Forex-novosti i prognoze od 09-03-2011

The S&P 500 continues to bump up against resistance at the neutral line, where sellers have been standing firm all session.
Part of the stock markets inability to turn positive stems from an absence of leadership. Sure, telecom stocks are up 0.7% and utilities stocks are up 0.8%, but together the two sectors account for just 6% of the market's overall weight. Meanwhile, tech and financials, which combine for almost 35% of the market's overall weight, are down 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. The tech sector continues to be weakened by semiconductor stocks (-2.8%) while the financial sector has been hampered by specialized finance issues (-0.8%).

The euro fell against most of its peers after Portugal was forced to pay more at a debt auction than it has in the past, indicating concern the region is struggling to contain its sovereign-debt crisis.
Portugal sold 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of securities due September 2013. The bonds were issued at an average yield of 5.993 percent, the country’s debt management agency said. That compares with an average yield of 4.086 percent at a previous auction of the same-maturity debt on Sept. 8. The auction attracted bids for 1.6 times the amount offered, compared with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.9 in September.
The 17-nation currency rose earlier on speculation the European Central Bank asked for prices to purchase the securities of the region’s most indebted nations. The central bank inquired about prices for Irish bonds and didn’t buy, according to two traders with knowledge of the matter.
The Swiss franc rose against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts as crude oil prices increased on concern turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast will disrupt supply, encouraging investors to seek refuge.
“We’re seeing some pretty strong inflows getting back into the Swiss franc,” said Samarjit Shankar, a managing director for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. “There are some undercurrents of risk aversion.”
Crude oil gained 0.3 percent to $105.33 a barrel in New York. It reached a two and a half year high of $106.95 earlier this week.
Currencies of commodity-exporting countries strengthened against the dollar as raw materials rose for an eight day in nine.
New Zealand’s dollar traded little changed before a central bank meeting at 20:00 GMT to discuss interest-rate policy.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut its key rate by 50 basis points. Some expect a 25-basis-point cut. Central bank Governor Alan Bollard needs to revive stalled growth after last month’s earthquake in Christchurch, the nation’s deadliest in 80 years.

The Dow is back at the neutral line, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to trail as they trade with losses.
Oil prices are back in the red after working their way to higher ground in early pit trade -- they prices were last quoted with a 0.4% loss at $104.65 per barrel. A greater-than-expected build in weekly inventories was unveiled about 90 minutes ago, but it had little real impact on trade.
Oil's slip has led to some selling against energy stocks. In turn, the sector is down 0.5%, which comes on top of its 0.6% loss in the prior session, when it was the only sector to log a loss.

An upward push took the Dow into positive territory, but the S&P 500 encountered resistance at the neutral line. Subsequent selling pressure has sent the broad market down to a fresh session low.
Materials stocks are down the most. Their 1.9% loss is almost twice as much as next worst performing sectors (industrials, -1.0%). Among the 30 names that make up the materials sector, Sherwin Williams (SHW 81.51, +0.12) and CF Industries (CF 129.12, +0.18) are the only two in positive territory. Steel stocks Nucor (NUE 45.99, -1.21) and U.S. Steel (X 54.24, -1.48) are under some of the sharpest pressure in the sector.

EUR/USD $1.3875, $1.3900 (lge), $1.3950
USD/JPY Y82.50, Y83.00
AUD/USD $1.0100

Breaks back below $1.6200, extending its corrective pullback off late European morning highs of $1.6243. Break below $1.6190 sees rate challenging next support at $1.6177 (61.8% $1.6137/1.6243) a break to allow for a move toward $1.6162 (76.4%).

U.S. stocks were poised for a flat open Wednesday, as investors continue to monitor developments in Libya.

Settles between stg0.8585/90, after recovering from earlier posted lows at stg0.8565. Move up seen as cable lagged euro-dollar's react to reports of ECB buying peripheral eurozone bonds. Offers seen placed between stg0.8605/15, a break to open a move back toward recent highs at stg0.8635. Support remains in place at stg0.8565/60.

Recovery extended to $1.3920 as talk emerged of ECB checking Irish and Greek rates, with later talk of official buying of Greek and OPortugal bonds. Rate holds firm, currently trading around $1.3915. Offers were earlier reported between $1.3920/25 ($1.3922 Tuesday recovery high in NY), a break to open a move toward $1.3950/60.

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3820, $1.3850, $1.3875, $1.3900, $1.3950, $1.3990, $1.4000, $1.4050