CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-02-2013

The euro rose against most major currencies after a representative of the European Central Bank, Jens Weidmann said that the course of the single European currency is not too overpriced. Meanwhile, he added that the policy aimed at weakening the euro will lead to inflation.

The yen approached the lowest since May 2010 against the dollar as Japan's economy minister Akira Amari told Kyodo News, the government should aggressively pursue efforts aimed at stimulating growth stocks.

Meanwhile, we add that the yen fell for the first time in four days against the euro after the Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, who is a potential candidate to head the central bank, said that he supports the implementation of additional measures to stimulate the economy country, expecting that some of them may be approved in 2013. It should be noted that the statement Kuroda suggests that it may apply more drastic measures to suppress deflation when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appointed him to head the BOJ after the resignation of Masaaki Shirakawa.

Pound fell against most major currencies after the industrial report showed that the level of trust in relation to employment in the UK fell markedly in January. Also exerted pressure on the currency speculation that confidence among traders that the exchange rate to appreciate significantly reduced.

European stocks fell, extending a two-week decline, as Novo Nordisk A/S sank the most in almost four years after failing to win U.S. approval for a new drug.

Novo Nordisk, the world’s largest insulin maker, tumbled 13 percent. Lundin Petroleum AB lost 10 percent after the company said resources at its Johan Sverdrup oil discovery in the North Sea may be toward the low end of forecasts. Royal Ahold NV rallied 3.9 percent after agreeing to sell its 60 percent stake in ICA, Sweden’s largest food retailer, for $3.1 billion.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.6 percent to 285.51 at 4:32 p.m. in London.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,277.06 +13.13 +0.21% CAC 40 3,650.58 +1.08 +0.03% DAX 7,633.74 -18.40 -0.24%

Novo Nordisk, which accounts for 0.9 percent of the Stoxx 600 by weighting, lost 139.50 kroner to 930.50 kroner, the biggest drop since April 2009. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said its Tresiba diabetes medication can’t be approved without additional data on heart safety and the Danish drugmaker won’t be able to provide the information this year, according to a statement from Novo Nordisk.

Lundin Petroleum fell 16.60 kronor to 148.30 kronor in Stockholm after saying resources in its part of the Johan Sverdrup discovery will probably be within the lower half of the forecast for 800 million to 1.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Fugro NV dropped 7.2 percent to 39.07 euros in Amsterdam after supervisory board Vice Chairman Frans Cremers quit the biggest deepwater-oilfield surveyor. The company said in a statement that changes in financial organisation of Fugro “were not adequately carried through.”

Wacker Chemie AG increased 9.4 percent to 60.78 euros after the polysilicon maker ramped up production at a plant in Burghausen, Germany, citing growing demand from its solar-power customers. The company had put about 700 employees at the plan on shorter hours in October.

Bilfinger SE gained 2.5 percent to 75.80 euros after Germany’s second-largest construction company forecast an increase in profit in 2013, driven by savings and demands for engineering work and services in the power industry. The company reported a 2 percent gain in sales last year to 8.64 billion euros.

Oil prices fell today below $ 118 per barrel as investor concern about the euro zone economy has shifted to a higher-than-expected growth in demand in China.

Recall that the price of Brent crude reached a nine-month high on Friday after data showed that China's trade volume rose in January.

Meanwhile, we note that, in connection with the celebration of the Lunar New Year, many Asian markets will be closed this week.

Analysts also point out that while the growth in Chinese demand support oil prices, developments in the euro area continue to put pressure on stocks and the euro. In addition, the corruption scandal that threatens political instability in Spain and Italy during the presidential race is getting tougher.

Experts also say that traders will closely monitor the data on U.S. retail sales and production volumes, which will be presented at the end of this, and who can point to further signs of economic growth in the world's largest economy.

In addition, oil prices could get some support from the stormy weather in the densely populated northeastern United States, resulting in hundreds of thousands of people sit without electricity.

March futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 96.37 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 57 cents to $ 118.30 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices declined substantially while still achieving the most minimal values ​​for the month, which was due to speculation that physical demand will slow during the Lunar New, who this week celebrated in Asia. Also, the pressure on the precious metal have expectations of tomorrow's meeting the Board of European finance ministers, which is projected to be discussed on financial aid to Cyprus and Greece.

Meanwhile, analysts also note that, given the lack of activity on the part of the Chinese market, which is associated with the holiday, demand from other regions may have a significant downward pressure on prices, thus exposing the precious metal to sharp fluctuations.

In addition, experts say that the lack of physical demand, along with worries about Europe, and led to today's decline in the value of gold.

At the same time, if we evaluate the situation from a technical point of view, we can see the price of the precious metal fell today 200-day MA, which is a strong signal to the market. Analysts also point out that the decline today was exaggerated technical weakness, but trading volume was 33% higher than the average for the last 100 days.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1661.60 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures were little changed as euro-area finance ministers prepared to meet to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece.

Global Stocks:

Sold E7.59bln vs target E6.4bln-E7.6bln

- E3.995bln 3-month BTF, avg yield 0.012% (0.011%), cover 2.18 (2.10)

- E1.701bln 6-month BTF, avg yield 0.048% (0.047%), cover 3.23 (2.67)

- E1.894bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.145% (0.162%), cover 3.62 (3.71)

Other:
Mizuho was reiterate Cisco Systems (CSCO) at Buy, target raised from $23 to $25

EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3400, $1.3500, $1.3550

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.50, Y92.75, Y93.00, Y93.50, Y94.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8500, stg0.8600, stg0.8625, stg0.8660

USD/CHF Chf0.9150, Chf0.9245

EUR/CHF Chf1.2320

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0400

07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m December +0.5% -0.3% -0.1%

07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y December -3.6% -2.1% -2.1%

09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -

The yen fell toward the weakest since May 2010 versus the dollar as Japanese officials signaled their commitment to policies that may cause it to depreciate.

Japan’s currency slid versus all of its 16 major peers after Economy Minister Akira Amari was reported by Kyodo News as saying the government should persevere with efforts to boost stocks. The yen slid for the first time in four days against the euro after Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, a potential candidate to head the central bank, suggested he favors greater stimulus.

The euro rose before ministers from the currency bloc meet to discuss aid for Cyprus and Greece. Euro-area finance ministers might discuss the euro’s exchange rate at tonight’s meeting in Brussels, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said.

The Group of Seven nations are considering releasing a statement on exchange rates this week to calm concern the world is on the brink of a currency war, three officials from G-7 countries said. The current draft wording contains a commitment to market-set exchange rates and an agreement that governments don’t use fiscal or monetary policy to drive currencies, the official said.

The G-7 is looking to release the statement before a Feb. 15-16 meeting in Moscow of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20, which includes the G-7 and emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.3412

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.5668

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair rose to a maximum of Y93.44

At 15:00 GMT the United States will share of overdue mortgage payments for the 4th quarter. At 20:30 GMT New Zealand publish house price index from REINZ, changes in the volume of home sales from REINZ for January.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3480, $1.3450/60, $1.3425/30

Bids $1.3350, $1.3325/15, $1.3300

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5840/50, $1.5820, $1.5800/10, $1.5770/80

Bids $1.5685/80, $1.5630

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0345/50, $1.0295/00

Bids $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0150, $1.0110/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y126.20, Y126.00, Y125.80/90, Y125.45/50

Bids Y124.50/40, Y124.00, Y123.85/80 , Y123.55/50 , Y123.20

USD/JPY

Offers Y94.50, Y94.25, Y93.90/00, Y93.70, Y93.50

Bids Y93.05/00, Y92.60/50, Y92.40/35, Y92.30/25, Y92.10, Y92.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8600/10, stg0.8580, stg0.8565/70, stg0.8545/50

Bids stg0.8425/20, stg0.8400

- Stabilization in EMU, Italy, Germany; France to stay weak

- Below-trend growth seen in China, India, Canada, Russia

- OECD December leading indicator +0.11 point m/m to 100.4

European stocks pared their decline as insurance companies and utilities climbed.

Ministers from the 17-member euro area meet today to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece as a tightening election contest in Italy and a political scandal in Spain threaten to reignite the region’s debt crisis. Group of 20 finance chiefs and central bankers will gather in Moscow on Friday.

European companies from Barclays Plc to Total SA and Heineken NV are due to report earnings this week, data show. Stoxx 600 members are forecast to increase dividends by 1.8 percent in 2013, according to analysts’ estimates.

Companies around the world are rewarding shareholders with the highest dividends in more than two decades compared with bond interest payments. Companies in the MSCI World Index paid an average 2.7 percent of their share price in dividends as of last week, according to data. That compares with the 2.6 percent yield on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Corporate Index of investment-grade bonds and 6.1 percent for securities in the Barclays Global High-Yield Index.

Novo Nordisk A/S, the world’s largest insulin maker, plunged the most in almost four years in Copenhagen after failing to win U.S. approval for a new insulin. Sanofi, which produces a rival drug, jumped 4.3 percent.

Royal Ahold NV rallied 4.1 percent after agreeing to sell its 60 percent stake in ICA, Sweden’s largest food retailer, for $3.1 billion.

FTSE 100 6,280.37 +16.44 +0.26%

CAC 40 3,666.23 +16.73 +0.46%

DAX 7,661.2 +9.06 +0.12%

France's industrial production decreased at a slower rate in December, in line with economists' expectations, data released by statistical office Insee showed Monday.

Industrial production declined 2.1 percent on an annual basis in December, which matched economists' expectations. The rate of fall was faster than the 3.8 percent fall seen in November.

On a monthly basis, industrial production edged down a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in December, reversing the previous month's 0.5 percent increase.

Driving the overall contraction, manufacturing production fell 3.9 percent annually, faster than the 1.4 percent fall economists had forecast.

Month-on-month, factory output decreased 0.1 percent during the month, as it did in November. Economists had forecast a faster decline of 0.3 percent, data showed.

EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3500, $1.3550

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.50, Y92.75, Y93.00, Y93.50, Y94.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8625, stg0.8660

USD/CHF Chf0.9150, Chf0.9245

EUR/CHF Chf1.2320

AUD/USD $1.0400

Asian stocks turned in a mixed performance on Monday as investors awaited earnings for direction amid public holidays in several key financial markets. Many markets across the Asia-Pacific region, including those in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines were closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. The Japanese market was shut for the National Foundation Day. South Korea, Japan and the Philippines will resume trading on Tuesday, while Singapore and Malaysia will return to action on Wednesday. Hong Kong will resume trading on Thursday, while China and Taiwan are off until next Monday.

Nikkei 225 Closed

Hang Seng Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,959.5 -11.79 -0.24%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Global miner BHP Billiton slipped 0.6 percent and rival Rio Tinto edged down 0.2 percent as base metal prices eased.

Among the major banks, Westpac shed 0.4 percent and ANZ declined 1.2 percent, while NAB rose 0.2 percent and Commonwealth added half a percent.

Insurance Australia Group slipped 0.4 percent after the company said it has received more than 13,700 claims relating to the impact of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald to date.

The yen rose against the dollar, retreating with the highest level since March 2011, after Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters recently, reducing the rate of the national currency was too fast. He added that the government did not expect a sudden drop in rate to 90 yen per dollar. Note also that the yen is sent to its first weekly gain in two months against the euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled yesterday that further reductions in interest rates in the region ostaetsya possible.

The Australian dollar rose for the first time in four days against the dollar after the Chinese government announced that exports grew in 2012 by 25 percent compared to the previous year, while imports increased by 28.8%. Recall that China is the largest trading partner of Australia.

Pound went to his highest weekly gain in the last two against the euro on speculation that the Bank of England will refrain from increasing its sumi incentive program.

Sterling rose against the U.S. dollar as market participants are awaiting data on producer prices and retail sales. Recall also that the future of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said that the current monetary policy may be enough to help the economy, while the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the policy will remain accommodative.

Most Asian stocks fell, paring this week’s advance, after Sony Corp. posted an unexpected loss and the European Central Bank said the euro’s strength could hamper an economic recovery, damping the profit outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 11,153.16 -203.91 -1.80%

Hang Seng 23,215.16 +38.16 +0.16%

S&P/ASX 200 4,971.3 +35.59 +0.72%

Shanghai Composite 2,432.4 +13.87 +0.57%

Sony tumbled 10 percent after posting an eighth-straight quarterly loss and cutting sales targets for TVs, gaming devices and cameras.

GS Engineering & Construction Corp. lost 7 percent in Seoul, among the biggest declines on the Asian benchmark, after reporting a fourth-quarter loss.

Fujitsu Ltd., a Japanese maker of computers, network equipment and mobile phones, gained 5.1 percent after saying it will eliminate 5,000 jobs and merge its LSI chip business with Panasonic Corp.

European stocks advanced the most in a month, paring a weekly decline, as trade data from China exceeded estimates and European Union leaders agreed the first- ever cuts to the bloc’s budget.

China’s exports and imports rose more than estimated in a January that had five working days more than last year, a report showed. Exports increased 25 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said, compared with economists’ projection of 17.5 percent. Imports climbed 28.8 percent, exceeding the 23.5 percent median estimate.

EU leaders agreed to a seven-year budget that cuts spending for the first time, bowing to U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s insistence on thrift. The deal was struck after 25 1/2 hours of talks in Brussels, according to a post on Twitter by EU PresidentHerman Van Rompuy today. While he didn’t disclose a figure, the final draft blueprint for 2014-2020 included a spending ceiling of 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), down from an original proposal of 1.047 trillion euros and less than the 994 billion euros spent in the current budget cycle.

National benchmark indexes advanced in all of the 18 western European markets except Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.6 percent, France’s CAC 40 rose 1.4 percent and Germany’s DAX added 0.8 percent.

Software AG advanced 76 cents to 29.23 euros. Germany’s second-biggest software maker said late yesterday it will spend as much as 180 million euros buying back shares.

Credit Agricole rallied 6.9 percent to 7.35 euros, the most since Oct. 1. BNP Paribas raised its recommendation on France’s third-largest bank to buy from hold, citing the improved credibility of management and higher solvency than estimated.

BNP Paribas added 2.4 percent to 44.60 euros after Bank of America advised buying the shares, saying the lender’s results should confirm it has enough capital to support growth.

Telecom Italia slipped 1.3 percent to 66 euro cents, its lowest price since August, after reporting 2012 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 11.7 billion euros. Analysts on average had estimated 11.8 billion euros.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since November 2007, as corporate earnings topped estimates and European leaders reached a budget agreement.

The positive tone of trading data is set on the U.S. trade balance, the lack of which in December was the lowest since the beginning of 2010 ($ 38.5 billion versus $ 48.6 billion in November, and the average forecast $ 48.5 billion).

Positive on the index also reflected published this morning, the Chinese economic data, which recorded less significant than expected reduction of positive trade balance (with $ 31.6 billion in December to $ 29.2 billion in January, is expected to decline to $ 24.3 billion), and a reduction in inflationary pressures (index Consumer prices in January fell to 2.0% from 2.5% in December and 2.1% expected).

Also came out better than expected trade balance of Germany, whose economy is the largest in the eurozone (surplus rose to the level of 16.8 billion euros against 14.6 billion value of the November Euro and the average forecast of analysts of 13.7 billion euros).

Support indices have also had reports that the leaders of the European Union reached an agreement on the budget for 2014-2020 years. Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy said the summit identified within budget before the end of the decade in the amount of € 960 billion initially it was about € 1,09 trillion. Contributions of the EU, which make up a large part of the budget, amount to € 908 billion

Most of the components of the index surged DOW (21 of 30). More than others in the share price fell Boeing Co. (BA, -1.12%). Leader was led Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +2.62%).

All sectors of the S & P showed an increase. More than other technology sector rose (+0.7%).

Internet portal LinkedIn, uniting people on a professional basis, increased its market capitalization by 21.3% after reported a quarterly profit and sales that beat analysts' expectations. Thus, profit excluding some items was 35 cents per share, and revenue increased by 81% to $ 303.6 million, while the market on average forecast 19 cents per share and $ 279.7 million respectively.

Shares of the largest U.S. video game developer Activision Blizzard strengthened by 11.2% due to a more than threefold increase in net quarterly profit that beat analysts' average expectations of Wall Street because of the successful sales of the latest "Skylanders" and "Call of Duty".

At the close:

S & P 500 1,517.93 +8.54 +0.57%

NASDAQ 3,193.87 +28.74 +0.91%

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

00:00 China Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia Home Loans December -0.7% +0.1% -1.5%

The euro touched a two-week low against the dollar on signs the region’s economy is slowing amid political uncertainty in Italy and Spain. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has faced calls to resign after newspaper reports alleged he accepted illegal cash payments. Opinion polls have shown former Italy Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who was convicted of tax fraud last October, closing the gap on front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani ahead of elections on Feb. 24-25.

The 17-nation currency held a three-day loss versus the yen before data forecast to show industrial production in France fell and with finance chiefs from the bloc set to meet in Brussels to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece. Industrial production in France, Europe’s second-largest economy, probably declined 0.2 percent in December from the previous month, when it rose 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the statistics office releases data today.

The yen rose after snapping 12 weeks of declines. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the currency has been dropping too rapidly before Group of 20 finance chiefs meet this week. The yen’s 14 percent drop against the U.S. dollar in the past three months has spurred criticism from South Korea to Russia that Japan is competitively devaluing its currency. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 nations are scheduled to gather in Moscow Feb. 15-16.

The Australian dollar traded near the lowest since October. The statistics bureau said in Sydney today the number of loans granted to build or buy houses and apartments declined 1.5 percent in December from the previous month when they fell a revised 0.7 percent.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3360-80.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5805.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y92.35-75.

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

00:00 China Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia Home Loans December -0.7% +0.1% -1.5%

07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m December +0.5% -0.3%

07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y December -3.6% -2.1%

09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -

18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks -

20:30 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m January -0.6%