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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-12-2012.
The euro approached today to a seven-week high against the dollar after Greece announced a better-than-expected conditions for repayment of debt, thus fueling optimism that Athens will continue to receive international assistance to avoid a possible default. Recall that Greece said it will spend 10 billion euros to buy back the bonds at a price that exceeded market expectations. Note that this news has helped to significantly reduce yields of Italian and Spanish bonds below.
The U.S. dollar weakened to a six-week low against a basket of currencies, as the uncertainty associated with the achievement of an agreement on the prevention of spending cuts and tax increases, remains.
Analysts say that the euro will hold the position until the end of the year, but they also warned that the currency could come under selling pressure in 2013 due to the deterioration in the economy in the eurozone.
The British pound fell against the dollar, as the published data from Markit Economics showed that the PMI in the UK construction sector has fallen, dropping while below 50 to 49.3, up from 50.9 in October. Note that analysts expected drop to 50.5.
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.2% to 79.729, approaching with up to a six-week low at 79.612.
Note that the concern about preventing a "financial cliff" in the U.S. caused by the fall in the dollar, even though the currency acts as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. According to analysts, the dollar will remain weak due to the relatively positive developments in the euro area.
The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, which was caused by the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave interest rate unchanged.
Australian dollar at the beginning of today's session slightly declined as the Reserve Bank of Australia said about lowering the rate by 0.25% to reach 3.0. But in spite of this decision, which was expected for many, the exchange rate began to rise sharply. It is learned that this trend was due to the fact that some analysts predicted that the rate would be reduced by 0.5%.
Airing at 12:30 pm ET, Goldman and the president will discuss the fiscal cliff - now just four weeks away.
Too early to determine, whether a weakening housing market, credit growth
The situation in the world economy corresponds October forecasts
U.S. economic growth continues at a moderate pace, hampered by uncertainty about the fiscal cliff
Commodity prices remained strong, global inflationary pressures have eased
Assessment of imbalances in the housing market - a factor that will have to take into account when minimizing incentives
The basic impulse in the economy is slightly weaker-than-expected growth will accelerate during 2013
Consumption, investment companies will set the course of economic growth
GDP in the 3rd quarter was weaker, partly due to temporary disruptions in the energy sector
Inflation has evolved broadly in line with forecasts, basic, general inflation back to 2% over the next 12 months
Activity in the housing market begins to decline from the historically high levels
The debt burden of households continues to grow, the growth of lending to households slowed
Exports gradually increased, but will be restrained by weak demand, persistently high Canadian dollar
EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3050
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.30, Y82.00, Y82.35, Y82.50
EUR/JPY Y105.00
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6000
EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8020
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0325
EFSF sold E1.432bln of a new 3-month Bill at average yield -0.047% vs -0.0291% prev, cover 3.6 vs 3.0 prev
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction November 50.9 50.7 49.3
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM October +0.2% 0.0% +0.1%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) October +2.7% +2.5% +2.6%
The euro rose against the dollar, as markets are more optimistic after the new developments in Europe and on expectations that the Fed will continue its monthly bond purchases after Operation Twist.
In the European session, the single currency is testing the level of $ 1.3100 against the fact that the desire for risk is enhanced by the talk of the ECB and the oversight role of the time frame of the bank granting these functions. In addition, the EU agreed to hold another meeting on December 12 to discuss the creation of the banking union.
On the eve of Spain formally asked the European Union to assist the banking system in the amount of EUR 39.5 billion by mid-December. Spain's borrowing costs continued to decline, and the yield on 10-year bonds yesterday closed lower by 6.5 b. n to 5.253%, with a minimum of 20 March.
As the market got a chance to know the details of Greece's debt repurchase program. The country plans to buy bonds in the amount of approximately E10 million at prices higher than expected. Value of the bond varies depending on the term of the investment: 38.1% of face value - for securities with a term expiration in 2023, 30.2% - for bonds with a term expiration in 2042, the yield on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 128 MB . § to 14.56% yesterday.
Today's report showed that euro zone producer prices rose by 0.1% m / m and 2.6% y / y Figure was higher than forecasts of 0.0% and 2.5%.
The British pound rose against the dollar despite the fact that the PMI in the UK construction sector fell into the territory of the decline in November, falling below 50 to 49.3 from 50.9 in October, as shown by Markit Economics. Analysts had expected a drop to 50.5.
The Swiss franc fell to 11-week low against the euro on expectations that other banks will join Credit Suisse Group AG and will charge interest for holding deposits in francs.
On Monday, Credit Suisse announced that it will introduce negative interest rates in order to cope with the demand for the franc. The second-largest Swiss lender Credit Suisse announced that it will set the negative interest rates on cash accounts. However, he does not have what will this rate. The new rules come into effect from December 10. This policy applies only to the inter-bank deposits, and does not apply to accounts held by individual investors.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair steadily rising, setting all-time high at $ 1.3097
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6125
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair set a minimum at Y81.86
At 14:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate will be done the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. At 21:30 GMT the U.S. will publish the change in the volume of crude oil, according to API. At 22:30 GMT Australia will index of activity in the service sector of the AiG in November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3170/80, $1.3140/60, $1.3120, $1.3100
Bids $1.3040/35, $1.3025/20, $1.3010/990
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6175/80, $1.6130-60
Bids $1.6070/65, $1.6050, $1.6025/20, $1.6010/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0490
Bids $1.0435/30, $1.0410/00, $1.0355/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.75/80, Y82.60, Y82.50, Y82.25/30
Bids Y81.80, Y81.50, Y81.40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.00, Y107.65/70, Y107.50
Bids Y106.80, Y106.60/50, Y106.20/15
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8195/200, stg0.8150, stg0.8130/35
Bids stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00
No one can say with certainty when the crisis of sovereign debt
Out of the crisis will be long and painful
Growth rates of the German economy in the next year will weaken
Germany can only thrive in prosperity for the entire eurozone
Eurozone requires a coordinated fiscal policy
There is a huge difference between the supervisory role and conduct of monetary policy
The final decision may not be taken by the Governing Council of the ECB
We must not allow the banking supervisory authority is independent from the central bank
Can be made an interim decision
There is doubt about the fact that the Bundestag approved the creation of the supervisory authority over all German banks
I do not support the voting process on the principle of a double majority system of banking supervision
Do not look for that decision will be made in a short time
EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3050
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.30, Y82.00, Y82.35, Y82.50
EUR/JPY Y105.00
GBP/USD $1.6000
EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8020
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0500, $1.0325
Yesterday the euro rose to six-week high against the dollar, which was caused by information that Greece may hold an auction to buy back government securities in the amount of 10 billion euros ($ 13 billion). In connection with this concern that the debt crisis in the region is deteriorating slightly decreased.
The dollar index (DXY) dropped to one-month low amid tightening position among U.S. lawmakers about how to avoid the so-called "financial failure."
Also, Credit Suisse Group AG said some customers that will introduce negative interest rates on cash balances in Swiss francs. Against this background rate EUR / CHF showed the biggest increase since September, and reached CHF1.2086.
At the same time, analysts say that the euro is likely to survive, because, despite the fact that Europe has a serious problem, more and more people are coming to the realization that these problems will continue to exist, though for a long time, but they are not fatal.
We also note that today the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds fell to 5.2%, the lowest level since March, while the yield of similar bonds in Italy dropped to 4.4%, which is the minimum value for the year.
Pound increased since released a report showed that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector reached Britain climbed to 49.1 from 47.3, exceeding forecasts at 48.1.
Also this trend was due to the fact that market participants are waiting for the meeting of the Monetary Policy of the Bank of England, to be held this week. This interest is caused by the recent comments of the Bank of Mervyn King suggests that, in the coming months, the volume of purchases of government bonds can be increased.
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y November -0.1% +0.9% +0.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m October +9.5% -1.8% -7.6%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y October +12.4% +20.2% +14.5%
00:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter III -12.4 -14.7 -14.9
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY October 0.0% +0.4% +0.2%
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
The euro traded 0.1 percent from a six-week high versus the dollar before European Union finance ministers meet in Brussels today amid optimism the region can find solutions for its debt crisis.
The euro held a three-day gain against the yen after Greece offered to spend as much as 10 billion euros ($13 billion) to buy back government securities and as Spain said it expects funds for bank recapitalization next week. Greece invited holders of bonds to tender their securities in a so-called modified Dutch auction, the Athens-based Public Debt Management Agency said in a statement yesterday on its website. PDMA offered an average maximum purchase price for the bonds maturing from 2023 to 2042 of 34.1 percent. The offer runs to 5 p.m. London time on Dec. 7.
The dollar remained lower as U.S. lawmakers continue negotiations on how to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases. In the U.S., House Republicans, rejecting President Barack Obama’s demand for higher tax rates, countered with a $2.2 trillion deficit-cutting plan that would trim Medicare and Social Security and cap tax deductions for top earners. The proposal, in a letter yesterday to Obama from House Speaker John Boehner and other Republican leaders, seeks $800 billion in tax revenue in the next decade and would slow the growth in Social Security cost-of-living payments.
Demand for Australia’s currency was limited as swaps trades indicate a 93 percent chance the Reserve Bank will lower the overnight cash-rate target today. Nineteen out of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a 25 basis point cut to 3 percent today.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3045-65.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6085-00.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y82.05.(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3052 +0,38%
GBP/USD $1,6090 +0,44%
USD/CHF Chf0,9255 -0,12%
USD/JPY Y82,23 -0,23%
EUR/JPY Y107,34 +0,15%
GBP/JPY Y132,31 +0,21%
AUD/USD $1,0419 -0,15%
NZD/USD $0,8207 -0,02%
USD/CAD C$0,9950 +0,16%
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y November -0.1% +0.9% +0.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m October +9.5% -1.8% -7.6%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y October +12.4% +20.2% +14.5%
00:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter III -12.4 -14.7 -14.9
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY October 0.0% +0.4% +0.2%
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction November 50.9 50.7
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM October +0.2% 0.0%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) October +2.7% +2.5%
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate - 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement -
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index November 42.8
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