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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 07-12-2012.
The single currency fell against most major currencies after it was reported that most members of the European Central Bank showed support for the decision to reduce rates if the economy will not show signs of recovery. Well as the pressure on the exchange rate had a message about lowering the economic outlook in Germany. A little later, the euro continued to fall, as a report showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month. Additionally pleasant surprise was that the U.S. unemployment rate has decreased to almost four-year low. But, despite all these positive data for the dollar, the currency could not hold its positions, and began a sharp decline. Note that this situation was caused by the fact that as the index of consumer sentiment registered a sharp decline, reaching a minimum value at the same time in a year. Analysts say that this was a result of the concern among Americans about "fiscal cliff" has increased markedly.
The Canadian dollar rose while still achieving the highest value for the month, as Statistics Canada reported a significant increase in the number of jobs with the fall in unemployment.
The British pound fell to $ 1.6000 in early U.S. session and retreated to around $ 1.6010. Immediate support is at $ 1.5985 (Nov 30 low).
Euro updated intraday low of $ 1.2876 after data on the U.S. labor market and retreated to $ 1.2910 area.
The dramatic improvement in the economic situation in the euro zone is unlikely
The meeting was dominated by negative news ECB
Pair USD / CAD lost over 50 pips and fell into the 0.9876 area, after a report showed that the employment in Canada in November increased by 59.3 thousand compared to October (forecast 9.3 thousand), and the unemployment rate 7.2% compared to 7.4% in October.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3010, $1.3080
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y82.65, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y107.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0520
USD/CAD C$0.9920
Currently, the USD / JPY was trading at 82.80
08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves November 426.8 422.0 424.8
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October -1.7% +0.9% -0.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.6% -0.5% -3.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October +0.1% -0.2% -1.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October -1.0% -0.2% -2.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations IV quarter +3.2% +3.5%
10:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -
11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) October -1.3% -0.4% -2.6%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) October -1.2% -1.5% -3.7%
The euro declined against most of its 16 major peers after the Bundesbank lowered its 2013 forecast for economic expansion in Germany, following the European Central Bank’s euro-area downgrade.
The shared currency remained lower against the dollar after posting the biggest drop in a month yesterday when the ECB reduced growth forecasts, leaving the door open for interest- rate cuts.
The Frankfurt-based Bundesbank cut its growth projection for 2013 to 0.4 percent from the 1.6 percent predicted in June and said the economy, Europe’s largest, will expand 0.7 percent this year, down from its previous forecast of 1 percent. The economy will contract in the fourth quarter and stagnate in the first, the Bundesbank said. It will grow 1.9 percent in 2014, it said.
German industrial production unexpectedly dropped in October as a recession in the euro area and weaker global growth damped demand.
Production fell 2.6 percent from September, when it declined 1.3 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast output would remain unchanged, according to the median of 42 estimates.
The European Union’s statistics office said yesterday that gross domestic product in the euro area fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, when it dropped 0.2 percent. That confirmed an initial estimate last month.
The yen climbed against most major peers after a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck Japan, mirroring movements in the currency after a record temblor in March 2011. Japan’s currency surged to a record level in the days following the quake and the tsunami that led to meltdowns at a nuclear plant in Fukushima. A tsunami alert was issued for northeast Japan after the quake shook buildings in Tokyo today.
Pound drops against the dollar after the October industrial production in Britain fell more than expected, due to decline in the category of food and alcoholic beverages. Today's data showed the weakness of the economy at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Compared to September, production in the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.3%, the biggest drop in the past four months, according to the national statistics office today in London.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.2898
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.6003
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y82.17
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release data on unemployment and employment in November, the change in labor productivity for the 3rd quarter. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will the unemployment rate, changes in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector, changes in the number of employees in the private sector of the economy, changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing sector of the economy, changes in the average hourly wage. At 14:55 GMT the U.S. will release consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in December. At 15:00 GMT the UK there are data on the change in GDP from NIESR for November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3060, $1.3000-30, $1.2990/95, $1.2975, $1.2950
Bids $1.2915, $1.2900, $1.2885/80, $1.2850
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6175/80, $1.6130-60, $1.6120, $1.6100, $1.6075/85
Bids $1.6025/15, $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5965/55
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0525, $1.0500
Bids $1.0455/50, $1.0435/30, $1.0410/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.60/65, Y82.45/50
Bids Y82.15/10, Y82.00, Y81.80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.00, Y107.50, Y107.00, Y106.80/85
Bids Y106.00, Y105.80, Y105.50, Y105.00
Some waves as high as 1 meter reached the Pacific coast of Miyagi and other prefectures that were devastated by the March 2011 disaster.
--External & fiscal imbalances are starting to be unwound
--Efforts to regain competitivity are bearing early fruit
--Deleveraging is generally proceeding in an orderly way
--Despite the progress, 'much still needs to be done'
--Credit flows to real economy suffering in parts of emu
--Need other strong european institutions besides ecb
--Joining EMU should imply greater sharing of sovereignty
--German 2012 inflation 2.1% (2.1%), 2013 1.5% (1.6%)
--German 2012 unempl rate 6.8% (6.7%), 2013 7.2% (6.5%)
--Drop in germany economic activity possible in 4q 2012,1q 2013
--See German 2014 GDP +1.9%, infl +1.6%, unemployment 7.0%
The USD / JPY fell from 82.40 to 82.17, as investors reacted to the Japanese earthquake of magnitude 7.4, the epicenter of which was in the coast of Miyagi prefecture north of Tokyo. For Miyagi prefecture issued an official warning about the threat of a tsunami. Traders have compared to the earthquake in March 2011, after which investors thought that the yen will be sold on the market, but in reality it was bought, and learned the lesson.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3010, $1.3080
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.30, Y82.50, Y82.65, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y107.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0520
USD/CAD C$0.9920
Yesterday rate of the euro fell sharply against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economic weakness to continue in the next year, and therefore, the central bank may resort to lower interest rates.
Also, data released showed that the gross domestic product in the euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous three months. When it fell by 0.2 percent.
The single currency fell from nearly seven-month high against the yen after the European Central Bank has lowered its growth forecasts and said it sees "risks" for the region. Draghi said that the ECB predicts economy will shrink by 0.5% this year, slightly more than the 0.4% reduction which was originally reported in September. Meanwhile, the ECB cut its outlook for 2013, stating that the economy could shrink by 0.3% (initially show an increase of 0.5%), while in 2014 the growth of 1%. In addition, the ECB also lowered its inflation forecast for next year to 1.6% from 1.9%.
British pound during the first half of the day was growing against the dollar amid data showing that Britain's trade deficit widened more than expected, driven by a sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU, and also due to the increase of imports from USA. The data showed that the deficit rose to Stg9.539 billion from - Stg8.439 billion the previous month, while economists had expected that figure will-Stg8.6 billion Also, the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0 , 5% and the amount of the program of asset purchases at around 375 billion pounds.
But, despite this, the currency could not hold its positions, and dramatically collapsed, which was due to lower growth forecast by the ECB.
The yen strengthened against most major currencies as investors sought safer assets. The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-month high against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of the country said that the growth is likely to accelerate. Also, the RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%.
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October -1.46 -2.15 -2.08
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index October 91.6 92.0 92.5
05:00 Japan Coincident Index October 91.5 91.0 90.6
Japan’s currency retreated versus the dollar before data which may confirm the economy shrank, adding weight to stimulus calls from the front-runner to become the next prime minister at elections this month. A final reading on Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product will probably confirm a 0.9 percent contraction from the previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data due on Dec. 10. A separate poll shows economists expect GDP will shrink in the current quarter. The BOJ sets policy on Dec. 19-20.
Demand for the euro was limited before a report which may add to signs of slowdown in Europe’s economy. German industrial production probably stagnated in October from the previous month, when it declined 1.8 percent, according to the median estimate of economists estimate before the data today.
The European Union’s statistics office said yesterday that GDP in the euro area fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, when it dropped 0.2 percent. That confirmed an initial estimate last month.
ECB President Mario Draghi said yesterday the euro-area economy is forecast to shrink 0.5 percent this year, more than the 0.4 percent contraction the central bank predicted in September.
The Australian dollar was set for a five-day advance before Chinese data next week that may show growth picking up at the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner. China’s industrial production probably rose 9.8 percent in November from a year earlier, the fastest pace since March, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. Retail sales are forecast to have increased 14.6 percent last month, compared with a 14.5 percent gain in October. The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the figures on Dec. 9.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2955-75.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6035-55.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y82.35-55.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2970 -0,75%
GBP/USD $1,6049 -0,27%
USD/CHF Chf0,9323 +0,64%
USD/JPY Y82,39 -0,08%
EUR/JPY Y106,84 -0,86%
GBP/JPY Y132,22 -0,36%
AUD/USD $1,0484 +0,28%
NZD/USD $0,8327 +0,49%
USD/CAD C$0,9910 -0,08%
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October -1.46 -2.15 -2.08
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index October 91.6 92.0 92.5
05:00 Japan Coincident Index October 91.5 91.0
08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves November 424.4 422.0
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October -1.7% +0.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.6% -0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October +0.1% -0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October -1.0% -0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations IV quarter +3.2%
10:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -
11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) October -1.8% -0.4%
11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) October -1.2% -1.5%
13:30 Canada Unemployment rate November 7.4% 7.4%
13:30 Canada Employment November 1.8 9.3
13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate November 7.9% 7.9%
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls November 171 91
13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings November 0.0% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. Average workweek November 34.4 34.4
14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index December 82.7 82.1
15:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks -
15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate November +0.5%
20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit October 11.4 10.0
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