Forex-novosti i prognoze od 20-01-2016

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

S&P/ASX 200 4,841.53 -61.54 -1.26%

TOPIX 1,338.97 -51.44 -3.70%

SHANGHAI COMP 2,976.52 -31.22 -1.04%

HANG SENG 18,886.3 -749.51 -3.82%

FTSE 100 5,673.58 -203.22 -3.46 %

CAC 40 4,124.95 -147.31 -3.45 %

Xetra DAX 9,391.64 -272.57 -2.82 %

S&P 500 1,859.33 -22.00 -1.17 %

NASDAQ Composite 4,471.69 -5.26 -0.12 %

Dow Jones 15,766.74 -249.28 -1.56 %

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0888 -0,17%

GBP/USD $1,4190 +0,24%

USD/CHF Chf1,004 +0,09%

USD/JPY Y116,94 -0,58%

EUR/JPY Y127,33 -0,75%

GBP/JPY Y165,91 -0,34%

AUD/USD $0,6905 -0,03%

NZD/USD $0,6428 +0,28%

USD/CAD C$1,4502 -0,52%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m November -3.0%

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation January 4.0%

05:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November 1.0% -0.7%

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims January 2263 2248

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 284 278

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) January -5.7 -5.7

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January -10.2 -5

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 0.234

U.S. stocks surged back to pare the biggest one-day selloff in five months, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average cutting a loss of 550 points by two-thirds as investors speculated the rout that's wiped more than $15 trillion from global equities has gone too far too fast. A plunge that took oil past $27 a barrel sparked earlier selling that brought global equities near a bear market and fueled haven demand.

The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index shaved losses of more than 3.5 percent as chip shares and those with the most short interest rallied. The afternoon surge wasn't enough to push either into the green at the close, and both ended at the lowest levels in at least 15 months.

Equities markets buffeted by everything from China to oil and rising interest rates are off to the worst start to a year on record at the same time the Federal Reserve and other central banks have signaled a higher threshold before they'll provide relief. The rout in the oil patch is rippling through markets amid growing signs that credit quality is worsening. U.S. bonds now predict the slowest inflation since May 2009 as investors pile into haven assets.

Energy shares fell 2.9 percent, reversing a slide that was deeper than 5 percent. Indexes of chipmakers and consumer durables producers climbed as investors bought shares of some of the most shorted companies.

The Canadian dollar regained ground lost against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged. However, the bank was downgraded forecast GDP growth in 2016.

The Bank of Canada left the target value of the one-day interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. So he ignored the appeals of a number of economists to mitigate the monetary policy to stimulate the slowing national economy.

According to the Bank of Canada, the country's economic growth in the 4th quarter of 2015, probably stopped "due to a temporary deterioration of the US economy, low investment companies and a number of other temporary factors." In addition, the central bank of the country believe that now the Canadian economy is in the midst of transition, during which the economy is reoriented to export energy to the industry that are not related to resources. Growth in non-oil sectors of activity due to the increase in demand from the United States, a decrease in the Canadian dollar and soft policies in the monetary and fiscal spheres.

The US dollar shows decline against other major currencies after the publication of weak US economic data, while concern about falling oil prices continue to support demand for the yen and the Swiss franc as a safe haven.

The US Labor Department reported that consumer prices unexpectedly fell in December, as the rise in prices in the service sector has been offset by falling energy prices. According to the consumer price index decreased by 0.1 percent after no change in November. Despite the fall in the last month, the consumer price index rose by 0.7 per cent per annum, recording the biggest gain in a year. This change followed an increase of 0.5 percent per annum in November. Experts note that the faster growth in prices due to the effect of the comparison. However, further growth can be limited due to lower oil prices, which are now close to 12-year lows. Economists had expected the CPI to remain unchanged in monthly terms, but increased by 0.8 per cent per annum.

Housing starts and building permits fell at the end of December after a significant increase in the previous month. The last change, along with other weak data reinforces concerns about the state of the economy. The report from the Commerce Department showed that, taking into account fluctuations bookmark new homes fell by 2.5 percent, amounting to 1,149 thousand at the same time. (In terms of annual growth). Meanwhile, the index for November was revised upward - up to 1179 thousand. To 1173 thousand. Experts expect that to grow to 1,200 bookmarks thousand.

The yen was supported as a safe haven, as oil again dropped below the price of $ 28 a barrel to the lowest since 2003 after the International Energy Agency said that the off-season warm weather and increase in supply will keep oversaturation of the oil market, at least until the end of 2016. A significant decrease in the stock markets of Asia also boosted demand for safe haven. Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan Suga said that the drop in oil prices favorably affects the Japanese economy. Earlier the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda assured markets that the Bank shall immediately take steps, including the easing of monetary policy if inflation worsens the situation.

Focus was also the January economic report the government of Japan. As it became known, the government left unchanged overall assessment of the economic situation in the country, saying that the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace. In addition, the Government has recognized the presence of some of the weaknesses of the economy and the need to monitor market fluctuations. In addition, the government raised the assessment of the situation in industrial production, while noting some weakness in other segments of the economy, such as the export sector.

The pound traded mixed against the dollar, but in general remained within a narrow range. Moderate pressure is applied to data on the labor market in Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported that during the three months (to November) wage growth in the UK slowed to the lowest level since February 2015. This change indicates that the Bank of England is likely to will not rush to increase interest rates. The report stated that the average earnings of workers (including bonuses) increased by 2.0 percent in the three months to November. Experts forecast an increase of 2.1% after rising 2.4% in the period from August to October. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 1.9%, which was above analysts' estimates (1.8%), but more slowly than in the previous three months (2.0). Separately, in November, the total wages in the private sector, for a change which is closely following the Bank of England increased by 2.2 per cent against 2.1 per cent in October. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent (the lowest value since the beginning of 2006), compared with 5.2 percent in the three months to October. The ONS also said that employment jumped by 267,000, recording the third largest gain since the beginning of statistics in 1971. Given the recent changes in the employment rate rose to a new high of 74.0 percent. The number of unemployed was 1.68 million, up 99 thousand. Less than in the period of June to August and 239 thousand. Less than the same period in 2014.

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar, having lost almost all previously earned position. The pressure on the currency was data published by ZEW institute and Credit Suisse. They showed that the index of Swiss economic expectations declined significantly in January, its lowest level since July 2015, which was caused by deteriorating assessments on economic growth and stock market returns. The survey was conducted among 37 analysts from 4 to 18 January. According to the index of investor expectations fell this month to -3 points compared to 16.6 points in December. The indicator of the current situation worsened in January, from 5.8 points to -8.5 points. The report also reported that nearly half of analysts expect growth in gross domestic product of Switzerland from 1% to 1.5% this year. Recall that in October 2015, about 60% of the analysts foresee growth in 2016 more than 1%. In addition, 87% of respondents said they expected to reduce or zero change in consumer prices this year against 71% in the previous survey in October.

Major U.S. stock-indexes moved deep into the red in volatile trading on Wednesday, extending this year's selloff as oil prices continued to plummet unabated. U.S. crude prices sank 6.3% and Brent crude fell 5.5% as a supply glut bumped up against bearish financial news that deepened worries over demand. Besides collapsing oil prices, fears of a slowdown in China, the world's second-largest economy and a key market for U.S. companies, has also weighed on equities and commodities, leading to turbulent start to the year on Wall Street.

All Dow stocks in negative area (30 of 30). Top looser - Chevron Corporation (CVX, -6,77%).

All S&P sectors also in negative area. Top looser - Basic Materials (-5,5%).

At the moment:

Dow 15378.00 -535.00 -3.36%

S&P 500 1804.50 -68.50 -3.66%

Nasdaq 100 3984.25 -160.25 -3.87%

Oil 27.58 -1.99 -6.73%

Gold 1107.10 +18.00 +1.65%

U.S. 10yr 1.96 -0.08

Stock indices traded lower on a drop in oil prices. Oil prices fell on concerns over the global oil oversupply and on concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday that there are limits to the central bank's monetary policy. He pointed out that the ECB's quantitative easing was working.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its labour market data on Wednesday. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in the September to November quarter from 5.2% in the August to October quarter. It was the lowest reading since three months to October 2005.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.2%.

The employment rate was 74%. It was the highest reading since 1971.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 1.9% in the September to November quarter, beating expectations for a 1.8% rise, after a 2.0% gain in the August to October quarter.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 2.0% in the September to November quarter, missing expectations for a gain of 2.1%, after a 2.4% increase in the August to October quarter.

The Bank of England monitors closely the wages growth it considers when to start hiking its interest rate.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 5,673.58 -203.22 -3.46 %

DAX 9,391.64 -272.57 -2.82 %

CAC 40 4,124.95 -147.31 -3.45 %

Polish equity market closed lower on Wednesday. The broad market measure, the WIG Index, lost 1.37%. Except for utilities (+1.66%) and construction sector (+0.36%), every sector in the WIG Index declined, with materials (-3.17%) lagging behind.

The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, fell by 1.25%. Within the index components, FMCG wholesaler EUROCASH (WSE: EUR) recorded the biggest drop, down 4.33%. It was followed by bank HANDLOWY (WSE: BHW), genco TAURON PE (WSE: TPE) and footwear retailer CCC (WSE: CCC), plunging by 3.97%, 3.96% and 3.88% respectively. On the other side of the ledger, gencos ENEA (WSE: ENA), PGE (WSE: PGE) and ENERGA (WSE: ENG) led the gainers, jumping by 2.67%-4.1% after Poland's energy minister said he saw no need to change state-run energy companies' dividend policy in the near term. Other biggest gainers were banks ALIOR (WSE: ALR) and PKO BP (WSE: PKO), advancing 3.45% and 1.38% respectively.

Oil prices declined on concerns over the global oil oversupply. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday that oil prices will remain under pressure.

"It is the third year in a row we have more supply than demand. Prices will be still under pressure. I don't see any reason why we have a surprise increase in the price in 2016," he said.

Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. crude oil inventories data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its U.S. oil inventories data later in the day, and U.S. oil inventories data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected on Thursday.

WTI crude oil for March delivery dropped to $26.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude oil for March rose to $27.93 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Gold increased due to higher demand for safe-haven assets as oil prices continued to declined, and the U.S. dollar and global stock markets fell.

Market participants eyed the U.S. economic data. The U.S. Labor Department released consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The U.S. consumer price inflation declined 0.1% in December, missing expectations for a flat reading, after a flat reading in November.

The decline was mainly driven by lower energy prices, which slid 2.4% in December.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased to 0.7% in December from 0.5% in November, missing expectations for a rise to 0.8%.

The U.S. consumer price inflation excluding food and energy gained 0.1% in December, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.2% increase in November.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy increased to 2.1% in December from 2.0% in November, in line with expectations.

The increase of the consumer price index excluding food and energy was driven by higher prices of rents and medical care.

The U.S. Commerce Department released the housing market data on Wednesday. Housing starts in the U.S. declined 2.5% to 1.149 million annualized rate in December from a 1.179 million pace in November, missing expectations for an increase to 1.200 million.

The fall was driven by declines in starts of single-family and multifamily homes.

Building permits in the U.S. fell 3.9% to 1.232 million annualized rate in December from a 1.282 million pace in November, beating expectations for a 1,200 pace.

February futures for gold on the COMEX today rose to 1103.00 dollars per ounce.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in its report on Wednesday that capital outflows from emerging economies were larger than previously expected. Emerging markets faced net capital outflows of $735 billion in 2015, up from $111 billion in 2014 and up from the previously estimate of $540 billion.

The institute expects total net outflows including errors and omissions of $448 billion in 2016.

China faced the highest outflows, which totalled $676 billion in 2015, according to the IIF.

"The 2015 outflows largely reflected efforts by Chinese corporates to reduce dollar exposure after years of heavy dollar borrowing, as expectations of persistent renminbi appreciation were replaced by rising concerns about a weakening currency," the institute noted.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said on its website on Wednesday that it plans to inject 150 billion yuan ($23 billion) into market to boost liquidity via short-term liquidity operations (SLO).

The interest rate on the 6-day lines of credit will be 2.25%, according to the central bank.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) released its annual World Employment and Social Outlook report on Tuesday. The ILO said that the global unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.7% in 2017 from 5.8% in 2014-16, driven by job creation in the U.S. and Europe.

The unemployment rate for developed economies declined to 6.7% in 2015 from 7.1% in 2014.

According to the ILO, emerging economies pose risk to the world of work.

"The significant slowdown in emerging economies coupled with a sharp decline in commodity prices is having a dramatic effect on the world of work," ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

Eurostat release its preliminary house price index for the Eurozone on Wednesday. The index increased 1.0% in the third quarter, after a 1.8% gain in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, house prices climbed 2.3% in the third quarter, after a 1.6% rise in the second quarter.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, noting that the current monetary policy is appropriate. This decision was expected by analysts.

The BoC expects the Canadian economy to expand 1.4% in 2016 and 2.4% in 2017.

Inflation is expected to rise to about 2% by early 2017 once the effect of low oil prices will dissipate.

According to the central bank, low prices for oil and other commodities weighed on the Canadian economy.

The BoC noted that the Canadian labour market remains resilient.

Risks around the inflation are roughly balanced, the central bank said.

The BoC added that "vulnerabilities in the household sector continue to edge higher".

The U.S. Labor Department released its real earnings data on Wednesday. Average weekly earnings rose 0.1% in December, after a 0.1% decrease in November.

The increase was driven by rises in in average hourly earnings.

Average hourly earnings climbed 0.1% in December, after a 0.1% rise in November.

On a yearly basis, real average weekly earnings increased 1.6% in December, while hourly earnings rose 1.8%.

U.S. stock-index futures tumbled.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 16,416.19 -632.18 -3.71%

Hang Seng 18,886.3 -749.51 -3.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,976.52 -31.22 -1.04%

FTSE 5,725.79 -151.01 -2.57%

CAC 4,158.24 -114.02 -2.67%

DAX 9,449.87 -214.34 -2.22%

Crude oil $27.83 (-2.21%)

Gold $1100.60 (+1.06%)

The U.S. Labor Department released consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The U.S. consumer price inflation declined 0.1% in December, missing expectations for a flat reading, after a flat reading in November.

The decline was mainly driven by lower energy prices, which slid 2.4% in December.

Shelter costs climbed 0.2% in December.

Gasoline prices fell 2.4% in December, while food prices decreased 0.2%.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased to 0.7% in December from 0.5% in November, missing expectations for a rise to 0.8%.

The U.S. consumer price inflation excluding food and energy gained 0.1% in December, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.2% increase in November.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy increased to 2.1% in December from 2.0% in November, in line with expectations.

The increase of the consumer price index excluding food and energy was driven by higher prices of rents and medical care.

In 2015 as whole, consumer prices rose 0.7%, after a 0.8% increase in 2014.

The U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy increased 2.1% in 2015, after a 1.6% gain in 2014.

The consumer price index is not preferred Fed's inflation measure.

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

The U.S. Commerce Department released the housing market data on Wednesday. Housing starts in the U.S. declined 2.5% to 1.149 million annualized rate in December from a 1.179 million pace in November, missing expectations for an increase to 1.200 million.

November's figure was revised up from 1.173 million units.

The fall was driven by declines in starts of single-family and multifamily homes.

Housing market benefits from the strengthening of the labour market. But there is a shortage of houses available for sale.

Building permits in the U.S. fell 3.9% to 1.232 million annualized rate in December from a 1.282 million pace in November, beating expectations for a 1,200 pace.

Starts of single-family homes decreased 3.3% in December. Building permits for single-family homes were up 1.8%.

Starts of multifamily buildings fell 1.0% in December. Permits for multi-family housing dropped 11.4%.

USDJPY 117.00 (USD 300m) 118.00 (334m)

EURUSD 1.0800 ( EUR 1.1bln) 1.0850 (622m) 1.0875 (400m) 1.0900 (786m)

GBPUSD 1.4040 (GBP 356m)

AUDUSD 0.6900 (AUD 208m) 0.7000 (261m)

EURJPY 127.10 (230m) 128.80 (210m)

Statistics Canada released manufacturing shipments on Wednesday. Canadian manufacturing shipments rose 1.0% in November, beating expectations for a 0.5% increase, after a 1.3% decline in October. October's figure was revised down from a 1.1% fall.

The increase was driven by higher motor vehicle sales, which rose 3.8% in November.

Inventories were flat in November.

Statistics Canada released wholesale sales figures on Wednesday. Wholesale sales climbed 1.8% in November, exceeding expectations for a 0.5% gain, after a 0.5% decline in October. October's figure was revised up from a 0.6% decrease.

The increase was mainly driven by higher sales in the motor vehicle and parts subsectors.

Sales of motor vehicle and parts were up 4.8% in November, while sales in the food, beverage and tobacco subsector rose 1.6%.

Sales in the building material and supplies subsector climbed 2.8% in November.

Inventories fell by 0.2% in November.

Goldman Sachs reported Q4 FY 2015 adjusted earnings of $4.68 per share. Diluted earnings per common share were $1.27. Analysts forecasted EPS of $3.62. In Q4 FY 2014, the company's EPS stood at $4.38.

Goldman Sachs' quarterly revenues amounted to $7.720 bln (-5.5% y/y), beating consensus estimate of $7.044 bln.

GS fell to $154.00 (-1.80%) in pre-market trading.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December -2.5% -2.2% -2.3%

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November 2.4% 2.1% 2%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November 2.0% 1.8% 1.9%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 5.2% 5.2% 5.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December -2.2 Revised From 3.9 2.5 -4.3

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January 16.6 -3

12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 21.3% 9%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the U.S. economic index. The U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to rise to 0.8% year-on-year in December from 0.5% in November.

The U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy is expected to climb to 2.1% year-on-year in December from 2.0% in November.

Housing starts in the U.S. are expected to rise to 1.200 million units in December from 1.173 million units in November.

The number of building permits is expected to decrease to 1.200 million units in December from 1.282 million units in November.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday that there are limits to the central bank's monetary policy. He pointed out that the ECB's quantitative easing was working.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the U.K. labour market data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its labour market data on Wednesday. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in the September to November quarter from 5.2% in the August to October quarter. It was the lowest reading since three months to October 2005.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.2%.

The employment rate was 74%. It was the highest reading since 1971.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 1.9% in the September to November quarter, beating expectations for a 1.8% rise, after a 2.0% gain in the August to October quarter.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 2.0% in the September to November quarter, missing expectations for a gain of 2.1%, after a 2.4% increase in the August to October quarter.

The Bank of England monitors closely the wages growth it considers when to start hiking its interest rate.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar ahead of the release of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Analysts expect the central bank to keep its interest rate unchanged.

Canadian manufacturing shipments are expected to rise 0.5% in November, after a 1.1% decline in October.

Wholesales sales in Canada are expected to increase 0.5% in November, after a 0.6% decline in October.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. A survey by the ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group showed on Wednesday that Switzerland's economic sentiment index plunged to -3.0 in January from 16.6 in December. It was the lowest reading since July 2015.

"Half of the analysts surveyed expect economic growth in Switzerland to stay unchanged. Meanwhile, among the other respondents, the share of analysts who anticipate deterioration exceeds the share of those expecting to see a pickup in economic activity by only three percentage points," the ZEW said.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.0897

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -1.1% 0.5%

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m November -0.6% 0.5%

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts December 1173 1200

13:30 U.S. Building Permits December 1282 1200

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m December 0.0% 0%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y December 0.5% 0.8%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December 2% 2.1%

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 0.234

16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 54.7

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0985 1.1000 1.1025 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100 1.1130 1.1160

Bids 1.0900 1.0880 1.0855-60 1.0840 1.0825 1.0800

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4180 1.4200 1.4225-30 1.4250 1.4280 1.4300 1.4325-30 1.4350

Bids 1.4120-25 1.4100 1.4085 1.4060 1.4030 1.4000

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7775-80 0.7800 0.7830 0.7850 0.7875 0.7900

Bids 0.7720-25 0.7700 0.7685 0.7650 0.7630 0.7600 0.7580-85 0.7550

EUR/JPY

Offers 127.50 127.80 128.00 128.30 128.50 128.80 129.00 129.30 129.50

Bids 127.00 126.80 126.50 126.30 126.00 125.75 125.50

USD/JPY

Offers 116.30 116.50 116.80 117.00 117.20 117.50 117.85 118.00

Bids 115.85 115.50 115.30 115.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.6880 0.6900 0.6930 0.6950 0.6980 0.7000 0.7025-30 0.7050-55

Bids 0.6825-30 0.6800 0.6785 0.6750 0.6730 0.6700

IBM reported Q4 FY 2015 earnings of $4.84 per share (versus $5.81 in Q4 FY 2014), beating analysts' consensus of $4.81.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $22.059 bln (-8.50% y/y), generally inline with consensus estimate of $22.093 bln.

IBM issued downside guidance for FY 2016, projecting EPS of at least $13.50, well below analysts' consensus estimate of $15.06. The company expects its financials will be negatively impacted by a strong US dollar.

IBM fell to $122.07 (-4.71%) in pre-market trading.

Stock indices traded lower on a drop in oil prices. Oil prices fell on concerns over the global oil oversupply and on concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday that there are limits to the central bank's monetary policy. He pointed out that the ECB's quantitative easing was working.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its labour market data on Wednesday. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in the September to November quarter from 5.2% in the August to October quarter. It was the lowest reading since three months to October 2005.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.2%.

The employment rate was 74%. It was the highest reading since 1971.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 1.9% in the September to November quarter, beating expectations for a 1.8% rise, after a 2.0% gain in the August to October quarter.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 2.0% in the September to November quarter, missing expectations for a gain of 2.1%, after a 2.4% increase in the August to October quarter.

The Bank of England monitors closely the wages growth it considers when to start hiking its interest rate.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 5,704.22 -172.58 -2.94 %

DAX 9,376.02 -288.19 -2.98 %

CAC 40 4,135.39 -136.87 -3.20 %

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday that there are limits to the central bank's monetary policy.

"We have to be aware that of course there are limits to monetary policy," he said.

Nowotny pointed out that the ECB's quantitative easing was working.

China's Ministry of Commerce released its foreign direct investment (FDI) data on Wednesday. Foreign direct investment inflows in China fell to 77 billion yuan ($12 billion) in December, down 5.8% from a year earlier.

Non-financial outbound direct investment rose 6.1% year-on-year to $13.89 billion in December.

The Bank of Greece released its current account data on Wednesday. Greece's current account deficit fell to €1.21 billion in November from €1.50 billion in November last year.

The Greek deficit on trade in goods declined to €1.59 billion in November from €1.70 billion in November last year, while the services surplus fell to €375 million from €567.6 billion.

The primary income deficit turned into a surplus of €27.4 million in November from a deficit of €274.4 million in November last year, while the deficit on secondary income declined to €23.4 million from €84.5 million last year.

The capital account surplus decreased to €190.2 million in November from 485.7 million last year.

A survey by the ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group showed on Wednesday that Switzerland's economic sentiment index plunged to -3.0 in January from 16.6 in December. It was the lowest reading since July 2015.

"Half of the analysts surveyed expect economic growth in Switzerland to stay unchanged. Meanwhile, among the other respondents, the share of analysts who anticipate deterioration exceeds the share of those expecting to see a pickup in economic activity by only three percentage points," the ZEW said.

The current conditions fell to -8.5 in January from -2.7 in December.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its labour market data on Wednesday. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in the September to November quarter from 5.2% in the August to October quarter. It was the lowest reading since three months to October 2005.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.2%.

The claimant count slid by 4,300 people in December, beating expectations for a rise by 2,500, after a decrease of 2,200 people in November. November's figure was revised down from a 3,900 increase.

U.K. unemployment in the September to November period dropped by 99,000 to 1.68 million from the previous quarter.

The employment rate was 74%. It was the highest reading since 1971.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 1.9% in the September to November quarter, beating expectations for a 1.8% rise, after a 2.0% gain in the August to October quarter.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 2.0% in the September to November quarter, missing expectations for a gain of 2.1%, after a 2.4% increase in the August to October quarter.

The Bank of England monitors closely the wages growth it considers when to start hiking its interest rate.

Destatis released its producer price index (PPI) for Germany on Wednesday. German PPI producer prices declined 0.5% in December, missing expectations for a 0.4% fall, after a 0.2% drop in November.

On a yearly basis, German PPI dropped 2.3% in December, missing expectations for a 2.2% decrease, after a 2.5% fall in November.

PPI excluding energy sector fell by 0.6% year-on-year in December.

Energy prices were down 6.8% year-on-year in December.

Consumer non-durable goods prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in December, intermediate goods sector prices decreased by 2.2%, while capital goods prices increased 0.7% and durable consumer goods sector prices rose 1.5%.

USD/JPY 117.00 (USD 300m) 118.00 (334m)

EUR/USD 1.0800 ( EUR 1.1bln) 1.0850 (622m) 1.0875 (400m) 1.0900 (786m)

GBP/USD 1.4040 (GBP 356m)

AUD/USD 0.6900 (AUD 208m) 0.7000 (261m)

EUR/JPY 127.10 (230m) 128.80 (210m)

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Tuesday that it expects a higher budget deficit for this year. The office expects a budget deficit of $544 billion, up from a deficit of $439 billion in 2015.

The CBO cut its 2016 revenue forecasts to $3.38 trillion from $3.51 trillion.

"If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years," the office said.

The CBO expects the U.S. economy to grow solidly this year and next.

Statistics New Zealand released its consumer price inflation data on late Wednesday evening. Consumer prices in New Zealand dropped 0.5% in the fourth quarter, missing expectations for a 0.2% fall, after a 0.3% increase in the third quarter.

The decline in consumer price inflation was driven by lower petrol and vegetables prices.

On a yearly basis, consumer price inflation increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter, missing forecasts of the 0.4% rise, after a 0.4% gain in the third quarter. It was the weakest rise since 1999.

Lower petrol prices weighed on the annual inflation.

Westpac Bank released its consumer confidence index for Australia on late Tuesday evening. The index fell 3.5% in January, after a 0.8% fall in December.

The index was mainly driven by a drop in the index tracking views on 'family finances vs a year ago', which plunged by 9.4% in January.

"With limited domestic news during the holiday season consumers appear to have been mainly impacted by the spate of negative news on the international front and the spill over effect on financial markets," Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said.

"The Reserve Bank Board next meets on February 2. Despite markets confidently expecting that the Reserve bank would cut rates by February Westpac has remained firmly of the view that the Bank will remain on hold throughout the second half of 2015 and the whole of 2016. We retain that view despite some concerns from this survey that consumers may slow their spending in response to this current global uncertainty," he added.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1043 (1932)

$1.1019 (3146)

$1.0983 (1850)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0949

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0884 (517)

$1.0846 (1197)

$1.0791 (3809)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 37455 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (3725);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 52878 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (7978);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.41 versus 1.42 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4404 (376)

$1.4307 (290)

$1.4211 (141)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4154

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4091 (733)

$1.3994 (368)

$1.3896 (328)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 22602 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4700 (3151);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 21418 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4550 (2011);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December -2.5% -2.2% -2.3%

The yen rose against the U.S. dollar amid persistent uncertainties on global financial markets, which increase demand for safe-haven assets. Asian stocks fell weighed by oil prices after the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic forecast. The IMF released its updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday projecting the global economy to grow 3.4% in 2016 down from 3.6% expected earlier.

The Australian dollar declined amid domestic consumer confidence data. The Westpac consumer confidence index fell to the lowest level since September 2015 dragging the Australian currency down. The index declined by 3.5% in January after the 0.8% decline in December. Westpac analysts said that consumers were concerned about negative news from abroad. Westpac believes the RBA will keep interest rates at the current level throughout 2016.

EUR/USD: the pair rose to $1.0960 in Asian trade

USD/JPY: the pair fell to Y116.75

GBP/USD: the pair fell to $1.4130

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November 2.4% 2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November 2.0% 1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 5.2% 5.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December 3.9 2.5

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January 16.6

12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 21.3%

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -1.1% 0.5%

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m November -0.6% 0.5%

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts December 1173 1200

13:30 U.S. Building Permits December 1282 1200

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m December 0.0% 0%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y December 0.5% 0.8%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December 2% 2.1%

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 0.234

16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 54.7

West Texas Intermediate futures for February delivery, which expires today, fell to $28.72 (-2.87%), while Brent crude dropped to $28.15 (-2.12%) amid the ongoing global supply glut. The International Energy Agency warned that supplies will be excessive this year. Market participants are bracing for Iran to boost exports.

Investors are waiting for the American Petroleum Institute to release its inventories forecast later today. Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be published on Thursday.

Gold climbed to $1,091.60 (+0.23%) amid growing demand for safe-haven assets as Asian stocks fell and the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic forecast. The IMF released its updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday projecting the global economy to grow 3.4% in 2016 down from 3.6% expected earlier. The fund also says the world economy expanded by 3.1% in 2015, marking the weakest pace since the 2009 recession. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 6.3% this year.

Weak physical demand limited bullion's gains as buyers from one of the major consumers China cut spending amid slowing economy.

U.S. stock markets closed little changed on Tuesday as renewed declines in oil prices slashed off early gains.

Stocks climbed at the beginning of the session on news from China. The country's GDP growth slowed down to 6.8% in the fourth quarter from 6.9% in the third quarter in line with expectations. The growth pace was the slowest in 25 years and it raised expectations for authorities to take further steps to stimulate the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 27.94 points, or 0.2% higher, at 16,016.02. The S&P 500 added 1 point, or less than 0.1%, to 1,881.33 (its energy sector lost 2.2% on Tuesday and over 10.7% since the beginning of 2016). The Nasdaq Composite lost 11.47 points, or 0.3%, to 4,476.95.

This morning in Asia Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 3.54%, or 694.38, to 18,941.43. China Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.45%, or 43.57, to 2,964.17. The Nikkei plunged 3.31%, or 563.53, to 16,484.84.

Asian stock indices fell driven by plunging oil prices. Meanwhile the yen, which serves as a safe-haven asset, gained and weighed on stocks of Japanese exporters.

Japanese Economic and fiscal policy minister Akira Amari said on Tuesday that declines in oil prices and stocks are correlated: lower oil prices generate tension in oil producing countries and make investors sell assets, including stocks of Japanese companies.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil$27.97-1.72%

Gold$1,089.20 +0.01%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 16,882.96 -45.09 -0.27 %

Hang Seng 19,204.22 +398.36 +2.07 %

Shanghai Composite 3,007.74 +93.90 +3.32 %

FTSE 100 5,876.8 +96.88 +1.68 %

CAC 40 4,272.26 +82.69 +1.97 %

Xetra DAX 9,664.21 +142.36 +1.50 %

S&P 500 1,881.33 +1.00 +0.05 %

NASDAQ Composite 4,476.95 -11.47 -0.26 %

Dow Jones 16,016.02 +27.94 +0.17 %

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0907 +0,15%

GBP/USD $1,4156 -0,61%

USD/CHF Chf1,0031 -0,19%

USD/JPY Y117,62 +0,26%

EUR/JPY Y128,28 +0,38%

GBP/JPY Y166,48 -0,35%

AUD/USD $0,6907 +0,64%

NZD/USD $0,6410 -0,62%

USD/CAD C$1,4577 +0,13%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December -0.2% -0.4%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December -2.5% -2.2%

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November 2.4% 2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November 2.0% 1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 5.2% 5.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December 3.9 2.5

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January 16.6

12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 21.3%

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -1.1% 0.5%

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m November -0.6% 0.5%

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts December 1173 1200

13:30 U.S. Building Permits December 1282 1200

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m December 0.0% 0%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y December 0.5% 0.8%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December 2% 2.1%

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 0.234

16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 54.7