Forex-novosti i prognoze od 09-02-2012

The euro reached a two-month high against the dollar and the yen after Greek political leaders said they had reached an agreement on austerity measures needed to obtain a bailout. The 17-nation currency strengthened against all but one of its most-traded counterparts after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said it would lower the collateral requirements to access the next three-year loan auction later this month. The accord came as euro-region finance ministers held an emergency meeting in Brussels to discuss the 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) aid package. Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group, said there will be no final decision on Greece’s bailout package at the meeting. The ECB maintained its main refinancing rate at 1 percent.

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, dropped 0.4 percent to 78.413 after falling to 78.364, the lowest since Dec. 8. The gauge is weighted 57.6 percent to movements in the euro.

The pound rose toward the highest since November against the dollar after the Bank of England said it would increase its bond-buying program by less than some economists forecast. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the target for bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($79.3 billion) to 325 billion pounds, more than a quarter of current outstanding gilts.

European stocks rose for the first time in four days as Greek political leaders reached a consensus on austerity measures and the European Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at a record low.

Greece’s government has reached a deal on austerity measures required for a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) financing package, according to a statement from the press office of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos.

ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt left the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, as predicted economists. President Mario Draghi said at a press conference that surveys confirm tentative signs of stabilization in the euro-area economy.

Bank of England officials decided to infuse another 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) into the U.K. economy to protect a nascent recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the target for bond purchases to 325 billion pounds, more than a quarter of current outstanding gilts.

National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 added 0.4 percent. Germany’s DAX climbed 0.6 percent, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.3 percent.

Daimler jumped 4.6 percent to 46.68 euros, its highest since Aug. 2. The company reported a 39 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit, boosted by demand for the revamped M- Class sport-utility vehicle.

Preference shares of Hugo Boss rose 0.7 percent to 77.30 euros. The German luxury clothier controlled by buyout firm Permira Advisers said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and one-time items increased to 97 million euros from 77 million euros in the year-earlier period.

Credit Suisse declined 3.5 percent to 24.35 Swiss francs. Switzerland’s second-biggest lender said it had a loss in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008, hurt by “adverse markets” and costs to reorganize the investment bank.

U.S. stocks advanced, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied to a seven-month high, as Greek political leaders struck a deal on a package of austerity measures needed to secure international rescue funds.

Greece’s government reached a deal on austerity measures required for a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) financing package, according to an e-mailed statement from the Greek Prime Minister’s press office. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the economic outlook has improved, suggesting policy makers may be less inclined to add to stimulus.

Dow 12,904.39 +20.44 +0.16%, Nasdaq 2,925.73 +9.87 +0.34%, S&P 500 1,352.68 +2.72 +0.20%

Visa rallied 4.4 percent to $113.07. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Joseph W. Saunders is positioning Visa for its next phase of growth after U.S. regulators capped so-called swipe fees, or interchange, that the company charges merchants for debit-card purchases. Visa, which derived about 56 percent of revenue from the U.S. in fiscal 2011, has said it intends to generate more than half from markets abroad by 2015.

Akamai jumped 9.4 percent to $37.67. The company, whose customers include Apple Inc., is benefiting from rising demand for its services as companies seek ways to push data-heavy digital content, such as videos, around the world more quickly. A surge in Web shopping bolstered

Groupon tumbled 13 percent to $21.41. The company has expanded to 47 countries and set up a new international headquarters in Switzerland. That contributed to a higher-than- expected $34.8 million in taxes, Chief Financial Officer Jason Child said.

PepsiCo Inc. dropped 3.5 percent to $64.43. The company plans to cut 8,700 jobs and boost marketing spending for its brands by as much as $600 million as Chief Executive Officer Indra Nooyi works to turn around the world’s largest snack-food maker.

Oil rose for a third day as the number of Americans filing first-time unemployment claims unexpectedly declined and Greek political leaders struck a deal on a package of austerity measures.

Futures advanced as much as 1.5 percent after the Labor Department said applications for jobless benefits decreased 15,000 in the week ended Feb. 4 to 358,000. The Greek government has reached the agreement required for a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) financing package, according to an e-mailed statement from Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s office.

Crude for March delivery gained to $100.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for March settlement increased 95 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $118.15 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, rising for an eighth day.

Data:

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate IV quarter -24 -19

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) December -0.6% +0.2% +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) December -3.1% -3.1% -3.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) December -0.2% +0.3% +1.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) December -0.6% +0.3% +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods December -8.6 -8.4 -7.1

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%

The euro retreated from a two-month high against the dollar after Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said there were still doubts on the agreement needed to win a rescue package for the nation.

The common currency stayed lower against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a policy meeting today. The euro erased earlier gains versus the greenback as Venizelos headed to Brussels while politicians in Athens debated the issue of pension cuts needed to secure a 130 billion euro ($173 billion) bailout. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference later today.

The pound strengthened after the Bank of England said it would increase its bond-buying program by 50 billion pounds ($79.3 billion).

EUR/USD: the pair showed high above $1,3300, but returned to area $1,3250 later.

GBP/USD: the pair grown, reached $1,5878.

USD/JPY: during european session the pair was limited Y77,10-Y77,20.

The US calendar kicks off at 1330GMT, with the release of the weekly jobless claims data. At 1500GMT, Wholesale Inventories numbers are released, the same time the UK policy forum the NIESR release their updated growth forecasts. At 1530GMT, the Regular IMF news briefing is being held. The last scheduled event for the day is the US money supply data, due for release at 2100GMT.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350, $1.3325/35

Bids $1.3205/00, $1.3170/60

Resistance 3: Y78.10 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 2: Y77.50 (Jan 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y77.20 (session high)

Current price: Y77.13

Support 1:Y77.10 (intraday low)

Support 2:Y76.70 (Feb 7 low)

Support 3:Y76.50 (Feb 6 low, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9260 (Feb 6 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9230 (Feb 7 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9131

Support 1: Chf0.9090 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9060 (low of December)

Support 3: Chf0.8950 (Nov 11 low)

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3335

USD/JPY Y77.00, Y76.70, Y76.35

AUD/USD $1.0800, $1.0775, $1.0650

EUR/CHF Chf1.2040, Chf1.2130, Chf1.2135

GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5900, $1.6000

The euro rose toward a two-month high after a Greek government official signaled confidence that finance ministers in the currency bloc will approve a second financing accord for the debt-strapped nation.

The common currency rose for a third day against the yen after Greek politicians debated budget cuts needed to secure the bailout with a remaining dispute over pension cuts. Greece must pass an accord on spending cuts to receive a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) rescue package from the so- called troika of lenders and avoid default. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and the leaders of the three parties supporting the government “agreed on all the points of the program with the exception of one which requires further elaboration and discussion” with the lenders, according to an e-mailed statement from the premier’s office. They failed to resolve a dispute over pension cuts.

The European Central Bank also meets today to set monetary policy.

The pound was restored after yesterday's falling on prospects the Bank of England will expand its asset-purchase program.  The Bank of England will increase bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) at a policy meeting today.

New Zealand dollar declined after Greek debt negotiations stalled and faster inflation in China tempered optimism the region’s central banks will ease policies to shore up economic growth. Data showed today consumer prices in China rose 4.5 percent last month from a year earlier, after December’s 4.1 percent gain, exceeding all 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose, updated new week’s high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was restored after yesterday's falling.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, showed new week’s high.

A string of UK data is scheduled for release at 0930GMT, with the release of January BOE Quoted Rates, December Trade data and December manufacturing and industrial output numbers. Also at 0930GMT, the CML mortgage repossession data is set for release. The US calendar kicks off at 1330GMT, with the release of the weekly jobless claims data. At 1500GMT, Wholesale Inventories numbers are released, the same time the UK policy forum the NIESR release their updated growth forecasts. At 1530GMT, the Regular IMF news briefing is being held. The last scheduled event for the day is the US money supply data, due for release at 2100GMT.

Yesterday the euro fluctuated against the dollar amid speculation Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and coalition party leaders will fail to agree on terms required for a bailout. Greece’s Papademos negotiated with political leaders in Athens after delaying the gathering for a second time in as many days. He met officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout. Euro-area finance ministers are due to gather in an emergency meeting in Brussels as the Greek government pushes to complete talks.

The Dollar Index rose from its weakest level in two months on demand for a refuge as Greek political leaders were locked in discussions with Papademos.

The yen fell against the majority of its major peers as Japan’s current-account surplus slid to a 15- year low in 2011. The yen dropped after the Finance Ministry in Tokyo said Japan’s current-account surplus shrank 44 percent in 2011 from the previous year to 9.63 trillion yen ($125 billion), the lowest since 1996. Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive as a haven because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair traded in a range $1.3220-$1.3290.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair has fallen to a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair gain, showed new week’s high.

A string of UK data is scheduled for release at 0930GMT, with the release of January BOE Quoted Rates, December Trade data and December manufacturing and industrial output numbers. Also at 0930GMT, the CML mortgage repossession data is set for release. The US calendar kicks off at 1330GMT, with the release of the weekly jobless claims data. At 1500GMT, Wholesale Inventories numbers are released, the same time the UK policy forum the NIESR release their updated growth forecasts. At 1530GMT, the Regular IMF news briefing is being held. The last scheduled event for the day is the US money supply data, due for release at 2100GMT.

Asian stocks rose for a third day as Greece’s government edged closer to securing a bailout package and Toyota Motor Corp. raised its profit forecast. Chinese shares rallied ahead reports tomorrow that are expected to show inflation easing.

Nikkei 225 9,015.59 +98.07 +1.10%

Hang Seng 21,018.46 +319.27 +1.54%

S&P/ASX 200 4,290.71 +16.51 +0.39%

Shanghai Composite 2,347.53 +55.63 +2.43%

Toyota rallied 5 percent in Tokyo after Asia’s largest carmaker raised its earnings outlook by 11 percent as new models boosted sales. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co. climbed in Hong Kong after China raised fuel prices for the first time in 10 months. Rio Tinto Group gained 1.1 percent in Sydney.

Larger rival, BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) slid 0.4 percent to A$37.75 in Sydney. The company reported a 5.5 percent drop in first-half profit to $9.9 billion as rising costs combined with lower output and prices halved base-metal earnings. That compares with an average analyst estimate of $10 billion.

Panasonic Corp. gained 3.3 percent to 657 yen, Fujitsu Ltd. (6702) increased 2.9 percent to 391 yen and Renesas Electronics Corp. surged 10 percent to 556 yen after the Nikkei reported all three companies are in talks to join their system chip operations. The newspaper did not cite anyone.

European stocks dropped for a third day. Greece’s Prime Minister Lucas Papademos met the leaders of the three political parties that support his government in Athens today. He held an unscheduled meeting late last night with the troika -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- to haggle over the terms needed to secure further aid.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 10 of the 18 western- European (SXXP) markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.2 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index and Germany’s DAX Index decreased 0.1 percent.

BHP Billiton retreated 2.3 percent to 2,130 pence. The world’s biggest mining company reported a 5.5 percent drop in first-half profit, the first decline since 2009, as rising costs and lower output and prices cut its earnings from base metals by half.

Vestas plunged 14 percent to 57.50 kroner for the largest slump on the Stoxx 600. The world’s biggest wind-turbine maker reported an annual loss of 166 million euros ($220 million), according to its annual report.

Banco Espirito Santo SA surged 13 percent to 1.67 euros, while Banco Comercial Portugues SA rose 5.1 percent to 18.5 euro cents.

UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, added 2.2 percent to 4.48 euros. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the country’s second-largest bank, gained 3 percent to 1.60 euros.

U.S. stocks advanced, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a seven-month high, as Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos began talks with political leaders on terms required for a bailout. Papademos began talks with political parties supporting his government as he works to secure a second aid package. Greece will pledge permanent spending cuts, including lower pensions and a 20 percent reduction in minimum wages, according to the draft of the financing deal.

Dow 12,883.95     +5.75   +0.04%, Nasdaq      2,915.86       +11.78 +0.41%, S&P 500   1,349.96       +2.91         +0.22%

Bank of America (ВАС) climbed 3.6 percent, the most in the Dow, to $8.13.

Ralph Lauren Corp. rallied 9.2 percent to $171.49. The retailer of its namesake brand clothing said revenue in the current fiscal year may gain more than it previously expected.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) lost 0.6 percent to $85.32.

Sprint Nextel Corp. slumped 1.6 percent to $2.41 after reporting widening losses for the first quarter it offered the Apple Inc. iPhone, signaling the best-selling device may not be helping Chief Executive Officer Dan Hesse turn around the carrier’s business.

Western Union Co. tumbled 10 percent, the biggest decline in the S&P 500, to $17.73. The world’s largest money-transfer business forecast earnings in 2012 will be no more than $1.75 a share, less than the average analyst estimate of $1.81.

Resistance 3 : $1.5930 (Nov 15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5905 (Feb 7 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5880 (middle line from Feb 6)

The current price: $1.5826

Support 1 : $1.5885/90 (Feb 7 low, session low)

Support 2 : $1.5730 (Feb 6 low)

Support 3 : $1.5705 (Feb 1 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3360 (high of the European session on Dec 12)

Resistance 2 : $1.3320 (middle line from Feb 6)

Resistance 1 : $1.3290 (high on Feb 8)

The current price: $1.3278

Support 1 : $1.3215 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3170 (161.8% FIBO $1.3290-$1.3215)

Support 3 : $1.3125 (61.8% FIBO $1.3290-$1.3025)

Change % Change Last

Oil $99.06 +0.35 +0.35%

Gold $1,736.00 +4.70 +0.27%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,015.59 98,07 +1,10%

Hang Seng 21,018.46 319,27 1,54%

S&P/ASX 200 4,290.71 16,51 +0,39%

Shanghai Composite +2,43 2,347.53 55,63%

FTSE 100 5,875.93 -14.33 -0.24%

CAC 40 3,410 -1.54 -0.05%

DAX 6,748.76 -5.44 -0.08%

Dow 12,883.95 +5.75 +0.04%

Nasdaq 2,915.86 +11.78 +0.41%

S&P 500 1,349.96 +2.91 +0.22%

01:30 China CPI y/y January +4.1% +4.0%

01:30 China PPI y/y January +1.7% +0.8%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence January 38.9

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y January +17.4%

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate IV quarter -24

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) December -0.6% +0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) December -3.1% -3.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) December -3.1% -3.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) December -0.2% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) December -0.6% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods December -8.6 -8.4

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0 0.50% 0.50%

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 1.00% 1.00%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference 0

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index December +0.3% +0.5%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 04/02/12 367 390

15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate January

15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories December +0.1% +0.4%