Forex-novosti i prognoze od 19-01-2021

FXStreet reports that in the view of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is unlikely to deviate from the current accomodative way as this would cause an unwanted appreciation of the yen. 

“For now, the BoJ will want to promote an image of a Bank focussed on policy stimulus. Over 60% of the economy is now in a state of emergency due to an increase in covid cases and any divergence from the accommodative paths set by the ECB and the Fed could result in an unwanted appreciation of the JPY."

“We currently expect USD/JPY to trade mostly in the 103/104 range in the months ahead.” 

This means that the trial will start during the first weeks of Biden's administration.

FXStreet reports that economists at Standard Chartered have improved their 2021 and 2020 GDP growth forecasts for New Zealand, as the GDP growth has already rebounded to pre-COVID levels. They also expect the RBNZ to keep policy rates on hold through 2021 given the better outlook for 2021.

“We raise our 2021 and 2020 GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% and -2.7% from 4.2% and -4.8%, respectively, to account for better-than-expected growth in 2020.”

“Several factors should continue to support the growth recovery in 2021, including the global economic reopening, relatively successful containment of COVID-19 domestically, rising asset prices, expansionary fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy.” 

“We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, but further rate cuts are unlikely given the better-than-expected growth recovery so far and significant easing in 2020. However, should economic conditions deteriorate or deployed unconventional tools prove less effective than expected, we see a risk of the RBNZ lowering the OCR by 15bps in May.”

Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday the wholesale sales rose 0.7 percent m-o-m to CAD67.42 million in November, following an unrevised 1.0 percent m-o-m climb in October.

Economists had forecast a 1.0 percent m-o-m gain for November.

According to the report, sales increased in five of seven subsectors, led by the machinery, equipment and supplies (+2.8 percent m-o-m) and the building material and supplies (+1.1 percent m-o-m) subsectors, primarily reflecting higher domestic sales of the Canadian goods, as both imports and exports of key commodities declined in November.

Meanwhile, sales of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts and accessories went down 1.8 percent m-o-m, recording their first monthly decline after six months of gains. Excluding motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector, wholesale sales rose 1.2 percent m-o-m.  

In y-o-y terms, wholesale sales surged 7.7 percent in November.

Wholesale inventories dropped 0.6 m-o-m in November, recording their second monthly decline in a row. Inventories fell in all seven subsectors in November, with the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector (-1.1 percent m-o-m) recording the largest decrease. The inventory-to-sales ratio also fell for the second straight month, reaching 1.33 in November, down from in October. This was the lowest level since May 2018. In y-o-y terms, wholesale inventories declined 2.2 percent in November.

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday, as inventors prepared for Wednesday’s inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, while awaiting the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s speech at her Senate confirmation hearing later today, urging the U.S. lawmakers to "act big" on fiscal stimulus to avert “a longer, more painful recession”.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

McDonald's (MCD) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; target $237

Starbucks (SBUX) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; target $115

American Express (AXP) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan; target $148

Facebook (FB) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; target raised to $325

Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales fell 0.6 percent m-o-m in November to CAD53.66 billion, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in October. This was the first decline since August.

Economists had anticipated a decrease of 0.1 percent m-o-m for November.

According to the survey, sales dropped in 5 of 21 industries, driven by the transportation equipment industry, which recorded a 9.1 percent m-o-m plunge, mainly due to declines in sales of the aerospace product and parts (-23.8 percent m-o-m), motor vehicle (-5.7 percent m-o-m), and motor vehicle parts (-6.0 percent m-o-m) subindustries.

Overall, sales of durable goods fell 2.4 percent m-o-m in November, while sales of non-durable goods rose 1.5 percent m-o-m.

FXStreet reports that the Credit Suisse analyst team suggests that the S&P 500 Index has scope to see further near-term consolidation but the broader trend still leans higher for an eventual move to 3900. 

“S&P 500 has removed near-term price and 13-day average support at 3777/65 and although a bullish ‘outside week’ remains in place this raises the prospect of further near-term consolidation/corrective weakness prior to the broader uptrend resuming.” 

“Resistance is seen at 3785/89 initially, with a break above 3796 needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a retest of the 3827/23 highs. Above here remains needed to reassert the core uptrend with resistance seen next at 3866/68 and eventually the ‘measured triangle objective’ at 3900, from which we will then look for a lengthier consolidation/correction to emerge.” 

“Support moves to 3750 initially, then the lower end of the recent price gap at 3742/38. Beneath here can further increase the immediate downside risk for a fall to 3705/3695, but with fresh buyers expected here.” 

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $12.08 per share (versus $4.69 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.36 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $11.740 bln (+17.9% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $10.069 bln.

GS rose to $309.00 (+2.65%) in pre-market trading.

USD fell against its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday as market participants expected that Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden's nominee for the U.S. Treasury Secretary, would urge the U.S. lawmakers to "act big" on the next coronavirus relief package to avert “a longer, more painful recession” at her Senate confirmation hearing later today. 

According to the remarks, which were released in advance of Yellen's appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, during the testimony, she will also reiterate the commitment of the new administration to a market-determined rate for the U.S. currency.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.29% to 90.51.

FXStreet reports that the Credit Suisse analyst team notes that USD/CHF is pushing hard into the key 0.8918/26 highs, above which would trigger a small base to confirm further corrective strength.

“USD/CHF has been pushing hard into the key 0.8918/26 highs over the past couple of days, further increasing the risk of a base and the corrective recovery phase that we have been calling for. 

“A clear break above the December highs at 0.8918/26 would see a small intraday ‘head and shoulders’ base completed to open up further upside, with the next level at the 55-day average at 0.8947/64, then 0.9027/28, which is a cluster of medium term retracement levels. Its worth highlighting that the ‘measured base objective’ is at 0.9083, where we would look for a solid cap.” 

Bank of America (BAC) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $0.59 per share (versus $0.74 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.54 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $20.100 bln (-9.9% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $20.762 bln.

BAC fell to $32.96 (-0.15%) in pre-market trading.

January 19

Before the Open:

Bank of America (BAC). Consensus EPS $0.54, Consensus Revenues $20761.59 mln

Goldman Sachs (GS). Consensus EPS $7.36, Consensus Revenues $10068.72 mln

After the Close:

Netflix (NFLX). Consensus EPS $1.41, Consensus Revenues $6623.82 mln

January 20

Before the Open:

Morgan Stanley (MS). Consensus EPS $1.28, Consensus Revenues $11532.18 mln

Procter & Gamble (PG). Consensus EPS $1.51, Consensus Revenues $19220.77 mln

UnitedHealth (UNH). Consensus EPS $2.38, Consensus Revenues $64981.85 mln

After the Close:

Alcoa (AA). Consensus EPS $0.07, Consensus Revenues $2371.61 mln

United Airlines (UAL). Consensus EPS -$6.42, Consensus Revenues $3470.93 mln

January 21

Before the Open:

Travelers (TRV). Consensus EPS $3.14, Consensus Revenues $7421.80 mln

After the Close:

IBM (IBM). Consensus EPS $2.05, Consensus Revenues $20569.10 mln

Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $1.11, Consensus Revenues $17489.10 mln

FXStreet notes that EUR/USD is holding the 38.2% retracement of its November/January rally and 55-day average at 1.2065/54, and analysts at Credit Suisse look for this to hold for now. Meanwhile, resistance moves lower to 1.2134, then 1.2167.

“EUR/USD has sold-off sharply after confirming a small ‘head & shoulders’ top below price support at 1.2132/22 with weakness having already extended to our first downside objective at 1.2065/54 – the December low, 38.2% retracement of the November/January rally and rising 55-day average. We continue to look for an attempt to find a floor here for now and for a recovery to emerge with resistance seen at 1.2134 initially, then the 13-day average and price resistance at 1.2167/80, which we look to then cap.” 

“Above 1.2167/80, EUR/USD can see a deeper recovery to the ‘neckline’ to the top at 1.2223/31, but with this needing to be cleared to negate the top to suggest the corrective setback is coming to an end for a move back to the 1.2350/55 highs.” 

“Below 1.2054 on a closing basis, the pair can see support next at the September high at 1.2011 ahead of the 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1945."

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), President-elect Joe Biden's nominee for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is to appear before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, will also call the lawmakers to put aside concerns about the mounting national debt. 

“Economists don’t always agree, but I think there is a consensus now: Without further action, we risk a longer, more painful recession now - and long-term scarring of the economy later,” Ms. Yellen says in the text of remarks to the Senate Finance Committee as reviewed by WSJ.

"Neither the President-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country's debt burden," she adds. "But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big. In the long run, I believe the benefits will far outweigh the costs, especially if we care about helping people who have been struggling for a very long time."

FXStreet reports that according to economists at Credit Suisse, the AUD/USD pair is set to complete an irregular top below 0.7666/43, with next support then seen at 0.7502, which is expected to provide a solid floor.

“AUD/USD is starting to succumb to its dramatic loss of momentum and with a momentum top now confirmed, we shift from our cautious stance towards a preference for a deeper correction lower.”

“A top would be confirmed below 0.7666/43, which would suggest a deeper fall back to 0.7603/7599, then the 0.7557 low. The size of the small top suggests a move towards the 55-day average and key price low at 0.7502 /7462 is possible, however we would expect the market to find a solid floor here in line with the broader uptrend.” 

eFXdata reports that Danske Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook and targets at 1.08 in 1-3months, and 1.10 in 6-12 months.

"Following the relief rally in EUR/CHF since early summer 2020, spot has been unchanged and intervention remains the key policy tool. Swiss policy rates are thus set to stay unchanged at the longstanding -0.75%. Going into Q1, EUR/USD took a step lower and with it EUR/CHF too. Currently, upside risk to European inflation and demand seems very limited (due to lockdowns). In turn, the near-term potential to see a weaker CHF also appears limited," Danske notes. 

"We see balanced risks to EUR/CHF near term. If EUR/CHF is to move higher, it would be likely to happen in tandem with opening up the European economy from H2 onward," Danske adds.

FXStreet reports that economists at Standard Chartered expect the EUR/USD pair is set to see dips but should hold above the 1.2000 level.

“We expect USD to move lower through 2021, but also expect short-term rebounds along the way. We see EUR/USD long positions being, by far, the most elevated and significant for broad USD. In that context, additional drivers of a near-term decline are likely to be a recent rise in US Treasury yields, a steeper US yield curve and a widening yield differential. The large fiscal stimulus planned by the incoming Biden administration could potentially boost short-term US sentiment and economic outperformance.”

“We expect robust supports around 1.2060 and 1.2000. A mild USD rally could end there. A break lower would suggest a deeper decline into 1.1600-1.1900 window.”

According to the report from Eurostat, in November 2020 compared with October 2020, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU. In October 2020, production in construction remained stable in the euro area and increased by 0.7% in the EU. In November 2020 compared with November 2019, production in construction decreased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU.

In the euro area in November 2020, compared with October 2020, civil engineering increased by 3.1% and building construction by 1.0%. In the EU, civil engineering increased by 3.0% and building construction by 0.7%.

In the euro area in November 2020, compared with November 2019, building construction decreased by 1.6% while civil engineering increased by 0.4%. In the EU building construction decreased by 1.2% and civil engineering by 0.2%.

According to the report from ZEW, the Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in the current January 2021 survey, climbing 6.8 points to a new reading of 61.8 points. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany increased somewhat, and currently stands at minus 66.4 points, 0.1 points higher than in December 2020. “Despite the uncertainty about the further course of the lockdown, the economic outlook for the German economy has improved slightly. The results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey in January show that export expectations in particular have risen significantly,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on the current expectations.

The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone increased by 3.9 points, bringing the indicator to a new level of 58.3 points in January. In contrast, the indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone dropped by 3.2 points and now stands at minus 78.9 points.

Inflation expectations are experiencing a strong increase. For the eurozone, expectations have risen by 10.9 points to a new indicator value of 51.6 points. The inflation indicator for Germany is at 58.2 points in January, 18.6 points higher than in December 2020.

FXStreet reports that according to the MUFG Bank, Yellen’s hearing is set to provide more insights on USD policy under the Biden administration but is unlikely to prove market-moving for the US dollar.

“It has been reported in advance of the hearing that Janet Yellen will argue that ‘the smartest thing we can do is act big’ as she seeks support for the Biden administration’s proposed $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package.”

“The increasing likelihood of bigger fiscal stimulus including infrastructure investment is supportive for commodity prices and related currencies. We continue to see scope for further gains in commodity-related currencies in the year ahead which should benefit as well from the strengthening global recovery once vaccines are rolled out more widely.”

“The Biden administration is expected to support a strong US dollar policy. However, we do not believe that fundamentals are as supportive for a strong US dollar, and continue to expect further weakness in the year ahead.”

According to the report from European Central Bank, the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €25 billion in November 2020, decreasing by €1 billion from the previous month. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€34 billion), services (€9 billion) and primary income (€1 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€20 billion).

In the 12 months to November 2020, the current account recorded a surplus of €231 billion (2.0% of euro area GDP), compared with a surplus of €278 billion (2.3% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to November 2019. This decline was driven by reductions in the surpluses for services (down from €65 billion to €26 billion) and for primary income (down from €53 billion to €24 billion). These developments were partly offset by a larger surplus for goods (up from €320 billion to €335 billion) and a smaller deficit for secondary income (down from €159 billion to €155 billion).

In financial account, euro area residents’ net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities totalled €526 billion and non-residents’ net acquisitions of euro area portfolio investment securities totalled €231 billion in 12 months to November 2020

FXStreet reports that Commerzbank analysts discuss the outlook for EUR/USD

“EUR/USD has sold off to, tested and so far held the 55-day ma at 1.2058, intraday rebounds are indicated to struggle around 1.2140. Beyond the the 55-day ma at 1.2058 we would allow for losses to extend to 1.2014 the September high and even the 1.1969 2020-2021 uptrend, which we suspect will hold the initial test. Assuming that the uptrend (1.1969) and 23.6% retracement of the move up since March 2020 (1.1945) holds; medium-term the market continues to track higher whilst targeting the 1.2556 2018 high and 1.2624.”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell against the euro, but rose against the yen.

The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 0.15%.

The market is focused on hearings in the US Senate Finance Committee, where Janet Yellen, ex-Chairman of the Federal reserve system, nominated by US President-elect Joe Biden for the post of Treasury Secretary, will speak.

The Senate Finance Committee must approve Yellen's candidacy for the post of head of the US Treasury before the issue is put to a vote in the Senate.

According to the text prepared for Yellen's speech, she will call on lawmakers to support large-scale measures to stimulate the economy. According to Yellen, the US economy could face a longer and more painful recession without new stimulus.

Yellen will also have to answer questions from senators, including possibly related to monetary policy. On the eve of the WSJ wrote, citing its sources, that Yellen will declare his commitment to the approach in which the dollar is regulated by the market.

According to the report from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), in December 2020, demand for new passenger cars in the European Union declined by 3.3% to 1,031,070 units. The four largest EU markets, however, recorded very different results. Italy and France both suffered double-digit losses, with car registrations down 14.9% and 11.8% respectively, in the last month of the year. By contrast, Germany posted a solid gain (+9.9%) and Spain’s performance remained stable, as the number of registrations was more or less the same as in December 2019.

Looking at full-year 2020 results, the EU passenger car market contracted by 23.7% to 9.9 million units as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, containment measures – including full-scale lockdowns and other restrictions throughout the year – had an unprecedented impact on car sales across the European Union.

2020 saw the biggest yearly drop in car demand since records began, with new-car registrations falling by 3 million units compared to 2019. All 27 EU markets recorded double-digit declines throughout 2020. Among the region’s biggest car markets, Spain posted the sharpest drop (-32.3%), followed closely by Italy (-27.9%) and France (-25.5%), while full-year losses were significant but less pronounced in Germany (-19.1%).

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with December 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.3%. The average annual inflation in 2020 reached –3.0%. 

The average annual inflation for 2020 corresponds to the rate of change between the annual average for 2020 and that for 2019. The annual average is equal to the arithmetic mean of the 12 monthly indices of the calendar year. The decline of 3.0% in 2020 is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and pharmaceutical products. While prices for domestic producers declined by 1.6%, import prices fell by 5.6%. The average annual inflation reached –1.4% in 2019 and +2.4% in 2018.

In particular, higher prices for petroleum products and scrap were responsible for the increase in the producer price index compared with the previous month. Non-ferrous metal products also increased in price. In contrast, price decreases were seen for slaughter pigs and pork. In the import price index, increasing prices compared with November 2020 were seen in particular for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Higher prices were also seen for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts. In contrast, pharmaceutical preparations were cheaper.

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.5% on an annual average in 2020 compared with 2019. The increase was markedly below the relevant level in the previous year (2019: +1.4%). Destatis also reports that a lower annual rate of price increase was last measured in 2009 during the financial and economic crisis (+0.3%). In December 2020, the inflation rate, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, stood at -0.3%. This was the fifth time that the rate was negative in 2020.

One of the reasons for the low annual rate of price increase was the temporary value added tax reduction. This measure of the Federal Government's stimulus package was implemented on 1 July 2020. It had a downward impact on the consumer prices as a whole and differing effects on the individual groups of products in the second half of 2020.

The prices of energy products were markedly down by 4.8% in 2020 year on year, following a 1.4% rise in 2019. Declining prices were especially recorded for heating oil (-25.9%) and motor fuels (-9.9%).

Food prices rose above average in 2020 compared with 2019 (+2.4%). The price increase slowed during the year when the value added tax rates were reduced. 

In 2020 the prices of goods (total) were down by 0.4% on 2019. The prices of services (total) rose above average by 1.3% (including net rent exclusive of heating expenses: +1.4%) on an annual average in 2020 compared with 2019. 

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2199 (243)

$1.2171 (592)

$1.2148 (144)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2094

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2022 (1077)

$1.1995 (2877)

$1.1962 (3260)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 47865 contracts (according to data from January, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (3260);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3795 (1361)

$1.3760 (1314)

$1.3701 (1125)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3607

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3484 (777)

$1.3457 (260)

$1.3427 (1688)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 10966 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (1724);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 19419 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2183);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.77 versus 1.78 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.