Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 16-05-2012.

Greek exit from eurozone not for the ECB to decide

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2930

USD/JPY Y79.60, Y79.80, Y80.00, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6100

USD/CHF Chf0.9300

AUD/USD $0.9950, $1.0000, $1.0020

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6090/95, $1.6055/65, $1.6020, $1.5990/000, $1.5965/75, $1.5930/40

Bids $1.5880, $1.5850

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0065/70, $1.0040/50, $1.0020/30, $1.0015, $1.0000, $0.9980/85, $0.9945/50

Bids $0.9870, $0.9850, $0.9800, $0.9750, $0.9730/25

USD/JPY

Offers Y81.50, Y81.40/45, Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.85/90, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55

Bids Y80.20/15, Y80.10/00, Y79.85/80, Y79.65/60, Y79.50, Y79.40, Y79.25

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (50.0 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40, Apr 20 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.20 (38,2 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40)
Resistance 1: Y80.55/60 (area of May 2-3 highs)
Current price: Y80.49
Support 1: Y80.20 (resistance line from Mar 21 broken earlier)
Support 2: Y79.90 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Y79.70 (area of May 11-14 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9600 (area of high of January)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9500 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9470 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9442
Support 1: Chf0.9420 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9370 (support line from May 1)
Support 3: Chf0.9330 (May 15 low)

Комментарии: пара тестирует линию сопротивления от ноября 2010 года. На D1 индикатор RSI поднялся выше отметки 70 пунктов, что является сигналом перепроданности и указывает на высокие шансы начала коррекции.

Resistance 3 : $1.6110/20 (May 14-15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6040 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5890)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990 (intraday high)

Current price: $1.5918

Support 1 : $1.5890 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (Apr 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.5820 (Apr 16 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2870 (May 15 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2800 (resistance line from May 11)
Resistance 1 : $1.2740 (session high)
Current price: $1.2719
Support 1 : $1.2680 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2620 (low of January)
Support 3 : $1.2600/90 (low of August’2008)

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2930

USD/JPY Y79.60, Y79.80, Y80.00, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6100

USD/CHF Chf0.9300

AUD/USD $0.9950, $1.0000, $1.0020

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -1.6% 0.8%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +1.0% +0.9% +0.9%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.6% +3.5% +3.6%

The euro fell to the lowest level in almost four months after Greece’s political leaders failed to form a ruling coalition, deepening speculation the country will have to leave the currency bloc. Demand for the euro was damped before Greek leaders seek agreement today on an interim government that will schedule new elections. New elections in Greece may be scheduled as early as June 10 after President Karolos Papoulias failed to broker a governing coalition in meetings yesterday with Pasok party head Evangelos Venizelos and other political leaders. The new ballot will follow an inconclusive May 6 vote that produced no clear majority.

The Dollar Index extended its longest stretch of daily advances on record as Asian stocks continued a global rout and before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its April meeting.  The Fed will release minutes of its April 25 meeting later today. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after the most recent meeting of policy makers that he’s prepared to “do more” to boost the economic recovery and ensure that inflation remains close to target. Officials have said borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.

The yen extended yesterday’s decline against the dollar after data from Japan’s Cabinet Office showed machinery orders decreased 2.8 percent in March after climbing a revised 2.8 percent in the previous month. The median economist estimate signaled at 3.5 percent drop. Orders can swing between gains and declines depending on the timing of major projects.

The New Zealand dollar declined for a fourth day versus the greenback after after Auckland-based Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, said prices for whole- milk powder for July delivery fell to the lowest since August 2009, according to a trade-weighted index. The so-called kiwi lost 0.5 percent to 76.57 U.S. cents.

EUR/USD: the pair lowered to $1.2700.

GBP/USD: the pair continued yesterday's falling.

USD/JPY: the pair gain above yesterday's high.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with German wholesale prices data and also ACEA new car registrations data. EMU data at 0900GMT includes the March trade balance as well as the final reading for April HICP. At 1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give the welcome address at an ECB colloquium in honour of Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, in Frankfurt. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is due at 0930GMT with Governor Mervyn King leading the usual press conference. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while at 1230GMT, the pace of housing starts is expected to rise to 685,000 in April after slowing in the previous two months. Canadian manufacturing data is due at the same time. US data continues at 1315GMT when industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April after holding steady in February and March. The weekly EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. At 1545GMT, World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, while at 1630GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the Lousiville branch of the Bank on the subject of "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy." Later, at 1800GMT, the latest Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest in almost four months versus the dollar as talks to form a Greek government failed, fueling concern the nation may leave the shared currency and boosting investor demand for safety. Greek President Karolos Papoulias’ meeting in Athens with political leaders failed to produce a government after an inconclusive May 6 vote. He called for a meeting  to form a caretaker government to lead the country until the vote. A second election threatened to extend the country’s political gridlock and reignited speculation Greece will renege on its pledges to cut spending, required by the terms of its 240 billion euros ($306 billion) in bailouts. It added to bets Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen.

The euro gained earlier after the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said gross domestic product in the region stagnated in the first quarter compared with the prior three months. Germany’s 0.5 percent expansion at five times the pace economists had estimated helped offset weaker GDP in the euro area’s peripheral economies.

Sterling reached the strongest level against the euro since November 2008 as investors sought an alternative to the 17- nation currency. The pound gained 0.1 percent, erasing earlier losses, to 79.60 pence per euro before trading little changed at 79.72 pence.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, lowered below $1.2800.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, lowered below $1.6000.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose above Y80.00.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with German wholesale prices data and also ACEA new car registrations data. EMU data at 0900GMT includes the March trade balance as well as the final reading for April HICP. At 1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give the welcome address at an ECB colloquium in honour of Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, in Frankfurt. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is due at 0930GMT with Governor Mervyn King leading the usual press conference. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while at 1230GMT, the pace of housing starts is expected to rise to 685,000 in April after slowing in the previous two months. Canadian manufacturing data is due at the same time. US data continues at 1315GMT when industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April after holding steady in February and March. The weekly EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. At 1545GMT, World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, while at 1630GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the Lousiville branch of the Bank on the subject of "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy." Later, at 1800GMT, the latest Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Y80.50/55 (area of May 2-3 high)

The current price: Y80.36

Support 1: Y80.15 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.95 (high of the Asian session on May 15)

Support 3: Y79.65 (May 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9525 (Jan 16 low)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9495 (Jan 18 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9455 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9443

Support 1: Chf0.9425 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9375 (high of the Asian session on May 15)

Support 3: Chf0.9330 (May 15 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6115/20 (area of May 14-15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6050 (May 14 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.6000 (session high)

The current price: $1.5963

Support 1 : $1.5935 (Apr 11 high)

Support 2 : $1.5895 (Apr 18 low)

Support 3 : $1.5860 (Apr 17 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2870 (May 15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2815 (low of the Asian session on May 15)

Resistance 1 : $1.2740 (session high)

The current price: $1.2708

Support 1 : $1.2700 (psychological level)

Support 2 : $1.2650/60 (area of Jan 11 and 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.2625 (low of January)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2733 -0,72%

GBP/USD $1,5997 -0,62%

USD/CHF Chf0,9432 +0,73%

USD/JPY Y80,23 +0,46%

EUR/JPY Y102,17 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y128,34 -0,15%

AUD/USD $0,9937 -0,18%

NZD/USD $0,7691 -1,03%

USD/CAD C$1,0065 +0,37%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -1.6%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +1.0% +0.9%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.6% +3.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April 3.6 4.9

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 4.9% 5.0%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 8.3% 8.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +1.1% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y March +1.6% +1.4%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 2.1

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI April +1.3% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) April +2.7% +2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y April +1.6% +1.5%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. March 3.7 4.3

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report Quarter II

11:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications May +1.7%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) March -0.3% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln April 0.747 0.730

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln April 0.654 0.680

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) April 0.0% +0.6%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization April 78.6% 78.9%

14:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes -

20:00 U.S. Treasury Currency Report May

22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) April -1.0%

22:45 New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) Quarter I +0.5% 0.0%

22:45 New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.2%

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% +0.9%