CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-03-2013

The euro fell sharply against the dollar, dropping below the level at the time of $ 1.30, which was the first time in two months after a report published today showed that activity in the manufacturing sector continued to decline, while the unemployment rate has reached a record high. Note that the EU statistical agency Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate in the euro area in January was 11.9%. This is the highest value for the 17 countries in the currency bloc to start keeping statistics in 1995. Value is higher than the January December, which, after an upward revision was 11.8%. Meanwhile, according to preliminary data, Eurostat, annual inflation in the euro area in February was 1.8% versus 2.0% in January. This is the lowest level since August 2010. Inflation is currently below the target level of the European Central Bank, which is just below 2.0%. In addition, note that the single currency is now on his way to his fourth consecutive weekly decline against the dollar, which is the length of the strip loss since June.

The dollar index rose to its highest level since August, as the inability of the U.S. government to avoid automatic budget cuts, known as sequestration, encouraged investors to look for safer assets.

However, the euro to recover most of its losses against the dollar amid comments of U.S. President Obama. Obama said that until recently, tried to prevent the suspension of the government, as evidenced by his willingness to accept a program to reduce budget spending billions of dollars, which automatically goes into effect today, even though he did his best to prevent automatic spending cuts to save jobs place and avoid the negative effect on the economic recovery. Obama said that it was rebuffed congressional Republicans agree on a balanced budget by raising taxes on further spending cuts to avoid automatic sequestration. Obama also warned that the impact of automatic cuts would have a negative impact felt by ordinary citizens, and that will force Republicans to change their point of view.

The pound fell substantially after the data presented Markit, showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing of Great Britain in February fell to 47.9, below the key 50 level that separates growth territory from the territory of contraction. Economists had expected a slight improvement to 51.0. Activity in the UK manufacturing sector declined in February, as the decreased amount of new foreign and domestic orders, and the company reduced staff at the fastest pace in more than three years. This renewed expectations that the Bank of England may resume quantitative easing program in one form or another, at its meeting on monetary policy, which will be held on Thursday.

European (SXXP) stocks declined, following nine months of gains for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as measures of manufacturing in the U.K. and China dropped, while a report showed euro-area unemployment has climbed to a record.

The Stoxx 600 retreated 0.3 percent to 289.02 at the close in London, paring an earlier slide of as much as 1.1 percent.

China’s manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed last month. The country’s official purchasing managers’ index slipped to 50.1 in February from 50.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. The reading compared with the 50.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists. A number above 50 means that activity increased.

European stocks pared their decline after the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index increased to 54.2 last month from 53.1 a month earlier. Economists had projected the gauge would decline to 52.5, according to the median forecast.

National benchmark indexes dropped in 11 of the 18 western- European markets.

FTSE 100 6,378.6 +17.79 +0.28% CAC 40 3,699.91 -23.09 -0.62% DAX 7,708.16 -33.54 -0.43%

Rio Tinto retreated 2.8 percent to 3,442 pence as a gauge of mining companies posted the largest decline of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

Kazakhmys Plc (KAZ) slumped 4.7 percent to 590 pence. Liberum Capital Ltd. downgraded Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer to hold from buy, citing higher unit costs at its businesses.

Glencore International Plc (GLEN) dropped 2.7 percent to 377 pence. The largest publicly traded commodities supplier said it will miss its March 15 deadline to complete the $33 billion takeover of Xstrata Plc. Glencore said that it needs approval from China before it can conclude the deal. Xstrata slid 3.1 percent to 1,127 pence.

Belgacom plunged 5.6 percent to 20.21 euros after Belgium’s largest phone company forecast earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 1.69 billion euros ($2.2 billion) to 1.73 billion euros for 2013. The average analyst estimate had predicted Ebitda of 1.75 billion euros this year.

Vopak tumbled 11 percent to 48.90 euros, falling the most since November 2008. The world’s largest oil and chemical storage company reported an 8.5 percent drop in full-year operating profit to 536 million euros.

Oil prices fell markedly today, while leaving to the lowest level since the beginning of this year, helped by the presented data that showed that the official purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing in China for February fell to 50.1 from 50.4 in January . Note that the February PMI was below the average forecast at 50.5. The cooling of the new wave may raise concerns about the growth momentum of the world's second-largest economy, after she began to add turnover in the 4th quarter of last year. In addition, the pressure on prices exerted fear of coming sequestration. Therefore, from now on take effect the planned reduction in government spending, the amount of which for the current year is $ 85 billion today, U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with congressional leaders and if the solution is not found, he would sign a decree to reduce costs.

Also note that the negative impact on the bidding data for the UK. Note that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing of Great Britain in February fell to 47.9, below the key 50 level that separates growth territory from the territory of contraction. Economists had expected a slight improvement to 51.0. Activity in the UK manufacturing sector declined in February, as the decreased amount of new foreign and domestic orders, and the company reduced staff at the fastest pace in more than three years.

April futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 90.74 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

April futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 69 cents and is now $ 110.27 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

After a sharp decline in the first half of the day, gold prices rose sharply, setting all new session high. However, the achieved positions of precious metal and could not be fixed, down to an open day. Economists say that this dynamic trading was due to the fact that the attention of many investors was focused for the coming sequestration.

Note also that the spot price of gold is now at $ 1577, helped by the fall of the euro, which has now reached a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar.

We also add that the appetite for gold is gradually reduced, as confirmed by the data, which show that the gold in the ETFs snizhayutsya steadily.

Note that the stocks in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to a seven-month low while still achieving the level of 1,254.49 tons, and fixed with the 8th-session decline in a row.

March futures price of gold on COMEX today dropped, and now stands at 1576.30 dollars per ounce.

Construction spending in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a significant decrease in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The report said construction spending fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $883.3 billion in January from the revised December estimate of $902.6 billion.

The sharp drop in construction spending came as a surprise to economists, who had expected spending to increase by 0.6 percent.

U.S. stock-index futures declined on spending cuts and manufacturing slowed in China, the euro area and USA.

Global Stocks:

Personal income in the U.S. fell by more than anticipated in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday, although the report also showed that personal spending rose in line with estimates.

The report said personal income tumbled by 3.6 percent in January after surging up by 2.6 percent in December. Economists had been expecting income to pull back by about 2.1 percent.

At the same time, the Commerce Department said personal spending edged up by 0.2 percent in January after inching up by 0.1 percent in December. The increase in spending matched economists' expectations.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3245

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.30, Y92.50, Y92.70, Y93.00

GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5250, $1.5255, $1.5285

EUR/GBP stg0.8680

EUR/CHF Chf1.2250

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0230, $1.0275, $1.0300, $1.0350

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3160/65, $1.3130/40, $1.3120/25, $1.3100/05, $1.3050/55

Bids $1.2980/70, $1.2950

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5100, $1.5080

Bids $1.5010/00,  $1.4980, $1.4965/60, $1.4950

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0315/20, $1.0290/00, $1.0280, $1.0260, $1.0240/45

Bids  $1.0185/80, $1.0175, $1.0150, $1.0100, $1.0050

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8720/25, stg0.8695/700, stg0.8680/85

Bids stg0.8600, stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50, stg0.8520, stg0.8505/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y122.50, Y122.00, Y121.75/80, Y121.50

Bids Y120.50, Y120.00, Y119.50, Y119.25/20

USD/JPY

Offers Y94.20/30, Y94.00, Y93.80, Y93.40/50

Bids Y92.60, Y92.30, Y92.00, Y91.80/75

Unemployment rate in Eurozone rose to a new record high in January, the latest figures from Eurostat showed Friday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 11.9 percent in January from an upwardly revised 11.8 percent in December. Economists had forecast the rate to rise to 11.8 percent from December's originally estimated 11.7 percent rate.

The jobless rate in EU 27 rose to 10.8 percent from 10.7 percent in December.

Available data suggests that the highest unemployment rate was in Greece with 27 percent in November. Greece was followed by Spain and Portugal.

Spain had an unemployment rate of 26.2 percent in January, while Portugal reported an unemployment rate of 17.6 percent.

The lowest unemployment rate was recorded in Austria, followed by Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

European stocks declined, following nine months of gains for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as measures of manufacturing in the U.K. and China dropped.

China’s manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed last month. The official purchasing managers’ index slipped to 50.1 in February from 50.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. The reading compared with the 50.5 median estimate in a survey of 31 economists. A number above 50 means that activity increased.

A separate release showed that a measure of manufacturing in the U.K. unexpectedly dropped last month. The PMI retreated to 47.9 from a revised 50.5 in January.

Belgacom SA sank to the lowest price since its initial public offering in 2004 after its forecast for 2013 missed projections.

Rio Tinto Group slid 2.6 percent after a person close to the matter said it plans to sell its Canadian iron-ore operations.

Thales SA jumped the most in 13 years after posting full-year profit that beat analysts’ projections.

FTSE 100 6,338.04 -22.77 -0.36%

CAC 40 3,684.52 -38.48 -1.03%

DAX 7,682.99 -58.71 -0.76%

Eurozone's manufacturing sector contracted at a slightly weaker pace than estimated earlier in February, final data released by Markit Economics showed Friday.

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 47.9 in February, which was unchanged from January's 11-month high. The latest reading was slightly higher than 47.8 seen in the preliminary estimates. A PMI stayed below the no-change 50 mark - which separated growth from contraction -for the nineteenth successive month.

The modest easing of decline in activity partly reflects the stabilization of the German manufacturing sector and a an increase in activity in Ireland, which stayed at the top of the PMI league. However, all other member countries recorded contraction, with Italy, France, Spain and Greece recorded marked downturns.

Both production and new orders in the euro area manufacturing sector contracted further in February, although the rates of decline were less marked than signaled by the earlier flash estimates.

Employment fell for the thirteenth successive month, albeit at a slightly weaker pace than in the prior month. Input costs declined for the first time in six months, while factory gate prices were broadly unchanged.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3245

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.30, Y92.50, Y92.70

GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5250, $1.5255, $1.5285

EUR/GBP stg0.8680

EUR/CHF Chf1.2250

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0230, $1.0275, $1.0300, $1.0350

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest weekly advance in two months. Japanese shares rallied after a drop in consumer prices stoked speculation the Bank of Japan will add to monetary easing to beat deflation.

Nikkei 225 11,606.38 +47.02 +0.41%

Hang Seng 22,880.22 -140.05 -0.61%

S&P/ASX 200 5,086.13 -17.95 -0.35%

Shanghai Composite 2,359.51 -6.09 -0.26%

Mitsubishi Estate Co. jumped 6.1 percent, pacing gains among Japanese developers.

Sony Corp., the maker of Bravia televisions and PlayStation game consoles, rose 3.9 percent after selling a building in Tokyo for 111.1 billion yen ($1.2 billion).

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. dropped 3.1 percent in Singapore after the world’s second-largest palm-oil producer reported fourth-quarter profit declined 93 percent.

The euro fell against the dollar, registering with the first monthly decline since July, which was associated with the Italian political disputes about the formation of the government, as well as against decrease in the inflation rate in the euro area, which "opens the door" to stimulate the part of the central bank.

The euro also weakened against most other major currencies, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled that the ECB is not going to hold tighter monetary policy in the near future.

Note that the strengthening of the dollar did not prevent even the GDP data. A report published by the Ministry of Commerce, showing that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 0.1 percent drop, which was originally reported. Economists had expected a more substantial revision to the consensus forecast of growth of 0.5 percent.

The pound was little changed in the course of trading, as the presented data showed that consumer confidence index from Gfk was -26 in February, unchanged from the previous month. Also note that this value is fully in line with economists' forecasts.

New Zealand's dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that business confidence rose this month to the level of 39.4, compared with 22.7 in the previous month.

The Canadian dollar fell for the first time in three days against the dollar, as data showed that the country's balance of payments deficit fell less than forecast, adding speculation that report will show that the economy contracted in December.

Note that the seasonally adjusted deficit of the balance of payments has decreased in the last quarter to the level of 17.26 billion Canadian dollars, while the data for the previous quarter, revised up to 1.04 billion Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Statistics reported that the decline was the highest since Q3 2011. Also, the data showed that for the full year deficit of 66.94 billion Canadian dollars, the highest level since 2010.

Yen remains under pressure after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated to head the Central Bank Harika Kuroda, currently headed by the Asian Development Bank. In an interview on February 11, Kuroda said he was in favor of additional incentive programs this year, and noted that the central bank has "significant opportunities for this."

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest jump in five months, after U.S. economic data bolstered confidence in the global recovery and as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated a new central bank governor.

Nikkei 225 11,559.36 +305.39 +2.71%

Hang Seng 23,020.27 +443.26 +1.96%

S&P/ASX 200 5,104.08 +67.49 +1.34%

Shanghai Composite 2,365.59 +52.37 +2.26%

Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted its longest monthly winning streak since 2006 amid speculation Abe’s nominee, Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, will push for more monetary stimulus.

In Sydney, James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that gets 67 percent of sales from the U.S., gained 3.2 percent.

New World Development Co., a Hong Kong builder controlled by billionaire Cheng Yu-tung, rose 3.6 percent after posting earnings that beat estimates.

European (SXXP) stocks climbed, with the benchmark index rising for a ninth straight month, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled they would maintain monetary support.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1 percent to 289.94 at the close of trading, extending its advance this month to 1 percent, for its longest monthly winning streak since 1997.

A Labor Department report showed that fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 344,000 in the week ended Feb. 23, compared with the median forecast of economists that called for 361,000.

The U.S. economy managed to barely expand in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product grew at a 0.1 percent annual rate, up from a previously estimated 0.1 percent drop, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a 0.5 percent gain.

National benchmark indexes rose in all of the 18 western- European markets except Portugal today.

FTSE 100 6,360.81 +34.93 +0.55% CAC 40 3,723 +31.51 +0.85% DAX 7,741.7 +65.87 +0.86%

Bayer increased 2.7 percent to 75.86 euros after saying sales will rise to about 41 billion euros ($53.9 billion) this year. Fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and special items increased 18 percent to 1.83 billion euros from 1.54 billion euros a year earlier, in line with analysts’ estimates.

Telefonica (TEF) added 20 cents to 10 euros after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates as sales growth in Latin America helped to offset revenue declines in its domestic market. Operating income before depreciation and amortization fell 8.6 percent to 5.45 billion euros, compared with projections for 5.44 billion euros.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) gained 0.9 percent to 731.4 pence. Europe’s largest bank by market value may say pretax profit in 2012 rose 7.4 percent to $23.5 billion when it reports earnings on March 4.

Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) may say pretax profit last year climbed to $7.12 billion from $6.78 billion, according to the median estimate of analysts. The stock increased 1.2 percent to 1,796 pence.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) rallied 7.9 percent to 239.2 pence, its highest price since July 26, 2011. Europe’s third-largest carrier had a full-year operating loss of 23 million euros, excluding one-time items, compared with a 485 million-euro profit a year earlier. Analysts had expected an 88 million-euro loss.

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average closer to its record, as government reports showed the economy expanded at the end of 2012 and jobless claims declined more than estimated last week.

Gross domestic product grew at a 0.1 percent annual rate, up from a previously estimated 0.1 percent drop, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed. Economists predicted a 0.5 percent gain. Jobless claims fell to 344,000 in the week ended Feb. 23. The median forecast called for 360,000 applications. Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in February at the fastest pace in almost a year.

The International Monetary Fund will lower its growth forecast for the U.S., where $85 billion in spending cuts are due to begin tomorrow, an IMF spokesman said.

Warren Buffett once said that shunning dividends in his early years running Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) allowed him to refocus the company on better businesses, much as a person would overcome “a misspent youth.” The 82-year-old billionaire is now focused on his legacy as he prepares the company he’s overseen for almost five decades for new management. Using his annual letter tomorrow to outline a dividend strategy could help explain to shareholders how the company’s next leaders should approach the challenge of allocating profits.

Most components of DOW index closed in plus (18 of 30). Shares of Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +2.15%) advanced more than other components. Shares of Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (UNH, -0.64%) fell more than other components

All sectors of the S&P closed in plus. Most growts showed sector of consumer goods (+0.5%) and conglomerates  (+0.5%).

On result of yesterdays session:

Dow -21.12 14,054.25 -0.15%

Nasdaq -2.07 3,160.19 -0.07%

S&P -1.33 1,514.66 -0.09%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI February 50.4 50.5 50.1

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 52.3 52.3 50.4

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y February -6.4% -7.2%

The euro was poised for its longest stretch of weekly declines since June on prospects for lower interest rates in the region with data today forecast to confirm a manufacturing contraction worsened. An index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing in the 17-nation euro bloc fell to 47.8 in February, from 47.9 in January, London-based Markit Economics is forecast to say in a final reading, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Levels below 50 indicate contraction.

Europe’s common currency fell in February, snapping six months of gains, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said this week the bank is “far” from exiting stimulus measures. Draghi signaled at an event in Munich on Feb. 27 that the central bank has no intention of tightening monetary policy anytime soon, with inflation projected to “significantly” undershoot its 2 percent target next year.

The region’s inflation slowed in February, a report today is forecast to show, opening the door for more easing. The euro-area inflation rate slowed for a second month to 1.9 percent in February, according to a separate Bloomberg poll of analysts before today’s report. of analysts before today’s report. The ECB will probably maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.75 percent next week, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The dollar and yen were set for weekly advances against most major peers amid concern automatic spending cuts in the U.S. will damp global growth, boosting demand for refuge assets.

The Australian dollar dipped briefly after two indexes of Chinese manufacturing indicated a slower-than-expected pace of expansion. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.1 in February, the lowest since September, official data showed. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 50.5. A separate gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to a four-month low of 50.4 from 52.3. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose, departing from the previous day's low.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5180.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y92.45-75.

Change % Change Last

Oil $91.95 -0.10 -0.11%

Gold $1,577.50 -0.60 -0.04%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,559.36 +305.39 +2.71%

Hang Seng 23,020.27 +443.26 +1.96%

S&P/ASX 200 5,104.08 +67.49 +1.34%

Shanghai Composite 2,365.59 +52.37 +2.26%

CAC 40 3,723 +31.51 +0.85%

DAX 7,741.7 +65.87 +0.86%

Dow -21.12 14,054.25 -0.15%

Nasdaq -2.07 3,160.19 -0.07%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3055 -0,64%

GBP/USD $1,5161 +0,03%

USD/CHF Chf0,9365 +0,76%

USD/JPY Y92,55 +0,35%

EUR/JPY Y120,83 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y140,32 +0,37%

AUD/USD $1,0214 -0,19%

NZD/USD $0,8248 -0,33%

USD/CAD C$1,0305 +0,73%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI February 50.4 50.5

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 52.3 52.3

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y February -6.4%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted January -1.7% +1.1%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y January -4.7% -1.7%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index February +0.5% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y February 0.0% -0.2%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI February 52.5 52.2

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 43.6 43.6

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 50.1 50.1

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 47.8 47.8

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing February 50.8 51.0

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln January 1.7 1.1

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals January 55.8 56.5

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) February +2.0% +2.0%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate January 11.7% 11.8%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m January 0.0% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y January +1.4% +1.3%

13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m January +2.6% -1.9%

13:30 U.S. Personal spending January +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) December +0.3% -0.1%

14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 55.2 55.2

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) February 76.3 76.3

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m January +0.9% +0.5%

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing February 53.1 52.5