Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 03-05-2012.

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  • The Fed has done much to support the economy

  • Should carefully weigh the possibility of any further stimulation

  • Inflation expectations are restrained

  • Inflation targeting 2% - is not the limit

  • The threat of rising inflation, it is obvious now reserved

  • Moderate economic growth for the absence of strong employment growth

The euro strengthened versus the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers didn’t discuss cutting interest rates at their meeting this week. The 17-nation currency fluctuated against the dollar after Draghi said at a press conference in Barcelona there has been “significant progress” on the fiscal front. The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent, as predicted. While the ECB still expects a gradual economic recovery this year, “downside risks” prevail and the outlook has become “more uncertain,” Draghi said.

The euro fell earlier today as Spanish borrowing costs increased at a note sale. Spain auctioned 765 million euros of notes due in January 2017 at an average yield of 4.75 percent, versus 3.57 percent at a previous sale of five-year securities on Feb. 2. It auctioned three-year debt at an average rate of 4.037 percent, compared with 2.617 percent on March 1.

The yen pared losses against the dollar and euro after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing industries, which account for almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, decreased to 53.5 in April from 56 a month earlier. The Tempe, Arizona-based group’s measure was projected to decline to 55.3. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The Japanese currency fell earlier against most major counterparts after the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined by 27,000 to a one- month low of 365,000 in the week ended April 28.

New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, dropped against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after unemployment exceeded the most pessimistic forecast. The jobless rate climbed to 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a revised 6.4 percent in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said.

business activity 54.6 vs 58.9

prices 53.6 vs 63.9

new orders 53.5 vs 58.8

employment 54.2 vs 56.7

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3080, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3190 

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y80.75, Y81.00

GBP/USD $1.6160, $1.6200, $1.6285

USD/CHF Chf0.9125, Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0275, $1.0350, $1.0400

• global recovery is proceeding
• EMU econ to recover gradually in course of year
• very low int rates,global demand to help emu econ
• further commod price hikes also main downside risk

• global recovery is proceeding
• EMU econ to recover gradually in course of year
• very low int rates,global demand to help emu econ
• further commod price hikes also main downside risk

• stabilization of econ activity at low level
• prevailing uncertainty
• econ activity to recover gradually over 2012
• infl expectations still firmly anchored

• stabilization of econ activity at low level
• prevailing uncertainty
• econ activity to recover gradually over 2012
• infl expectations still firmly anchored

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3230, $1.3200, $1.3170/80
Bids $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080, $1.3070, $1.3050

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6330/35, $1.6320, $1.6300/05, $1.6275/85, $1.6240/50, $1.6230, $1.6200, $1.6180/90
Bids $1.6150, $1.6120/00, $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0445/50, $1.0430/35, $1.0390/00, $1.0380, $1.0350/60, $1.0335/40, $1.0320/25
Bids $1.0260, $1.0225, $1.0200

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8250, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8200, stg0.8180/85, stg0.8150/65
Bids stg0.8110/00, stg0.8070/65, stg0.8050

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.85/90, Y80.70/75, Y80.60/65, Y80.45
Bids Y80.10/00, Y79.80, Y79.60, Y79.50

EUR/JPY
Offers Y106.80/00, Y106.60/70, Y106.50/55, Y106.35/40, Y106.20, Y105.95/00, Y105.85/90
Bids Y105.20/00, Y104.65/60, Y104.50

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.00 (resistance line from Mar 21)
Resistance 1: Y80.60 (May 2 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y80.31
Support 1: Y80.10 (session low, May 2 low)
Support 2: Y79.60/50 (May 1 low, high of November’2011)
Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Apr 18 high, resistance line from Mar 15)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (area of session high and May 2 high)
Current price: Chf0.9144
Support 1: Chf0.9120 (area session low and low of american session on May 2)
Support 2: Chf0.9100 (area of Apr 30 and May 1 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (area of session low and Apr 26-30 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.6280 (resistance line from April’2011)

Resistance 2 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6200 (session high, the top border of down channel from Apr 30)

Current price: $1.6184

Support 1 : $1.6160/50 (area of session low and Apr 26-27 and May 2 lows)

Support 2 : $1.6120 (the bottom border of down channel from Apr 30)

Support 3 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3200 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1 : $1.3160/70 (area of session high and high of american session on May 2)
Current price: $1.3134
Support 1 : $1.3120/00 (area of session low, May 2 low, Apr 23 low and МА (100) for D1))
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Apr 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.3000 (low of April and March)

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3080, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3190 

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y80.75, Y81.00

GBP/USD $1.6160, $1.6200, $1.6285

USD/CHF Chf0.9125, Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0275, $1.0350, $1.0400

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI April 58.0 56.1

The euro remained lower following a three-day decline on bets that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will hint at further stimulus measures to counter the region’s debt crisis after today’s policy meeting. The ECB will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low 1 percent today, according to all economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Draghi said on April 25 that inflation will slow next year and risks to the economic outlook remain on the downside. That’s a contrast to the “upside risks” to inflation he warned of three weeks ago.

The 17-nation currency was 0.2 percent from a two-week low versus the yen before Spain auctions debt. Spain will auction three- and five-year notes today amid speculation that the euro area’s fourth-largest economy will follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in seeking a bailout. The three-year rate was 4.08 percent yesterday, down from a decade high of 6.37 percent in November. Spain’s borrowing costs have been contained after the ECB conducted a three-year loan program, known as the longer-term refinancing operations.

The dollar strengthened against most of its 16 major peers on demand for an investment haven.  U.S. private employment increased by 119,000 workers last month, the smallest gain in seven months, ADP Employer Services said yesterday. The Labor Department will report May 4 that U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 160,000 jobs in April, up from 120,000 the previous month, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The unemployment rate will probably remain unchanged at 8.2 percent.

New Zealand’s currency touched the weakest in three months after data showed the nation’s unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 2010. New Zealand’s dollar, known as the kiwi, dropped to 80.41 U.S. cents, the least since January, before trading at 80.61, 0.6 percent below yesterday’s close. The nation’s jobless rate rose to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. That was higher than the most-pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists and up from 6.4 percent in the last three months of 2011.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3135-$1.3155.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.6175-$1.6200.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose.

UK data includes the 0600GMT release of the latest Nationwide House Price index and later, the 0830GMT release of the Markit/CIPS services PMI data along with Official Reserves data. US data includes chain store sales but starts with the 1130GMT release of the latest Challenger Layoffs data. US data at 1230GMT sees the weekly initial jobless benefit claims and also non-farm productivity data. At 1400GMT, the ISM non-manufacturing index is due, followed at 1430GMT by EIA natural gas storage data. At 1500GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta and John Williams of San Francisco are among the presenters at the University of California at Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project 2012.

Yesterday the euro weakened for a third day against the dollar, the longest losing streak in almost a month, after data showed European manufacturing shrank and unemployment rose in Germany, adding to concern the debt crisis will worsen. The euro dropped against most of its 16 major peers as London-based Markit Economics said its purchasing-manager index of euro-region manufacturing shrank for a ninth month, falling to a 34-month low of 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March. A reading below 50 shows contraction. The number of people out of work in Germany increased a seasonally adjusted 19,000 last month to 2.87 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a decline of 10,000. Yields on Germany’s two-, five-, 10-, and 30-year bonds dropped to record lows.

The 17-nation currency fell to a two-week low versus the yen on bets European Central Bank President Mario Draghi may hint at further easing at a meeting.

The dollar pared gains against the yen after data showed U.S. firms added fewer workers in April than forecast, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve may keep accommodative monetary policy in place longer. The Dollar Index briefly pared gains after a report showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than forecast. Private employers’ payrolls increased by 119,000 workers, after a revised 201,000 gain in March, according to Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services. The median forecast of economists was for a 170,000 advance. The Labor Department will report May 4 that U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 160,000 jobs in April, up from 120,000 the previous month survey showed.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair decreased below $1.3200.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.6200.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds above Y80.00.

UK data includes the 0600GMT release of the latest Nationwide House Price index and later, the 0830GMT release of the Markit/CIPS services PMI data along with Official Reserves data. US data includes chain store sales but starts with the 1130GMT release of the latest Challenger Layoffs data. US data at 1230GMT sees the weekly initial jobless benefit claims and also non-farm productivity data. At 1400GMT, the ISM non-manufacturing index is due, followed at 1430GMT by EIA natural gas storage data. At 1500GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta and John Williams of San Francisco are among the presenters at the University of California at Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project 2012.

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (Apr 20 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.60 (May 2 high)

The current price: Y80.18

Support 1: Y80.05 (May 2 low)

Support 2: Y79.65 (May 1 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9195 (Apr 19 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9155 (May 2 high)

The current price: Chf0.9140

Support 1: Chf0.9125 (low of the American session on May 2)

Support 2: Chf0.9100 (May 1 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (May 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6300 (Apr 30 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6245 (May 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6205 (high of the American session on May 2)

The current price: $1.6184

Support 1 : $1.6150/60 (Apr 27 low, May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3205 (May 1 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3170 (high of the American session on May 2)

The current price: $1.3144

Support 1 : $1.3120 (May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.3105 (Apr 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.3070 (Apr 19 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3153 -0,64%

GBP/USD $1,6196 -0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,9133 +0,64%

USD/JPY Y80,11 +0,02%

EUR/JPY Y105,38 -0,60%

GBP/JPY Y129,75 -0,10%

AUD/USD $1,0323 -0,08%

NZD/USD $0,8085 -0,79%

USD/CAD C$0,9867 +0,13%

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI April 58.0

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index April -1.0% +0.6%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y April -0.9% -0.3%

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m March +0.3% +0.7%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y March -1.9%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +2.2% +1.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April -0.6% _0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services April 55.3 54.6

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM March +0.6% +0.6%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) March +3.6% +3.4%

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 1.00% 1.00%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 388 382

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing April 56.0 55.5

15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks -