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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 06-12-2012.
Rate of the euro fell sharply against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economic weakness to continue in the next year, and therefore, the central bank may resort to lower interest rates.
Also, data released today showed that the gross domestic product in the euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous three months. When it fell by 0.2 percent.
The single currency fell from nearly seven-month high against the yen after the European Central Bank has lowered its growth forecasts and said it sees "risks" for the region. Draghi said that the ECB predicts economy will shrink by 0.5% this year, slightly more than the 0.4% reduction which was originally reported in September. Meanwhile, the ECB cut its outlook for 2013, stating that the economy could shrink by 0.3% (initially show an increase of 0.5%), while in 2014 the growth of 1%. In addition, the ECB also lowered its inflation forecast for next year to 1.6% from 1.9%.
British pound during the first half of the day was growing against the dollar amid data showing that Britain's trade deficit widened more than expected, driven by a sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU, and also due to the increase of imports from USA. The data showed that the deficit rose to Stg9.539 billion from - Stg8.439 billion the previous month, while economists had expected that figure will-Stg8.6 billion Also today, the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0 , 5% and the amount of the program of asset purchases at around 375 billion pounds.
But, despite this, the currency could not hold its positions, and dramatically collapsed, which was due to lower growth forecast by the ECB.
The yen strengthened against most major currencies as investors sought safer assets. The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-month high against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of the country said that the growth is likely to accelerate. Also today, the RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partners, rose by 0.6% to 80.278. Recall that yesterday it dropped to its lowest level since Oct. 23.
--No sign of medium term inflation risks increasing
--EMU bank credit supply,demand remain low
--See concrete, measurable progress in EMU periphery
--ECB forecast revisions don't change need for fiscal consolidation
--ECB OMT aims to remove fx risk, not unify interest rates
Pound continued to decline against the dollar after the ECB decided to leave rates unchanged, but lowered the outlook for growth and inflation. In addition, the head of the Bank said that the members of the Governing Council discussed the possibility of lowering rates.
Day falling EUR / USD has accelerated at a press conference by ECB President Draghi, who confirmed that the decrease in rates has been discussed, but in the end the majority voted for its preservation.
Pair falling happened after the Bank confirmed market expectations, lowered its forecast for growth and stating that the weak activity in the euro area will continue in 2013. Draghi also said that the ECB has been no active discussion of Greek debt buy-back program.
Currently, the EUR / USD is 1.2980, which is 0.67% below its opening price.
Pair USD / CAD hardly reacted to the weekly report on the U.S. labor market, according to which the number of applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 370 thousand, lower than forecast. In addition, in October, the number of building permits in Canada increased by 15% m / m vs. -12.7% in September. The next release will be the Canadian Ivey PMI, and then review of the Bank of Canada. Currently the pair is trading at 0.9910 area.
"Obviously," the scale of the ECB oversight over private banks will depend on the size of
It is obvious that the ECB will not be able to supervise the banks 6000
Economic recovery to begin in the second half of 2013
Must overcome the fragmentation of the financial and credit markets
Credit growth is limited mainly due to demand factors
Too early to talk about how there is a redemption of bonds of Greece
Greek public sector have been brought considerable demands
We continue to monitor the situation in the economy
About the prospects for the economy are seen mixed signals
Monetary conditions remain soft, especially after the decision to perform OMT
Mid-term assessment of price stability has not changed significantly
Weak economic outlook
No one denies the benefits of a single supervisory body for banks in the euro area
I am confident that we will reach agreement on a common supervisory authority for banks
The ECB raised the issue of difficulties lowering deposit rates, but did not pursue the matter
The ECB is much debate
The prevailing consensus - to leave interest rates unchanged
The downside risks associated with the uncertainty surrounding the sovereign debt crisis
There are downside risks to the economic outlook
In September, the ECB experts forecast that GDP growth in 2013 will be between 0.4% and 1.4%
ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2014 will be between 0.2% and 2.2%
ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2013 will be between 0.9% and 0.3%
I am sure that at the forthcoming meeting of the EU will be confirmed by the decisions taken at the June summit
The upcoming meeting of the EU would be an important
Draghi did not comment on the situation in Italy
Need to accelerate structural reforms to boost economic growth, employment
Single supervisory mechanism is necessary for the reintegration of the banking system
It is extremely important to increase the stability of banks, where it is needed
Lack of capital, risk attitudes constrain offer lending in some countries
Restrained credit growth reflects an adjustment of balance
Restrained credit growth reflects the slow growth of the economy, increased risk aversion
In September, the ECB experts predicted that the HICP in 2013 will be 1.3% - 2.5%
Experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / in 2014 will amount to 0.6% -2.2%
Experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / in 2013, experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / d in 2012 to be 2.5%
Underlying price pressures should remain moderate
EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2975, $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.50
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6040, $1.6010
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
EUR/CHF Chf1.2110
AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0500
NZD/USD $0.8240, $0.8220
Inflation is expected to fall below 2% during 2013
The basic rate of monetary growth remains subdued
Inflation rates have decreased in recent years, as expected
The weakness of the euro zone economy is expected to continue in the coming year
Balance correction, stable uncertainty will put pressure on economic activity
The growth in global demand, the soft policy of the ECB will support economic growth
Governments need to reduce the budget, structural imbalances
We will continue the implementation of direct monetary operations (MRO), as is necessary
MRO will be carried out at least until July 9, 2013
Weak economic activity is expected to continue into next year
Financial market confidence was strengthened
Stronger external demand should support export growth
ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2012 will be between -0.6% and -0.4%
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2% +1.0%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9% -1.3%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November +0.1% 0.0% -0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.2% -0.1% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods October -8.4 -8.7 -9.5
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter III -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October -2.4% +0.9% +3.9%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) October -4.7% -5.6% -2.4%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
Euro is rising against the dollar against the decision of the ECB to leave rates unchanged at 0.75%, which was in line with the forecast. The focus of speech Draghi, scheduled for 13.30 GMT, during which the head of the ECB will comment on the decision.
The single currency fell after a report showed that the eurozone economy fell into recession for the second time in the last four years because of slowing trade and reducing government spending. Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1% against 0.2% in the 2nd quarter, as reported today by statistics office in Luxembourg. The annual equivalent rate fell to 0.6% from 0.4% the previous quarter. Government spending fell by 0.2% vs. -0.1%.
November 27 the European authorities who are trying to overcome the crisis, which began in 2009, eased conditions for the provision of aid to Greece and expect to buy back debt. But economists are not sure that this will be enough to save the troubled countries in the region.
In annual terms industrial orders in Germany fell by 2.4% y / y vs. -3.9%, as shown by the Bundesbank, released today. In monthly terms orders rose by 3.9% DM. against 2.4% the previous month. Analysts expected to rise by 0.9%.
In addition, in September, the unemployment rate in Greece has reached a new record high of 26% against 25.3% in August.
The British pound rose against the dollar amid data showing that Britain's trade deficit widened more than expected. In October, the trade deficit widened amid a sharp drop in exports to countries outside the EU, as well as due to increased imports from the U.S., as reported today by the National Office of Statistics. Deficit widened more than expected analysts to Stg9.539 billion from - Stg8.439 billion the previous month, while economists had expected that figure will-Stg8.6 billion Imports rose by 2.5% m / m, While export volumes declined by 1%.
Today the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates at 0.5% and the volume of the program of asset purchases 375 billion pounds, as expected. Minutes of the meeting will be published by the Central Bank on Wednesday, December 19. The interest rate has remained at 0.5% since March 2009, while the asset purchase program was expanded by 50 billion to £ 375 billion July 5, 2012.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.3041, and then rose to $ 1.3086
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.6077, and then rose to $ 1.6127
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y82.31
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the change in volume of building permits issued in October. At 13:30 GMT to begin monthly press conference of the ECB. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will publish the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. At 15:00 GMT in Canada comes from the PMI index Ivey (seasonally adjusted) from the Ivey PMI index for November. At 15:30 GMT the Bank of Canada will publish a review of the financial system for the 2nd half.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3160, $1.3150, $1.3140, $1.3100, $1.3185
Bids $1.3040, $1.3030-25, $1.3000
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6200, $1.6175/80, $1.6130-60, $1.6120
Bids $1.6070, $1.6050, $1.6025/20, $1.6010/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0500
Bids $1.0455/50, $1.0435/30, $1.0410/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.75/80, Y82.60/65
Bids Y82.25/20, Y82.00, Y81.80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y109.00, Y108.50, Y108.00
Bids Y107.00, Y106.80, Y106.60/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220, stg0.8195/200
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20
AFT sold E3.97bln vs target E3.0bln-E4.0bln
- E1.375bln of 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, avg yield 1.01% (1.29%), cover 3.38 (3.82)
- E1.695bln of 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT, avg yield 1.27%, cover 2.77
- E0.9bln of 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT, avg yield 2.56%, cover 3.53
Correction of the single currency from session lows around $ 1.3080 stalled after a report on the euro area's GDP showed that economic activity in the region decreased by 0.1% q / q and 0.6% y / y in Q3, which was in line with analysts' expectations . In addition, in September, the unemployment rate in Greece has reached a new record high of 26% against 25.3% in August.
The immediate resistance for the pair EUR / USD is located at $ 1.3130/40 (area of 17 and 18 October and 5 December).
EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2975, $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.50
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6040, $1.6010
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
EUR/CHF Chf1.2110
AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0500
NZD/USD $0.8240, $0.8220
Yesterday the euro retreated from a seven-week high against the dollar, as the disappointing results of the Spanish bond auction and weak economic data for the euro zone prompted investors to lock in profits.
Note that the optimism associated with the fact that Greece would receive more financial aid from international lenders are pushing up the euro in recent weeks, but after the increased concerns about Spain, the single currency began to lose ground. In addition, from a technical point of view has increased the probability of falling below the level of the pair $ 1.31.
Analysts say that after reaching a new high of $ 1.3125, the rate began to show weakness, and if the pair will consolidate below $ 1.3094, then we will have confirmation of the technical picture, which points to the decline in the euro / dollar in the short term.
Also exerted pressure on the euro retail sales data for October, which fell sharply (by 1.2%), compared to the previous month (-0.2%). At the same time, the annual rate also fell much more than expected (3.6% compared to -0.8% in September).
Recall also that the ECB will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, which is expected to remain unchanged, but the gloomy outlook for the euro zone remains a possibility for further measures to support the economy.
Note also that the limited impact on the U.S. currency was a separate report, which showed that growth in the U.S. service sector grew in November, more than expected in November.
Some strategists say the euro will be reduced, if there are signs that U.S. policy can avoid the so-called "financial cliff", which could boost demand for the dollar.
British pound during the day trading in a narrow range, even though the weak data released by the service sector, which increased the likelihood that in the 4th quarter, the economy can once again show the decline after the significant growth in the last quarter.
The yen fell above Y82 to the dollar, as the growth in the Chinese and other Asian stock markets prompted market participants to sell the currency of refuge, and buy riskier assets.
The dollar was also supported against the yen from the Bank of Japan, which was caused by the comments of the Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura that the central bank is ready to "take appropriate and decisive action" if the economy deviates too far from its base scenario.
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.4% 5.5% 5.2%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.7 0.2 13.9
The euro fell from a seven-week high against the dollar before a report forecast to show the currency bloc’s economy contracted, adding to signs its three-year debt crisis is hindering growth. The euro area’s GDP probably slipped 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would confirm data from last month showing the bloc fell into a recession for the second time in four years. Economists in a separate poll expect the ECB will leave its key rate unchanged at 0.75 percent today.
The common currency slid versus most of its 16 major peers after Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece to selective default. Greece’s credit grade was cut to SD, or selective default, from CCC, S&P said on its website yesterday. The nation has offered 10 billion euros ($13.1 billion) to buy back bonds issued earlier this year in an attempt to cut a debt load that may threaten future international aid. Along with data due today on the euro area’s third-quarter gross domestic product, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and his board meet on policy.
The New Zealand dollar rose against most of its main counterparts after Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said the outlook for the nation’s economy is stronger and policy makers kept interest rates steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent, in line with the estimates of 16 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3045.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6085-00.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y82.60.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3067 -0,20%
GBP/USD $1,6093 -0,04%
USD/CHF Chf0,9263 0,00%
USD/JPY Y82,46 +0,69%
EUR/JPY Y107,76 +0,49%
GBP/JPY Y132,70 +0,63%
AUD/USD $1,0455 -0,14%
NZD/USD $0,8286 +0,60%
USD/CAD C$0,9918 -0,08%
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.4% 5.5% 5.2%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.7 0.2 13.9
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.0% 3.0%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November +0.1% 0.0%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.2% -0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods October -8.4 -8.7
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter III -0.6% -0.6%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October -3.3% +0.9%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) October -4.7% -5.6%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75%
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) October -13.2% +2.3%
13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 393 381
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 58.3 58.8
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