%

13:00 Belgium                Business Climate  August         -11.3  -10.8

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