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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 27-09-2012
The euro strengthened against the dollar after Spain announced its fifth austerity package, stating that it will comply with the requirements of the European financial rescue to contain the debt crisis.
The single currency rose after it reached a two-week low against the dollar as European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the budget plan Spain "meets country-specific recommendations and even goes beyond them in some areas. " The dollar weakened against most currencies after the published data, which showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell much more than expected. At the same time, for the first time in six days rose stocks pulling the rise in oil prices.
Finally, we note that an element that is now viewed as a positive, increases the likelihood that Spain will get its financial assistance.
The pound rose for the first time in four days against the dollar after a government report showed that the economy shrank less than previously estimated in the second quarter, adding optimism that the recession is waning.
Sterling rose to a three-week high against the euro after the Spanish protests were held yesterday in Madrid for an end to austerity measures. General strike in Greece yesterday attracted 35,000 protesters in central Athens. It is learned that the UK's gross domestic product fell by 0.4% in the second quarter, not 0.5% reported last month.
Canadian dollar ended a three-day losing streak against its U.S. counterpart, as the appetite for risky assets among investors has grown, after Spain submitted its budget for 2013.
The so-called loonie was also supported by the information that the Chinese government will implement stimulus measures to support their economies.
European (SXXP) shares rose after falling to a minimum value for the most recent two months yesterday on speculation China, which may announce new stimulus measures to support economic growth and after the Spanish government presented its budget for 2013.
Shares of Credit Agricole SA (ACA) rose 3.9% after the bank said that he could quickly sell their Greek unit. Cost Opap SA (OPAP) jumped 3% after the Greek national fund of published calls for expressions of interest in the state share of the company. Shares of Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB), which is the second-largest clothing retailer in Europe fell by 5.8%, after it became known that the profit in the third quarter was below analysts' forecasts.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.4% to 271.83. European stocks were up 8.2% so far this quarter, and sent to the largest quarterly increase since 2009. Index rose by 16% from the lowest level this year, which was recorded on June 4, after the European Central Bank has agreed to purchase an unlimited amount of assets, and the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing.
FTSE 100 5,770.85 +2.76 +0.05% CAC 40 3,432.81 +17.97 +0.53% DAX 7,279.86 +3.35 +0.05%Oil prices rose to an eight-week low on speculation that China will stimulate the economy, and on the eve of the meeting of Spanish politicians to approve the budget for 2013.
Futures rose 2%, while shares rose after China said it would begin conducting incentives. Also, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has promised to cut the deficit to at least 18 billion euros ($ 23.2 billion) next year. Also today, it was reported that U.S. GDP grew less than previously forecast in the second quarter.
Rajoy opposed the protests and expressed their opposition to regional leaders, as it struggles to convince investors it can contain the crisis and did not apply for financial aid. Note also that the debt crisis in Europe, reducing economic growth and demand for energy in the continent for three years. The crisis that started in Greece has spread to Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Cyprus.
The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded by 1.3% from April to June, after rising 2% in the first quarter. Recall that the preliminary assessment was at 1.7.
The price of crude oil also rose after the price of gasoline rose to its highest level in nearly five months on concern that stopping oil platform in the Atlantic basin will further reduce inventories on the East Coast of the U.S..
November futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $91,23 per barrel.
November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now $111,47 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold prices rose, recovering from the previous day's two-week low against the currency, stock markets and other commodities, as well as uncertainty over against Spain.
European stocks recovered some lost ground after yesterday's violent protests in Spain and Greece, which were directed against the austerity measures.
Precious metals prices are on the way to the largest quarterly increase in more than two years, and has grown by almost 10%, after the Federal Reserve announced the third round of quantitative easing earlier this month.
Yield Spanish bonds today fell below 6%, as the uncertainty about the new budget a little alarmed investors.
Reserves of gold in exchange-traded funds, which issue securities backed by physical metal, fell from record highs, which were recorded yesterday by nearly 340,000 ounces.
Demand in India, which is a major consumer of gold, remains weak, as higher interest rates reduce the metal.
October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1764.40 an ounce.
Yield on 10-year Spanish bonds fell by 13.2 pips. to 5.87%
EUR/USD $1.2820, $1.2850, $1.3000, $1.3085, $1.3100
USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6155
EUR/GBP stg0.7955, stg0.8050
AUD/USD $1.0440, $1.0365
U.S. stock futures rose despite reports that showed decrease durable goods orders more than forecast and the economy grew less than previously estimated in the second quarter, while jobless claims decreased last week.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,949.87 +43.17 +0.48%
Hang Seng 20,762.29 +234.56 +1.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,056.32 +52.15 +2.60%
FTSE 5,784.59 +16.50 +0.29%
CAC 3,440.5 +25.66 +0.75%
DAX 7,301.86 +25.35 +0.35%
Crude oil $91.23 +1,39%
Gold $1767.30 0.78%
To create a bank union will take time
Central banks do not have to perform the tasks of fiscal policy
Trust - a key condition for a stable currency
It will be difficult to separate monetary policy and regulation
Ireland, Portugal and Spain have increased their competitiveness
The improvements are not that significant to restore confidence
Euro - a stable currency
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is downgraded to Sell with price target of $14 at Jefferies
Alcoa (AA) is downgraded to Hold from Buy at Dahlman Rose
Data
06:00 Germany Import prices August +0.7% +0.9% +1.3%
06:00 Germany Import prices Y/Y August +1.2% +2.7% 3.2%
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 9 10 9
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August +3.8% +3.3% +2.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter II -11.2 -12.2 -15.4
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5% -0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator September -1.21 -1.20 -1.34
09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence September -15.3 -15.0 -16.1
During the European session, the euro fell against the dollar and the yen on expectations from the Spanish government announcement of the budget for 2013. The Spanish Government today presented a budget for 2013 and a package of structural reforms. These documents and the comments of Spanish leadership will enable the market to better assess the readiness and willingness of Spain to the treatment of sovereign support for the euro zone and mills, respectively, the ECB. Tomorrow will be published in Spain's credit rating rating agency Moody's, and the independent auditors will publish details of the stress test, which will show how much money (compared with a dedicated Spanish credit system support package of 100 billion euros) is required Spanish banks.
As for the regional statistics published disappointing sentiment indicators in the eurozone in September, but German reports on import prices and unemployment were better than expected.
British pound showed an increase against the U.S. dollar after the release of the unit of national reports. GDP for the 2nd quarter and the index of business investment in the same period exceeded expectations, but the balance of the current account deficit widening demonstrated contrary to the expectations of its restriction. In addition, a representative of the Bank of England, Fisher said that the result of the GDP for the third quarter. is strong and inflation is currently higher than projected levels due to high energy prices.
EUR / USD: the pair decreased to $ 1.2844
GBP / USD: the pair rose to $ 1.6218
USD / JPY: the pair is trading in a narrow range with a downward trend
U.S. 12:30 GMT publish the change in orders for durable goods, including excluding transportation equipment in August, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, the final data on GDP growth, GDP price index, the main index of personal consumption expenditures, index of personal consumption expenditures in Q2, 14 : 00 GMT - volume change pending home sales for August. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in the volume of building permits issued in August. At 23:01 GMT the UK will display GfK consumer confidence for September. 23:30 GMT Japan will publish the change in volume level of household spending for August, the consumer price index in Tokyo, including excluding prices for fresh food for September, the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy, consumer price index, consumer price index excluding prices for fresh food, the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices in August , at 23:50 GMT - preliminary data on industrial production for August.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3020, $1.2990/300, $1.2970/75, $1.2930, $1.2910
Bids $1.2835, $1.2800
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6380, $1.6350, $1.6330/40, $1.6310, $1.6295-300
Bids $1.6150, $1.6120, $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0520, $1.0490/00, $1.0470/75, $1.0456, $1.0450, $1.0430
Bids $1.0370, $1.0350, $1.0330
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8045/50, stg0.8015
Bids stg0.7885/80, stg0.7860/50, stg0.7810/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y78.45/50, Y78.40, Y78.20, Y78.00
Bids Y77.50, Y77.40/35, Y77.00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.20, Y101.00, , Y100.25/30
Bids Y99.55/50, Y99.20, Y99.00, Y98.80
European stocks gained, after falling the most in two months yesterday, amid speculation China may announce new stimulus measures to support economic growth and before the Spanish government presents its budget for 2013.
A report showed China’s industrial profits fell for a fifth month, increasing speculation the government will do more to support economic growth.
Rajoy may face renewed criticism today when the Cabinet approves the 2013 budget and presents measures to bolster the shrinking economy. The premier is struggling to persuade European peers, voters and investors that he can tackle the crisis. Spanish bond yields surged yesterday amid rising investor uncertainty over whether he will ask for external aid.
H&M slid 4.8 percent to 234.60 kronor after it reported third-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates. Net income was 3.62 billion kronor ($550 million) in the three months ended Aug. 31, Stockholm-based H&M said today. The average projection of analysts was 4.05 billion kronor.
Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, lost 1.7 percent to 143.95 euros and Renault SA declined 0.9 percent to 36.94 euros. Fiat SpA dropped 1 percent to 4.28 euros.
FTSE 100 5,792.05 +23.96 +0.42%
CAC 40 3,441.45 +26.61 +0.78%
DAX 7,314.56 +38.05 +0.52%
Italy sold E1.0bln CCTeu vs Target E0.5-E1.0bln
- E1.0bln of June 2017 CCTeu; avg yeild 4.56% (5.33%), cover 2.18 (2.42)
Italy sold E2.927bln 10Y BTP vs Target E2-E3.0bln
- E2.927bln of 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP; avg yeild 5.24% (5.82%), cover 1.33 (1.42)
Italy sold E2.718bln 5Y BTP vs Target E2-E3.0bln
- E2.718bln of 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP; avg yeild 4.09% (4.73%), cover 1.38 (1.46)
EUR/USD $1.2820, $1.2850, $1.3000, $1.3085, $1.3100
USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6155
EUR/GBP stg0.7955, stg0.8050
AUD/USD $1.0440, $1.0365
Asian stocks rose as a drop in Chinese industrial profits increased pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to step up measures to support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
Nikkei 225 8,949.87 +43.17 +0.48%
S&P/ASX 200 4,384.2 +22.60 +0.52%
Shanghai Composite 2,052.2 +48.03 +2.40%
China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the country’s biggest developer by market value listed in Hong Kong, rose 1.7 percent.
Renesas Electronics Corp. advanced 1.3 percent after Kyodo reported a government-backed counter offer for the Japanese chipmaker may be double a bid by KKR & Co.
Nitori Holdings Co. fell 8.6 percent in Tokyo after the furniture retailer reported profit that missed analyst estimates.01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence August 19.5 17.0
The dollar declined against most of its major counterparts as Asian stocks extended gains, reducing demand for haven assets. The greenback weakened against the Australian dollar after China’s central bank pumped a record amount of money into the financial system this week, spurring speculation the nation will act to support growth. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 365 billion yuan ($57.9 billion) via reverse-repurchase operations and bill redemptions this week, the most since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2008, compared with 101 billion yuan last week. The monetary authority offered 130 billion yuan of 28-day reverse repo agreements and 50 billion yuan of 14-day contracts today, according to a statement.
Demand for the euro was limited before Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy submits a fifth package of budget cuts as demonstrators gathered in Madrid yesterday. Gains in the euro were limited after Spanish bonds dropped yesterday, sending the yields on 10-year securities above 6 percent for the first time since Sept. 18. Catalan President Artur Mas called early elections for Nov. 25, as Rajoy struggles to gain acceptance for austerity measures and faces criticism from European leaders for delaying a decision on an international bailout for the nation.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair restored to $1.2900.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.6200.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y77.60-75.
A heavy calendar Thursday gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German August ILO employment change, followed at 0700GMT with the release of the Spanish Aug retail sales numbers. At 0755GMT, further German Sep unemployment data is released, followed at 0800GMT with the release of August M3 data from the ECB and the Italian August business survey. Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the EMU Sep economic sentiment and the EMU Sep business climate indicators are released. UK data is expected at 0830GMT, with the release of the UK's revised Q2 GDP data.
Yesterday the euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar after the yield on 10-year bonds in Spain over 6% for the first time since September 18, and the central bank, said the EU's gross domestic product declined in the quarter, sparking concern that the debt crisis in region deteriorates.
The single currency weakened on the seventh day against the yen after the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, said that the foundation of saving Europe should be given a limited role in the bank recapitalization.
The dollar and yen rose against most traded currencies on speculation that central banks around the world will struggle to revive growth, stimulating the demand for safe assets.
The Australian dollar fell against most currencies on concerns that political conflict will impede attempts to resolve the debt crisis in Europe, which has undermined demand for riskier assets. Rates fell $ 1.0366, after earlier fell to its lowest level since September 11.
British pound showed an increase against the U.S. dollar after a study of retail trade in Britain showed a positive result. In September, retailers reported increased sales, predicting positive momentum in the next month, as announced the Confederation of British Industry. According to the study CBI, based on information collected during the first two weeks of this month, 33% of retailers reported an increase in sales compared to the index registered in the previous year, while 27% reported a drop in sales. Thus, the balance amounted to 6, in line with analysts' forecasts. Value is also improved compared to the previous month, when the balance reached 3%.
Asian stocks fell amid concern stimulus measures by central banks from the U.S to Asia and Europe won’t be enough to boost global economic growth and as more than 900 companies in Japan’s Topix Index traded ex- dividend today.
Nikkei 225 8,906.7 -184.84 -2.03%
S&P/ASX 200 4,361.6 -11.26 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,003.52 -25.77 -1.27%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, fell 1.3 percent in Sydney.
BYD Co., the Chinese carmaker partly owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., tumbled 9 percent in Hong Kong as CLSA Asia Pacific Markets cut its price target by 94 percent, citing a worsening outlook for its products.
Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. retreated 3.3 percent as Temasek Holdings Pte, a state-owned investment company, sells S$1.28 billion ($1 billion) of shares in Southeast Asia’s biggest phone company.
European stocks slid the most in two months as Spain prepared to present its budget and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the third round of bond buying may fail to stimulate growth.
Acciona SA (ANA) sank 9.9 percent, leading Spanish builders lower a day before the government presents its budget for next year. Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s largest lender, retreated 4.5 percent. Anglo American Plc (AAL) lost 3.7 percent after saying that it plans to reduce its production of coal.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 1.7 percent to 271.09, its largest drop since July 23.
In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has struggled to persuade people to accept the deepest austerity measures on record. Unions and protest groups, spurred by the Portuguese government’s decision to drop a planned tax increase following demonstrations, have demanded a referendum on Rajoy’s cuts.
Economy Minister Luis de Guindos will present additional measures tomorrow that the European Commission requires as part of efforts to bring down Spain’s borrowing costs. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro will unveil the 2013 budget.
In Greece today, public- and private-sector workers will hold a 24-hour general strike.
National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except for Greece.
FTSE 100 5,776.22 -83.49 -1.42% CAC 40 3,429.24 -84.57 -2.41% DAX 7,288.11 -137.00 -1.85%
Acciona slumped 9.9 percent to 45.10 euros, its biggest tumble since November 2008, while Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, Spain’s biggest construction company, lost 5.4 percent to 16.03 euros. Obrascon Huarte Lain SA (OHL) slid 5.3 percent to 18.49 euros. Ferrovial SA (FER) declined 4.8 percent to 9.72 euros.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, retreated 2.4 percent to 1,908 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the third-largest, dropped 3.4 percent to 2,841 pence. Copper, lead, nickel and tin fell in
Infineon Technologies AG (IFX) slipped 3.4 percent to 4.94 euros, declining for an eighth day. Jefferies Group Inc. cut its recommendation on Europe’s second-biggest semiconductor maker to underperform from hold, meaning investors should sell the shares.
ICAP Plc (IAP) tumbled 3.3 percent to 332.5 pence. The world’s largest broker of transactions between banks predicted that fiscal first-half revenue will drop 14 percent from the previous year because of reduced activity on capital markets.
CGGVeritas (GA) decreased 1.9 percent to 24.93 euros. The company started a 414 million-euro ($532 million) rights offer to help finance its acquisition of Fugro NV’s seismic division. The largest seismic surveyor of oilfields said it will sell the new stock at 17 euros a share.
Technip SA (TEC), Europe’s second-largest oilfield-services provider, retreated 2.4 percent to 86.86
Statoil ASA (STL) dropped 2.8 percent to 149.20 kroner. Norway’s national oil company was cut to sell from buy at Nordea Bank AB.
Major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative territory on concerns about the European situation.
The reason for these concerns is Spain, where in the next few days will be announced on the budget, banking and structural reforms. Today, the Bank of Spain said that in Q3 GDP may be considerably reduced.
The market growing negative sentiment. Indices completely blocked the growth, which was the result of the announcement of the Committee on the Federal Open Market launch of a new round of QE. Decline in the market is not able to stop before the published U.S. data that came out better than expected (the index of housing prices, consumer confidence).
Added a negative current data on housing sales in the primary market in the U.S.. At the end of August sales totaled 373 thousand units per annum against 372 thousand in July. Expected to rise to the level of 381 thousand
In the composition of the index components DOW show predominantly negative dynamics. More than the others fell in the share price American Express Company (AXP, -1,75%). Maximum growth stocks exhibit Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +2.15%).
Among the main economic sectors, all but one, show a negative trend. The plus is only utilities sector (+0.1%). More than the others dropped the financial sector (-1.0%)
At the close:
Dow -41.62 13,415.93 -0.31%
Nasdaq -24.03 3,093.70 -0.77%
S & P -8,26 1,433.59 -0.55%Change % Change Last
Oil $89.95 -0.03 -0.03%
Gold $1,753.70 +0.10 +0.01%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,906.7 -184.84 -2.03%
S&P/ASX 200 4,361.6 -11.26 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,003.52 -25.77 -1.27%
FTSE 100 5,776.22 -83.49 -1.42%
CAC 40 3,429.24 -84.57 -2.41%
DAX 7,288.11 -137.00 -1.85%
Dow -41.62 13,415.93 -0.31%
Nasdaq -24.03 3,093.70 -0.77%
S&P -8,26 1,433.59 -0.55%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2873 -0,23%
GBP/USD $1,6167 -0,17%
USD/CHF Chf0,9392 +0,18%
USD/JPY Y77,72 -0,10%
EUR/JPY Y100,06 -0,33%
GBP/JPY Y125,65 -0,25%
AUD/USD $1,0372 -0,13%
NZD/USD $0,8242 +0,34%
USD/CAD C$0,9847 +0,47%
01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence August 19.5
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index September +1.3% +0.2%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y September -0.7% -0.6%
06:00 Germany Import prices August +0.7% +0.9%
06:00 Germany Import prices Y/Y August +1.2% +2.7%
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 9 10
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.8% 6.8%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August +3.8% +3.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter II -11.2 -12.2
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator September -1.21 -1.20
09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence September -15.3 -15.0
12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders August +4.2% -4.3%
12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation August -0.4% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense August -3.4% +0.7%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 382 378
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II +1.7% +1.7%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter II +1.7% +1.7%
14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) August +2.4% -0.7%
22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August +2.0% +3.0%
23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September -29 -27
23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI September 47.7
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August +1.7% +1.1%
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 4.3% 4.3%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y August -0.4% -0.5%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y August -0.3% -0.3%
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y September -0.7% -0.6%
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y September -0.5% -0.3%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) August -1.0% -0.4%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) August -0.8% -3.4%
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