Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-05-2012.

The yen gained versus all of its major counterparts as investors sought safety after U.S. payrolls increased less than forecast in April and before elections in Europe that may result in leadership changes. France and Greece hold elections this weekend, with French voters casting ballots in the final round of the country’s presidential race and Greeks set to decide on a new parliament.

The euro fell for a fifth day versus the dollar, the longest stretch since September, as France and Greece prepared for elections May 6, spurring bets their commitment to austerity may flag. While the U.S. jobless rate fell to a three-year low, employers added the fewest jobs in six months, fueling concern the U.S. economic recovery is faltering and damping demand for assets linked to growth, such as Australia’s dollar. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, after a revised increase of 154,000 in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate was for a 160,000 rise. The unemployment rate fell 8.1 percent, from 8.2 percent. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in services and manufacturing dropped to 46.7 from 49.1 in March, London-based Markit Economics said. That’s below an initial estimate of 47.4 on April 23. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

• • The rate of unemployment is too high

  • In 2013-14 years inflation will be slightly below 2%

  • Economic growth in 2012/13 years. expected at 2.5% and 2.75% respectively

  • The country's economy faces significant risks, including those from the eurozone and the U.S. budget

  • The state of the banking system reflects a mixed economic picture in the U.S.

With US data out of the way, chatter turns to French and Greek elections, or a long holiday weekend if you are in the UK, all three damping enthusiasm.

Reported bids scattered down to $1.0150 ahead of the next option barrier with stops set on a break.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y79.70, Y80.00, Y80.35, Y80.50, Y80.70, Y81.00 

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6100 

EUR/JPY Y105.00

AUD/USD  $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0350

Data:

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +2.2% +1.2% -2.4%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March +0.8% +1.2% +4.2%

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) April 50.1 46.4 45.2

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) April 52.1 52.6 52.2

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) April 49.2 47.9 46.9

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.1% +0.1% +0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) March -2.1% -1.1% -0.2%

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3200, $1.3180
Bids $1.3120, $1.3100/095, $1.3080, $1.3070, $1.3050, $1.3020

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6320, $1.6300/05, $1.6275/85, $1.6240/50, $1.6220, $1.6200/05
Bids $1.6150, $1.6120/00, $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0380, $1.0350/60, $1.0335/40, $1.0320/25, $1.0295/00, $1.0265/70
Bids $1.0235, $1.0225, $1.0200, $1.0160

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8180/85, stg0.8160/65, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8070/65, stg0.8050

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.75/80, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.25/30
Bids Y80.10/00, Y79.80, Y79.70, Y79.60

EUR/JPY
Offers Y106.35/40, Y106.20, Y105.95/00, Y105.75/80, Y105.45/50
Bids Y105.20/00, Y104.65/60, Y104.50

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.90 (resistance line from Mar 21)
Resistance 1: Y80.60/50 (area of May 2-3 highs, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y80.21
Support 1: Y80.10 (May 2-3 low)
Support 2: Y79.60/50 (May 1 low, high of November’2011)
Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Apr 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9190 (resistance line from Mar 15)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 and May 3 high)
Current price: Chf0.9147
Support 1: Chf0.9100 (area of Apr 30 and May 1 highs,  МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9050 (May 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (area of Apr 26-30 and May 1 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.3200 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3160 (session high)
Current price: $1.3128
Support 1 : $1.3100 (area of May 2-3 and Apr 23 lows, МА (100) for D1))
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Apr 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.3000 (low of April and March)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3300 

USD/JPY Y79.70, Y80.00, Y80.35, Y80.50, Y80.70, Y81.00

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6100

EUR/JPY Y105.00

AUD/USD  $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0350

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter II

The euro was set for the biggest weekly decline in a month amid concern leadership changes at elections in France and Greece this weekend could derail the region’s austerity efforts. France and Greece are both scheduled to hold elections on May 6, with French voters casting ballots in the final round of the country’s presidential race and Greeks set to decide on a new parliament.  The 17-nation currency was 0.3 percent from an almost two- year low versus the British pound before a private report that may confirm the euro region’s output of services and manufacturing shrank for a third month. A euro-area composite index for services and manufacturing industries was at 47.4 in April, below the 50 level that indicates contraction, according to economist estimates before London-based Markit Economics releases its final reading of the gauge today.

The Dollar Index was poised for a weekly gain before U.S. data forecast to show employment increased last month in the world’s biggest economy. U.S. employers probably added 160,000 jobs last month after a 120,000 increase in March, according to the median estimate of economists before the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.3140-$1.3160.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.6180-$1.6195.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y80.15-Y80.25.

This morning it is the turn of the European services PMIs to dominate the European data calendar. Italy at 0743GMT, then the final figures from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. Finally for Europe, at 1145GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech at Ruhr University, in Bochum. UK data is mainly second-tier on Friday, starting at 0600GMT with the BDO High Street Sales Tracker. The main afternoon event is at 1230GMT when non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 165,000 in April after the relatively modest 120,000 rise in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.2%. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is forecast hold steady at 34.5 hours. In Canada, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is due at 1400GMT. The, at 1425GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the California Bankers Association 121st Annual Convention. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of Treasury STRIPS data.

Yesterday the euro strengthened versus the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers didn’t discuss cutting interest rates at their meeting this week. The 17-nation currency fluctuated against the dollar after Draghi said at a press conference in Barcelona there has been “significant progress” on the fiscal front. The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent, as predicted. While the ECB still expects a gradual economic recovery this year, “downside risks” prevail and the outlook has become “more uncertain,” Draghi said.

The euro fell earlier as Spanish borrowing costs increased at a note sale. Spain auctioned 765 million euros of notes due in January 2017 at an average yield of 4.75 percent, versus 3.57 percent at a previous sale of five-year securities on Feb. 2. It auctioned three-year debt at an average rate of 4.037 percent, compared with 2.617 percent on March 1.

The yen pared losses against the dollar and euro after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing industries, which account for almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, decreased to 53.5 in April from 56 a month earlier. The Tempe, Arizona-based group’s measure was projected to decline to 55.3. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The Japanese currency fell earlier against most major counterparts after the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined by 27,000 to a one- month low of 365,000 in the week ended April 28.

New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, dropped against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after unemployment exceeded the most pessimistic forecast. The jobless rate climbed to 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a revised 6.4 percent in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair holds nearby $1.3150.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair holds nearby $1.6180.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded with increase.

This morning it is the turn of the European services PMIs to dominate the European data calendar. Italy at 0743GMT, then the final figures from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. Finally for Europe, at 1145GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech at Ruhr University, in Bochum. UK data is mainly second-tier on Friday, starting at 0600GMT with the BDO High Street Sales Tracker. The main afternoon event is at 1230GMT when non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 165,000 in April after the relatively modest 120,000 rise in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.2%. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is forecast hold steady at 34.5 hours. In Canada, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is due at 1400GMT. The, at 1425GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the California Bankers Association 121st Annual Convention. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of Treasury STRIPS data.

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (Apr 20 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.55/60 (area of May 2-3 highs)

The current price: Y80.16

Support 1: Y80.05 (May 2 low)

Support 2: Y79.65 (May 1 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9195 (Apr 19 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9170 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9155 (May 2 high)

The current price: Chf0.9133

Support 1: Chf0.9115 (May 3 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9100 (May 1 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (May 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6300 (Apr 30 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6245 (May 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

The current price: $1.6186

Support 1 : $1.6150/60 (Apr 27 high, May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3205 (May 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

The current price: $1.3155

Support 1 : $1.3120 (May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.3095 (May 3 low)

Support 3 : $1.3070 (Apr 19 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3152 -0,01%

GBP/USD $1,6178 -0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9134 +0,01%

USD/JPY Y80,19 +0,10%

EUR/JPY Y105,46 +0,08%

GBP/JPY Y129,72 -0,02%

AUD/USD $1,0264 -0,57%

NZD/USD $0,8002 -1,04%

USD/CAD C$0,9884 +0,17%

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter II

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +2.2% +1.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April -0.6% _0.8%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March +0.8% +1.2%

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) April 50.1 46.4

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) April 52.1 52.6

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) April 49.2 47.9

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) March -2.1% -1.1%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls April 120 160

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate April 8.2% 8.2%

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings April +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek April 34.5 34.5

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April 63.5 64.2

15:25 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks