Forex-novosti i prognoze od 12-05-2021

According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group discuss U.S. inflation report for April.

"Consumer prices surprised on the upside in April, rising 0.8% month-on-month (m/m), versus expectations for a 0.2% m/m gain. That boosted the headline inflation rate to 4.2% year-on-year (y/y), up from 2.6% in March."

"A 10% m/m gain in used vehicle prices accounted for over one-third of the headline increase in inflation. That was the largest one-month increase in used vehicle prices ever."

"Core prices (ex. food and energy) also came in above expectations, rising by 0.9% m/m% (the median consensus estimate was for 0.3%). That drove year/year core inflation to 3% in April – the largest increase since 1996. Used vehicle prices were a big part of the story, but inflation pressures accelerated for a variety of goods and services in April. The biggest factors were shelter (+0.4% m/m), which accelerated on prices for lodging away from home (+7.6% m/m), airline fares (+10.2%), recreation (+0.9% m/m), motor vehicle insurance (+2.5% m/m), and household furnishings and operations (+0.9% m/m). Significant price increases were also seen for car and truck rentals (+16.2% m/m), new vehicles (0.5% m/m) and prescription drugs (+0.5% m/m)."

"April’s inflation report provides plenty of fodder for those worried about an acceleration in inflation. Many have worried that the large fiscal stimulus underway in the U.S. will run up against pandemic-related capacity constraints and supply chain disruptions and cause a surge in price pressures. Many of the biggest price hikes in April do fall in areas that have seen the biggest disruptions during the pandemic - travel-related areas like airline fares, car rentals and hotels, where demand is picking up sharply as Americans are vaccinated."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 0.427 million barrels in the week ended May 7, following a plunge of 7.990 million barrels in the previous week. Economists had forecast a drop of 2.817 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks rose 0.378 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decrease of 0.600 million barrels. Distillate stocks dropped 1.733 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a draw of 1.08 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased by 100,000 barrels a day to 11.000 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, up by 37,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

FXStreet notes that an appreciable CPI beat imposed a rather swift knee-jerk reaction in FX, that has been mostly faded. As long as US real yields remain contained due to a very patient Fed, the USD is likely to remain soggy. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is likely to trade with a heavy tone – given a backdrop of a hawkish Bank of Canada and its sensitivity to BEs being the highest in the G10. 1.20 is now the main downside attractor, according to economists at TD Securities.

“The CPI rose 0.8% MoM in April, with core up 0.9% MoM, much stronger than expected. The YoY readings rose to 4.2% total/3.0% core, boosted by base effects as well as the latest MoM data.”

“The CAD has persistently held a strong positive correlation with breakevens. Against a backdrop of a hawkish BoC, we're inclined to think that USD/CAD will trade heavy with the September 2017 pivot (1.2062) already having been challenged.” 

“1.20 will be the main downside attractor and represents key psychological support. The market may be hesitant to break that threshold out of a false hope that Governor Macklem will try to jawbone the currency lower in a speech tomorrow.”

• Says Fed considering issues around a central bank digital currency
• Boston Fed will release white paper in early Q3 and create an open-source licence for the code
• Any decision to move forward with a central bank digital currency would depend on variety of factors

• Says he was surprised by today's CPI report but hasn't looked through it in detail
• If contrary to our baseline view, if inflation expectations are pushed up and are persistent, we would not hesitate to act
• It may take longer to reopen a $20 trillion economy than it did to shut it down
• We will need to be attuned to the data and following it closely
• Inflation rising above 2% is due to transitory factors
• Inflation to rise somewhat further before moderating later this year
• Near-term labor market outlook is more uncertain than economic outlook
• We expect the U.S. recovery to pick up steam this year
• Expect inflation to return to or perhaps run somewhat above 2% in 2022 and 2023
• True unemployment adjusted for participation is 8.9%
• Repeats that it's likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday, as concerns of faster interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased after the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data for April.

Global Stocks:

FXStreet reports that gold (XAU/USD) is approaching the 2020-2021 downtrend at $1865. The yellow metal is expected to break above here to target the $1959/65 neighborhood, according to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank.

“Gold is approaching the 200-day ma at $1848 and the 2020-2021 trendline at $1865, while these may hold the initial test, we are looking for a break higher. Above here will target the $1959/65 November 2020 high and the 2021 high. These guard the $2072 2020 peak.”

“Dips lower will ideally be contained by the $1788 6-week uptrend. This guards the 20-day ma at $1758, while above here the market should continue to stabilise.” 

Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The Labor Department announced on Wednesday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8 percent m-o-m in April, following an unrevised 0.6 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month.

Over the last 12 months, the CPI climbed 4.2 percent y-o-y, accelerating noticeably from +2.6 percent y-o-y reported for the period ending in March. This was the highest reading since September 2008.

Economists had forecast the CPI to increase 0.2 percent m-o-m and 3.6 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period.

According to the report, еhe index for used cars and trucks surged 10.0 percent m-o-m in April, recording its largest one-month increase since the series began in 1953 and accounting for over a third of the seasonally adjusted all items climb. In addition, the food index rose 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, the energy index edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m, as a drop in the index for gasoline more than offset gains in the indexes for electricity and natural gas.

The core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs jumped 0.9 percent m-o-m in April after an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m uptick in the previous month. This was the largest monthly increase since April 1982.

In the 12 months through April, the core CPI climbed 3.0 percent compared to an unrevised 1.6 percent advance for the 12 months ending March.

Economists had forecast the core CPI to increase 0.3 percent m-o-m and to jump 2.3 percent y-o-y last month.

FXStreet reports that an economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviews the latest results from Chinese Producer Prices.

“Led by soaring commodity prices, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 6.8% y/y in April (Bloomberg est: +6.5%; Mar: +4.4%), its highest since October 2017.”

“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to edge higher in April by 0.9% y/y but this was lower than consensus forecast (Bloomberg est: +1.0%; Mar: +0.4%). Furthermore, the momentum has eased with CPI falling on a month-on-month basis for the second month by -0.3% in April compared to -0.5% in March. This suggests that the pass-through from higher producer prices has remained contained so far.”

“Year-to-date, the CPI and PPI averaged 0.2% y/y and 3.3% y/y respectively. While the pass-through from higher producer prices to consumer prices has been contained so far, this remains a key risk for China’s inflation outlook. Furthermore, the sustained strength in global food and energy prices may exert upward pressure on China’s CPI in the coming months as the domestic high base effect continues to fade.”

“Taking into consideration of the data to date, we are revising our 2021 CPI forecast to 1.9% from 2.6% (2020: 2.5%) and PPI to 6.3% from 4%-5% (2020: -1.8%).”

USD rose against most of its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected March growth figures from the United Kingdom bolstered investors' optimism about a strong recovery of the country's economy from the pandemic-induced contraction last year.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that its preliminary estimate showed that the UK's economy contracted by 1.5 percent q/q in the first quarter of 2021, following a 1.3 percent q/q growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. Economists had expected a 1.6 percent q/q drop. On a yearly basis, GDP shrank 6.1 percent, matching economists' forecasts. In March alone, the British economy expanded 2.1 percent m/m, recording its fastest monthly growth since August 2020. This marked a significant improvement from +0.7 percent m/m in February, as schools in some parts of the UK reopened throughout the month as the UK’s government continued to move forward with its lockdown easing plans. 

Another data showed that the UK’s trade deficit widened to GBP 11.71 billion in March from GBP 10.51 billion in February.

On Monday, the UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the next stage of coronavirus lockdown easing in England will begin on May 17, as part of the government's four-step roadmap to ending lockdown by the summer.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. climbed 2.1 percent in the week ended May 7, following a 0.9 percent drop in the previous week. 

According to the report, refinance applications surged 2.9 percent, while applications to purchase a home increased 0.8 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate declined from 3.18 percent to 3.11 percent, the lowest level since the end of February.

“The decline in rates helped the refinance index reach its highest level in eight weeks, driven by a 4 percent increase in conventional refinances,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “Additionally, refinance loan balances increased for the fourth straight week, an indication that higher-balance borrowers acted to take quick advantage of lower rates.”

FXStreet notes that USD/CAD is consolidating just above regime defining long-term support at 1.2062/48 as the fall in equities weighs on high beta FX. Nevertheless, economists at Credit Suisse do not expect a major correction in equities and once risk sentiment stabilizes, a weekly close below here would complete a long-term ‘double top’. Next supports are at 1.1916, with scope for an eventual move to 1.1424/1318. 

“USD/CAD remains in a strong medium-term downtrend, which was recently reinforced by its break below major support at a corrective price low from 2018 at 1.2256/51.”

“With a major medium-term top also in place and medium-term momentum reaccelerating, we look for an eventual break below 1.2062/48, with a weekly close below here completing a multi-year ‘double top’ to dramatically reinforce our medium-term bearish outlook, with the next supports then seen at 1.1916, with little below here until 1.1424/1.1318, which is the uptrend from 2011 and 61.8% retracement of the same move.” 

FXStreet reports that palladium (XPD/USD) continues to hold over the 20-day moving average at 2904 and maintains an upside bias while above here. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, suggests that target zone 3028/53 remains. 

“Palladium is consolidating below the new high at 3020. It remains in our target zone. We have no fewer than 3 point and figure targets in the 3028-3053 target zone. We would again tighten up stops as we are concerned that a move higher will not be sustained.” 

“Dips lower have already held over the 20-day ma at 2904, however, and only a close below here will negate upside pressure for now. Failure here will shift attention back to the 2758 mid-March high.” 

FXStreet notes that AUD/USD has fallen sharply overnight. Nonetheless, the aussie is oscillating around its trendline breakout point at 0.7810, keeping the risks higher – with resistance seen back at 0.7892/7905, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

“AUD/USD has continued lower, in line with the weakness in equity markets. However, the pair is oscillating around the ‘neckline’ to its recently completed irregular basing structure at 0.7810, having recovered from the 13-day exponential average at 0.7785/84. This keeps us biased directly higher, with daily MACD momentum also still re-accelerating, with the next levels at 0.7892 /7905, then the 0.8000/07 high.” 

“We expect the 0.8000/07 high to prove a tough barrier, however, with the core medium-term uptrend still intact and reasserting itself, we now expect a break in due course, which would open up a move to the 2018 highs at 0.8126/36.” 

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank expect high inflation data to trigger further USD selling.

“The UST 10yr bond yield has crept higher since the brief decline immediately following the NFP on Friday, which is an indication of the market concerns over the building bottlenecks in manufacturing and hence the fear of a big inflation number in the US today.” 

“In all likelihood, it will take a reading greater than the 0.3% MoM core CPI consensus to really get a move in UST bond yields. But equally, a weaker print is unlikely to prompt too much of a decline. We see limited prospects of a significant currency reaction to a 0.3% MoM gain at this stage.” 

“A measure of the Fed’s continued success can be seen by the remarkable renewed decline in real yields. The US dollar will continue to struggle given that backdrop alone. A high inflation print matching consensus may well reinforce this and prompt modest USD selling today.”

Reuters reports that the European Commission said that the eurozone will rebound from its COVID-19 slump more than expected, but some countries won’t reach pre-crisis levels before the end of 2022.

The aggregate growth of the 19 countries sharing the euro currency should be 4.3% this year and 4.4% in 2022, the European Commission said, revising upwards its forecast from February of 3.8% growth in both years.

“Growth rates will continue to vary across the EU, but all Member States should see their economies return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022,” the Commission said.

The need to return to pre-crisis levels has been an argument for the suspension of EU borrowing limits for governments in 2020 and 2021 and the Commission said in March that while its final decision would depend on the May forecasts, the EU should keep the limits suspended in 2022 to help economies rebound.

Government borrowing to keep economics alive during pandemic lockdowns will boost euro zone public debt to 102.4% of GDP this year from 100% in 2020. It will only edge lower to 100.8% in 2022, the Commission forecast. The aggregate euro zone budget deficit is to balloon to 8% of GDP this year before halving to 3.% in 2022.

Inflation, which the ECB has struggled for years to bring closer to its target of below, but close to 2%, should accelerate to 1.7% in 2021 and slow down to 1.3% in 2021.

According to estimates from Eurostat, in March 2021, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU, compared with February 2021. Economists had expected a 0.7% increase in the euro area. In February 2021, industrial production fell by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU. 

In March 2021 compared with March 2020, industrial production increased by 10.9% in the euro area and by 11.0% in the EU. Economists had expected a 11.6% increase in the euro area.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with February 2021, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.9%, energy by 1.2% and intermediate goods by 0.6%, while production of capital goods fell by 1.0% and durable consumer goods by 1.2%. In the EU, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 2.0%, intermediate goods by 1.1% and energy by 1.0%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.3% and capital goods by 0.4%.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with March 2020, production of durable consumer goods rose by 34.4%, capital goods by 16.1%, intermediate goods by 13.3%, energy by 3.3% and non durable consumer goods by 0.7%. In the EU, production of durable consumer goods rose by 34.4%, capital goods by 15.9%, intermediate goods by 13.4%, energy by 2.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.1%.

CNBC reports that according to analysts that monitor the industry, semiconductors will be in short supply for some time to come yet.

Glenn O’Donnell, a vice president research director at advisory firm Forrester, believes the shortage could last until 2023.

“Because demand will remain high and supply will remain constrained, we expect this shortage to last through 2022 and into 2023,” he wrote in a blog.

O’Donnell expects demand for PCs, which contain some of the most advanced chips, to “soften a bit” in the coming year but “not a lot.”

Meanwhile, he expects data centers, which are full of computer servers, to buy more chips in the next year after what he describes as a “dismal 2020.”

“Couple that with the unstoppable desire to instrument everything, along with continued growth in cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, and we see nothing but boom times ahead for chip demand,” said O’Donell.

Meanwhile, Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers, told that he thinks the chip shortage will last 18 months. “It’s not just autos. It’s phones. It’s the internet of everything. There’s so many goods now that have many more chips than they ever did in the past,” he said. “They’re all internet enabled.”

The car industry has been affected by the global chip shortage more than any other sector.

Reuters reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that demand for oil will exceed the output of top producers due to progress in vaccinating the world against COVID-19.

"The anticipated supply growth through the rest of this year comes nowhere close to matching our forecast for significantly stronger demand beyond the second quarter," the IEA said in its monthly report, citing increased pumping from OPEC+ countries.

Output from the OPEC and allies including Russia already lags demand for its oil by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) and that is expected to widen to a 2.5 million bpd shortfall by year's end, the IEA said.

New waves of infections in Brazil and Thailand and even India were not enough to derail the trend but could continue to affect the market, it added.

FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse discusses GBP/USD prospects.

“The fact that the SNP got only 48% of the popular constituency vote and even less of the regional list vote has led many to feel that either SNP leader Sturgeon may lack the courage to call a referendum in the near-term or that UK PM Johnson may feel empowered to push back on such demands. As far as we are concerned this issue is now closed as a GBP risk event at least till after the summer.”

“The next few months should see a strong focus on post-pandemic recovery and the rising odds not just that UK growth will be buoyant but that BOE chief economist Haldane’s view of upside inflationary risks linked to bottlenecks and strong consumption will be evident too. It is worth keeping in mind that UK inflation expectations tend traditionally to the higher side of the G10 spectrum despite the BOE having a plain vanilla 2% inflation target. So the risk of a new form of unanchored expectations should likely encourage the BOE to welcome rather than resist offsetting GBP strength.”

“We stick to a EUR/GBP 0.8400 target for now, which also allows room also for GBP/USD to test 2018 highs just shy of 1.4400.”

Reuters reports that british finance minister Rishi Sunak said he hoped domestic consumption would bounce back this year without the need for government schemes to spur spending because household incomes had been protected during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Asked if this summer would see a return of offers similar to last year's "Eat Out to Help Out" restaurant scheme, or whether he would instead trust consumers to get out and spend money, Sunak said: "As a result of the actions that we've taken over the past year, we've managed to protect a lot of household incomes."

"I think that bodes well for the rest of the year. Our plan is working, consumers have built up savings," he told reporters.

During today's Asian trading, the dollar rose against most major currencies in anticipation of the April US inflation data.

The consensus forecast of experts provides for the acceleration of inflation in the United States in April to 3.6% in annual terms - the highest since September 2011-compared with 2.6% in March.

Several factors point to an increase in inflation, including wage growth, budget incentives and higher commodity prices, experts say. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's inflation expectations indicator rose to 3.4% in April, the highest since September 2013, from 3.2% in March.

Experts believe that the acceleration of inflation may require the Federal Reserve to curtail stimulus measures earlier and faster than planned, which would support the dollar.

The pound consolidated against the US dollar, despite positive data on UK GDP. According to the report from Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 2.1% in March 2021, the fastest monthly growth since August 2020, as schools in some parts of the UK reopened throughout the month. Economists had expected a 1.3% increase. March’s GDP is 5.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, and 1.1% below the initial recovery peak in October 2020. Latest estimates also show only small revisions to GDP in January (now negative 2.5%, from negative 2.2%) and February (now growth of 0.7%, from 0.4%).

The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.15%.

According to the report from INSEE, in April 2021, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% over one month, after +0.6% in March. The manufactured good prices (–0.1% after +1.6%) and those of energy (–0.4% after +2.2%) fell back. The prices of tobacco were stable in April as in March. The service prices grew by 0.1% as in the previous month and those of food increased (+0.6% after being stable).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices advanced by 0.1% as in March.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by 1.2%, after +1.1% in March. The energy prices accelerated (+8.8% after +4.7%) and those of services accelerated slightly (+1.2% after +1.1%). The tobacco prices grew at the same rate as in the previous month (+5.8%). The decrease in manufactured good prices was maintained at the same level as in March (–0.2%). The food prices fell back (–0.3% after +0.9%).

Year on year, core inflation grew, in April, up to +1.0% after +0.8% in March. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 0.2% over one month after +0.7% in the previous month; year on year, it increased by 1.6%, after +1.4% in March.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2257 (4349)

$1.2230 (2422)

$1.2208 (2752)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2130

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2103 (317)

$1.2080 (763)

$1.2052 (1034)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 4 is 59789 contracts (according to data from May, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (4349);

GBP/USD

$1.4285 (1255)

$1.4237 (2601)

$1.4204 (1079)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4131

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4049 (124)

$1.4021 (205)

$1.3990 (291)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 4 is 22161 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (2696);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 4 is 19593 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (3731);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.88 versus 0.84 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said that the inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, stood at +2.0% in April 2021. The inflation rate increased for the fourth month in a row after the temporary reduction of the value added tax rates had ended. That level was last recorded in April 2019. Destatis also reports that consumer prices were up 0.7% compared with March 2021.

The prices of goods (total) increased by 2.6% between April 2020 and April 2021. Energy product prices were 7.9% higher than a year earlier, after +4.8% in March 2021. In addition to the CO2 charge introduced at the beginning of the year, the decrease in energy product prices of a year earlier had an impact on the inflation rates (base effect). Compared with a year ago, higher prices were recorded especially for motor fuels (+23.3%) and heating oil (+21.1%), while electricity prices declined slightly (-0.2%). Food prices rose by 1.9%. Higher prices than a year earlier were recorded, for example, for confectionery (+3.1%) and also dairy products and butter (+2.5%). Marked price rises were observed for plants and flowers (+7.5%), coffee products (+5.1%) and tobacco products (+4,5%). However, notable price decreases were recorded for mobile phones (-8.3%).

The year-on-year increases in energy product prices had a clear upward effect on the inflation rate. Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.4% in April 2021; excluding the prices of heating oil and motor fuels, it would have been only +1.2%.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, monthly production grew by 1.8% between February 2021 and March 2021 but remained 1.8% below its February 2020 level, the last month of "normal" trading conditions prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Economists had expected a 1.0% increase.

The growth in production was driven by increases of 2.1% in manufacturing, 1.1% in water supply and sewerage, and 2.5% in mining and quarrying; these were offset partially by a fall in electricity and gas of 0.2%.

The 2.1% rise in manufacturing over the month was driven by higher output in 10 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors, the largest being a rise of 8.3% in manufacturing of machinery and equipment.

Production output for the three months to March 2021 (Quarter 1 2021) fell by 0.4% compared with the three months to December 2020 (Quarter 4 2020).

The coronavirus pandemic has had a generally negative impact on production output, although each sector has been affected differently: manufacturing output remains 2.2% below its February 2020 level and mining and quarrying is 10.2% below; however, electricity and gas is 1.9% above its February 2020 level and water supply and sewerage is 3.6% above.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 2.1% in March 2021, the fastest monthly growth since August 2020, as schools in some parts of the UK reopened throughout the month. Economists had expected a 1.3% increase.

The service sector grew by 1.9% in March 2021, with schools re-opening across England and Wales and retail trade sales continuing to show strength.

Output in the production sector grew by 1.8% in March 2021, as manufacturing grew for a second consecutive month, at 2.1%.

The construction sector grew by 5.8% in March 2021, driven by growth in both new work and repair and maintenance. The growth in construction (and indeed manufacturing) reflect businesses continuing to adapt, including development of COVID-19 secure environments to operate in.

March’s GDP is 5.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, and 1.1% below the initial recovery peak in October 2020.

Latest estimates also show only small revisions to GDP in January (now negative 2.5%, from negative 2.2%) and February (now growth of 0.7%, from 0.4%).