Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 09-05-2012.

The euro weakened for an eighth day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union. The 17-nation currency extended its run of losses to the longest since September 2008 as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent. Euro area leaders from the European Central Bank’s Joerg Asmussen to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have begun to raise doubts that Greece can stay in the monetary union. Growth in German exports slowed to 0.9 percent in March from 1.5 percent in February, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today.

The pound fell for a second day against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6126 and rose 0.3 percent to 80.26 pence per euro before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decides tomorrow whether to add more stimulus to its existing 325 billion pounds ($485 billion) of bond purchases.

The yen strengthened against all of it 16 major counterparts, and the dollar advanced versus all but the yen, amid speculation the global economy is stalling, boosting demand for safer assets.

Canada’s dollar dropped to a three-month low as oil declined for a sixth day.

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  • It will take several years to reach full employment again

  • The level of full employment is likely to be 6%

  • U.S. GDP growth is likely to be around 2.5%

  • Inflation is likely to remain near the target level of 2% of the Federal Reserve

• Do not see the need for further easing of monetary policy, while economic shocks may push the Fed to this

• It is possible, minimize stimulation occurs in 6-9 months

• The state banks improves

• Low rates are aimed at stimulating consumer spending

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3065, $1.3075, $1.3095, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y79.65, Y79.75-80, Y80.25, Y80.50 

AUD/USD $1.0200

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6125, $1.6295-1.6300

USD/CHF Chf0.9250

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080/85, $1.3040/45, $1.3000/20

Bids $1.2925/20, $1.2900, $1.2860/50

Data:

06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 13.6 13.4 13.7

06:00 Germany Current Account March 11.1 18.0 19.8

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -6.4 -5.8 -5.7

The euro set new 3 month low against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union.

The euro fell as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent.

Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in the Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias. Syriza is opposed to Greece’s European Union-led financial bailout.

Antonis Samaras of New Democracy and Evangelos Venizelos, of Pasok, rejected the ultimatum from Tsipras to send a letter to the European Union revoking their written pledges to implement austerity measures by the time he meets them today. Another election may be held in June if politicians fail to form a governing coalition.

EUR/USD: during the most part of the european session the pair was limited $1,2960-$ 1,3000. Later the pair decreased below $1,2950.

GBP/USD: the pair fell below $1,6100.

USD/JPY: the pair overcome support in Y79,60 area then decreased in Y79,40 area.

US data start at 1400GMT with wholesale inventories data and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data. At 1600GMT, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Bank's conference on "Reinventing Older Communities." The US also sells new 10-year notes on Wednesday.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs, resistance line from Mar 23)
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (May 8 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y79.62
Support 1: Y79.60/50 (May 1 and 7 lows, high of November’2011)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (high of March)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)
Current price: Chf0.9257
Support 1: Chf0.9240 (area of session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high, May 7-8 lows and resistance line from Mar 15 broken earlier)
Support 3: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 lows, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of May 7-8 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160 (session high)

Current price: $1.6117

Support 1 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Support 2 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3120/30 (area of MA(100) for D1 and МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, May 7-8 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.3000 (session high)
Current price: $1.2976
Support 1 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)
Support 2 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.2870 (Jan 23 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3065, $1.3075, $1.3095, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y79.65, Y79.75-80, Y80.25, Y80.50 

AUD/USD $1.0200

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6125, $1.6295-1.6300

USD/CHF Chf0.9250

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 96.3 97.0 96.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 95.0 96.2 96.5

The euro fell, extending its longest losing streak in 3 1/2 years, as Greek politicians struggle to form a new government, raising concern that the nation may leave the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro traded 0.2 percent from an almost three- month low versus the yen before Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza party is due to meet today with leaders of New Democracy and Pasok, the two parties that supported austerity measures. Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias.

Australia’s dollar fell after Prime Minister Julia Gillard said returning a budget surplus gives the central bank “maximum room” to move on interest rates.

The greenback and yen gained against most of their major peers today as concern that a recovery in the global economy is losing momentum bolstered demand for safer assets. Exports from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, probably decreased 0.5 percent in March from the previous month, when they rose 1.5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the statistics office releases the figures today. U.S. initial jobless claims may have risen by 4,000 to 369,000 in the week ended May 5 from the prior period, another poll showed ahead of tomorrow’s data.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to yesterday's low.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with Germany trade data, while France foreign trade data is due at 0645GMT. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data. At 1115GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa give a joint press conference after their meeting in Berlin. US data continues at 1400GMT with wholesale inventories data and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data. At 1600GMT, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Bank's conference on "Reinventing Older Communities." The US also sells new 10-year notes on Wednesday.

Yesterday the euro weakened for a seventh day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government after elections on the weekend raised the prospect of the country withdrawing from the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro extended its longest run of declines against the greenback since September 2008 as German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected government stimulus as the way to spur economic growth, setting up a clash with French president-elect Francois Hollande. Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias. Tsipras said he wouldn’t agree to join forces with New Democracy and Pasok, the two Greek parties that have supported austerity measures in return for international funds. He called on the leaders of both parties to withdraw their pledges to impose the terms in writing by when he is to meet with both of them to discuss forming a government.

The pound dropped against the dollar as a report showed U.K. house prices fell in April.  The pound declined from within two U.S. cents of an eight- month high against the dollar after an industry report showed a gauge of house prices declined. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its index dropped to minus 19 from minus 11 in March. A reading below zero means more surveyors saw price declines than increases.

Resistance 3: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.10 (May 8 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.95 (session high)

The current price: Y79.77

Support 1: Y79.65 (May 1-7 low)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9335 (Mar 15 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)

The current price: Chf0.9256

Support 1: Chf0.9235 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9195 (May 7-8 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6170 (high of the American session on May 8)

The current price: $1.6138

Support 1 : $1.6125 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6115 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (May 4 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3005 (session high)

The current price: $1.2972

Support 1 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)

Support 2 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2810 (Jan low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2998 -0,46%

GBP/USD $1,6151 -0,26%

USD/CHF Chf0,9237 +0,41%

USD/JPY Y79,88 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y103,87 -0,42%

GBP/JPY Y129,01 -0,27%

AUD/USD $1,0109 -0,93%

NZD/USD $0,7875 -0,99%

USD/CAD C$0,9989 +0,61%

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 96.3 97.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 95.0 96.2

06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 13.6 13.4

06:00 Germany Current Account March 11.1 18.0

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -6.4 -5.8

13:45 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories March +0.9% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - +2.8

14:45 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks -

23:50 Japan Current Account Total, bln March 854.1 650.0