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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 05-12-2012.
Today, the euro retreated from a seven-week high against the dollar, as the disappointing results of the Spanish bond auction and weak economic data for the euro zone prompted investors to lock in profits.
Note that the optimism associated with the fact that Greece would receive more financial aid from international lenders are pushing up the euro in recent weeks, but after the increased concerns about Spain, the single currency began to lose ground. In addition, from a technical point of view has increased the probability of falling below the level of the pair $ 1.31.
Analysts say that after reaching a new high of $ 1.3125, the rate began to show weakness, and if the pair will consolidate below $ 1.3094, then we will have confirmation of the technical picture, which points to the decline in the euro / dollar in the short term.
Also exerted pressure on the euro retail sales data for October, which fell sharply (by 1.2%), compared to the previous month (-0.2%). At the same time, the annual rate also fell much more than expected (3.6% compared to -0.8% in September).
Recall also that tomorrow the ECB will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, which is expected to remain unchanged, but the gloomy outlook for the euro zone remains a possibility for further measures to support the economy.
Note also that the limited impact on the U.S. currency was a separate report, which showed that growth in the U.S. service sector grew in November, more than expected in November.
Some strategists say the euro will be reduced, if there are signs that U.S. policy can avoid the so-called "financial cliff", which could boost demand for the dollar.
British pound during the day trading in a narrow range, even though the weak data released today by the service sector, which increased the likelihood that in the 4th quarter, the economy can once again show the decline after the significant growth in the last quarter.
The yen fell today above Y82 to the dollar, as the growth in the Chinese and other Asian stock markets prompted market participants to sell the currency of refuge, and buy riskier assets.
The dollar was also supported against the yen from the Bank of Japan, which was caused by the comments of the Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura that the central bank is ready to "take appropriate and decisive action" if the economy deviates too far from its base scenario.
The dollar rose against the yen after data showed that the November ISM Non-Manufacturing index in the U.S. rose to 54.7 against 54.2 the previous month and 54.7 forecast. Also, a report showed that U.S. factory orders in October rose 0.8% with a projected increase of 0.1%.
GBP / USD updated intraday low $ 1.6081 after today's statistics showed that in November, employment in the private sector was below forecasts. In November ADP employment in the U.S. was 118 thousand vs. 125 thousand and revised to 157 thousand the previous value.
British Finance Minister George Osborne said that the economy is healthier, and the recovery is gradual and the country is moving in the right direction. Osborne said that the budget deficit will continue to decline, while exports increased by 2 times since 2009. According to him, the economic growth in 2013 will be 1.2%, in 2014 - 2.0%, in 2015 - 2.3% and in 2016 - 2.7%. It should be noted that all the forecasts have been lowered. The budget deficit for this year is 6.9% of GDP, while in 2012-2013. could reach 108 billion pounds, and then decreased to 73 billion pounds in 2015-2016.
EUR/USD $1.3025, $1.3030, $1.3095, $1.3125
USD/JPY Y81.30, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.20, Y82.75
EUR/JPY Y107.00, Y107.90
GBP/USD $1.6060, $1.6030
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
EUR/SEK Sek6.59
AUD/USD $1.0425, $1.0440, $1.0450, $1.0475, $1.0500
08:50 France Services PMI (finally) November 46.1 46.1 45.8
08:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) November 48.0 48.0 49.7
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) November 45.7 45.7 46.7
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services November 50.6 51.1 50.2
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) October -0.2% -0.1% -1.2%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) October -0.8% -0.8% -3.6%
12:30 United Kingdom Autumn Forecast Statement December
The euro fell against the dollar amid rising peripheral bond yields and weak retail sales data.
At today's auction has placed Spain 3 -, 7 - and 10-year bonds in the amount of € 4.25 billion from € 4.50 billion planned yield on 3-year securities was 3.390%, and 7-year - 4.669%, 10-year - 5.29%. The results were quite good, although after sales yield on 10-year bonds showed growth.
Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected in October on the back of weak performance in Spain, particularly in Germany, as reflected seasonally weighted Eurostat report. The index fell by 1.2% m / m and 3.6% y / y and was 1.6% lower than the average of Q3, which was restored by 0.1% after falling 0.8% in Q2. The sale of food, beverages and tobacco products fell by 0.8% in October, excluding food - by 1.4% after falling 1.1% in September.
The business activity of the private sector eurozone declined again in November, but less than in the previous month, and less than that reported previously. This was evidenced by the survey of purchasing managers by Markit Economics, published on Wednesday. Reported Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the euro zone service sector in November rose to 46.7 against 46.0 in October and 45.7 preliminary estimate published last month.
The British pound is trading steadily against the dollar, not reacting to the disappointing data for the services sector, which indicate that in the 4th quarter the economy could once again showed a fall after she had just barely escaped the recession.
The Australian dollar was trading above $ 1.0400, as the data that established the slowing of the Australian economy in the 3rd quarter was not enough to create significant pressure on the Australian dollar. Last quarter, growth in the Australian economy slowed amid falling domestic demand, the value of which reached 2.5-year low, and reducing government spending, which has forced the Central Bank of the country previously to lower interest rates. In annual terms, Australia's GDP rose 3.1% from a revised 3.8% the previous figure, as shown by the Bureau of Statistics released today in Sydney. The result coincided with analysts' forecasts. In the quarterly equivalent of the rise was 0.5% versus 0.6% in the previous period.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3126, and then fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.3060
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.6091 - $ 1.6118
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y82.06
In the U.S. 13:15 GMT GMT will change in the number of employees from ADP for November at 13:30 GMT - changes in the level of labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector in Q3, at 15:00 GMT - the composite index of ISM non-manufacturing sector, the volume change industrial orders for October. At 15:30 GMT Britain publishes autumn forecast of the Treasury. At 15:30 in the U.S., there are data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy. At 19:30 GMT New Zealand publish house price index from REINZ, changes in the volume of home sales from REINZ for November. At 20:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate, will hold a press conference of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the accompanying statement will be made of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will be published minutes of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3200, $1.3170/80, $1.3160, $1.3140
Bids $1.3080/70, $1.3030/25, $1.3000
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6175/80, $1.6130-60, $1.6120
Bids $1.6070/65, $1.6050, $1.6025/20, $1.6010/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0490
Bids $1.0450, $1.0435/30, $1.0410/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.75/80, Y82.60, Y82.50
Bids Y82.00, Y81.80, Y81.50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y109.00, Y108.50, Y108.00
Bids Y107.50, Y107.00, Y106.80, Y106.60/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220, stg0.8195/200
Bids stg0.8110/00, stg0.8065/60
Extending fiscal consolidation into 2017-18
Fiscal consolidation on spending/tax 80/20 by 2015
Sees net debt at 77.3% GDP by 2017-18
OBR forecasts net debt 2012-13 on at 74.7%/GDP; 76.8; 79.0; 79.9
Will meet fiscal mandate including APF transfer
Aiming to hit debt goal 2016/17 not 2015/16
UK deficit 2012-13 forecast 6.9%
Deficit seen 6.1% GDP 2013-14
Deficit seen 5.2% in 2014-15
Britain faces deep problems within the country and abroad
Turning back now would be a disaster
Economy will shrink by 0.1% in 2012, the March forecast assumes growth of 0.8%
Economy will grow by 1.2% in 2013, the March of the Office of Budget Responsibility forecast / OBR / anticipated growth of 2.0%
Economy will grow by 2.0% in 2014, the March forecast OBR anticipated an increase of 2.7%
Economy will grow by 2.3% in 2015, the March forecast OBR anticipated growth of 3.0%
OBR expects peak unemployment rate at 8.3% versus 8.7% previously
Gets shoved down to $1.3060, with traders linking main weight in this latest move to UK clearer sales of euro-yen as well as Asian sovereign
sales of euro-dollar. Next support of note seen at $1.30450. Rate currently trades around $1.3069.
Germany alloted E3.3115bln of its 2-year benchmark 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue Wednesday at average yield of -0.01% (-0.02%), bid-to-cover 1.9 times (1.9).
The reaction of the Australian dollar on rate cut is weaker than usual
Monetary policy remains effective Australia
The Australian dollar is too high
Intervention in the foreign exchange market would be a very serious step
Intervention would be a departure from tradition
I see signs of recovery in the housing market
It is unlikely that Australia will need to resort to unconventional policy
EUR/USD $1.3025, $1.3030, $1.3095, $1.3125
USD/JPY Y81.30, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.20, Y82.75
EUR/JPY Y107.00, Y107.90
GBP/USD $1.6060, $1.6030
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
EUR/SEK Sek6.59
AUD/USD $1.0425, $1.0440, $1.0450, $1.0475, $1.0500
Tesoro sold E4.251bln vs target E3.5bln-E4.5bln
E2.124bln of 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono, cover 1.999 vs 2.09 previous. Avg yield 3.39% vs 3.62% previous
E1.004bln of 4.60% July 2019 Obligaciones, cover 2.47. Avg yield 4.669%
- E1.123bln of 5.85% Jan 2022 Obligaciones, cover 2.29 vs 1.88 previous. Avg yield 5.29% vs 5.46% previous
Yesterday the euro approached to a seven-week high against the dollar after Greece announced a better-than-expected conditions for repayment of debt, thus fueling optimism that Athens will continue to receive international assistance to avoid a possible default. Recall that Greece said it will spend 10 billion euros to buy back the bonds at a price that exceeded market expectations. Note that this news has helped to significantly reduce yields of Italian and Spanish bonds below.
The U.S. dollar weakened to a six-week low against a basket of currencies, as the uncertainty associated with the achievement of an agreement on the prevention of spending cuts and tax increases, remains.
Analysts say that the euro will hold the position until the end of the year, but they also warned that the currency could come under selling pressure in 2013 due to the deterioration in the economy in the eurozone.
The British pound fell against the dollar, as the published data from Markit Economics showed that the PMI in the UK construction sector has fallen, dropping while below 50 to 49.3, up from 50.9 in October. Note that analysts expected drop to 50.5.
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.2% to 79.729, approaching with up to a six-week low at 79.612.
Note that the concern about preventing a "financial cliff" in the U.S. caused by the fall in the dollar, even though the currency acts as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. According to analysts, the dollar will remain weak due to the relatively positive developments in the euro area.
The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, which was caused by the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave interest rate unchanged.
Australian dollar at the beginning of session slightly declined as the Reserve Bank of Australia said about lowering the rate by 0.25% to reach 3.0. But in spite of this decision, which was expected for many, the exchange rate began to rise sharply. It is learned that this trend was due to the fact that some analysts predicted that the rate would be reduced by 0.5%.
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III +0.6% +0.6% +0.5%
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +3.7% +3.1% +3.1%
01:45 China HSBC Services PMI November 53.5 52.1
07:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks -
The euro climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday, boosted by efforts to tackle the debt problems of Greece and Spain, while the dollar came under pressure from expectations of new bond buying by the Federal Reserve.
The single currency could soon test its September peak, although many traders are not convinced it has enough traction to make a clean break from that level, given the fragile state of the euro zone economies.
Greece announced this week better-than-expected terms for its debt buyback, fueling optimism it will continue to receive international aid to avoid a debt default.
Spain's formal request for European funds to recapitalise its banks this week also helped boost confidence in the single currency.
In addition, many market players expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to unveil a fresh bond purchase scheme to replace its Operation Twist, a programme that will expire this month, at its policy meeting on Dec. 11-12. Since September the Fed has been buying a total of $85 billion in long-term securities each month to help push down borrowing costs. Many analysts expect the Fed to keep buying a combined $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds after planned expiry of the Operation Twist, in which it buys $45 billion long-term bonds while selling the same amount of shorter bonds.
The euro also rose to a 11-week high against the Swiss franc, benefiting from a selloff in the Swiss currency after Switzerland's largest banks said earlier in the week they would charge fees and pay negative rates on some franc deposits.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3125.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6115.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y82.35.
Wednesday's European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the release of Spanish October industrial output data offering a further look at the depth of the recession in Spain. However, the main releases start from 0813GMT, as eurozone service sector final November PMI numbers cross the screens. Spanish data is at 0813GMT, Italy at 0843GMT, France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the aggregate eurozone PMI is due at 0858GMT. The UK also sees the release of service sector PMI data, with the November Markit/CIPS Services release due at 0930GMT. More EMU data is expected at 1000GMT, with the release of the October retail trade numbers.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3093 +0,31%
GBP/USD $1,6100 +0,06%
USD/CHF Chf0,9263 +0,09%
USD/JPY Y81,89 -0,42%
EUR/JPY Y107,23 -0,10%
GBP/JPY Y131,86 -0,34%
AUD/USD $1,0470 +0,49%
NZD/USD $0,8236 +0,35%
USD/CAD C$0,9926 -0,24%
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III +0.6% +0.6% +0.5%
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +3.7% +3.1% +3.1%
01:45 China HSBC Services PMI November 53.5 52.1
07:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks -
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9%
08:50 France Services PMI (finally) November 46.1 46.1
08:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) November 48.0 48.0
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) November 45.7 45.7
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services November 50.6 51.1
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) October -0.2% -0.1%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) October -0.8% -0.8%
12:30 United Kingdom Autumn Forecast Statement December
13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report November 158 127
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (finally) Quarter III +1.9% +2.7%
15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing November 54.2 53.8
15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October +4.8% +0.1%
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -0.3
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement -
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference -
23:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
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