CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-02-2013

The euro rose to a seven-week low against the dollar, as investors increased their bets that the European Central Bank will intervene in the situation to limit losses from so-called "peripheral bonds." Note also that the yield on the bond markets of Italy and Spain nearly grown, and the Italian banking stocks suffered heavy losses. As follows from the recent comments, a former prime country Berlusconi ruled out an alliance with the center-left Party of Monti.

The yen rose against all major currencies, as many investors have begun to use this currency as a safe-haven.

The dollar index fluctuated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy will continue to recover in 2013, but the situation on the labor market and the economy as a whole is weak, and therefore, further mitigation is necessary. Bernanke's comments indicate that he supports an extension of the Fed's bond purchases by 85 billion dollars. Note also that Bernanke did not mention about the difference in the views of the commission members FOMC, but touched all the issues that are of concern. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called on the White House and Congress to make adjustments and replace sharp automatic spending cuts, known as sequestration. In the view of the Fed automatic spending cuts, which are expected to come into force on Friday, in order to reduce the deficit can affect the pace of economic recovery. Bernanke believes that the gradual reduction of costs in the short term will not remove completely fiscal risks. However, Bernanke believes in the long-term effect will be more significant.

Swiss franc rose to a six-week high against the euro on speculation that Italy will need a second vote after the inconclusive election results, which immediately increased the demand for the relative safety of the franc.

European stocks declined as Italy’s inconclusive parliamentary election renewed concern that the Mediterranean nation will dilute its austerity program and the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will deepen.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 1.3 percent to 284.60 at the close of trading, the biggest loss since Feb. 21.

Confidence among U.S. consumers rebounded more than forecast in February from its weakest level since November 2011. The Conference Board’s index increased to 69.6 from a revised 58.4 in January. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists called for a gain to 62.

National benchmark indexes dropped in all 18 western European markets, except Ireland and Denmark.

FTSE 100 6,270.44 -84.93 -1.34% CAC 40 3,621.92 -99.41 -2.67% DAX 7,597.11 -176.08 -2.27%

Telecom Italia plunged 7.3 percent to 55 euro cents, the lowest price since August 1997.

SEB SA dropped 3.5 percent to 58.94 euros after reporting full-year net income of 194.2 million euros ($254 million), missing the average analyst estimate for 206.6 million euros.

BASF lost 4.5 percent to 71.66 euros, the sharpest decrease since April. Earnings before interest, tax and one-time items increased 18 percent to 1.8 billion euros in the fourth quarter, the company said today. That missed the median analyst estimate of 1.83 billion euros.

William Demant Holding A/S (WDH), a maker of hearing aids, dropped 5.6 percent to 454.90 kroner, its largest retreat since Aug. 16. The Smorum, Denmark-based company said it expects 2013 Ebit to exceed last year’s 1.65 billion ($290 million) kroner. Analysts had estimated profit of 1.99 billion kroner.

Pandora A/S added 3.8 percent to 149 kroner. The Nordic region’s biggest jewelry maker announced a plan to buy back 700 million kroner of shares this year, equal to 3.6 percent of its current market value.

The cost of oil has decreased, while leaving to the $ 113 per barrel, and reached the one-month low, as the inconclusive results of Italian elections have revived concerns among investors about the instability in the euro zone and weak growth in demand for fuel. Note that the results confirmed the fears that Italian politicians are not able to form a government that would be strong enough to carry out effective reforms that immediately rekindled memories of the financial crisis, which kept the eurozone on the brink of collapse in 2011.

Economists note that the uncertainty in Rome, along with problems in the United States, as well as weak manufacturing data from China, concerns about the global economic outlook, which may ultimately contribute to the growth of oil prices this year.

In addition, investor attention is also focused on the negotiations between the major powers and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. Note that world powers will have to offer Iran facilitating the restrictive sanctions if the country agrees to halt its nuclear projects. Few believe that the meeting will provide an immediate breakthrough, however, the reduction of tension can affect the price of oil.

In addition, note that the prices could come under even more pressure, as presented data tomorrow may show that crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose again, that will be the sixth increase in a row.

April futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 92.52 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

April futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 23 cents and is now $ 113.15 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Prices of gold futures rose, registering with the second session gain in a row, and rising above the level of $ 1600 per troy ounce, which was due to comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress.

Bernanke said the U.S. economy will continue to recover in 2013, but the situation on the labor market and the economy as a whole is weak, and therefore, further mitigation is necessary.

Bernanke's comments indicate that he supports an extension of the Fed's bond purchases by 85 billion dollars. Note that the markets have been concerned that the Fed would curtail program of bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, after in January in the minutes of the FOMC meeting was disquieting committee members regarding the continuation of programs and proposals to reduce the purchase or minimize the program to the end of 2013 year.

We also add that in his speech Bernanke did not mention about the difference of opinion of the commission members FOMC, but touched all the issues that are of concern. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called on the White House and Congress to make adjustments and replace sharp automatic spending cuts, known as sequestration. In the view of the Fed automatic spending cuts, which are expected to come into force on Friday, in order to reduce the deficit can affect the pace of economic recovery. He also said that the sequestration will have a "significant" near the negative impact on economic growth, given the slow pace of recovery.

We also add that support gold prices have presented today data on new home sales in the U.S., which showed a significant recovery in January. Sales volume was significantly higher than the estimates of economists. The Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes rose by 15.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 437,000 up in January from a revised 378,000 in December. Economists had expected new home sales will show a modest increase at an annual rate of 381 000 369 000, which was originally reported in the previous month.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today has grown, and now stands at 1606.40 dollars per ounce.

New home sales in the U.S. showed a substantial rebound in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, with sales coming in well above economist estimates.

The Commerce Department said new home sales surged up by 15.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000 in January from the revised December rate of 378,000.

Economists had been expecting new home sales to show a more modest increase to an annual rate of 381,000 from the 369,000 originally reported for the previous month.

Home prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas rose by slightly more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by Standard & Poor's on Tuesday.

The report showed that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent in December following a 0.7 percent increase in November. Economists had been expecting the index to increase by about 0.8 percent.

Compared to the same month a year ago, the index rose by 6.8 percent in December, coming in line with economist estimates.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-City Composite Home Price Index crept up by 0.2 percent in December after edging down by 0.1 percent in November.

A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that home prices rose by 0.6 percent in December following a revised 0.4 percent increase in November.

U.S. stock futures climbed after better-than-expected earnings results from retailers Home Depot (HD).

Investors are awaiting on testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke before the Senate Banking Committee. Mr. Bernanke is expected to face tough questions about asset purchases and the Fed's ability to manage the withdrawal from quantitative easing. The presumption ahead of his testimony is that he will walk a dovish line that is supportive for equity prices.

Global Stocks:

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3200, 1.3225, $1.330

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.50, Y93.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9200

EUR/CHF Chf1.2325

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0335, $1.0350, $1.0380, $1.0390

08:15 Switzerland Employment Level Quarter IV 4.12 4.11 4.12

08:15 Switzerland Full time employment level Quarter IV 2.83 2.82

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Bean Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance February 17 16 8

The euro strengthened from a seven- week low against the dollar as Italian and Spanish bonds trimmed losses on easing concern that inconclusive elections in Italy will deepen Europe’s debt crisis.

The euro advanced versus 12 of its 16 major counterparts as investors bet the European Central Bank will step in to limit any losses in so-called peripheral bonds following Governor Mario Draghi’s pledge in July to safeguard the currency union.

British pound offset some losses against the dollar in the correction after aggressive sales dropped him yesterday to a minimum 1.5074. Pound also enjoys the status of safe haven amid the political uncertainty prevailing in Italy after the election. Is today a representative of the Bank of England Bean said he expects to accelerate growth of the national economy in 2013-14, and expressed readiness to take additional measures QE according to forecasts. His colleague, McCafferty said that the collapse of the eurozone risks reduced but persist that once again confirmed the elections in Italy. Later pound came under pressure after the Bank of England statement predstavlitelya Tucker that "real exchange rate should be lower."

The focus of investors is today's performance of the Fed in Congress. It will be a semi-annual report of Ben Bernanke before the Committee on Banking Senate, scheduled for 15:00 GMT. Experts say that this will be the first update since the launch speech Fed QE program for an indefinite period, and almost no doubt that Congress will take an interest to the question of how and when the Fed intends to roll this program. In addition to updated forecasts for the economy (probably a little more optimistic they will), the market will be waiting for any further clarification on QE deadlines and specific guidelines that the Central Bank can use for this.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.3017, and then rose to $ 1.3119

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.5127 - $ 1.5217

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair updated intraday low Y91.39, and then rose to Y91.87

At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will leave the index of housing prices in 20 cities S & P / Case-Shiller composite index and a nationwide home prices S & P / CaseShiller for December will be released at 15:00 GMT indicator of consumer confidence for February, the volume of sales in the primary market for January, and at 21:30 GMT will be published data on changes in the volume of crude oil, according to API. At 15:00 GMT a speech Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will publish data on the trade balance and the trade balance for January. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will issue a change in retail sales for January.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3150, $1.3120/25

Bids $1.3060/50, $1.3020/00, $1.2980/70, $1.2950

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5280, $1.5250/60, $1.5230/35, $1.5220

Bids $1.5105/095, $1.5070, $1.5050, $1.5010/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0375/80, $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0290/95

Bids $1.0240/35, $1.0215, $1.0210/00, $1.0150

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8720/25, stg0.8695/700, stg0.8665/70

Bids stg0.8600, stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50, stg0.8520, stg0.8505/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y122.50, Y122.00, Y121.50

Bids Y120.05/00, Y119.85/80, Y119.50/40, Y119.10/00, Y118.80/75, Y118.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y93.50, Y93.00, Y92.70/75, Y92.40

Bids Y91.60, Y91.20, Y91.05/00, Y90.80/75

European stocks declined as Italy’s inconclusive parliamentary election renewed concern that the Mediterranean nation will dilute its austerity program and the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will deepen.

Election results in Rome showed pre-election favorite Pier Luigi Bersani won the lower house by less than a half a point. Silvio Berlusconi, the former premier who has vowed to reverse austerity measures, won a blocking minority in the Senate. An Italian government requires a majority in both houses.

The group headed by Beppo Grillo, who also opposes crisis- fighting measures, got 25 percent support. Berlusconi and Grillo scored about 55 percent of the popular vote. The result may lead President Giorgio Napolitano to install an interim government to write a new election law as the prelude to another vote.

Italian 10-year bond yields climbed 26 basis points, or 0.26 percentage point, to 4.75 percent. That is the yield’s biggest advance since Dec. 10.

Italian stocks were the top 10 decliners on the Stoxx 600 index as UniCredit SpA, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Banco Popolare SC and Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA all sank more than 7 percent.

Telecom Italia plunged 5.7 percent to 55.8 euro cents, the lowest price since August 1997. Credit-default swaps insuring investors against a default by the Milan-based company climbed 29 basis points to 358, the highest in five months and the biggest same-day move since Jan. 14.

SEB dropped 3.5 percent to 58.94 euros after saying full- year net income was 194.2 million euros ($254 million) last year, missing the average analyst estimate for 206.6 million euros.

BASF lost 1.92 euros to 73.09 euros. Earnings before interest, tax and one-time items increased 18 percent to 1.8 billion euros in the fourth quarter, the company said today. That missed the median analyst estimate of 1.83 billion euros.

FTSE 100 6,268.13 -87.24 -1.37%

CAC 40 3,640.47 -80.86 -2.17%

EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3225, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y92.50, Y93.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9200

EUR/CHF Chf1.2325

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0335, $1.0350, $1.0380, $1.0390

Italy Sold E8.75bln 6-month BOT at average yield 1.237% (0.731%), bid-to-cover 1.44 times (1.65)

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised to slide for the first time in three days, on concern Italy’s elections may reignite Europe’s debt crisis. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index erased its gains this year on a report Beijing may introduce more property curbs.

Nikkei 225 11,398.81 -263.71 -2.26%

Hang Seng 22,519.69 -300.39 -1.32%

S&P/ASX 200 5,003.57 -52.20 -1.03%

Shanghai Composite 2,293.34 -32.48 -1.40%

Sony Corp., a Japanese consumer electronics maker that gets a fifth of its revenue in Europe, lost 3.7 percent.

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. sank 4.8 percent in Hong Kong.

Hanwha Life Insurance Co. plunged 9.8 percent in Seoul after Hanwha Chemical Corp. sold its shares.

Global Logistic Properties Ltd. slumped 6.9 percent in Singapore after a sovereign wealth fund in the city-state said it’s selling a stake in the biggest owner of industrial properties in Japan.

The euro fell sharply against the dollar, losing all previously won positions, after the first results of the exit polls in Italy pointed to the center-left coalition victory Bersani. Now, the former Prime Minister Berlusconi is, according to the updated surveys, gaining 32% of the vote against Bersani, whose 28.7%. However, the last word will be for B. Grillo, representing 25% of the voters. Coalition Grillo and Bersani gaining around 53%, which is enough to win.

The yen fell to the weakest level since May 2010 against the dollar on speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will choose as the next head of the Bank of Japan advocate aggressive easing of monetary policy.

The pound fell to its lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar after the international rating agency Moody's Investors Service has downgraded by one notch, from Aaa to "Aa1", the UK government bond rating. The rating outlook - "stable." The Agency, in particular, pointed to the risks to the financial situation of the country due to the economic slowdown. Moody's expects the UK government debt in the coming years, as the rise of the British economy will be slow and uncertain, at least until 2016. Accordingly, the UK will continue to adhere to measures to reduce public spending. In January of approved applications for mortgages BBA in Britain fell by 33.6 thousand to 32.3 thousand vs. 34.2 thousand

The Canadian dollar was down against the U.S. dollar on speculation the governor of the Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said that economic growth slowed more than expected.

00:01 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 52.3 52.2 50.4

The yen fell against the dollar as traders sold the currency near this month’s high on speculation the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further to boost growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to nominate Haruhiko Kuroda for the BOJ governor position, and Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso for deputy roles, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions. In a Feb. 11 interview, Kuroda said he favors additional stimulus this year, and the central bank has “really substantial room for monetary easing.” He also said that the global standard for achieving inflation targets was a two-year time horizon. When the BOJ set a 2 percent inflation target without a deadline in January, policy makers said the central bank would start open-ended asset purchases starting in 2014.

The euro fell against the pound after a spokesman for Italy’s Democratic Party candidate Pier Luigi Bersani said projections of the nation’s election results “show a risk of ungovernability.” Stefano Fassina, the economic policy spokesman was speaking yesterday on Italy’s La7 television. Forecasts by state broadcaster RAI showed Bersani winning the lower chamber and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi with a blocking minority in the Senate.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3035-90.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5220.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y91.85-Y92.75.

Change % Change Last

Oil $92.86 -0.25 -0.27%

Gold $1,595.70 +9.10 +0.57%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,662.52 +276.58 +2.43%

S&P/ASX 200 5,055.77 +37.62 +0.75%

Shanghai Composite 2,325.82 +11.66 +0.50%

CAC 40 3,721.33 +15.05 +0.41%

DAX 7,773.19 +111.28 +1.45%

Dow -216.56 13,784.01 -1.55%

Nasdaq -45.57 3,116.25 -1.44%

S&P -27.75 1,487.85 -1.83%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3062 -0,96%

GBP/USD $1,5161 -0,55%

USD/CHF Chf0,9321 +0,28%

USD/JPY Y91,80 -1,78%

EUR/JPY Y119,92 -2,74%

GBP/JPY Y149,23 +4,55%

AUD/USD $1,0255 -0,71%

NZD/USD $0,8326 -0,64%

USD/CAD C$1,0260 +0,54%

02:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter I +2.3%

08:15 Switzerland Employment Level Quarter IV 4.12 4.11

08:15 Switzerland Full time employment level Quarter IV 2.83

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Bean Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance February 17 16

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m December +0.6% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y December +5.6%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y December +5.5% +6.6%

15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index February -12 -4

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence February 58.6 60.8

15:00 U.S. New Home Sales January 369 381

15:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies February

18:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories +3.0

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln January 486 110