Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-04-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +73.97 18983.23 +0.39%

TOPIX +4.43 1517.03 +0.29%

Hang Seng +149.89 24261.48 +0.62%

CSI 300 +19.29 3456.05 +0.56%

Euro Stoxx 50 -27.99 3472.94 -0.80%

FTSE 100 -40.23 7282.69 -0.55%

DAX -55.67 12257.20 -0.45%

CAC 40 -36.60 5085.91 -0.71%

DJIA -13.01 20650.21 -0.06%

S&P 500 -3.88 2358.84 -0.16%

NASDAQ -17.05 5894.68 -0.29%

S&P/TSX +36.65 15584.40 +0.24%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0667 +0,13%

GBP/USD $1,2483 -0,55%

USD/CHF Chf1,0014 -0,13%

USD/JPY Y110,84 -0,50%

EUR/JPY Y118,24 -0,37%

GBP/JPY Y138,37 -1,03%

AUD/USD $0,7604 -0,30%

NZD/USD $0,7014 +0,16%

USD/CAD C$1,3377 +0,43%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance February 1.30 1.7

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 1.5% 1.5%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction March 52.5 52.5

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February -0.1% 0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 1.2% 1.4%

09:15 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February 0.81 0.64

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln February -48.5 -45

13:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders February 1.2% 1%

20:30 U.S. FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index March 49.0

Major US stock indices showed a decline after New York and other states accused the Trump administration of illegally blocking energy efficiency standards, casting doubt on the ability of the new government to promote the planned reforms.

In addition, as it became known that the conditions for doing business in the US industrial sector continued to improve in March, but the last figure was the lowest for 6 months. The loss of momentum reflected a weaker growth in production and new orders, as well as a slow increase in jobs. Producers sought to adjust their inventory strategies in response to restrained sales growth, while inventories of finished products declined for the first time in six months. In March, the final PMI index fell to 53.3 from 54.2 in February. The last reading was the lowest since September 2016.

However, the report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that in March, activity in the US manufacturing sector worsened, but less than the average forecasts of experts. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector was 57.2 points against 57.7 points in February. Analysts had expected that this figure would drop to 57.0 points. In addition, more detailed information showed: the price index in March rose to 70.5 from 68.0 in February, the employment index improved to 58.9 from 54.2, the index of new orders fell to 64.5 from 65.1, the index Production fell to 57.6 from 62.9, and the stock index fell to 49.0 from 51.5 in February.

The components of the DOW index mostly decreased (20 out of 30). The shares of E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company fell more than others (DD, -0.71%). The leader of growth was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 1.09%).

All sectors of the S & P index finished trading in the red. The conglomerate sector fell most of all (-0.6%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.06% 20.651.00 -12.22

Nasdaq -0.29% 5,894.68 -17.06

S & P -0.16% 2,358.87 -3.85

Major U.S. stock-indexes trade lower on Monday after New York and other states challenged the Trump administration for illegally blocking energy efficiency standards, casting further doubt on the new government's ability to push through planned reforms. The move by a coalition of U.S. states and municipalities comes barely two weeks after President Donald Trump's administration had to pull legislation to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system.

Most of Dow stocks in negative area (25 of 30). Top loser - E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DD, -1.36%). Top gainer - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, +0.66%).

All S&P sectors in negative area. Top loser - Basic Materials (-0.8%).

At the moment:

Dow 20524.00 -80.00 -0.39%

S&P 500 2348.75 -10.50 -0.45%

Nasdaq 100 5422.00 -16.50 -0.30%

Oil 50.35 -0.25 -0.49%

Gold 1254.50 +3.30 +0.26%

U.S. 10yr 2.35 -0.05

• Many firms expect increase in expenditures over next 12 months to be modest

• Balance of opinion on investment intentions increased in q1 survey; suggests plans to invest have become more widespread

• Expect somewhat faster export growth; growing number of firms expect U.S growth to be strong

• Firms expect some increase in sales growth; balance of opinion of indicators of future sales at highest level in five years

• Inflation expectations marginally higher than q4 survey; majority of firms still expect inflation to be in lower half of BoC's control range

• Capacity pressures remain modest overall, suggesting slack persists

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The March PMI registered 57.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the February reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64.5 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the February reading of 65.1 percent. The Production Index registered 57.6 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the February reading of 62.9 percent.

The Employment Index registered 58.9 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the February reading of 54.2 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the February reading of 51.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 70.5 percent in March, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the February reading of 68 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 13th consecutive month. Consistent with generally positive comments from the panel, all 18 industries reported growth in new orders for the month of March."

March data signalled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector, driven by faster rises in production, new orders and employment. Survey respondents widely commented on a boost from stronger domestic demand in March, especially among energy sector clients. Manufacturers also reported positive sentiment regarding the year-ahead outlook, which underpinned the greatest rise in payroll numbers since June 2012.

Meanwhile, cost pressures intensified in March. Efforts to alleviate pressures on margins meant that factory gate prices were raised at the steepest pace for exactly three years. The seasonally adjusted Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) rose from 54.7 in February to 55.5 in March, to remain above the crucial 50.0 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month. Moreover, the latest reading signalled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013.

EURUSD: 1.0735 (EUR 986m) 1.0750 (350m) 1.0780 (185m) 1.0800 (375m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 342m) 110.25 (610m) 111.40 (400m) 111.50 (360m) 111.90-112.00 (625m) 112.25 (230m) 112.60-70 (640m)

GBPUSD: 1.2500 (GBP 212m) 1.2650 (175m)

AUDUSD: 0.7600 (AUD 242m)

USDCAD 1.3350-55 (USD 230m) 1.3400 (190m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as investors awaited the earnings season to see if corporate profits justify lofty valuations, and, more immediately, a meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and the President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 18,983.23 +73.97 +0.39%

Hang Seng 24,261.48 +149.89 +0.62%

Shanghai -

FTSE 7,322.52 -0.40 -0.01%

CAC 5,102.63 -19.88 -0.39%

DAX 12,325.28 +12.41 +0.10%

Crude $50.67 (+0.14%)

Gold $1,249.30 (-0.15%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

• Wants to raise defence spending further after september election

• Want to limit damage from Brexit

• 2018 year-end selic rate forecast 8.50 pct vs 8.50 pct previous week

• 2018 gdp growth forecast 2.50 pct vs 2.50 pct previous week

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0685 1.0700 1.0725-30 1.0760 1.0775-80 1.0800

Bids: 1.0650 1.0630 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2550-55 1.2585 1.2600 1.2620 1.2650 1.2680 1.2700

Bids: 1.2520 1.2500 1.2480 1.2465 1.2450 1.2430 1.2400 1.2375-80 1.2350

EUR/JPY

Offers: 119.00 119.20 119.50 119.80 120.00

Bids: 118.65 118.50 118.30 118.00 117.85 117.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8520-25 0.8550 0.85665 0.8585 0.8600 0.8630 0.8650

Bids: 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.20 112.50

Bids: 111.30 111.00 110.80 110.50 110.20 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7620 0.7650 0.7665 0.7680-85 0.7700

Bids: 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7500

• Fillon would beat le pen in run-off vote by 58 pct to 42 pct if Fillon made it through to second round

• Macron seen beating Le Pen in run-off vote by 63 pct

In February 2017, compared with January 2017, industrial producer prices remained stable in the euro area (EA19), while they rose by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In January 2017 prices increased by 1.1% in both zones. In February 2017, compared with February 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 4.5% in the euro area and by 5.3% in the EU28.

Industrial producer prices in total industry remained stable in the euro area in February 2017, compared with January 2017, due to rises of 0.6% for intermediate goods, of 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods and of 0.1% for both capital goods and durable consumer goods, while prices fell by 1.1% in the energy sector. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.3%.

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 9.5% in February 2017, down from 9.6% in January 2017 and from 10.3% in February 2016. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since May 2009.

The EU28 unemployment rate was 8.0% in February 2017, down from 8.1% in January 2017 and from 8.9% in February 2016. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since January 2009. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Eurostat estimates that 19.750 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 15.439 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in February 2017. Compared with January 2017, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 153 000 in the EU28 and by 140 000 in the euro area. Compared with February 2016, unemployment fell by 1.852 million in the EU28 and by 1.246 million in the euro area.

The upturn in the eurozone manufacturing sector gathered further pace at the end of the first quarter. Rates of expansion in production and new orders accelerated to near six-year highs, as companies saw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients.

The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 56.2 in March, up from 55.4 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (55.6) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011

Although rates of expansion in output and new orders lost further impetus following recent highs, they remained above the respective long-run averages. The domestic market was a key source of new business wins. The boost to export competitiveness from the weak sterling exchange rate also contributed to new work inflows.

The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI slipped to a four-month low of 54.2 in March, down from 54.5 in February, but stayed above the neutral mark of 50.0 for the eighth successive month. The latest PMI reading compared favourably to its long-run trend (51.6). The average over the opening quarter as a whole (54.7) was identical to the prior quarter's near three-year high.

EURUSD: 1.0735 (EUR 986m) 1.0750 (350m) 1.0780 (185m) 1.0800 (375m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 342m) 110.25 (610m) 111.40 (400m) 111.50 (360m) 111.90-112.00 (625m) 112.25 (230m) 112.60-70 (640m)

GBPUSD: 1.2500 (GBP 212m) 1.2650 (175m)

AUDUSD: 0.7600 (AUD 242m)

USDCAD 1.3350-55 (USD 230m) 1.3400 (190m)

There was a further improvement in the health of Japan's manufacturing economy during March, with growth underpinned by rising levels of output, new orders and employment. Although rates of expansion eased in all cases, they nonetheless remained solid and were underpinned by marked gains in the capital goods sector. While yen depreciation provided some positive support to new export orders, the corollary was further inflation in imported goods prices. This led to another marked rise in manufacturers' input costs, which served to eat into margins as manufacturers were in general unable to pass on higher costs to clients.

The headline Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' IndexTM - a composite singlefigure indicator of manufacturing performance - slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March. Down from 53.3, the PMI posted a level of 52.4, a reading consistent with solid growth. March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded.

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in February 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in January 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-2.5 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.4 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in food retailing (0.3 per cent) and department stores (0.8 per cent). Other retailing, and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services were relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent).

• Probability of having to provide more monetary accommodation has reduced considerably

• Underlying inflation remains subdued in euro zone

• Euro zone economy gaining momentum but still must be confirmed by hard data

• Ecb has won the battle against deflation

The number of dwellings approved rose 0.8 per cent in February 2017, in trend terms, after falling for eight months, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

Dwelling approvals increased in February in New South Wales (2.5 per cent), Victoria (1.4 per cent), Tasmania (0.9 per cent) and South Australia (0.5 per cent), but decreased in the Australian Capital Territory (15.6 per cent), Northern Territory (12.3 per cent), Queensland (0.7 per cent) and Western Australia (0.2 per cent) in trend terms.

In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 0.6 per cent in February. Private sector house approvals fell in South Australia (1.7 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), New South Wales (0.5 per cent), Victoria (0.3 per cent) and Queensland (0.1 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, dwelling approvals increased by 8.3 per cent in February, driven by a rise in total dwellings excluding houses (11.0 per cent) and total house approvals (5.7 per cent).

European stocks ended a volatile trading session mostly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index logging a third quarter of gains.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, but still posted sizable weekly and quarterly gains. Monthly performance was mixed. Real estate shares, utilities and consumer discretionary stocks attracted buyers. Technology stocks were the best performers over the past quarter, up 12%. The benchmark index gained 0.8% over the week and was flat for the month. Over the quarter, the index was up 5.5%, advancing for a sixth straight quarter.

The second quarter kicked off with a lukewarm start for Asian equities on Monday, with markets wavering between neutral and slight gains, ahead of Donald Trump's summit with China's president later this week.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0851 (755)

$1.0820 (1081)

$1.0778 (450)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0679

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0586 (755)

$1.0561 (729)

$1.0533 (1443)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 45295 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3940);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 49558 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (3831);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 31

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2809 (1163)

$1.2712 (861)

$1.2617 (368)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2543

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2484 (559)

$1.2387 (579)

$1.2291 (315)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15681 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1253);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 17626 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3056);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 31

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.