CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-09-2017

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 99th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore: "The August PMI registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 56.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 60.4 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 0.4 percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 60.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.9 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the July reading of 55.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.1 percent, a 1.7 percentage point increase from the July reading of 55.4 percent

EUR/USD: 1.1745-50(784 млн), 1.1850-55(1.75 млрд), 1.1870(1.12 млрд), 1.1895-1.1900(1.3 млрд), 1.1925-30(1.98 млрд), 1.1950 (440 млн), 1.2000 (1.53 млрд)

USD/JPY: 106.95-107.00(1.01 млрд), 107.98-108.00(1.07 млрд), 109.00(564 млн), 109.35-40(603 млн), 109.90-110.00(1.88 млн), 110.25(533 млн), 110.50-55(938 млн), 111.00(852 млн), 113.00(756 млн)

AUD/USD: 0.7895(930 млн), 0.8000(713 млн)

USD/CHF: 0.9500(310 млн), 0.9670-75(310 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2600(515 млн)

EUR/JPY: 128.25(487 млн), 131.50-55(906 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures were rose on Friday, as the U.S. jobs report cut the chances the Fed would increase its rates once again this year.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,691.47 +45.23 +0.23%

Hang Seng 27,953.16 -17.14 -0.06%

Shanghai 3,367.30 +6.49 +0.19%

S&P/ASX 5,724.59 +10.07 +0.18%

FTSE 7,450.59 +19.97 +0.27%

CAC5,117.70 +32.11 +0.63%

DAX 12,125.89 +70.05 +0.58%

Crude $47.02 (-0.44%)

Gold $1,324.90 (+0.20%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $180 from $176 at RBC Capital Mkts

In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $26.39, after rising by 9 cents in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $22.12.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining.
In August, the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.1 million, were little changed. After declining earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.3 or 4.4 percent since April.

EUR/USD: 1.1745-50(784 m), 1.1850-55(1.75 b), 1.1870(1.12 b), 1.1895-1.1900(1.3 b), 1.1925-30(1.98 b), 1.1950 (440 m), 1.2000 (1.53 b)

USD/JPY: 106.95-107.00(1.01 b), 107.98-108.00(1.07 b), 109.00(564 m), 109.35-40(603 m), 109.90-110.00(1.88 m), 110.25(533 m), 110.50-55(938 m), 111.00(852 m), 113.00(756 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7895(930 m), 0.8000(713 m)

USD/CHF: 0.9500(310 m), 0.9670-75(310 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2600(515 m)

EUR/JPY: 128.25(487 m), 131.50-55(906 m)

This was highlighted by the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posting 56.9, up from 55.3 in July, to its secondhighest level in over three years. All five of the PMI components - output, new orders, employment, suppliers' delivery times and stocks of purchases - were consistent with a stronger performance for the manufacturing industry during August. Production rose at the steepest pace in seven months, underpinned by faster intakes of new work received. Moreover, rates of expansion in both variables were among the best registered since mid-2014.

German manufacturing posted a stronger performance in August following July's slight loss of momentum, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit and BME.

Overall operating conditions improved at a pace close to the six-year highs seen in May and June. Output, new orders and new export business all rose more sharply than in July, with the latter expanding at the fastest rate since May 2010. Suppliers remained under pressure, with lead times lengthening to the greatest extent since April 2011.

The PMI rose to 59.3 in August, from July's fivemonth low of 58.1. This was the third-highest level since April 2011, and signalled a marked overall improvement in manufacturing business conditions in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone's largest economy. The upward movement in the PMI reflected faster increases in output and new orders as well as a greater lengthening in suppliers' delivery times. The current 33-month period of overall growth is the second-longest in the 21-year survey history.

August saw a strong and accelerated increase in eurozone manufacturing production, as robust demand and rising employment underpinned a solid improvement in overall operating conditions. The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.4, up from 56.6 in July and equalling June's 74-month high.

The PMI has remained above the 50.0 no-change mark for 50 successive months, with the latest reading unchanged from its earlier flash estimate. The expansion was led by a strong core of Germany, the Netherlands and Austria.

PMI readings for Austria and the Netherlands both hit 78-month highs, while the rate of growth signalled for Germany was among the best registered since early-2011. These nations also recorded the steepest increases in output and new orders.

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.8% in nominal terms in July 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.7% in July 2017 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 1.3%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2004 (2712)

$1.1977 (4424)

$1.1940 (3936)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1896

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1858 (1467)

$1.1835 (2204)

$1.1806 (2198)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 140650 contracts (according to data from August, 31) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5637);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3027 (2998)

$1.2997 (1331)

$1.2974 (1565)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2915

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2893 (1925)

$1.2866 (2725)

$1.2831 (2348)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 38555 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3078);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 33320 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2725);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.86 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 31

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) jumped 3.8 points higher in August to 59.8 points (seasonally adjusted). Results above 50 points indicate expansion with higher results indicating a stronger expansion.

This was the highest monthly result for the Australian PMI® since 2002. It marked an eleventh consecutive month of expansion for the Australian PMI and the longest consecutive run of expansion since 2007 in the seasonally adjusted series.

Six of the seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in August (seasonally adjusted). Production and new orders were especially strong (61.4 and 64.3 points), but they were coupled with a robust expansion in inventories (58.9 points) rather than in sales (50.9 points)

The following movements occurred in the June 2017 quarter, compared with the March 2017 quarter.

• The merchandise (goods) terms of trade rose 1.5 percent.

• Export prices for goods rose 2.4 percent, while import prices for goods rose 0.9 percent.

• Seasonally adjusted goods export volumes rose 6.8 percent, and goods import volumes rose 2.3 percent.

• Seasonally adjusted goods export values rose 9.0 percent, and goods import values rose 2.9 percent.

The 1.5 percent rise in terms of trade in the June quarter follows a 3.9 percent increase in the March 2017 quarter, revised down from a provisional increase of 5.1 percent. The smaller increase for the March 2017 quarter than first reported mainly reflects a correction in the provisional price of forestry products. This correction will also flow through to the expenditure measure of gross domestic product, but is not significant enough to change the overall story.

The Japanese manufacturing sector continued to experience improving operating conditions during August, with output, new orders and employment all registering expansion. Strengthened demand from both domestic and international sources (especially China) was widely reported by panellists.

Price data showed that inflationary pressures continued to dissipate, with input costs rising to the slowest degree of 2017 so far. Output charges were increased only slightly as a result.

The headline Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite singlefigure indicator of manufacturing performance - was little changed during August at a level of 52.2 (July: 52.1). The latest reading was indicative of solid growth, and the PMI has now recorded above the 50.0 no-change mark for 12 successive months.

China's manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory in August, fuelled by the strongest increase in new business for just over three years. Firmer foreign demand was a key driver of new order growth, with export sales rising to the greatest extent in over seven years in August.

As a result, companies expanded their production schedules and buying activity, while business confidence rose to its highest for five months. However, stricter environmental policies were a key factor leading to longer delivery times, whilst inflationary pressures intensified as input costs and output charges both rose at faster rates.

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy - registered 51.6 in August, up from 51.1 in July to signal an improvement in overall operating conditions. The health of China's manufacturing sector has now strengthened in each of the past three months, with the latest upturn the strongest since February.

European stocks moved higher Thursday, as basic resources shares rose following better-than-expected manufacturing data from China, but retail shares struggled after a warning from French supermarket chain Carrefour SA. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.77% picked up 0.8% to close at 373.88, adding to a 0.7% gain from Wednesday, when fears of a military conflict between the U.S. and North Korea eased and enlivened buying appetite.

U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, with the main indexes posting their fifth consecutive monthly gain. Meanwhile, a rally in biotech shares pushed the Nasdaq Composite into record territory. Earlier, a pair of economic reports in the morning that highlighted continued improvement in the economy also boosted sentiment on Wall Street.

Asian shares were mostly higher Friday, taking their cue from optimism on Wall Street set off by a report showing spending by U.S. consumers growing in July, along with wages and salaries. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 edged up 0.2 percent to 19,684.81 in early trading, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added nearly 0.2 percent to 5,723.40. But South Korea's Kospi lost 0.2 percent at 2,359.02.