Forex-novosti i prognoze od 27-03-2012

European stocks declined for the first time in three days, erasing an earlier advance, as confidence among U.S. consumers dropped and shares of energy companies retreated.

In the U.S., the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 70.2 in March from a revised reading of 71.6 in February that was higher than initially reported. The median forecast of economists had called for a decrease to 70.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said after stock markets closed yesterday that euro-area governments should continue to take “decisive measures.” The ECB has injected more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) into the banking system since December.

National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slipped 0.6 percent, while France’s CAC 40 Index declined 0.9 percent. Germany’s DAX Index was unchanged.

Total fell 6 percent to 38.56 euros, its biggest decline since December 2008, as the oil company assessed how to stop a leak from its Elgin platform in the U.K. North Sea. The rig supplied more than 1 percent of the U.K.’s gas last year, according to the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

Hochtief AG, Germany’s largest construction company, slid 5.3 percent to 50.27 euros as trading in its Australian subsidiary Leighton was halted before a quarterly review.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG added 2.2 percent to 10.70 euros. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its recommendation on the company to overweight from neutral, meaning that investors should own a larger proportion of the shares than are represented in benchmark indexes.

Kazakhmys Plc, Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, rose 2.1 percent to 944.5 pence after saying that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding special items, rose 3.2 percent to $2.93 billion in 2011. The company also posted a decline in profit for the year.

The dollar rose against the euro and the yen as U.S. economic data indicated a strengthening recovery, undermining the case for more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. currency gained from the lowest level this month against its 17-nation European counterpart as reports showed home-prices declines slowed and consumer confidence this month stayed close to the highest level in a year. The Dollar Index dropped 0.9 percent during the past two days amid speculation the Fed will start a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.8 percent from a year earlier, matching the median forecast of 32 economists, after decreasing 4.1 percent in December, a report from the group showed today in New York. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 70.2 from a revised 71.6 reading in February that was higher than initially reported, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists called for a decrease to 70.

The yen has depreciated 10.8 percent this year, the worst performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar has fallen 2.7 percent, and the euro has gained 0.4 percent.

• • Sees no sign of shift in UK inflation dynamics

• 
  

  • Should growth slow down more than is expected, more policy accommodation could be advisable

  • Even if growth is better than expected, he wants to keep policy accommodative and only wants to remove accom if a clear dual mandate is achievable

  • 2.5% real growth is only enough for a modest dip in unemployment

  • Oil, budget deficit, unemployment are risks remaining, but mkts are improving and downside risks are lessened

U.S. stocks were little changed, following a rally that drove the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since 2008, as confidence among American consumers in March held close to the highest level in a year.

Equities were little changed today after yesterday erasing last week’s loss. The index rose 3.7 percent in March through yesterday, poised for a fourth straight monthly gain, the longest winning streak since 2009. It trades for 14.6 times reported earnings, the highest valuation level since July while still below the average since 1954 of 16.4.

The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 70.2 from a revised 71.6 reading in February that was higher than initially reported. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.8 percent from a year earlier, after decreasing 4.1 percent in December.

Dow 13,243.33     +1.70   +0.01%, Nasdaq      3,130.49       +7.92   +0.25%, S&P 500   1,417.04       +0.53         +0.04%

All 11 stocks in a measure of homebuilders in S&P indexes gained. Lennar rallied 4.7 percent to $27.64. Net income for the three months ended Feb. 29 fell to $15 million, or 8 cents a share, from $27.4 million, or 14 cents, a year earlier. Lennar was expected to earn about 5 cents a share, the average estimate of 20 analysts.

Bank of America (ВАС) dropped 1.7 percent to $9.76 after being downgraded to neutral at Robert W. Baird. The 12-month share- price estimate is $10.

Apollo Group slumped 7.9 percent to $39.81. Co-Chief Executive Officer Gregory Cappelli told investors in a conference call that new enrollments will continue to be “volatile.” Credit Suisse Group AG cut its recommendation for the shares to neutral.

Oil declined after a top Energy Department official said the U.S. may release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Futures erased a gain as Charles McConnell, the acting assistant secretary for fossil energy, said a release is “being considered” at a hearing in Washington. Prices rose earlier on reports showing U.S. economic strength and signals that the Federal Reserve will maintain stimulative monetary policies.

Prices rose earlier as the decline in home prices eased. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.8 percent from a year earlier, matching the median forecast of 32 economists, after decreasing 4.1 percent in December.

The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 70.2 from a revised 71.6 reading in February that was higher than initially reported, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists called for a decrease to 70.

Oil also rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cited “high” levels of long-term unemployment and wages and hours worked that are below pre-crisis peaks in a speech yesterday in Arlington, Virginia.

Crude oil for May delivery reached $107.73 before falling to $106.52 after McConnell spoke on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have gained 8.2 percent this year after increasing 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Brent oil for May settlement fell 29 cents to $125.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices rose to a maximum of two weeks against the euro and the growth expectations of continuing low interest rates in the United States.

After Bernanke's speech yesterday the euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar, and then reached a monthly peak.

Stocks of the world's largest secured gold fund ETF SPDR Gold Trust on Monday, up more than 6 tonnes, after declining by 10 tonnes last week.

Demand for gold in India - the world's largest market of precious metals - low, because the jewelers on strike in protest against the doubling of import duty on gold.

April futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to $ 1696.9 an ounce and then dropped to $ 1679.5 an ounce.

Resistance 3:1500 (psychological level)

Resistance 2:1440 (high of 2008)

Resistance 1:1420 (area of session high)

Current price: 1412,00

Support 1:1410 (earlier resistance, Mar 19 high)

Support 2:1397 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3:1393 (Mar 26 low)

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350. Exotic; $1.3425 KO

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9140

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0485

U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors awaited data forecast to show consumer confidence slipped this month.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  10,255.15 +236.91 +2.36%

Hang Seng 21,046.91 +378.05 +1.83%

Shanghai Composite 2,347.18 -3.42 -0.15%

FTSE  5,895.39 -7.31 -0.12%

CAC  3,487.66 -14.32 -0.41%

DAX 7,110.15 +30.92 +0.44%

Crude oil $107.16 (+0.1%).

Gold $1692.40 (+0,4%).

Data:

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92 0.87

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2 5.9

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance March -2 -2 0

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3470, $1.3450, $1.3415/25, $1.3400, $1.3385

Bids $1.3325/20, $1.3300/280, $1.3235/30

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0620/25, $1.0590/00

Bids $1.0510/00, $1.0485/80, $1.0430/25, $1.0410/00

Resistance 3: Y83.50 (Mar 22 high)

Resistance 2: Y83.20 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Y83.00 (Mar 23-26 highs, Mar 19 low)

Current price: Y82.95

Support 1: Y82.60 (session low)

Support 2: Y81.90 (Mar 13 and 23 lows)

Support 3: Y81.50 (Mar 9 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19 and 22 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Mar 23-26 highs)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (session high, Mar 23 low)

Current price: Chf0.9033

Support 1: Chf0.9010 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.8930 (low of February)

Support 3: Chf0.8830 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (highs of November)

Resistance 2 : $1.6090 (Nov 11-14 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990 (highs of February)

Current price: $1.5965

Support 1 : $1.5940 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5910 (area of Mar 19, 21 and 23 highs)

Support 3 : $1.5840 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.3550 (high of December)

Resistance 2 : $1.3490 (high of February)

Resistance 1 : $1.3390 (session high)  

Current price: $1.3360

Support 1 : $1.3320 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3280 (area of Mar 8, 21 and 23 highs)

Support 3 : $1.3190 (Mar 23 and 26 lows)

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350. Exotic; $1.3425 KO

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9140

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0485

Sold E1.0bln vs target E500mln to E1.0bln

Sold E505mn 2.35% 2019 BTPei;avg yield 3.06% (3.19%),cover 1.91(1.85)

Sold E495mln of 2.10% 2021 BTPei;avg yield 3.45%, cover 2.23

Asian stocks rose, snapping a two- day loss, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said accommodative monetary policy is still needed and a report showed German business confidence unexpectedly gained, improving the earnings outlook for Asian exporters.

Nikkei 225 10,255.15 +236.91 +2.36%

Hang Seng 21,010.96 +342.10 +1.66%

S&P/ASX 200 4,301.33 +38.53 +0.90%

Shanghai Composite 2,347.18 -3.42 -0.15%

Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 83 percent of its sales abroad, added 2.5 percent.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second-biggest lender by market value, added 2 percent after German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled she stands ready to do more to tame Europe’s debt crisis.

Korea Gas Corp., the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas importer, jumped 8.9 percent in Seoul after its Italian partner found reserves in Mozambique.

00:00 G7 G7 Meetings

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92 0.87

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2 5.9

The dollar traded 0.2 percent from its lowest this month against the euro amid speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain easy monetary policy to sustain growth in the world’s biggest economy. The greenback, which has weakened against 15 of 16 major peers this year, remained lower as comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday added to signs the central bank will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3. Bernanke is scheduled to give a lecture today at George Washington University. Yesterday in a speech in Arlington, Virginia, he said that “further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

Demand for the euro was supported amid prospects European finance ministers will agree to bolster the region’s debt-crisis firewall this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that her country may back plans for Europe’s temporary and permanent rescue funds to run in parallel. Finance ministers will meet in Copenhagen this week to discuss the prospect of combining the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and its permanent successor from July, the European Stability Mechanism.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3345-$1.3365.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.5955-$1.5970.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range Y82.80-Y83.05.

Core-European data all comes early on Tuesday, starting at 0600GMT with German import prices and followed at 0610GMT by German GfK

consumer confidence. At 1300GMT, German parliamentary groups are likely to discuss drafts of ESM and the fiscal compact bills once again, in Berlin. Tuesday is a marathon day for UK policy commentary. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will kick off at 1315GMT with a Treasury Select Committee hearing into his 2012/13 Budget. Back in the UK, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gives a testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee at 1430GMT. US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall Sales data. The weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales data us due at 1255GMT. This is followed at 1300GMT by the

Yesterday the dollar fell against its higher- yielding counterparts as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said accommodative monetary policy is still needed to reduce U.S. unemployment. The decline in U.S. unemployment may reflect “a reversal of the unusually large layoffs that occurred during late 2008 and over 2009,” Bernanke said in a speech in Arlington, Virginia. “To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

The euro strengthened against the U.S. currency as Germany said it may back plans to increase the debt-crisis rescue funds before the region’s finance ministers meet March 30. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany may back plans for the temporary and permanent euro-area rescue funds to run in parallel. Ministers are due to discuss plans to combine the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and its permanent successor from July, the European Stability Mechanism in Copenhagen this week.мEuropean sentiment was also buoyed after Munich-based Ifo institute’s German business climate index rose more than expected.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain, fixed above $1.3300.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair rose on a figure, fixed above $1.5900.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair restored after Friday falling.

Core-European data all comes early on Tuesday, starting at 0600GMT with German import prices and followed at 0610GMT by German GfK

consumer confidence. At 1300GMT, German parliamentary groups are likely to discuss drafts of ESM and the fiscal compact bills once again, in Berlin. Tuesday is a marathon day for UK policy commentary. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will kick off at 1315GMT with a Treasury Select Committee hearing into his 2012/13 Budget. Back in the UK, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gives a testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee at 1430GMT. US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Sachs Mall Sales data. The weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales data us due at 1255GMT. This is followed at 1300GMT by the

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Asian stocks fell for a second day, extending last week’s loss, amid concern exporter earnings are deteriorating and after a report Chinese banks have understated the risks of loans to local governments.

Nikkei 225 10,018.24 +6.77 +0.07%

Hang Seng 20,668.86 +0.06 0.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,262.8 -7.59 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.6 +1.06 +0.05%

BYD Co., the Chinese carmaker partly owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., slumped 5 percent in Hong Kong after saying first-quarter profit may fall as much as 95 percent.

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. led mainland lenders lower in Hong Kong.

Leighton Holdings Ltd. rose 2.7 percent after Australia’s largest builder said it won $400 million in new contracts.

Resistance 3: Y84.10/20 (area of Mar 15-21 highs)

Resistance 2: Y83.50 (Mar 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y83.05 (session high)

The current price: Y82.86

Support 1: Y82.60 (low of the American session on Mar 26)

Support 2: Y82.30 (Mar 22 low)

Support 3: Y81.95 (Mar 23 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9180 (Mar 19-22 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9135 (Mar 26 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9065 (Mar 23 low)

The current price: Chf0.9035

Support 1: Chf0.9020 (Mar 26 low)

Support 2: Chf0.8980 (138.2% FIBO Chf0.9335-Chf0.9075)

Support 3: Chf0.8930/35 (area of Feb 24-29 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6040 (138.2% FIBO $1.5600-$1.5922)

Resistance 1 : $1.5975/90 (area of Feb 29 high, Mar 1 high and Mar 26 high)

The current price: $1.5964

Support 1 : $1.5920 (Mar 21 high)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (Mar 16 high)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (Mar 26 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (high of Feb)

Resistance 2 : $1.3415 (high of the American session on Feb 27)

Resistance 1 : $1.3370 (Mar 26 high)

The current price: $1.3350

Support 1 : $1.3285/95 (area of Mar 21-26 highs)

Support 2 : $1.3240 (support line from Mar 22)

Support 3 : $1.3190 (Mar 26 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $107.07 +0.04 +0.04%

Gold $1,693.00 +7.40 +0.44%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,018.24 +6.77 +0.07%

Hang Seng 20,668.86 +0.06 0.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,262.8 -7.59 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.6 +1.06 +0.05%

FTSE 100 5,902.7 +47.81 +0.82%

CAC 40 3,501.98 +25.80 +0.74%

DAX 7,079.23 +83.61 +1.20%

Dow 13,241.63 +160.90 +1.23%

Nasdaq 3,122.57 +54.65 +1.78%

S&P 500 1,416.51 +19.40 +1.39%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3356 +0,66%

GBP/USD $1,5969 +0,64%

USD/CHF Chf0,9027 -0,58%

USD/JPY Y82,87 +0,64%

EUR/JPY Y110,68 +1,28%

GBP/JPY Y132,31 +1,25%

AUD/USD $1,0540 +0,71%

NZD/USD $0,8233 +0,63%

USD/CAD C$0,9909 -0,69%

00:00 G7 G7 Meetings 0

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator February 0.92

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey April 6.0 6.2

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +0.9% +0.9%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance March -2 -2

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y January -4.0% -3.8%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence March 70.8 70.5

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak 0

16:35 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks 0

16:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0

17:20 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

19:45 U.S. FOMC Member Elizabeth Duke Speaks 0