Forex-novosti i prognoze od 21-01-2019

• Christine Lagarde Was Speaking at World Economic Forum in Davos

• German Economy Likely Grew in 4Q 2018, But Only Moderately

• Slowdown Is Primarily Due to Disappointing Industrial Production

In 2018 the index of producer prices for industrial products (domestic sales) for Germany rose by 2.6% on an annual average from the preceding year. In 2017 the index had increased by 2.7% compared with 2016, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

In December 2018 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.7% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In November the annual rate of change all over had been 3.3%.

Compared with the preceding month November the overall index decreased by 0.4% in December 2018 (+0.1% in November 2018 and +0.3% in October 2018).

• Macro leverage ratio stabilised in 2018

• The size of China's tax cuts is above expectations

After a slight lift in sales during November, HIA New Home Sales reverted back to the declining trend that had been evident throughout 2018. Private new detached house sales declined by 6.7 per cent in the month which took the volume of sales to the lowest monthly level recorded since late 2012.

It was a weak result across the board in December – New South Wales was the only state where sales did not decline during the month (up by 10.0 per cent). Elsewhere, sales declined: in Victoria, by 11.8 per cent; Queensland was down by 9.2 per cent; South Australia was down by 4.0 per cent, and; Western Australia was down by 9.2 per cent.  

Chinese industrial production climbed 5.7 percent on year in December, topping forecasts for 5.3 percent and up from 5.4 percent in November.

Retail sales were up an annual 8.2 percent - topping expectations for 8.1 percent, which would have been unchanged.

Fixed asset investment gained 5.9 percent on year - unchanged from the November reading but missing forecasts for a gains of 6.0 percent.

China's gross domestic product climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, cited by rttnews.

That was in line with expectations and down from 1.6 percent in the third quarter.

On an annualized basis, GDP expanded 6.4 percent - again matching forecasts and down from 6.5 percent in the three months prior.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1509 (2439)

$1.1484 (474)

$1.1451 (547)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1377

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1341 (3933)

$1.1310 (5090)

$1.1274 (2582)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 70955 contracts (according to data from January, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5486);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3000 (1244)

$1.2968 (549)

$1.2938 (261)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2870

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2812 (554)

$1.2767 (383)

$1.2739 (442)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 23246 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1965);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 26084 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1930);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.