Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 28-02-2013

Eurocoin indicator, a measure of economic climate in the euro area, rose for a third consecutive month in February to its highest level in eight months, survey data from the Bank of Italy and the think tank CEPR showed Thursday.

The eurocoin indicator, designed to reflect the current economic situation in the Eurozone, climbed to -0.20 from January's -0.23. The score is the highest since June last year.

The modest improvement is ascribable chiefly to the favorable results of the surveys on industrial firms' confidence, the report said.

Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly increased at a faster rate in the month of February, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago on Thursday, with the business barometer rising to its highest level since March of 2012.

The report said the Chicago business barometer rose to 56.8 in February from 55.6 in January, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in business activity. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the barometer to edge down to 54.1.

Germany's EU harmonized inflation slowed less than economists expected in February, latest data showed Thursday.

Inflation as per the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) dropped to 1.8 percent in February from 1.9 percent in January, preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed. Economists had forecast a faster deceleration to 1.7 percent.

On a monthly basis, the HICP increased 0.8 percent in January, faster than the 0.7 percent gain economists had forecast.

At the same time, the consumer price index increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February, after rising 1.7 percent in January. Economists had forecast the inflation rate to remain unchanged.

Compared to January, the consumer price index moved up 0.6 percent in February, while economists were looking for a 0.7 percent gain, data showed.

While fourth quarter U.S. GDP data was revised to show economic growth compared to the previously reported contraction, the pace of growth fell well short of economist estimates.

A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday said GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the 0.1 percent drop that was originally reported.

Economists had been expecting a more substantial upward revision, with the consensus estimate calling for the revised report to show 0.5 percent growth.

In an upbeat sign for the job market, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by much more than anticipated in the week ended February 23rd.

The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 344,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 366,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 360,000 from the 362,000 originally reported for the previous week.

EUR/USD $1.2985, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3160, $1.3170, $1.3190, $1.3250, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y91.25, Y91.40, Y91.50, Y92.00, Y93.00

EUR/JPY Y120.00, Y120.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9235, Chf0.9270

AUD/USD $1.0125, $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0235, $1.0250

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2400

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV +0.6% 0.0% +0.2%

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV +1.2% +0.9% +1.4%

07:45 France Consumer spending January +0.2% -0.1% -0.8%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y January -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change February -16 -5 -3

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. February 6.8% 6.8% 6.9%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI January +0.4% -0.1% -0.1%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) January +2.0% +2.0% +2.0%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y January +1.5% +1.5% +1.3%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) February -0.5% +0.7% +0.6%

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) February +1.7% +1.7% +1.5

Euro fluctuates against the U.S. dollar amid mixed macroeconomic data and ongoing uncertainty in Italy.

Pressure on the euro was data on the labor market in Germany, according to which the number of unemployed in Germany in February rose to 3.156 million people, the highest level since March 2011, against 3.138 million in January.

A separate report showed that the annualized net Eurozone CPI rose 1.3% in January against 1.5% in December, according to Eurostat. According to forecasts of expected value unchanged. In monthly terms, CPI fell by 1% in January against 0.4% in December. Annual CPI rose 2% from 2.2% previously. Both results coincided with forecasts. In February, a preliminary index of consumer prices in Germany rose 0.6% m / m and 1.5% y / y vs. +0.7% and +1.6% respectively.

Euro retreated from session lows against the background of the ECB representative Novotny that "the dollar exchange rate against the euro is in the historic range, there is no reason for the intervention of nervousness." Nowotny also said that the economic situation has markedly improved compared to what it was a year ago.

Yen remains under pressure after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe today nominated to head the Central Bank Harika Kuroda, currently headed by the Asian Development Bank. In an interview on February 11, Kuroda said he was in favor of additional incentive programs this year, and noted that the central bank has "significant opportunities for this."

The focus of market participants out of the revised U.S. GDP data for the 4th quarter of 2012. Analysts predict that the U.S. economy will grow by 0.5%. Thus, GDP growth slowed down compared to GDP growth of 3.1% in the third quarter. Also today, a report will be published by U.S. Department of Labor on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits. According to the median estimate of economists, the number of citizens who first applied for unemployment benefits last week, dropped to 360 thousand from 362 thousand

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.3095 and then recovered in the area of ​​$ 1.3130

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a new high of $ 1.5221

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of Y92.00-50

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the balance of the current account balance of payments for the 4th quarter and the index of commodity prices for January. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will increase GDP by the specified data, the GDP price index, the index of personal consumption expenditures, the main index of personal consumption expenditures for the 4th quarter, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, and at 14:45 GMT will be published on the Chicago PMI index for February. In Japan, 23:30 GMT will come changes in the volume level of household spending in January, the index of consumer prices in Tokyo, including excluding prices for fresh food, as well as excluding prices for food and energy in February, the consumer price index, including excluding prices for fresh food, as well as prices excluding food and energy prices in January, at 23:50 GMT will change in the volume of capital expenditure, excluding spending on software for the 4th quarter.

Unemployment in Germany declined unexpectedly in February and for a third consecutive month, suggesting that the economy has started to recover in the first months of 2013 after a contraction in the final quarter of 2012.

The number of unemployed declined by 3,000 in February from the previous month to 2.917 million, the Federal Labor Agency said Thursday. This was contrary to expectations for no change. In January, unemployment fell by a revised 14,000.

The jobless rate held steady at 6.9 percent for a fourth consecutive month in February, above the consensus forecast of 6.8 percent.

The Federal Statistical Office said earlier today that the unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged at 5.3 percent on an adjusted basis in January. On the other hand, the unadjusted jobless rate rose to 5.9 percent in January from 5.3 percent in December, according to the statistical office.

EUR/USD $1.2985, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3160, $1.3170, $1.3190, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y91.25, Y91.40, Y91.50, Y92.00, Y93.00

EUR/JPY Y120.00, Y120.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9235, Chf0.9270

AUD/USD $1.0125, $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250

The euro rose to a seven-week low against the dollar, as investors increased their bets that the European Central Bank will intervene in the situation to limit losses from so-called "peripheral bonds." Note also that the yield on the bond markets of Italy and Spain nearly grown, and the Italian banking stocks suffered heavy losses. As follows from the recent comments, a former prime country Berlusconi ruled out an alliance with the center-left Party of Monti.

The yen rose against all major currencies, as many investors have begun to use this currency as a safe-haven.

The dollar index fluctuated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy will continue to recover in 2013, but the situation on the labor market and the economy as a whole is weak, and therefore, further mitigation is necessary. Bernanke's comments indicate that he supports an extension of the Fed's bond purchases by 85 billion dollars. Note also that Bernanke did not mention about the difference in the views of the commission members FOMC, but touched all the issues that are of concern. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called on the White House and Congress to make adjustments and replace sharp automatic spending cuts, known as sequestration. In the view of the Fed automatic spending cuts, which are expected to come into force on Friday, in order to reduce the deficit can affect the pace of economic recovery. Bernanke believes that the gradual reduction of costs in the short term will not remove completely fiscal risks. However, Bernanke believes in the long-term effect will be more significant.

Swiss franc rose to a six-week high against the euro on speculation that Italy will need a second vote after the inconclusive election results, which immediately increased the demand for the relative safety of the franc.

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence December 22.7 39.4

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m January +6.2% +4.2%

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence February -26 -26 -26

00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter IV +2.8% +1.1% -1.2%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m January +0.4% +0.3% +0.2%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y January +3.6% +3.7% +3.6%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y January +10.0% +8.9% +5.0%

The yen remained lower after a two- day drop as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda to be the next Bank of Japan governor, raising the prospects for more stimulus. Kuroda said in a Feb. 11 interview he favors additional stimulus this year, and the central bank has “really substantial room for monetary easing.” Japan’s currency held declines versus most major peers after Abe also named Kikuo Iwata, an economics professor, and BOJ official Hiroshi Nakaso as deputy governor candidates.

The greenback was set to complete a monthly gain against most main counterparts before data that may show the U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter rather than contracted. The greenback may extend monthly gains today with a Commerce Department report estimated to show gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with the preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent contraction, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Recent U.S. data has showed a narrower trade deficit, more construction spending and a pickup in business investment.

Australia’s dollar rallied after a report showed companies will continue to invest into next year, lessening the chance of interest-rate cuts. In Australia, companies forecast they will spend A$152.5 billion ($156.7 billion) in 2013-14, compared with an estimated A$168.2 billion in 2012-2013, the Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney. Fourth-quarter capital spending fell 1.2 percent from the previous three-month period, when it rose a revised 1.1 percent. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 1 percent increase.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3130-60.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5155-75.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y92.15-65.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3138 +0,59%

GBP/USD $1,5156 +0,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,9294 -0,25%

USD/JPY Y92,23 +0,28%

EUR/JPY Y121,13 +0,83%

GBP/JPY Y139,80 +0,52%

AUD/USD $1,0233 +0,06%

NZD/USD $0,8275 +0,34%

USD/CAD C$1,0230 -0,28%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence December 22.7

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m January +6.2%

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence February -26 -26

00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter IV +2.8% +1.1%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m January +0.4% +0.3%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y January +3.6% +3.7%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y January +10.0% +8.9%

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV +0.6% 0.0%

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV +1.4% +0.9%

07:45 France Consumer spending January 0.0% -0.1%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y January -0.1% 0.0%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change February -16 -5

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. February 6.8% 6.8%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI January +0.4% -0.1%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) January +2.0% +2.0%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y January +1.5% +1.5%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) February -0.5% +0.7%

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) February +1.7% +1.7%

13:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m January 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter IV -18.9 -16.3

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index January -2.0% +1.1%

13:30 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator Quarter IV +2.2% +2.3%

13:30 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index, y/y Quarter IV +0.9% +0.9%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 362 361

13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter IV -0.1% +0.5%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index February 55.6 54.1

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index February 40.2

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y January -0.7% +0.5%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y February -0.6% -0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y February -0.5% -0.5%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y January -0.1% -0.2%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y January -0.2% -0.2%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate January 4.2% 4.2%

23:50 Japan Capital Spending Quarter IV +2.2% -7.0%