Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 31-01-2012.

The euro fell to its weakest level in almost a week versus the dollar as investors speculated European policy makers won’t be able to reach an agreement regarding Greece’s debt obligations. The euro weakened against the majority of its most- traded peers as Standard & Poor’s increased the number of Portuguese banks on “creditwatch negative.” Greece pledged a last-ditch effort to prevent the collapse of a second rescue package from creditors, aiming to complete talks this week on a financial lifeline that’s been in the works for six months.

The dollar and yen pared earlier losses as stocks fell after consumer confidence and business activity in the U.S. was weaker than forecast in January. The dollar gained against half its major counterparts after Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer decreased to 60.2 from 62.2 in December. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in January as gas prices picked up and more Americans said jobs are hard to get.

European stocks rose, posting their best monthly start to a year since 1998, as most countries in the region agreed to tighter budget controls, outweighing worse- than-estimated economic data.

European Union leaders, meeting in Brussels yesterday, agreed on a fiscal-discipline treaty that allows for sanctions on high-deficit states and requires members to enact laws to limit budget shortfalls. Britain and the the Czech Republic refused to sign the pact.

The policy makers also decided to bring the region’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, into operation on July 1, a year before schedule.

Greece aims to complete debt-swap talks with bondholders this week. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told reporters after summit that he is “strongly committed” to reaching a deal.

German unemployment dropped more than economists forecast to a two-decade low in January. The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 34,000 to 2.85 million, the Federal Labor Agency said. That’s the biggest drop since March.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.2 percent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.2 percent, and France’s CAC 40 gained 1 percent.

Oil gained after the December industrial output rose more than forecast in Japan, the third-biggest crude consumer. BP, Europe’s second-largest oil producer, gained 2.7 percent to 470.85 pence. Shell and Total SA gained 0.5 percent to 2,240.5 pence and 1.5 percent to 40.41 euros, respectively.

ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, rose 2.7 percent to 21.67 euros in Frankfurt after agreeing to sell its Inoxum stainless steel unit to Outokumpu Oyj. The deal valued the German company’s unit at about 2.7 billion euros. ThyssenKrupp will retain a 29.9 percent stake in the business, receive 1 billion euros in cash, and transfer liabilities of 422 million euros for Inoxum to Outokumpu. Outokumpu fell 15 percent to 6.27 euros in Helsinki.

ARM Holdings jumped 2 percent to 609.5 pence. The maker of processors for Apple Inc.’s iPads and iPhones said fourth- quarter revenue climbed 21 percent as the company increased the number of licenses sold for smartphones and tablet computers.

U.S. stocks reversed gains, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its longest decline since November, as reports showed consumer confidence trailed economists’ projections and business activity cooled.

Stocks erased gains as reports showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in January and a gauge of business activity fell, underscoring forecasts that the U.S. economy will cool after expanding at the fastest pace since the second quarter 2010. Earlier gains were triggered after most countries in Europe agreed to tighter budget controls and Greece made progress on debt talks.

Dow 12,607.44 -46.28 -0.37%, Nasdaq 2,807.60 -4.34 -0.15%, S&P 500 1,310.40 -2.61 -0.20%

Exxon Mobil dropped 2.1 percent to $83.66. Revenue rose 16 percent to $121.6 billion during the quarter, less than the $124.4 billion average of five analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

UPS lost 1.1 percent to $75.34. The company reported sales of $14.17 billion, missing the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey of $14.45 billion.

ADM sank 5 percent to $28.24. The company, led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Patricia Woertz, has missed analysts’ estimates for three straight quarters. Operating profit at the agricultural-services unit, the company’s largest segment by revenue in fiscal 2011, fell 63 percent to $158 million after U.S. grain exports declined because of a smaller domestic crop and “adequate” global supplies, ADM said.

RadioShack Corp. tumbled 30 percent to $7.18 after the consumer-electronics retailer suspended share repurchases and reported preliminary fourth-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates.

Gold prices rise due to the weakening dollar and get ready to show in January, the strongest growth since August 2011.

The euro is rising against the dollar in the hope that Greece will be able to restructure debt and avoid default in March. Although this reduces the attractiveness of gold as a safe asset, concerns about Portugal and evidence of weak performance of the eurozone in the first quarter, support the market.

Yield on 10-year government bonds of Portugal close to 17 percent, from close to its highest level in history, 17.4 per cent of the eurozone. Investors fear that Lisbon is on the way in Athens.

Gold prices rise for four weeks, the growth began on the eve of Chinese New Year due to purchases in China.

Cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1747.7 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300, $1.3260/80, $1.3215

Bids $1.3160/50, $1.3110/00, $1.3070, $1.3050/30, $1.3010/00

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3265  

USD/JPY Y77.00 

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0575, $1.0550, $1.0525, $1.0465

EUR/CHF Chf1.2025, Chf1.2100

GBP/USD $1.5735

EUR/JPY Y100.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8400

NZD/USD $0.8225

Resistance 3 : $1.5815 (Nov 16-17 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5770 (Dec 21 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (session high)

The current price: $1.5732

Support 1 : $1.5685 (support line from Jan 18)

Support 2 : $1.5640/50 (area of Jan 27-30 low)

Support 3 : $1.5600 (MA (233) H1)

Change % Change Last

Oil $98.88 +0.10 +0.10%

Gold $1,727.90 -3.10 -0.18%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,793 -48.17 -0.54%

Hang Seng 20,230 -271.88 -1.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,273 -15.63 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,285 -34.08 -1.47%

CAC 40 3,363 +50.75 +1.53%

DAX 6,540 +118.00 +1.84%

Dow 12,653.72 -6.74 -0.05%

Nasdaq 2,811.94 -4.61 -0.16%

S&P 500 1,313.02 -3.31 -0.25%

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -33 -31

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December 2

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December +0.3% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December +3.5% +3.6%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y December -0.3% -1.4%

07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December 0.81

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted December -0.9% +0.9%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y December +0.8% +0.9%

07:45 France Consumer spending December -0.1% +0.3%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January -22 -8

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.8% 6.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln December 1.0 1.2

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate December 10.3% 10.4%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) November 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index December +3.8% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m December +0.2% +0.1%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y November -3.4% -3.2%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index January 62.5 63.2

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence January 64.5 68.4