Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 28-10-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2732 +0,28%

GBP/USD $1,6129 +0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,9470 -0,25%

USD/JPY Y108,13 +0,26%

EUR/JPY Y137,68 +0,54%

GBP/JPY Y174,4 +0,35%

AUD/USD $0,8850 +0,56%

NZD/USD $0,7920 +0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,1167 -0,73%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence October 13.4

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln September 3.2 2.8

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals September 64 63

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m September +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index September -2.2% +1.5%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories October +7.1

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

18:00 U.S. FOMC QE Decision 15 0

18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3.50% 3.50%

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders, but rebounded after the better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence. The U.S. durable goods orders declined 1.3% in September, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, after a 18.3% drop in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% increase.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding transportation fell 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.5% gain, after a 0.4% rise in August. August's figure was revised up from a 18.4% decrease.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding defence decreased 1.5% in September, after a revised 19.1% fall in August.

The U.S. consumer confidence index jumped to 94.5 in October from 89.0 in September; exceeding expectations for an increase to 87.4. That was the highest level since October 2007.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index increased by 5.6% in August, missing expectations for a 5.7% rise, after a 6.7% gain in July.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The New Zealand dollar traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

Market participants are awaiting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's and Fed' interest rate decision on Wednesday. They expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.50%, and the Fed will end its bond-buying program.

Investors also expects new signs for further monetary policy.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from Australia.

Market participants are awaiting the Fed' interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales in Japan jumped 2.3% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.9% increase, after a 1.2% gain in August.

The Conference Board released its U.S. consumer confidence index today. The U.S. consumer confidence index jumped to 94.5 in October from 89.0 in September; exceeding expectations for an increase to 87.4. That was the highest level since October 2007.

Job gains and falling gasoline prices helped to increase consumers' purchasing power.

The Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board Lynn Franco said that "current job market and business conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers' view of the present situation"

EUR/USD: $1.2650(E750mn), $1.2700(E437mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.30($600mn), Y107.40-50($432mn), Y108.00($1.27bn)

NZD/USD: $0.7900(NZ$400mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1200($575mn), C$1.1215-20($500mn), C$1.1350($450mn)

The U.S. Commerce Department released durable goods orders data today. The U.S. durable goods orders declined 1.3% in September, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, after a 18.3% drop in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% increase.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding transportation fell 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.5% gain, after a 0.4% rise in August. August's figure was revised up from a 18.4% decrease.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding defence decreased 1.5% in September, after a revised 19.1% fall in August.

These figures could mean that worries over slowing global growth could have a negative impact on business confidence in the U.S.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders September -18.3% Revised From -18.4% +0.4% -1.3%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation September +0.4% Revised From +0.7% +0.5% -0.2%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense September -19.1% -1.5%

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders. The U.S. durable goods orders declined 1.3% in September, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, after a 18.3% drop in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% increase.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding transportation fell 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.5% gain, after a 0.4% rise in August. August's figure was revised up from a 18.4% decrease.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding defence decreased 1.5% in September, after a revised 19.1% fall in August.

The consumer confidence in the U.S. is expected to rise to 87.4 in October from 86.00 in September.

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.2759

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.6178

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y August +6.7% +5.7%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence October 86.0 87.4

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) September -1.9% +2.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) September -3.3% -2.6%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2845, $1.2800, $1.2740

Bids $1.2665, $1.2610, $1.2580

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6225, $1.6200, $1.6185

Bids $1.6070, $1.6000, $1.5940

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8950, $0.8900, $0.8840/50

Bids $0.8785/80, $0.8755/50, $0.8710/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.00, Y137.80, Y137.45/50

Bids Y136.55/50, Y136.10/00, Y135.80, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y109.00, Y108.50

Bids Y107.55/50, Y107.20, Y107.00

EUR/GBP

Ордера на продажу $0.8000, $0.7940

Bids stg0.7850, $0.6070

EUR/USD: $1.2650(E750mn), $1.2700(E437mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.30($600mn), Y107.40-50($432mn), Y108.00($1.27bn)

NZD/USD: $0.7900(NZ$400mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1200($575mn), C$1.1215-20($500mn), C$1.1350($450mn)

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data weighed on the greenback. Pending home sales in the U.S. rose 0.3% in September, missing expectations for a 1.1% increase, after a 1.0% drop in August.

The U.S. preliminary services purchasing managers' index declined to 57.3 in September from 58.9 in August, missing expectations for a decrease to 58.7.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

Market participants are awaiting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's and Fed' interest rate decision on Wednesday. They expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.50%, and the Fed will end its bond-buying program.

Investors also expects new signs for further monetary policy.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from Australia.

Market participants are awaiting the Fed' interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected retail sales from Japan. Retail sales in Japan jumped 2.3% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.9% increase, after a 1.2% gain in August.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders September -18.4% Revised From -18.2% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation September +0.4% Revised From +0.7% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense September -19.0%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y August +6.7% +5.7%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence October 86.0 87.4

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) September -1.9% +2.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) September -3.3% -2.6%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2838 (3301)

$1.2806 (3526)

$1.2760 (1666)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2702

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2656 (2173)

$1.2602 (2380)

$1.2528 (4487)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 58051 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike pric $1,2900 (7038);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 59566 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6621);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 27

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6401 (1510)

$1.6302 (1779)

$1.6204 (2359)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6124

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6093 (1293)

$1.5997 (2001)

$1.5898 (1950)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 27623 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (2359);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 32621 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5400 (2350);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.