Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 24-09-2013

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24.09.2013

18:20

American focus : the euro fell slightly against the dollar

The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of weak data on Germany, as well as comments submitted today ECB officials , according to which it was announced that the ECB is willing to further reduce interest rates.

Note that German business confidence continued to improve in September, but remains slightly below economists' expectations . This became known as a survey institute Ifo. Business climate index rose to 107.7 in September from a revised 107.6 in August. Economists' expectations were at the level of 108.4 .

Ifo business expectations index rose to 104.2 in September from 103.3 in the previous month . According to forecasts of the index was to grow to 104. The current conditions index fell slightly to 111.4 from 112 in August. Economists had forecast an increase to 112.6 .

Meanwhile, we add that investors are very sensitive to economic data from the eurozone after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank is ready to provide cheap long-term loans to keep money market rates of growth. ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny on Tuesday confirmed what Draghi , saying it was too early to stop the use of anti-crisis measures.

However, it is worth noting that the euro could still recover some of the lost ground , which helped the U.S. data , which showed that consumer confidence Conference Board, which increased slightly in August , fell in September. Index is currently 79.7 (1985 = 100 ) compared to 81.8 in August. The current conditions index rose to 73.2 from 70.9 . The expectations index fell to 84.1 from 89.0 last month.

The British pound shows a decline against the dollar , although it withdrew from the values which have helped the weak data on U.S. consumer confidence . Note that initially the pressure on the currency was data on mortgage lending in the UK. Approved applications for mortgage loans increased in August, both in quantity and in value terms , data showed on Tuesday, the British Bankers Association (BBA). The number of mortgages approved for house purchase rose to 38,228 - the highest level since 2009 - up from 37,428 a month ago. But, at the same time , the August level was below the consensus - the forecast of 38650 . In value terms, mortgage applications to purchase homes rose to 6 billion British pounds from 5.8 billion pounds in July. In addition , the data showed that the level of unsecured borrowing rose by 0.3 percent compared with a year earlier. As part of the annual growth of credit cards was 6.7 percent , surpassing the personal loans and overdrafts , which grew by 5.1 percent.

At the same time, in a speech today, David Miles , a member of the Bank of England's MPC , said that , despite the fact that the recent improvement in economic data give reason for optimism , the weakness of the economy, continuing for several years, meaning that people should not wait for that monetary policy will quickly return to normal , " Given that inflationary pressures will develop in the right direction , the tightening of monetary policy will not be as long as the recovery does not gain momentum to significantly reduce unemployment ."

14:00

U.S.: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September 0 (forecast 17)

14:00

U.S.: Consumer confidence , September 79.7 (forecast 79.9)

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3350, $1.3360, $1.3500, $1.3600

USD/JPY Y97.65, Y98.70, Y98.90, Y99.00, Y99.40, Y100.00, Y100.50

AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9330, $0.9430, $0.9450, $0.9500

NZD/USD $0.8350

USD/CAD Cad1.0290

EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

EUR/GBP stg0.8410, stg0.8430

GBP/JPY Y159.00

AUD/JPU Y91.00, Y92.10, Y93.00

USD/CHF Chf0.9260

EUR/SEK Sek8.6180