CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-02-2013

European shares rose for the first week in four as better-than-expected company earnings and measures of German confidence outweighed concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its asset-purchase program.

In Germany, investor confidence increased to the highest level in almost three years in February. The index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to 48.2 from 31.5 in January, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research said this week. That exceeded the median estimate of economists in a survey calling for an increase to 35.

Separately, the Ifo institute’s business climate index for Europe’s biggest economy, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 107.4 in February from a revised 104.3 in January. The median of 38 forecasts in a survey had called for an increase to 104.9. The latest reading was the highest since April.

Still, the euro-area economy will shrink for a second year in 2013, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 10 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 0.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 added 1.3 percent. Germany’s DAX gained 0.9 percent.

Lafarge advanced 7.7 percent. The world’s biggest cement maker said it’ll meet most of a cost-cutting goal one year early after fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates on rising sales in Asia and Latin America. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose to 856 million euros from 798 million euros a year earlier, the Paris-based company said. Analysts had expected 821.6 million euros.

Natixis rallied 18 percent. The investment-bank unit of France’s second-largest lender by branches said it will make a payment to shareholders after selling back stakes in its parent’s banking networks. The distribution amounts to 65 cents a share, and comes on top of a proposed dividend of 10 cents a share for 2012.

Royal KPN NV plunged 13 percent for the second-worst performance on the Stoxx 600 this week. America Movil SAB, the mobile-phone carrier controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim, will take part in a 3 billion-euro KPN share sale, while declining to participate in a 1 billion-euro sale of so-called hybrid instruments.

RSA Insurance Group Plc tumbled 11 percent after announcing a dividend cut. The U.K.’s biggest non-life insurer by market value lowered its payout by 33 percent as its 2012 underwriting profit was eroded by claims related to wet weather in the U.K. and earthquakes in Italy.

West Texas Intermediate oil fluctuated in New York as German business confidence climbed to a 10-month high and U.S. crude inventories rose to the highest level since July.

Futures gained as much as 0.7 percent as the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index increased, signaling that Europe’s largest economy is gathering strength. Oil tumbled $4.26 a barrel in the past two days. The drop accelerated yesterday after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude supplies rose 4.14 million barrels last week to 376.4 million. The selloff brings prices in line with underlying fundamentals, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of commodities research in New York, said in a report.

Ifo’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 107.4 from 104.3 in January. Economists predicted an increase to 104.9, according to the median of 38 forecasts in a survey.

Crude oil for April delivery fell 12 cents to $92.72 a barrel at 11:24 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract ended at $92.84 yesterday, the lowest settlement since Dec. 31. Futures are down 3.3 percent this week.

Brent oil for April settlement climbed 26 cents to $113.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices are heading for a 3.3 percent drop this week. The volume was 19 percent lower than the 100-day average.

On Friday, the price of gold down after rising the previous day and the beginning of the trading day. On Thursday, gold rose in price after weak U.S. economic indicators that have strengthened the hope of the market to continue "quantitative easing" the Fed. Published on Thursday on the number of applications for unemployment insurance, manufacturing activity and consumer prices in the U.S. showed a slow economic recovery, giving the Fed a reason to continue to buy bonds. Leaders of the Federal Reserve is likely to insist on the continuation of the program of buying bonds, despite growing fears of Education "asset bubbles" or inflation, experts say. Award in Shanghai to prices in London rose to nearly $ 20 an ounce to less than $ 10 at the end of 2012, pointing to an increased demand in China, ranked second in the world for the consumption of gold. Stocks of the world's largest gold-exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust on Thursday fell by 8.89 tonnes to 1.290,306 tons - the minimum amount of more than five months. April futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1587.00 dollars an ounce, and then fell to 1569.30 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures rose as German business confidence jumped to a 10-month high amid better-than-anticipated corporate earnings.

Global Stocks:

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350

USD/JPY Y92.00, YY93.00, Y93.35, Y93.50, 94.00, Y94.50

GBP/USD $1.5250

EUR/GBP stg0.8700

USD/CHF Chf0.9230

Data

02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending January +1.0% -2.5%

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.1% +0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 104.2 104.9 107.4

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 108.0 108.0 110.2

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 100.5 100.8 104.6

The euro lost all previously won positions against the dollar after the European Central Bank said that the bank will pay 1.74 billion euros for the first loan LTRO on February 27 against 3.79 billion euros the previous week. Meanwhile, the ECB announced that nine banks paid the first loan LTRO 27 February to 9 banks in the previous week, and 356 bank loan payments for the 2nd operation LTRO on February 27. In addition, the European Central Bank said that the bank will pay 61.1 billion euros in the second three-year loan LTRO on February 27.

The pressure on the European currency has also forecast by the European Commission, according to which, eurozone GDP will decrease by 0.3% in 2013 and grow by 1.4% in 2014, while the budget deficit in the euro area will be 2.8% of GDP in 2013 and 2.7% in 2014. Recall that the Commission previously predicted growth of euro area GDP by 0.1% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014

The Australian dollar rose sharply against the dollar, departing from a seven-week low amid comments head RBA Stevens, who echo the statements of the last minutes of the Bank, and concluded that the monetary easing "done its job" in supporting the Australian economy. In addition, he noted that for an intervention to weaken the Australian dollar threshold is quite high and it is necessary to be sure that the currency is seriously overvalued. In addition, Stevens has signaled the possible end of a cycle of declining interest rates. At the same time, economists note that the next change in interest rates is likely to be to the downside, and not increase as the economy there are increasing signs of growth. Recall that the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 1.75 percentage points, to 3.00% in an effort to support the growth of the economy. Latest interest rate cut was in December.

Course of the New Zealand dollar rose against the dollar, which was the first time in three days, after a report showed that the amount of spending on credit cards has increased in the last month, registering with the third monthly increase in a row.

The yen traded in a narrow range, as market participants are waiting for the meeting of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Barack Obama, to be held today.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair decreased by setting the minimum at $ 1.3155

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5249, and then rose to $ 1.5315

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose Y93.50

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the consumer price index and the core consumer price index from the Bank of Canada in January. Also during this time will be published data on changes in retail sales and a change in retail sales excluding auto sales for December. At 14:00 GMT Belgium publish an index of business sentiment for February.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300/10, $1.3275/80, $1.3245/55

Bids $1.3150, $1.3130, $1.3100

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5320/25, $1.5300, $1.5370/80, $1.5350, $1.5300, $1.5280/85

Bids $1.5250/30, $1.5220/10, $1.5185/75, $1.5130

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0350

Bids $1.0280/70, $1.0250, $1.0240/35, $1.0215, $1.0210/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8700, stg0.8680/85

Bids stg0.8610/00, stg0.8580/70

EUR/JPY

Offers Y124.50, Y124.35/40, Y124.00, Y123.75/80

Bids Y122.50, Y122.00, Y121.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y94.40, Y94.20/30, Y93.95/00, Y93.75/80, Y93.45/50

Bids Y92.80/75, Y92.65/60, Y92.50

A positive impact on market participants had data on the index of current conditions, expectations, and business climate in Germany from IFO. Figure exceeded analysts' expectations.

Also according to the European Commission expected the eurozone budget deficit for 2013 will not exceed 3% of GDP, which will for the first time since 2008 Godea.

FTSE 100 6,329.15 +37.61 +0.60%

DAX 7,617.49 +33.92 +0.45%

CAC 3,668.08 +43.41 +1.22%

Shares of Air France-KLM, one of the largest airlines in Europe, rose during trading at 0.7%. The company has reduced operating loss for the 2012 to 300 million euros compared with 353 million euros a year earlier.

Value of securities of Alcatel-Lucent SA jumped 3% on the information on the appointment of a new CEO telecommunications company. CEO of Alcatel-Lucent appointed former executive Vodafone Group Plc Michel Combes. Previous Alcatel-Lucent CEO Ben Vervayen stepped down earlier this month after a three-year plan is implemented it could not return the company to a profitable level.

Paper Elan Corp. increased in price by 4.4% after the announcement of the Irish pharmaceutical company of its intention to redeem its own shares for $ 1 billion

The value of shares A.P. Moeller-Maersk A / S fell by 1.2% on the back of poor prognosis Danish transport and the oil company for the current year.

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350

USD/JPY Y92.00, YY93.00, Y93.35, Y93.50, 94.00, Y94.50

GBP/USD $1.5250

EUR/GBP stg0.8700

USD/CHF Chf0.9230

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

Asian stocks erased losses as Japanese and Australian shares rebounded amid speculation yesterday’s decline on the regional benchmark index was excessive.

Nikkei 225 11,385.94 +76.81 +0.68%

Hang Seng 22,790.63 -116.04 -0.51%

S&P/ASX 200 5,018.15 +38.05 +0.76%

Shanghai Composite 2,314.16 -11.79 -0.51%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender, rose 1.1 percent after the central bank governor said interest-rate cuts should be given time to do their work.

Tosoh Corp. jumped 4.3 percent in Tokyo on a report the chemical maker developed materials that prevent lithium ion batteries from catching fire.

Belle International Holdings Ltd. declined 5.5 percent in Hong Kong as analysts from Nomura Holdings Inc. and CCB International Securities Ltd. downgraded the shoe retailer.

The euro declined below $1.32 for the first time in six weeks as an industry report showed services and manufacturing in the region shrank at a faster pace in February than economists forecast. The euro declined versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as a composite index of factory and services output in the 17-nation currency bloc fell to 47.3 from 48.6 in January, London-based Markit Economics said. Economists forecast a reading of 49, according to the median of 22 estimates in a survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The 17-nation currency fell for a third day versus the yen on speculation the European Central Bank may have to keep borrowing costs lower for longer to help spur a recovery.

The Dollar Index fell from a five-month high as manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly contracted. Fed’s Philadelphia’s general economic index dropped to minus 12.5, the lowest reading since June, from minus 5.8 in January. Readings lower than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

The yen advanced all of its major peers as former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata and Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda were seen as the leading candidates to head the central bank, the Mainichi newspaper reported, without citing anyone. Iwata would be the most yen-bearish candidate because he advocates foreign-bond purchases, according to a note from Citigroup Inc. this week.

Asian stocks plunged, with a gauge of Chinese companies in Hong Kong erasing the year’s gains, amid concern the Federal Reserve may scale back U.S. economic stimulus and as China ordered increased property curbs.

Nikkei 225 11,309.13 -159.15 -1.39%

Hang Seng 22,906.67 -400.74 -1.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,980.09 -118.62 -2.33%

Shanghai Composite 2,325.95 -71.23 -2.97%

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. lost 2.4 percent in Hong Kong, pacing declines among Chinese developers.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, dropped 3.8 percent, the most since May, on concern that global demand will decrease if policymakers reduce stimulus.

Origin Energy Ltd. slumped 8.5 percent to A$11.33 in Sydney after Australia’s biggest electricity retailer cut its profit forecast and reported a cost increase at its A$25 billion ($26 billion) gas project.

European stocks declined the most in more than two weeks as a measure of services and manufacturing output contracted, while concern mounted that the Federal Reserve will scale back its asset-purchase program.

Euro-area services and manufacturing shrank in February more than economists had forecast. A composite index of both industries in the 17-nation currency bloc fell to 47.3 from 48.6 in January, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists had predicted a reading of 49, according to the median of 22 estimates in a survey. A reading below 50 means that activity contracted.

Several participants at the FOMC’s meeting “emphasized that the committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolves,” according to minutes released after the close of European markets yesterday.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 declined 2.3 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 1.6 percent. Germany’s DAX dropped 1.9 percent.

Safran decreased 3.1 percent to 34 euros. Europe’s second- biggest maker of aircraft engines has begun exploratory discussions with Avio, Chief Executive Officer Jean-Paul Herteman said on a conference call.

Axa SA retreated 3.1 percent to 13.27 euros as net income unexpectedly fell to 4.15 billion euros ($5.5 billion) in 2012 from 4.19 billion euros in 2011. That missed the 4.47 billion- euro average analyst estimate in a survey.

Swiss Re Ltd. gained 2.5 percent to 75.65 francs, its highest price since June 2008. Investors will receive a special dividend of 4 francs a share, plus an ordinary dividend of 3.50 francs, the insurer said. That exceeded the average forecast of eight analysts for a total payout of 6.21 francs a share. Fourth-quarter net income of $795 million beat the average analyst estimate of $240.3 million.

Schneider Electric SA climbed 2.3 percent to 56.67 euros after the world’s biggest maker of low- and medium-voltage equipment said revenue will rebound in 2013. The company added that net income rose 3 percent to 1.84 billion euros in 2012. The average analyst estimate had called for profit of 1.83 billion euros.

BAE Systems Plc jumped 4.1 percent to 345.9 pence, its biggest rally in more than five months. Europe’s largest arms company said it will buy back as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.5 billion) of shares over three years after reporting full-year earnings that fell less than analysts had predicted.

U.S. stocks fell, extending yesterday's decline, to close at the lowest levels since February 4.

The reason for selling was submitted last minutes of the last meeting of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve, in which information was seen as a signal that the Fed will, sooner rather than later schedule, will minimize the monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Investors fear that minimize incentives can have a very negative impact on the state of the U.S. economy.

Decrease in the indices failed to stop the data on existing home sales in the U.S. market, which in January was slightly better than expected (4.92 million units vs. 4.91 million). In parallel with the data on the housing market report was published by the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the value of which in February unexpectedly fell to -12.5 points, expected growth rate to -5.8 points in January to 0.7 in February.

Stocks fell, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, amid comments from U.S. Federal Reserve about the possible future monetary policy. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard said that the Fed could reduce the rate of monthly purchases of assets in the amount of $ 85 billion, not suddenly stop them if the economic situation will continue to improve this year. He noted that the interest rate rise could occur by June 2014, as the unemployment rate could fall below 6.5%. It is the threshold level set by the Fed.

Most of the components of the index DOW finished trading in the red (21 of 30). Lost more than 3% shares Bank of America Corporation (BAC, -3.22%) and The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, -3.10%). Leader was led Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +2.40%).

All sectors of the S & P showed a negative trend. Maximum loss demonstrated financial sector (-1.2%).

Manufacturer of terminals for payment cards VeriFone Systems fell to 42.8% after the posted disappointing quarterly earnings forecasts due to the unfavorable economic situation in Europe.

Manufacturer of electric Tesla Motors dipped by 8.9 against the published quarterly report - company's losses were larger than expected on Wall Street, and excluding some items were 65 cents per share forecast at 57 cents.

At the close:

S & P 500 1,502.42 -9.53 -0.63%

NASDAQ 3,131.49 -32.92 -1.04%

02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending January +1.0% -2.5%

The euro traded 0.4 percent from the lowest in six weeks before Italy’s parliamentary election starts this weekend. The 17-nation euro headed for a third weekly loss ahead of the Feb. 24-25 voting, with opinion polls showing former premier Silvio Berlusconi closing a gap with front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani.

The Australian dollar climbed after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said today he’d need to be confident the currency is “seriously overvalued” before considering intervention to weaken it.

The yen headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than three months as investors speculated about who will take the reins at the Bank of Japan. Kazumasa Iwata, a former BOJ deputy governor and a potential candidate for the top job, said his proposal for the government and central bank to buy foreign bonds is aimed at helping prevent a global financial crisis, not weakening the yen, according to a report by Japan’s Jiji Press yesterday. Iwata’s advocacy of foreign-bond purchases makes him the most yen-bearish candidate, according to a note from Citigroup Inc. this week. Iwata and Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda are seen as the leading contenders, the Mainichi newspaper reported yesterday, without citing anyone.

Abe is in Washington to meet President Barack Obama today. His LDP had proposed setting up a foreign bond fund until this week, when he said the need for it had lessened.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose above $1.3200.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5320.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y93.40.

Friday brings Germany Ifo data at 0900GMT, of note after Tuesday's positive ZEW reading but followed by flash PMI's that disappointed Thursday. The key data of the day seen at 1100GMT when the ECB announces LTRO2 repayments, market expecting around E120-125bln and will gauge reaction if amount misses this area. Italian elections still loom for this weekend with performance of Berlusconi the active factor. Ther morning's releases are followed by a very light US calendar, though expect some position adjustments into the weekend. Germany Ifo at 0900GMT.

Change % Change Last

Oil $92.98 +0.14 +0.15%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,309.13 -159.15 -1.39%

Hang Seng 22,906.67 -400.74 -1.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,980.09 -118.62 -2.33%

Shanghai Composite 2,325.95 -71.23 -2.97%

CAC 40 3,624.8 -85.08 -2.29%

DAX 7,583.57 -145.33 -1.88%

S&P 500 1,502.42 -9.53 -0.63%

NASDAQ 3,131.49 -32.92 -1.04%

Dow 13,880.62 -46.92 -0.34%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3189 -0,71%

GBP/USD $1,5253 +0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,9308 +0,42%

USD/JPY Y93,11 -0,47%

EUR/JPY Y122,81 -1,16%

GBP/JPY Y142,03 -0,33%

AUD/USD $1,0245 -0,10%

NZD/USD $0,8338 -0,22%

USD/CAD C$1,0184 +0,19%

02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending January +1.0%

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.6% -0.6%

07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 104.2 104.9

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 108.0 108.0

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 100.5 100.8

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m December +0.2% -0.3%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m December -0.3% +0.1%

13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m January -0.6% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y January +0.8% -0.7%

13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m January -0.6%

13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y January +1.1% +1.1%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate February -13.2 -11.1

15:30 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks February