Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 10-05-2012.

The euro rose from a three-month low as Europe’s bailout fund confirmed that aid to Greece had been received and officials said progress was made forming a government, easing concern the nation will leave the monetary union. Greece’s socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos said he saw the first “good omen” in four days of attempts to form a coalition government and avert a new election. Greece “can continue to function with the disbursement,” commission spokesman Olivier Bailly told reporters in Brussels after yesterday’s European Financial Stability Facility decision to disburse immediately only 4.2 billion euros ($5.4 billion) of a 5.2 billion-euro loan tranche. The remaining 1 billion euros will be “disbursed in due time to cover future needs.”

The British pound rose against the dollar after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held its quantitative easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3085, $1.3100, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y79.05, Y80.00, Y80.25 

AUD/USD $1.0195, $1.0200, $1.0275

GBP/USD $1.6060

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3040/45, $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980

Bids $1.2900, $1.2860/50 

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6240/50, $1.6220, $1.6200/05

Bids $1.6060/50, $1.6010/00, $1.5980

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs, resistance line from Mar 23)
Resistance 2: Y80.10 (May 8 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.80 (session high)
Current price: Y79.66
Support 1: Y79.40 (May 9 low)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (high of March)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9300 (May 9 high)
Current price: Chf0.9281
Support 1: Chf0.9260 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high, May 7-8 lows and resistance line from Mar 15)
Support 3: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of May 7-8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160 (session high, May 9 high)

Current price: $1.6110

Support 1 : $1.6090 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, May 9 low)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3120/30 (area of МА (100) for D1, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, May 7-8 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2970 (session high)
Current price: $1.2936
Support 1 : $1.2910 (May 9 low)
Support 2 : $1.2870 (Jan 23 low)
Support 3 : $1.2620 (low of January)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3085, $1.3100, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y79.05, Y80.00, Y80.25 

AUD/USD $1.0195, $1.0200, $1.0275

GBP/USD $1.6060

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed April 44.0 -4.2 15.5

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate April 5.2% 5.3% 4.9%

03:00 China Trade Balance, bln April 5.4 9.8 18.4

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current April 51.8 52.5 50.9

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook April 49.7 49.5 50.9

The yen and dollar fell against most of their major peers as Asian stocks reversed earlier losses, reducing demand for the haven currencies. The yen erased gains after Bank of Japan (8301) board member Sayuri Shirai said the central bank must keep monitoring currency movements. The yen weakened against the euro as the currency’s 14-day relative strength index against the euro rose to 72 yesterday, above the 70 level some traders see as signaling an asset may reverse direction.

Australia’s dollar rallied after the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell. Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in April from 5.2 percent a month earlier, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. That matches the lowest level since December 2008 and contrasts with a rise to 5.3 percent predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Payrolls increased by 15,500, compared with the median estimate for a reduction of 5,000 in another poll. The Australian currency pared gains after China reported slower growth in exports and imports. Overseas shipments rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said on its website today. That compares with the 8.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 33 analysts. Import growth of 0.3 percent trailed forecasts for a 10.9 percent gain. The trade surplus was $18.4 billion, almost double estimates of $9.9 billion.

The euro fell to the lowest in more than three months yesterday as Greek leaders struggled to reach an agreement on implementing austerity measures. Evangelos Venizelos, leader of Greece’s Pasok party and the former finance minister, said he’ll try to form a government when he receives a three-day mandate from President Karolos Papoulias today. Pasok yesterday rejected terms for a government set by Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s anti- bailout Syriza party which then gave up its bid to build a coalition. Euro-area leaders from the European Central Bank’s Joerg Asmussen to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have begun to raise doubts that Greece can stay in the monetary union.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.2925-55.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.6120-50.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y79.60-75.

European data for Thursday starts at 0645GMT with France industrial output and government deficit data. ECB speakers start at  0700GMT when ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to  participate in the Austrian National Bank's conference entitled "European Monetary Union: Lessons from the Debt Crisis", in Vienna. Also at 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in parliament on the upcoming G8 meeting, in Berlin. At 0800GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is due to give the keynote address at the Austrian National Bank's conference, while at the same time, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin for May. UK data at 0830GMT includes BOE Quoted Rates and Vehicle Licensing  Statistics but focus will be on the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims as well as trade and import/export price data. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise 3,000 to 370,000 in the May 5 week after falling 27,000 in the previous week. Also in the US today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak via satellite at the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, sponsored by the Chicago Fed, followed by Martin Gruenberg, acting chairman of the FDIC. At 1400GMT, Minneapolis Fed Pres Naryana Kocherlakota speaks t the Business Law Institute in Minneapolis on "Toward a More Transparent FOMC.' US data continues at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA natural gas storage data.

Yesterday the euro weakened for an eighth day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union. The 17-nation currency extended its run of losses to the longest since September 2008 as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent. Euro area leaders from the European Central Bank’s Joerg Asmussen to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have begun to raise doubts that Greece can stay in the monetary union. Growth in German exports slowed to 0.9 percent in March from 1.5 percent in February, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said.

The pound fell for a second day against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6126 and rose 0.3 percent to 80.26 pence per euro before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decides whether to add more stimulus to its existing 325 billion pounds ($485 billion) of bond purchases.

The yen strengthened against all of it 16 major counterparts, and the dollar advanced versus all but the yen, amid speculation the global economy is stalling, boosting demand for safer assets.

Canada’s dollar dropped to a three-month low as oil declined for a sixth day.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.2950.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased below $1.6100, however restored later.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y79.50.

European data for Thursday starts at 0645GMT with France industrial output and government deficit data. ECB speakers start at  0700GMT when ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to  participate in the Austrian National Bank's conference entitled "European Monetary Union: Lessons from the Debt Crisis", in Vienna. Also at 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in parliament on the upcoming G8 meeting, in Berlin. At 0800GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is due to give the keynote address at the Austrian National Bank's conference, while at the same time, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin for May. UK data at 0830GMT includes BOE Quoted Rates and Vehicle Licensing  Statistics but focus will be on the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims as well as trade and import/export price data. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise 3,000 to 370,000 in the May 5 week after falling 27,000 in the previous week. Also in the US today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak via satellite at the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, sponsored by the Chicago Fed, followed by Martin Gruenberg, acting chairman of the FDIC. At 1400GMT, Minneapolis Fed Pres Naryana Kocherlakota speaks t the Business Law Institute in Minneapolis on "Toward a More Transparent FOMC.' US data continues at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA natural gas storage data.

• Won't be one big bang solution for debt crisis

• Solving EMU debt crisis will be long, painful path

• Won't be one big bang solution for debt crisis

• Solving EMU debt crisis will be long, painful path

Resistance 3: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.10 (May 8 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.75 (session high)

The current price: Y79.64

Support 1: Y79.35/40 (Feb 20 low, May 9 low)

Support 2: Y78.70 (Feb 15 high)

Support 3: Y78.15 (Feb 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9335 (Mar 15 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

The current price: Chf0.9277

Support 1: Chf0.9240/50 (May 9 low, May 8 high)

Support 2: Chf0.9195 (May 7-8 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6170 (high of the American session on May 8)

The current price: $1.6132

Support 1 : $1.6120 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6065 (May 9 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (May 4 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3005 (May 9 high)

The current price: $1.2946

Support 1 : $1.2910 (May 9 low)

Support 2 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2810 (low of Jan)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2934 -0,49%

GBP/USD $1,6129 -0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,9284 +0,51%

USD/JPY Y79,62 -0,33%

EUR/JPY Y02,99 -0,85%

GBP/JPY Y128,43 -0,45%

AUD/USD $1,0041 -0,68%

NZD/USD $0,7838 -0,47%

USD/CAD C$1,0022 +0,33%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed April 44.0 -4.2

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate April 5.2% 5.3%

03:00 China Trade Balance, bln April 5.4 9.8

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current April 51.8 52.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook April 49.7 49.5

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m March +0.3% +0.7%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y March -1.9%

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report May

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) March +0.4% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) March -2.3% -2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) March -1.0% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) March -1.4% -1.3%

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions March 0.3 0.8

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index March +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln March -46.0 -49.6

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 365 372

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index April +1.3% -0.1%

13:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -

14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate April +0.1%

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

18:00 U.S. Federal budget April -198.2 30.5

20:00 U.S. Treasury Currency Report May