Novosti i prognoe: tržište kapitala od 10-09-2020

FXStreet notes that after the fall in the equity market caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the market's recovery was much faster and more drastic in the US than in the Eurozone, to the point that there is no longer any sign of the crisis in the US. Analysts at Natixis seek to identify the reasons for the significantly better performance of the US equity market.

“The weight of technology shares in the US is often mentioned. However, the difference in the weight of technology companies between the two markets, given the relative performance of technology shares, cannot explain the performance gap between the US and European equity markets. At most, it explains 30% of it.”

“The outlook for growth and earnings is no better in the United States than in the Eurozone.”

“The difference is explained by demand. If the difference between equity market performance in the US and in the Eurozone since May 2020 is only marginally explained by the weight of technology shares, is not explained by prospects for growth and earnings, is only marginally explained by the gap between interest rates and growth rates, then it can only be explained by share buying behaviour.”

“Savers/investors are less averse to equity risk in the US than in the Eurozone, which also explains the higher weighting of equities in portfolios in the US.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday, as tech shares continued their rebound despite the release of disappointing data on weekly jobless claims, suggesting a choppy economic recovery.

Global Stocks:

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Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners; target $55

FXStreet reports that the S&P 500 has rebounded but analysts at Credit Suisse look for resistance from the 13-day average at 3425/35 to ideally cap further strength for a deeper corrective setback to test support at 3280/60.

“S&P 500 has rebounded but on lighter volume than the sell-off seen over the past few days and with the market still holding below its 13-day exponential average, currently at 3435, our bias remains to view this as a temporary bounce and for a more protracted consolidation phase to emerge within the broader uptrend.” 

“We look for resistance at 3425/35 to try and cap further strength with support seen at 3390 initially, then 3367, below which should see a move back to 3330/26. An eventual move below here can see support next at 3307/03 ahead of our ‘ideal’ objective of what we continue to look to be better support at 3280/59 where we will look for a floor – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from mid-May, 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from March, July high and 63-day average.”