CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-02-2014

The euro rose moderately against the U.S. dollar amid mixed statistics. In the U.S. went out report that the activity in the U.S. non-manufacturing sector continued to grow in January . This is evidenced by data released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-productive sphere the U.S. in January rose to 54.0 against 53.0 in December. Economists had expected the index to rise last month to 53.8 . Values ​​above 50 indicate growth in activity .

As shown by recent data that were presented Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in January, private sector employment increased markedly , although not enough to confirm the evaluation of many economists. According to a report last month, the number of employed increased by 175,000 people, compared with a revised downward indicator for the previous month at 227 million ( initially reported growth of 238 thousand jobs ) . Add that, according to the average forecast of this indicator would grow by 191 thousand

Little impact on the European currency had data for the euro area , which showed that the euro zone's private sector quickened in January , while reaching the highest levels in the last two and a half growth, rapid growth of production eclipsed the more modest expansion in the services sector .

According to the report , the final composite purchasing managers index from Markit, which measures business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector , rose to 52.9 in January from 52.1 in the previous month . It was the highest result since June 2011 . Nevertheless , the final assessment was slightly pre - 53.2 at .

In Markit said that growth in the eurozone PMI observed broad-based and led by Germany was lifting . The data also showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose to a four-month high in January - to the level of 51.6 from 51.9 . However , this result was below the pre-assessment at the level of 51.9 .

The British pound has fallen sharply earlier against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of unexpectedly weak data on Britain. As it became known , the growth in the services sector in Britain, which is dominant , unexpectedly slowed last month, but activity remained high , suggesting that the economy will gain momentum in the first quarter of 2014 . The survey also showed growth companies price pressure for the service sector , but not to a level that could be a problem for the Bank of England , and encourage him to raise interest rates. According to the report , the index of services PMI fell to 58.3 in January from 58.8 points points in December , reaching its lowest level since June . Add that according to the average forecasts of experts, the value of this index would grow to 59.1 points. However , despite the decline , the index remained well above 50 points , which separates growth from contraction.

Meanwhile, it became known that the composite indicator of the three indices PMI ( manufacturing , construction and services sector ) fell to 59.1 in January from 59.4 in December , dropping to its lowest level since June .

European stocks advanced for the first time in four days as investors weighed data that showed U.S. services-industries growth accelerated while employers in the world’s largest economy hired fewer workers than estimated.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 318.04 at the close. The gauge declined 5.5 percent from a Jan. 22 high through yesterday as the Federal Reserve announced the second installment of a reduction in monthly bond purchases and emerging-market currencies tumbled.

The service industry in the U.S. grew at a faster pace last month, after expanding in December at the slowest rate since July 2012, the Institute for Supply Management said today. The group’s non-manufacturing index increased to 54 in January from 53 in December. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a reading of 53.7.

Companies in the U.S. increased payrolls by 175,000 in January, figures from the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey, showed. That missed the median projection of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg that called for an advance of 185,000. Estimates ranged from gains of 125,000 to 241,000.

National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets today. France’s CAC 40 added less than 0.1 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX slid 0.1 percent.

GlaxoSmithKline added 1.6 percent to 1,579.5 pence after saying revenue will rise 2 percent and earnings per share excluding currency swings and some items will increase by 4 percent to 8 percent in 2014.

Swatch increased 3.9 percent to 553.50 Swiss francs after saying 2013 operating income rose 17 percent to 2.31 billion francs ($2.55 billion). That exceeded the 2.07 billion-franc average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The biggest maker of Swiss watches said it got more than 400 million francs in compensation from Tiffany & Co. over a failed alliance.

Handelsbanken advanced 3 percent to 318.40 kronor, its biggest increase since Oct. 22. The Swedish lender proposed a total dividend of 16.50 kronor per share, comprising a special dividend of 5 kronor and a regular dividend of 11.50 kronor. That compares with a payout of 10.75 kronor per share a year earlier and a Bloomberg dividend projection of 11.50 kronor.

Alfa Laval AB gained 4.6 percent to 162.80 kronor, its biggest advance in one year. The largest maker of heat exchangers posted fourth-quarter order intake of 8.17 billion kronor ($1.25 billion), compared with 7.45 billion kronor in the third quarter. Commerzbank AG said in a note the order intake beat analysts’ estimates for the first time since the second quarter of 2012.

West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed after erasing a gain of 1.1 percent.

WTI for March delivery increased 18 cents to $97.37 a barrel at 10:50 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 7 percent lower than the 100-day average.

Brent for March settlement advanced 14 cents to $105.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was near the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude’s premium to WTI narrowed to as little as $7.91 a barrel, slipping below $8 for the first time since Oct. 10.

Crude inventories rose 440,000 barrels to 358.1 million last week, the Energy Information Administration reported today. The report was projected to show a 2.55 million-barrel gain, according to the median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Supplies of crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI traded in New York, declined 1.55 million barrels to 40.3 million, the report showed.

U.S. crude production was unchanged at 8.04 million barrels a day, the EIA said. It rose to 8.16 million in the week ended Jan. 10, the highest level since 1988, as output surged on a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations.

Gasoline stockpiles rose by 505,000 barrels to 235 million in the week ended Jan. 31. A 1.15 million-barrel gain was forecast.

Refineries operated at 86.1 percent of capacity, down 2.1 percentage points from the prior week, the report showed.

The price of gold rose to one-week high after the release of the employment report from ADP. As shown by recent data that were presented Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in January, private sector employment increased markedly , although not enough to confirm the evaluation of many economists.

According to a report last month, the number of employed increased by 175,000 people, compared with a revised downward indicator for the previous month at 227 million ( initially reported growth of 238 thousand jobs ) . Add that, according to the average forecast of this indicator would grow by 191 thousand

Analysts predict a rise in gold prices in the near future due to investors' concerns over global economic growth and the withdrawal of capital from emerging markets after the Fed reduce incentives .

After a 28 percent drop in 2013, with the beginning of the year gold has risen in price by 4 percent due to power low-risk assets . Pointing to increased investor interest in precious metals , stocks the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund secured SPDR Gold Trust on Tuesday rose by 3.89 tonnes to 797.05 tonnes.

Demand in the physical market at the same time reduced due to celebrate the New Year by the lunar calendar in China, the rise in gold prices and the weakening of national currencies in other Asian countries .

The cost of the April gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1274.50 per ounce

U.S. stock-index futures fluctuated, as a private report showed companies added fewer jobs than forecast.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,180.38 +171.91 +1.23%

Hang Seng 21,269.38 -128.39 -0.60%

Shanghai Composite 2,033.08 -16.83 -0.82%

FTSE 6,473.2 +23.93 +0.37 %

CAC 4,125.16 +7.71 +0.19 %

DAX 9,126.93 -0.98 -0.01 %

Crude oil: $97.68 (+0.50%)

Gold $1267.50 (+1.30%).

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.50, Y101.90, Y102.45, Y104.00, Y104.25/30

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3610, $1.3650

AUD/USD $0.8725/30, $0.8750, $0.8825, $0.8855, $0.8875, $0.8880

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8235, stg0.8300

USD/CAD Cad1.0980, Cad1.1050, Cad1.1225, Cad1.1300

GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6400, $1.6500

USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9080, Chf0.9260

EUR/CHF Chf1.2150, Chf1.2350

AUD/JPY Y90.00, Y90.75

Data

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY December +0.6% Revised From +0.5% +0.7% +0.8%

08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) January 48.6 48.6 48.9

08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) January 53.6 53.6 53.1

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) January 51.9 51.9 51.6

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services January 58.8 59.1 58.3

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) December +1.4% -0.7% -1.6%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) December +1.6% -1.0%

Euro traded in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar , as many participants gradually shifts its attention to tomorrow's ECB meeting . Little impact on the European currency had data for the euro area , which showed that the euro zone's private sector quickened in January , while reaching the highest levels in the last two and a half growth, rapid growth of production eclipsed the more modest expansion in the services sector .

According to the report , the final composite purchasing managers index from Markit, which measures business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector , rose to 52.9 in January from 52.1 in the previous month . It was the highest result since June 2011 . Nevertheless , the final assessment was slightly pre - 53.2 at .

In Markit said that growth in the eurozone PMI observed broad-based and led by Germany was lifting . The data also showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose to a four-month high in January - to the level of 51.6 from 51.9 . However , this result was below the pre-assessment at the level of 51.9 .

The British pound has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of unexpectedly weak data on Britain. As it became known , the growth in the services sector in Britain, which is dominant , unexpectedly slowed last month, but activity remained high , suggesting that the economy will gain momentum in the first quarter of 2014 . The survey also showed growth companies price pressure for the service sector , but not to a level that could be a problem for the Bank of England , and encourage him to raise interest rates. According to the report , the index of services PMI fell to 58.3 in January from 58.8 points points in December , reaching its lowest level since June . Add that according to the average forecasts of experts, the value of this index would grow to 59.1 points. However , despite the decline , the index remained well above 50 points , which separates growth from contraction.

Meanwhile, it became known that the composite indicator of the three indices PMI ( manufacturing , construction and services sector ) fell to 59.1 in January from 59.4 in December, dropping to its lowest level since June .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3497 -$ 1.3527

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6260

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.05

At 13:15 GMT the United States will present data on changes in ADP Employment for January. At 13:30 GMT , Canada announces the change of volume of building permits issued in December. At 15:00 GMT the United States will composite index of ISM non-manufacturing areas and the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing sector in January .

European stocks rose slightly , interrupted in this case a series of three-day decline, as shares in banks and financial service companies rose . U.S. index futures are little changed, while Asian shares outside Japan fell .

The course of trade also affected data for the euro area , which showed that the private sector has quickened in January , while reaching the highest levels in the last two and a half growth, rapid growth of production eclipsed the more modest expansion in the services sector . According to the report , the final composite purchasing managers index from Markit, which measures business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector , rose to 52.9 in January from 52.1 in the previous month . It was the highest result since June 2011 . Nevertheless , the final assessment was slightly pre - 53.2 at .

The data also showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose to a four-month high in January - to the level of 51.6 from 51.9 . However , this result was below the pre-assessment at the level of 51.9 .

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent.

The dynamics of the indices also affect expectations publication employment report from ADP. According to economists' forecasts , the number of employees increased by 191 million in January , compared with an increase of 238 thousand a month earlier.

Shares of Alfa Laval AB showed the largest increase since July 2011 - by 5.05 % , after the publication of the report for the fourth quarter , which exceeded estimates .

Cost of Swatch Group AG rose 4.8 percent after reporting an annual profit that was higher than the estimates of economists.

At the current moment

FTSE 100 6,467.68 +18.41 +0.29 %

CAC 40 4,123.96 +6.51 +0.16 %

DAX 9,115.39 -12.52 -0.14%

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.50, Y101.90, Y102.45, Y104.00, Y104.25/30

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3610, $1.3650

AUD/USD $0.8725/30, $0.8750, $0.8825, $0.8855, $0.8875, $0.8880

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8235, stg0.8300

USD/CAD Cad1.0980, Cad1.1050, Cad1.1225, Cad1.1300

GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6400, $1.6500

USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9080, Chf0.9260

EUR/CHF Chf1.2150, Chf1.2350

AUD/JPY Y90.00, Y90.75

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from its biggest slump since June, after U.S. shares advanced and Japanese companies posted earnings that cheered investors.

Nikkei 225 14,180.38 +171.91 +1.23%

S&P/ASX 200 5,070.31 -26.75 -0.52%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Panasonic Corp. surged 19 percent, its largest gain in almost 40 years of trading, after Japan’s biggest consumer-electronics maker posted third-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates.

Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction gained 8.2 percent in Seoul after the homebuilder’s rating was raised at KTB Securities Co.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. sank 4.3 percent as markets reopened in Taipei after the Lunar New Year holiday.

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY December +0.5% +0.7% +0.8%

The euro declined toward a 10-week low against the yen before data today that may show retail sales fell in the region amid speculation the European Central Bank will reinforce its commitment to lower rates. Official data today may show that retails sales in the euro region fell 0.7 percent in December from a month earlier, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. They rose 1.4 percent in November, matching the biggest increase in 12 years.

The ECB will probably hold the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25 percent at its policy meeting tomorrow as it faces slowing inflation, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The European Union’s statistics office said last week that consumer-price growth slowed in January to match the least since November 2009. After the Jan. 9 policy meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank “strongly emphasizes” that it will maintain accommodative measures for as long as necessary.

The yen advanced against the currencies of New Zealand and Australia after Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, said the pace of China’s economic growth is one of the greatest risks for financial markets. “I call China the mystery meat of emerging-market countries,” Gross said yesterday during an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Nobody knows what’s there and there’s a little bit of bologna, so we’re just going to have to wonder going forward through this year as to the potential problems in China and other emerging markets.”

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3510-25

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6320-40

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.20

The data continues to come thick and fast on Wednesday, with the key early data the release of the European services PMI data. The European calendar gets underway at 0813GMT, with the release of the Spanish final January services PMI numbers, followed by Italy at 0843GMT, France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0848GMT and the Euro area amalgamated data at 0858GMT. Overall PMI numbers are seen as flat or modestly higher on December's number. In between, at 0830GMT, the German Chamber Of Trade and Industry, DIHK, issues its Spring business survey and forecasts, in Berlin. There is more eurozone data expected at 1000GMT, with the EMU December retail sales data set for release. Economists are looking for a fall of 0.7% on the month, higher by 1.5% on year.

The US calendar starts at 1200GMT, with the release of the MBA mortgage index for the Jan 31 week. At 1315GMT, the markets will get their first hint at Friday's non-farm payroll data when the January ADP National Employment Report is released. Analysts are looking for an add of 187,000 jobs. Canadian December Building Permits data will be released at 1330GMT. The US calendar continues at 1358GMT, when the January Markit Services PMI numbers are published. Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo and SEC Chair Mary Jo White testify on the impact of the Volcker rule before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, starting at 1500GMT. Also at 1500GMT, the January ISM non-manufacturing index will cross the wires, along with the January help-wanted online data. At 1530GMT, the EIA Crude oil stocks data for the Feb 01 week will cross the wires. There are further Fed appearances later in the day. At 1730GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser will give a speech on the economic outlook, in Rochester. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart delivers a speech on the economic outlook, in Birmingham, at 1840GMT.

Gold $1,255.00 +3.80 +0.30%

Oil $97.37 +0.18 +0.19%

Nikkei 225 14,008.4 -610.66 -4.18%

Hang Seng 21,479.52 -555.90 -2.52%

S&P/ASX 200 5,097.07 -90.85 -1.75%

Shanghai Composite Closed

FTSE 100 6,449.27 -16.39 -0.25%

CAC 40 4,117.45 +9.70 +0.24%

DAX 9,127.91 -58.61 -0.64%

Dow 15,445.24 +72.44 +0.47%

Nasdaq 4,031.52 +34.56 +0.86%

S&P 500 1,755.20 +13.31 +0.76%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3518 -0,04%

GBP/USD $1,6323 +0,12%

USD/CHF Chf0,9035 +0,31%

USD/JPY Y101,63 +0,65%

EUR/JPY Y137,39 +0,60%

GBP/JPY Y165,90 +0,78%

AUD/USD $0,8923 +1,94%

NZD/USD $0,8241 +1,93%

USD/CAD C$1,1079 -0,34%

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY December +0.5% +0.7%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January -0.6% +0.4%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January +7.5% +7.3%

08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) January 48.6 48.6

08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) January 53.6 53.6

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) January 51.9 51.9

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services January 58.8 59.1

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) December +1.4% -0.7%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) December +1.6%

13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report January 238 191

13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -6.7% +2.3%

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing January 53.0 53.8

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January +6.4

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks