Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 28-01-2019

• Uncertainties Relating to Geopolitics, Protectionism Weighing on Sentiment

• ECB Stands Ready to Adjust All Its Instruments, as Appropriate

• Incoming Information Has Continued to Be Weaker Than Expected

• Sure He Will Want To Make Sure A Wide Range Of Views Are Considered

• The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 1.1 basis points to 2.762%, while the 2-year note yield also rose 1.1 basis points to 2.611%. The 30-year bond yield was up 0.9 basis point to 3.070%, according to Tradeweb data. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

EUR/USD will likely continue to trade between 1.13 and 1.15 in the near term, says UniCredit, as concerns about the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy offset eurozone economic weakness, limiting dollar gains and euro losses. At its Wednesday meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to reaffirm "patience on rates and its data dependency," even as U.S. 4Q gross domestic product data the same day should highlight a stronger U.S. economy. On Friday, data revealing weaker eurozone inflation and slower U.S. net job creation "will probably offset each other, likely contributing to prolonging the ongoing EUR/USD deadlock," UniCredit says - via WSJ.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.1% in December 2018 from 3.7% in November, averaging 3.9% in the three months up to December. The components of M3 showed the following developments.

The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 6.6% in December, compared with 6.7% in November.

The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) was -0.8% in December, compared with -1.0% in November. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) increased to 0.6% in December from -5.8% in November.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1514 (3527)

$1.1494 (650)

$1.1474 (551)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1407

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1368 (4128)

$1.1331 (4452)

$1.1289 (2604)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 70754 contracts (according to data from January, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4512);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3296 (1433)

$1.3271 (1948)

$1.3246 (1208)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3194

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3068 (396)

$1.2999 (368)

$1.2960 (556)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 23381 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1948);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 26617 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2016);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.