CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-02-2013

The euro fell sharply against the dollar, losing all previously won positions, after the first results of the exit polls in Italy pointed to the center-left coalition victory Bersani. Now, the former Prime Minister Berlusconi is, according to the updated surveys, gaining 32% of the vote against Bersani, whose 28.7%. However, the last word will be for B. Grillo, representing 25% of the voters. Coalition Grillo and Bersani gaining around 53%, which is enough to win.

The yen fell to the weakest level since May 2010 against the dollar on speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will choose as the next head of the Bank of Japan advocate aggressive easing of monetary policy.

The pound fell to its lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar after the international rating agency Moody's Investors Service has downgraded by one notch, from Aaa to "Aa1", the UK government bond rating. The rating outlook - "stable." The Agency, in particular, pointed to the risks to the financial situation of the country due to the economic slowdown. Moody's expects the UK government debt in the coming years, as the rise of the British economy will be slow and uncertain, at least until 2016. Accordingly, the UK will continue to adhere to measures to reduce public spending. In January of approved applications for mortgages BBA in Britain fell by 33.6 thousand to 32.3 thousand vs. 34.2 thousand

The Canadian dollar was down against the U.S. dollar on speculation the governor of the Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said that economic growth slowed more than expected.

European stock markets closed down growth, as the focus of many investors now are the results of the elections in Italy.

The cost of Pearson Plc fell 3.7% to 1,171 pence, while showing the biggest drop since July 27, after the Financial Times said that projected operating profit for 2013 will match last year.

Shares of Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc (RB /) fell 3% after fixing with the largest drop since May, after it was reported that U.S. regulators have agreed to two nenazvanym generics manufacturers to manufacture tablets.

The cost of Deutsche Boerse AG jumped 5.6 percent to 49.30 euros, showing the biggest gain since June 29, after four people familiar with the situation, but who wanted to remain anonymous, said the possible merger talks.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell less than 0.1 percent to 288.40 at the close of trading.

National indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,355.37 +19.67 +0.31% CAC 40 3,721.33 +15.05 +0.41% DAX 7,773.19 +111.28 +1.45%

PostNL cost rose by 6.6% to 1.97 euros, while showing the largest gain since January 21, after it was reported that fourth-quarter profit before interest and tax amounted to 219 million euros ($ 290 million). Note that according to the average forecast profit was $ 144 million.

BP Plc shares rose 1.6% to 451.2 pence on the background of the fact that today the commencement of the proceedings of the rupture of oil in the Gulf in 2010.

The cost of oil has increased, rising at the same time above $ 115 a barrel, which was associated with a significant reduction of the dollar in the first half of today's trading. At the same time, analysts note that the rise in prices is promoted by that many investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's speech, which could shed light on the future of the program to purchase assets. Meanwhile, the rise in price of oil has also been caused by the Italian data with exit polls, which showed that the center-right can get 31% of center-left - 29.5%.

Recall that last week, the focus of the market are minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC, which showed that some Fed officials are considering the completion of its program of monetary stimulus earlier than expected.

Note also that a slight pressure on the oil price have presented today data from China, which showed that the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell sharply in February, while still achieving the level of 50.4, up from 52.3 last month. Economists say that this is an allusion to the first deterioration in economic activity in the country in the last five months, and also serves as a reminder that the road to economic recovery will be difficult.

Furthermore, we note that a further increase in prices constrains caution investors before the talks between Iran and world powers to resolve the issue of the disputed nuclear program. Note that any progress in these discussions could be a positive for the stock markets and to downward pressure on the price of oil.

April futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 93.23 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

April futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose 30 cents and is now $ 114.51 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rose today as the rally in equity markets and the significant weakening of the dollar, which was noted for most of the trading has helped offset some of the losses suffered last week. Meanwhile, experts say that this dynamic is related to caution among investors ahead of speech Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress later this week.

Analysts said prices also provided support lowering the credit rating of the United Kingdom by the rating agency Moody `s and signs that Japan will continue to hold the ultrasoft monetary policy. Note that Moody's has downgraded the credit rating of the United Kingdom by one notch - from the highest Aaa to Aa1, the rating outlook is "stable." As it became known that one of the main reasons for the downgrade is called weak outlook for medium-term development of the economy of the United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, experts say that from a technical point of view, to talk about recovery in gold prices until early revenge, despite the current rise, so you should wait for a move above $ 1,600 or even $ 1,625.

As market participants' attention focused today on elections in Italy, where an unstable government could lead to another crisis of confidence in the single currency of the European Union.

We also add that buying at lower levels of physical gold in Asia has helped to raise prices, while a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in China in February raised concerns about the global economic recovery.

In addition, data from the International Monetary Fund showed that Russia and Turkey have increased their gold reserves in January, which was the second consecutive monthly increase, while at the same time emphasizes the interest of central banks to diversify their reserves into bullion.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today has grown, and now stands at 1587.20 dollars per ounce.

Sold E7.483bln vs target E6.4bln-E7.6bln

- E3.792bln 3-month BTF, avg yield 0.012% (0.015%), cover 1.91 (2.29)

- E1.897bln 6-month BTF, avg yield 0.041% (0.050%), cover 2.47 (3.66)

- E1.794bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.121% (0.131%), cover 3.4 (2.78)

U.S. stock futures have grown on speculation Bank of Japan and other major central banks will continue to provide monetary stimulus. 

Global Stocks:

Other:

Apple (AAPL) was reiterated at Buy at Needham, target lowered from $750 to $710

09:00 Italy Parliamentary Election

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals January 33.6 34.2 32.3

Euro strengthens, pending the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Italy. The voting process will end at 14:00 GMT, and the first results will be around 15:00 GMT. The most likely scenario, which would be positive for the euro, will be an alliance between the center-left Bersani and Mario Monti.

A preliminary report from Italy showed that in January, the trade balance, excluding EU countries amounted to - € 2.281 billion versus + € 3.317 billion a month earlier. Last month, Spain's PPI fell by 3.3% (revised from 2.7%) to 2.6%. Today, the Italian government sold two-year zero coupon bonds in the amount of 2.818 billion euros ($ 3.71 billion), short of the upper threshold of the forecast range of 3 billion euros.

The British pound has stabilized after a decline at the opening of the day, after the international rating agency Moody's Investors Service has downgraded by one notch, from Aaa to "Aa1", the UK government bond rating. The rating outlook - "stable." The Agency, in particular, pointed to the risks to the financial situation of the country due to the economic slowdown. Moody's expects the UK government debt in the coming years, as the rise of the British economy will be slow and uncertain, at least until 2016. Accordingly, the UK will continue to adhere to measures to reduce public spending. In January of approved applications for mortgages BBA in Britain fell by 33.6 thousand to 32.3 thousand vs. 34.2 thousand

Yen compensate the losses incurred in response to rumors (not yet confirmed) that the prime minister Abe appoint new head of ADB President Kuroda, a supporter of the additional stimulus. At the opening of the Asian session, the yen fell to a three-year low against the dollar on news reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally put forward for the post of Central Bank nominee Harika Kuroda, head of the Asian Development Bank. Kuroda advocated aggressive monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to formally nominate the 68-year-old Kuroda in the middle of the week, after which it must be approved by Parliament. Kuroda said the real reach 2 per cent inflation for two years, thus defeating the long-term deflation. At the same time, the official confirmation of the upcoming nomination Kuroda to head the Bank of Japan yet. The current head of the Central Bank leaves his post on March 19.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair has shown a steady growth up to $ 1.3318

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.5110 - $ 1.5165

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair updated intraday low Y93.76

At 17:15 GMT The head of the Bank of Canada to make a speech. At 21:15 GMT a speech assistant chairman of the Australian central bank Guy Debelle.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3355/60, $1.3335/40, $1.3300/10, $1.3275/80

Bids $1.3210/00, $1.3175-50, $1.3125/20, $1.3100

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5225/35, $1.5200, $1.5180, $1.5160/65

Bids $1.5120/15, $1.5100, $1.5070, $1.5050, $1.5010/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0350, $1.0325/30

Bids $1.0280/75, $1.0250, $1.0240/35, $1.0215, $1.0210/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8890/900, stg0.8830-50, stg0.8820, stg0.8800 stg0.8780/85

Bids stg0.8710/00, stg0.8685/80, stg0.8640/45, stg0.8630/20

EUR/JPY

Offers Y126.30, Y126.00, Y125.50, Y125.00, Y124.65/70

Bids Y124.10/00, Y123.50, Y123.20, Y123.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y95.25, Y95.00, Y94.45/50, Y94.15/20

Bids Y93.80/70, Y93.50, Y93.20/15, Y93.00

European stocks gained amid speculation Japan may appoint a central bank chief who favors stimulus and as investors awaited the result of Italy’s elections.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will probably nominate Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda as Bank of Japan governor, two government officials with knowledge of the discussions said. Kuroda said earlier this month additional monetary easing can be justified for 2013.

Pollsters will release initial estimates of the Italian election results after 3 p.m. in Rome today. Incumbent Mario Monti and front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani of the Democratic Party have vowed to maintain budget rigor, while Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo have promised to stop tax increases.

The U.K. lost its top credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, which cited weakness in the country’s growth outlook and challenges to the government’s fiscal consolidation program. Moody’s said late Feb. 22 that it lowered the rating one level to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook on the nation’s debt to stable from negative.

In China, the preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.4 in February, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. That compared with the 52.3 final reading for January and the 52.2 median estimate of 11 analysts . A number above 50 indicates growth.

BP gained 6.45 pence to 450.5 pence as a U.S. trial over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill begins today. The U.S. and Gulf states are considering a $16 billion accord with BP over pollution fines and natural-resource damages claims, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 22, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Pearson Plc retreated 3.1 percent to 1,178 pence after saying it expects tough market conditions to continue this year. The publisher of the Financial Times newspaper forecast 2013 operating profit will be in line with 2012, when earnings fell.

FTSE 100 6,372.91 +37.21 +0.59%

CAC 40 3,758.71 +52.43 +1.41%

DAX 7,828.3 +166.39 +2.17%

Germany sold E1.939bln 12-month Bubill at average yield 0.0353% (0.1319%), cover 2.2 (1.8) and E1.061bln or 35% held for secondary market operations vs 31% previously.

• Italy sold E2.818bln CTZ vs target E2.0bn-E3.0bn
  
• E2.818bln of Dec 2014 CTZ; avg yield 1.682% (1.43%), cover 1.65 (1.45)
  
• E941mln of 2.10% 2021 BTPei; avg yield 2.79%, cover 1.76
  
• E309mln of 3.10% 2026 BTPei; avg yield 3.23%, cover 3.31
  

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3400, $1.3450

USD/JPY Y93.00, Y93.50, 94.00

EUR/JPY Y125.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8600

Asian stocks rose, extending last week’s advance, as Japanese shares led gains on speculation the next Bank of Japan governor will deploy aggressive monetary easing. Hong Kong developers fell after the city doubled taxes on some property transactions.

Nikkei 225 11,662.52 +276.58 +2.43%

S&P/ASX 200 5,055.77 +37.62 +0.75%

Shanghai Composite 2,325.82 +11.66 +0.50%

JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s No. 2 steelmaker by market value, jumped 8.6 percent for the second-biggest advance on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

Beach Energy Ltd. rose 5.8 percent in Sydney after Chevron Corp. agreed to partner with the energy company on gas exploration.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. fell 2.2 percent, pacing declines among Hong Kong developers.

The euro lost all previously won positions against the dollar after the European Central Bank said that the bank will pay 1.74 billion euros for the first loan LTRO on February 27 against 3.79 billion euros the previous week. Meanwhile, the ECB announced that nine banks paid the first loan LTRO 27 February to 9 banks in the previous week, and 356 bank loan payments for the 2nd operation LTRO on February 27. In addition, the European Central Bank said that the bank will pay 61.1 billion euros in the second three-year loan LTRO on February 27.

The pressure on the European currency has also forecast by the European Commission, according to which, eurozone GDP will decrease by 0.3% in 2013 and grow by 1.4% in 2014, while the budget deficit in the euro area will be 2.8% of GDP in 2013 and 2.7% in 2014. Recall that the Commission previously predicted growth of euro area GDP by 0.1% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014

The Australian dollar rose sharply against the dollar, departing from a seven-week low amid comments head RBA Stevens, who echo the statements of the last minutes of the Bank, and concluded that the monetary easing "done its job" in supporting the Australian economy. In addition, he noted that for an intervention to weaken the Australian dollar threshold is quite high and it is necessary to be sure that the currency is seriously overvalued. In addition, Stevens has signaled the possible end of a cycle of declining interest rates. At the same time, economists note that the next change in interest rates is likely to be to the downside, and not increase as the economy there are increasing signs of growth. Recall that the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 1.75 percentage points, to 3.00% in an effort to support the growth of the economy. Latest interest rate cut was in December.

Course of the New Zealand dollar rose against the dollar, which was the first time in three days, after a report showed that the amount of spending on credit cards has increased in the last month, registering with the third monthly increase in a row.

The yen traded in a narrow range, as market participants are waiting for the meeting of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Barack Obama.

Asian stocks erased losses as Japanese and Australian shares rebounded amid speculation yesterday’s decline on the regional benchmark index was excessive.

Nikkei 225 11,385.94 +76.81 +0.68%

Hang Seng 22,790.63 -116.04 -0.51%

S&P/ASX 200 5,018.15 +38.05 +0.76%

Shanghai Composite 2,314.16 -11.79 -0.51%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender, rose 1.1 percent after the central bank governor said interest-rate cuts should be given time to do their work.

Tosoh Corp. jumped 4.3 percent in Tokyo on a report the chemical maker developed materials that prevent lithium ion batteries from catching fire.

Belle International Holdings Ltd. declined 5.5 percent in Hong Kong as analysts from Nomura Holdings Inc. and CCB International Securities Ltd. downgraded the shoe retailer.

European shares rose for the first week in four as better-than-expected company earnings and measures of German confidence outweighed concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its asset-purchase program.

In Germany, investor confidence increased to the highest level in almost three years in February. The index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to 48.2 from 31.5 in January, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research said this week. That exceeded the median estimate of economists in a survey calling for an increase to 35.

Separately, the Ifo institute’s business climate index for Europe’s biggest economy, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 107.4 in February from a revised 104.3 in January. The median of 38 forecasts in a survey had called for an increase to 104.9. The latest reading was the highest since April.

Still, the euro-area economy will shrink for a second year in 2013, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 10 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 0.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 added 1.3 percent. Germany’s DAX gained 0.9 percent.

Lafarge advanced 7.7 percent. The world’s biggest cement maker said it’ll meet most of a cost-cutting goal one year early after fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates on rising sales in Asia and Latin America. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose to 856 million euros from 798 million euros a year earlier, the Paris-based company said. Analysts had expected 821.6 million euros.

Natixis rallied 18 percent. The investment-bank unit of France’s second-largest lender by branches said it will make a payment to shareholders after selling back stakes in its parent’s banking networks. The distribution amounts to 65 cents a share, and comes on top of a proposed dividend of 10 cents a share for 2012.

Royal KPN NV plunged 13 percent for the second-worst performance on the Stoxx 600 this week. America Movil SAB, the mobile-phone carrier controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim, will take part in a 3 billion-euro KPN share sale, while declining to participate in a 1 billion-euro sale of so-called hybrid instruments.

RSA Insurance Group Plc tumbled 11 percent after announcing a dividend cut. The U.K.’s biggest non-life insurer by market value lowered its payout by 33 percent as its 2012 underwriting profit was eroded by claims related to wet weather in the U.K. and earthquakes in Italy.

Major U.S. stock indexes spent trading in positive territory, reducing the weekly losses.

Indexes rebounded after two days of losses, receiving support from the Fed's Bullard comments, after a speech that expectations of imminent tightening of monetary policy the Fed decreased.

Bullard said that if the market situation improves, the Fed can reduce the volume of purchases, but abruptly stop shopping should not be, because it does not benefit the economy.

Positively to the dynamics of futures also reflected strong quarterly report Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), whose shares soared 12.3%.

Supported the growth indices and statistics of the European index of consumer confidence from Germany Gfk. According to the data, the index in February reached 107.4 points, which is the maximum level since May last year. Expected to rise to a level of the index 104.9 points against 104.2 points in January values.

Limited the growth indices published by the European Commission forecasts eurozone GDP, according to which it is expected to decline by 0.3% in 2013 (previous forecast was at +0.1%).

Also worth noting is the information from the European Central Bank (ECB) that the amount of the regular repayment of loans granted by commercial banks as part of LTRO, will be significantly lower than the previous (1.74 billion euros compared to the previous 3.79 billion euros).

Most of the components of the index DOW finished trading in the red (25 of 30). More than others in the share price fell Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (UNH, -1.39%). Leader by a wide margin were already mentioned shares Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +12.28%). Earnings forecast for the world's largest PC maker Hewlett-Packard, excluding certain items in the second fiscal quarter ending in April in the range of 80 to 82 cents per share was better than expected by analysts on average, 77 cents per share.

All sectors of the S & P showed a positive trend. More than the others climbed the financial sector (+1.2%).

Quotations U.S. insurance company American International Group (AIG) rose 3.14% after it reported a exceeded the average market forecast of quarterly results. Thus, the operating profit of the company was at $ 290 million, or 20 cents a share, while analysts on average were expecting a loss of 8 cents per share.

The world's biggest producer of analog microchips Texas Instruments gained weight 5.23% due to increase its quarterly dividend by 33% to 21 cents per share to 28 cents per share and plans to expand the program to repurchase shares at $ 5 billion

Meanwhile, a U.S. manufacturer of adhesive paper and painting equipment Nordson eased 7.27% on expectations of profit in the second quarter in the range of 78 to 87 cents a share, compared with projected at average 93 cents per share.

The market capitalization of American youth clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch has decreased by 4.46% after it recorded a 11% rise in sales to $ 1.47 billion in the fourth quarter, which, however, fell short of analysts' average forecast of $ 1 , 49 billion

At the close:

S & P 500 1,515.6 +13.18 +0.88%

NASDAQ 3,161.82 +30.33 +0.97%

00:01 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 52.3 52.2 50.4

The yen sank to an almost three-year low as Japan’s government narrowed down candidates to run the central bank and pursue the prime minister’s plan for expanded monetary stimulus. The Asian currency declined against all its major peers as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was said to be very likely to nominate Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda for Bank of Japan governor. Abe is also likely to tap Kikuo Iwata, an academic who has advocated a ramping up in Japan’s monetary base, and Hiroshi Nakaso, a senior BOJ official, as deputy governors, according to a government official with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named as the talks are private. Japanese media reported on the nominations earlier.

The pound slid against the dollar for a second day after Moody’s lowered the rating on the U.K. by one level to Aa1 from Aaa. It cited weakness in the nation’s growth outlook and challenges to the government’s fiscal consolidation program, according to a Feb. 22 statement.

The Australian dollar sank against all its major peers except the yen after data indicated China’s manufacturing may expand at a slower pace this month. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.4 in February, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compares with the 52.3 final reading for January and the 52.2 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A number above 50 indicates expansion.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3180-20.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5070, but later recovered.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y94.60, but later dropped Y93.95.

A fairly light data calendar for today, Italian bond auction at 1000GMT to provide the morning interest. There is only a limited UK data calendar, with the release of the January BBA Lending Data. At 1545GMT, UK Chancellor George Osborne is set to appear before the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, in what could be a rocky appearance following the UK's sovereign downgrade on Friday.

00:01 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 52.3 52.2

09:00 Italy Parliamentary Election

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals January 33.6 34.2

15:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

17:15 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks