Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 03-12-2012.

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03.12.2012

19:22

American focus: the pound has appreciated significantly

The euro rose to six-week high against the dollar, which was caused by information that Greece may hold an auction to buy back government securities in the amount of 10 billion euros ($ 13 billion). In connection with this concern that the debt crisis in the region is deteriorating slightly decreased.

The dollar index (DXY) dropped to one-month low amid tightening position among U.S. lawmakers about how to avoid the so-called "financial failure."

Also today, Credit Suisse Group AG said some customers that will introduce negative interest rates on cash balances in Swiss francs. Against this background rate EUR / CHF showed the biggest increase since September, and reached CHF1.2086.

At the same time, analysts say that the euro is likely to survive, because, despite the fact that Europe has a serious problem, more and more people are coming to the realization that these problems will continue to exist, though for a long time, but they are not fatal.

We also note that today the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds fell to 5.2%, the lowest level since March, while the yield of similar bonds in Italy dropped to 4.4%, which is the minimum value for the year.

Pound increased since released a report showed that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector reached Britain climbed to 49.1 from 47.3, exceeding forecasts at 48.1.

Also this trend was due to the fact that market participants are waiting for the meeting of the Monetary Policy of the Bank of England, to be held this week. This interest is caused by the recent comments of the Bank of Mervyn King suggests that, in the coming months, the volume of purchases of government bonds can be increased.

15:30

German Finance Minister Schaeuble: Germany on track with rebalancing

Want inclusive approach to banking union

15:16

Fed's Dudley: The recovery was too slow

Unemployment remains "unacceptably high"

Low mortgage interest rates show the success of Fed policy

Monetary policy is not omnipotent

Mortgage terms blunts the effect of monetary policy

The Fed needs a normally functioning mortgage market

15:01

U.S.: ISM Manufacturing, November 49.5 (forecast 51.5)

15:00

U.S.: Construction Spending, m/m, October +1.4% (forecast +0.5%)

14:31

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS:

Sold E6.767bln vs target E5.8bln-E7.0bln

- E3.796bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.022% (-0.020%), cover 2.99 (2.72)

- E1.575bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.008% (-0.010%), cover 4.05 (3.69)

- E1.396bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.016% (0.019%), cover 3.59 (4.83)

14:00

U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, November 52.8 (forecast 51.7)

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2960, $1.2985, $1.3100, $1.3145/50

USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.10, Y82.25, Y82.60

EUR/GBP stg0.8030

AUD/USD $1.0435, $1.0450 $1.0475

13:17

European session: the dollar fell to a six-week low against the euro

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y October +5.4% +3.9% +2.7%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI November 46.1 47.3 48.5

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) November 44.7 44.7 44.5

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) November 46.8 46.8 46.8

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) November 46.2 46.2 46.2

09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing November 47.3 48.1 49.1

The dollar fell to a six-week low against the euro as a measure of Chinese manufacturing increased, damping demand for the U.S. currency as a haven. China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index in the manufacturing industry rose to 50.6 in November, the highest reading in seven months, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Dec. 1. A measure above 50 indicates expansion.
The euro rose versus all but one of its 16 major peers as Greece prepared to open bids to repurchase bonds issued earlier this year. With Greece preparing to open bids today to repurchase bonds issued earlier this year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Bild newspaper yesterday that euro leaders might consider writing off debt once the country has a budget surplus. Germany has until now ruled out such a scenario as violating European Union treaties. A buyback is crucial for Greece to receive more funding.
A final reading of a gauge of factory output in the euro region will confirm the index was at 46.2 last month, the median estimate of economists showed before Markit Economics releases the figures today. That would be in line with an initial reading published on Nov. 22 that showed a contraction for a 16th-straight month.
The Dollar Index sank to a one-month low before a report today that economists said will show manufacturing in the world’s biggest economy expanded at a slower pace in November. The Institute for Supply Management Inc.’s factory index, a gauge of manufacturing in the U.S., fell to 51.5 in November from 51.7 the prior month, according to median forecast of economists before today’s report. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Australia’s currency fell to the least in a week as a report showed retail sales stagnated in October, adding to speculation the Reserve Bank will lower borrowing costs tomorrow.
Australia’s statistics bureau said retail sales were unchanged in October after climbing in the previous two months. The figure compares with economist predictions for a 0.4 percent advance. Interest-rate swaps data traders see a more than 90 percent chance RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will cut the cash rate target by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, to 3 percent tomorrow.
The British pound continues to strengthen after the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector registered a growth of the UK to 49.1, exceeding forecasts and the previous value. Pound to be an interesting week, given that the Bank of England will hold a meeting on monetary policy. Despite the fact that the market is waiting for the Central Bank left rates and the asset purchase program unchanged, recent comments of the Bank of Mervyn King suggests that, in the coming months, the volume of purchases of government bonds can be increased.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair has grown, setting all-time high at $ 1.3074
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6087
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has set high at Y81.99

In the U.S. at 14:00 GMT will index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in November, and at 15:00 GMT - ISM manufacturing index for November.

13:03

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3100, $1.3070, $1.3050

Bids $1.3005/990, $1.2950/40, $1.2920/15, $1.2905/00

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6175/80, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25, $1.6070/75
Bids $1.6010/00, $1.5965/55, $1.5940-20

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0500, $1.0490, $1.0460, $1.0445/50
Bids $1.0405/00, $1.0355/50

USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.75/80, Y82.60
Bids Y82.00, Y81.80, Y81.50

EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.50, Y108.00, Y107.65/70
Bids Y106.80, Y106.50, Y106.20/15, Y106.00

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8195/200, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00

12:30

BANK OF GREECE: Greek economy to shrink more than 6% in 2012

- Greek economy to contract by 4%-4.5% in 2013

- Greek unemployment to exceed 26% in 2013-14

- All of lost competitiveness regained by 2013

- Uncertainty on place in Eurozone must be ended

- Despite delays, greek reforms are progressing

11:47

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $1.6135 (Nov 2 high)

Resistance 2: $1.6110 (high of the American session on Nov 2)

Resistance 1: $1.6070 (session high)

Current price: $1.6059

Support 1: $1.6010 (Asia session low)

Support 2: $1.5985 (Nov 30 low)

Support 3: $1.5960 (Nov 28 low)

10:45

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS:

Germany sold E2.587bln 6-month Bubill at average yield -0.0168% (-0.0116%), cover 2.5 times (2.0) and E413bln or 13.8% held for secondary market operations vs 12% previously.

10:21

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y82.25

EUR/SEK Sek8.45

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0480, $1.0500

NZD/USD $0.8160