Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 31-01-2013

Business activity in the Chicago area saw a notable improvement in the month of January, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago on Thursday, with the Chicago business barometer reaching a nine-month high.

The ISM Chicago said its Chicago business barometer climbed to 55.6 in January from a revised 50.0 in December, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to dip to 50.5 from the 51.6 originally reported for the previous month.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rebounded by more than anticipated in the week ended January 26th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday, with jobless claims bouncing off a five-year low.

The report showed that initial jobless claims rose to 368,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 330,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to climb to 355,000.

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600

USD/JPY Y90.00, Y90.50, Y91.00, Y91.50

EUR/CHF Chf1.2500

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0410, $1.0425, $1.0470, $1.0500, $1.0515

AUD/JPY Y95.00

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted December +1.2% +0.1% -1.7%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y December -0.6% -1.3% -4.7%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January -0.1% +0.3% +0.5%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%
07:45 France Consumer spending December +0.2% +0.3% 0.0%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y December -0.2% +0.1% -0.1%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January +3 -9 -16
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.9% 6.9% 6.8%
13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) January +0.9% -0.5% -0.5%
13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) January +2.1% +2.0% +1.7%

The euro fell on Wednesday made a 13-month high against the dollar after a report showed that German retail sales fell last month, more than economists forecast, leading to damping demand for the single currency.

Retail sales in Germany, which are usually quite volatile index in December were worse than expected. In real terms, they fell from the previous month and compared with the same period last year. Retail sales adjusted for seasonal variations, the number of working days and inflation in December fell by 1.7% compared with November.

Other regional statistics published mixed. Greek retail sales rebounded from -18.1% to -16.8% in November (y / y), PPI Italy eased from 2.0% to 1.8% (vs. 1.9%), and the current account balance Spain increased from € 0.865 billion to € 1.780 billion previously unemployment rate in Greece has fallen from 6.9% to 6.8% in January. Unemployment in Germany fell by 16 thousand to 8 thousand on projections. The December figure was revised up from three thousand to -2 thousand German Preliminary CPI rose by 1.7% year on year and decreased by 0.5% m / m vs. -0.4% and 2.0% respectively.

The euro fell for the first time in three days against the yen as the data increased speculation that the recent appreciation of the currency would undermine efforts to restore the economy of the region.

Market participants expect the output data on the number of jobs outside agriculture in the USA, which are considered an indicator of the health of the world's largest economy. Stronger-than-expected data on the number of jobs in the private sector in the U.S., released on Wednesday, raised expectations that the employment report on Friday will also be quite positive.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.3539

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair rose to a new high of $ 1.5842, and then upgrade low of $ 1.5744

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair rose to a maximum of Y91.08

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will provide an index of commodity prices in December. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will publish the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. At 23:50 GMT a speech Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Graeme Wheeler.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3610/15, $1.3600

Bids $1.3500, $1.3485/80

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5900, $1.5885/90, $1.5870, $1.5850

Bids $1.5775, $1.5755/50, $1.5720, $1.5710/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0525/30, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0465/70, $1.0440/50

Bids $1.0380, $1.0350, $1.0330/25, $1.0300, $1.0260/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y125.00, Y124.50, Y124.00, Y123.70/80, Y123.55/60

Bids Y122.85/80, Y122.60/50, Y122.40, Y122.00, Y121.80

USD/JPY

Offers Y92.00, Y91.70, Y91.15/20

Bids Y90.60/50, Y90.40/30, Y90.10/00,  Y89.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8630, stg0.8620, stg0.8600

Bids stg0.8545/40, stg0.8525/20, stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8465/60

Germany's retail sales decreased more than expected in December reflecting weak domestic demand.

Sales declined 1.7 percent in December from a month ago, when it was up 0.6 percent, Destatis reported Thursday. Sales were forecast to fall just 0.1 percent.

The annual decline in retail turnover came in at 4.7 percent, much larger than the 0.6 percent drop seen in November. The decrease far exceeded the 1.5 percent decline forecast by economists.

Turnover in retail trade in the whole year of 2012 grew 1.9 percent in nominal terms, while it fell 0.3 percent in real terms.

Germany's unemployment declined unexpectedly by a seasonally adjusted 16,000 in January, the Federal Labor Agency said Thursday. Economists were expecting an increase of 8,000 for January.

The number of unemployed totaled 2.92 million. Driven by a sharp fall in unemployment, the jobless rate came in at 6.8 percent, down from 6.9 percent in December.

The rate was forecast to remain unchanged at the December level.

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600

USD/JPY Y90.00, Y90.50, Y91.00, Y91.50

EUR/CHF Chf1.2500

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0410, $1.0425, $1.0470, $1.0500, $1.0515

AUD/JPY Y95.00

The dollar fell to its lowest level since November 2011 against the euro, as the European economic confidence increased. At the same time, the market has increased speculation as to whether the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to monetary stimulus measures.

Growth for the euro is supported by data that showed that the index of consumer sentiment in the euro zone rose this month to the level of 89.2, compared with the revised figure for December at 87.8, while the experts are expected to rise to 88.2. The single currency has continued to grow, even in spite of the fact that the report showed that Spain's economic downturn deepened in the fourth quarter. It is learned that the gross domestic product fell by 0.7 per cent compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter.

The dollar lost some ground against the yen, which was caused by the published data, which showed that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter by 0.1%, compared with analysts' expectations of 1.1% growth.

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -29 -27 -26

00:30 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +4.7% +6.2%

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q IV quarter -2.4% +0.5% +0.3%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q IV quarter -6.4% -1.5% -2.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December 0.0% +0.2% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December +3.5% +3.4% +3.6%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY December -1.1% +1.1% -1.4%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln December 0.911 0.895 0.880

The dollar headed for a sixth monthly decline against the euro before data forecast to show U.S. jobless claims rose. U.S. applications for unemployment insurance payments rose by 21,000 to 351,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the Labor Department is forecast to report today, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The greenback traded near its weakest level in more than a year versus Europe’s shared currency and fell against the yen after the Fed said it will continue buying Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The Fed yesterday repeated that its purchases, divided between $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion a month of Treasury securities, will continue “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially.”

The central bank also left unchanged its statement that it planned to hold its target interest rate near zero as long as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and projected inflation stays below 2.5 percent.

The yen rose against all 16 of its major peers as a decline in Asian stocks boosted demand for safer assets.

The New Zealand dollar rose against Australia’s currency for a third day after Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said policy makers expect economic growth to strengthen this year.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3560-80.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y90.70.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3531 +0,30%

GBP/USD $1,5798 +0,23%

USD/CHF Chf0,9107 -1,14%

USD/JPY Y91,10 +0,44%

EUR/JPY Y123,56 +0,95%

GBP/JPY Y143,89 +0,63%

AUD/USD $1,0416 -0,55%

NZD/USD $0,8358 -0,41%

USD/CAD C$1,0012 +0,05%

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -29 -27

00:30 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +4.7%

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q IV quarter -2.4% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q IV quarter -6.4% -1.5%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December 0.0% +0.2%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December +3.5% +3.4%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY December -1.1% +1.1%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln December 0.907 0.895

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted December +1.2% +0.1%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y December -0.9% -1.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January -0.1% +0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January -1.0% -0.5%

07:45 France Consumer spending December +0.2% +0.3%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y December -0.2% +0.1%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January +3 -9

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.9% 6.9%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) January +0.9% -0.5%

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) January +2.1% +2.0%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) November +0.1% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index December -1.9% +0.9%

13:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m December -0.3% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 330 355

13:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index IV quarter +0.4% +0.6%

13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m December +0.6% +0.7%

13:30 U.S. Personal spending December +0.4% +0.4%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m December 0.0% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y December +1.5% +1.5%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index January 51.6 51.1

22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index January 44.3

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y December +0.2% -0.1%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate December 4.1% 4.1%