CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-02-2013

European stocks fell, almost cutting off with early growth, at a time when that public survey in Italy showed that the anti-rigid economic campaign Berlusconi has led to its popularity.

The cost of UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA fell, causing a fall while Italian shares. Shares of Vinci SA, the largest builder in Europe fell by 3.3% after a report for 2012, which showed a decrease in yield. ArcelorMittal price rose by 1.1 percent. Volvo AB shares jumped 4.2%, despite the fact that profits fell in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the company said that according to their projections for the North American and European markets will improve this year.

Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 284.52 at the close, although he had previously showed growth of 0.4%.

National indexes fell in 14 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,295.34 +12.58 +0.20%, CAC 40 3,642.9 -51.80 -1.40%, DAX 7,581.18 -83.48 -1.09%

Cost Vinci fell to 35.41 euros after the company said that net income from sales was reduced to 5% from 5.2% a year earlier.

ArcelorMittal shares rose to 12.56 euros euros, after it became known that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization decreased in the fourth quarter to $ 1.32 billion, up from $ 1.71 billion a year earlier, and expectations at $ 1.25 billion.

Hargreaves Lansdown price jumped by 11% to 817 pence while still achieving record prices. It is learned that in the first-half profit before tax was 93.7 million pounds ($ 147 million), exceeding analysts' forecast at 91 million pounds.

Oil fluctuated in New York as U.S. inventories climbed last week while stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the futures, fell.

Crude oil for March delivery rose to $96.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $95.04 before the release of the inventory report by the Energy Information Administration. Trading was 98 percent above the 100-day average for this time of day. Futures are up 5 percent this year.

Brent oil for March settlement gained 30 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $116.82 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent volume was 42 percent above the 100-day average.

Today, the value of gold held within yesterday's range in the absence of significant data from the U.S.

Gold futures fell on the results of trading on Tuesday against the fact that the increase in prices on the U.S. stock markets forced investors to withdraw funds from this precious metal. Gold is considered a safe-haven from risk and an alternative to paper currencies. However, the strong growth of risky assets such as stocks, putting pressure on the price of them in the last week in light of the fact that investors have reduced their gold portfolios in search of higher returns in other markets.

Spanish and Italian bonds rebounded after the sale on Tuesday, bringing relief to investors who feared that political problems in these countries hinder the fight against the debt crisis in the eurozone.

The market is waiting for the European Central Bank statement after the meeting on Thursday.

April futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1683.40 dollars an ounce, and then dropped to 1680.40 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures fell as investors awaited a European Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow, offsetting corporate earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.

Shares of Walt Disney Co. climbed after sales topped estimates and its interactive unit posted its first profit since 2009. Shares Shares of Hewlett-Packard Co. rode after a report the company may be studying a breakup.

Global Stocks:

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3600, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y93.00, Y93.25, Y93.50

GBP/USD $1.5630, $1.5700, $1.5800

Data

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) December -0.1% +0.3% -0.2%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +3.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January +1.3% -0.2% -0.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January -0.3% +1.6% +1.3%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -1.8% +0.8% +0.8%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) December -0.9% -1.2% -1.8%

The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, reaching with one-week low, as many market participants are waiting for the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will be held tomorrow.

The single currency fell against most of its 16 major currencies, against the fact that the Prime Minister of Spain, faced opposition calls to resign, and the expectations of investors report losses for 2008 and 2009 of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA.

The yen weakened to a 32-month low against the dollar on speculation that the new head of the Central Bank of Japan will increase monetary easing supporter.

Pound fluctuates within a narrow range against the dollar, which is associated with the published data today which showed that house prices in Britain registered in January its first annual increase since October 2010, increasing by 1.3%. However, despite a marked improvement, the value of this indicator was below analysts' expectations of 1.6%. Note also that on a monthly basis the cost of housing fell by 0.2%, in line with the fall, which was celebrated last month, and coincided with the estimates of experts. At the same time, Halifax noticed signs of improvement, which occurred in the housing market at the end of 2012 is likely to remain in the new year.

The Australian dollar fell against all but one of the 16 major currencies, as released today, retail sales were worse than analysts' expectations. It provokes new calls to reduce the interest rate RBA. Rate in December fell by 0.2% against November. This was heard reports the Australian Bureau of Statistics, while economists had expected retail sales to increase by 0.5%. A small increase of 0.1% in the fourth quarter was also significantly lower than the expected 0.5% growth.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.3498

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5631, but later rose to the maximum session at $ 1.5677

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair is trading in a narrow range, demonstrating a slight decrease

An important event is the output from the Ivey PMI index of Canada in January, to be released at 15:00 GMT. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in the number of employed and the unemployment rate for the 4th quarter. Finish the day at 23:50 GMT Japan, announced a change in orders for machinery and equipment in December.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3650, $1.3610-25, $1.3600, $1.3560/65, $1.3550

Bids $1.3500, $1.3485/80, $1.3460/40, $1.3420, $1.3400

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5720/30, $1.5700, $1.5680/85

Bids  $1.5630, $1.5610/00, $1.5580/70

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0455/60, $1.0435/40, $1.0420/25, $1.0375/80

Bids  $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0150, $1.0110/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y128.50, Y128.00, Y127.70/75, Y127.25/30

Bids  Y126.55/50, Y126.00, Y125.80/70, Y125.50, Y125.30/20, Y125.05/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y94.75, Y94.50, Y94.30, Y94.25

Bids Y93.65/60, Y93.30, Y93.00, Y92.65/60, Y92.40/35

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8720, stg0.8700

Bids stg0.8610/00, stg0.8585/80, stg0.8555, stg0.8545/40, stg0.8525/20, stg0.8500

Mixed trends stock indexes in Europe demonstrate against the controversial publication of investors' expectations of quarterly reports ArcelorMittal, Volvo AB, Vinci SA.

To date:

FTSE 100 6,313.94 +31.18 +0.50%

DAX 7,670.84 +6.18 +0.08%

CAC 3,684.92 -7.94 -0.28%

ArcelorMittal shares were up 2.3%. While net loss in 2012 amounted to 3.73 billion dollars against a net profit of 2.26 billion dollars in 2011.

Volvo AB capitalization grew by 3.8%, but the profit of the company was worse than expected.

Market quotes Vinci SA fell 2.4% after publishing a report on reducing profitability in 2012. In addition, the company expects revenue growth in 2013.

The market value of Syngenta fell 2%, while net income for the year was $ 1.87 billion, which beat analysts' forecasts $ 1.82 billion

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3600, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y93.00, Y93.25, Y93.50

GBP/USD $1.5630, $1.5700, $1.5800

Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closing at the highest in four years, as Toyota Motor Corp. raised its profit forecast and the yen weakened, boosting the earnings outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 11,463.75 +416.83 +3.77%

Hang Seng 23,256.93 +108.40 +0.47%

S&P/ASX 200 4,920.95 +38.23 +0.78%

Shanghai Composite 2,434.48 +1.35 +0.06%

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, jumped 6.1 percent after increasing its profit forecast to a five-year high.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. paced gains among lenders as the yen traded near the weakest level in almost three years on speculation Japan will hasten the selection of a new central bank chief who will take further steps to end deflation.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. led Macau casinos lower as the U.K.’s Times newspaper said China will crack down on junket operators.

Asian stocks fell, dragging the regional benchmark equities index down from an 18-month high, amid renewed concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 11,046.92 -213.43 -1.90%

Hang Seng 23,148.53 -536.48 -2.27%

S&P/ASX 200 4,882.72 -24.80 -0.51%

Shanghai Composite 2,433.13 +4.98 +0.20%

Konica Minolta Holdings Inc., a Japanese maker of imaging equipment that gets 28 percent of its sales in Europe, dropped 3.1 percent.

Macquarie Group Ltd. lost 4.1 percent amid concern full-year earnings may trail the Australian lender’s forecast.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. fell 6.6 percent in Hong Kong after Asia’s biggest refiner said it plans to sell shares worth HK$24 billion ($3.1 billion) at a discount.

European stocks climbed the most in almost four weeks as companies from Munich Re to BP Plc beat earnings estimates and a measure of euro-area services output shrank less than forecast.

An index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services industry of the 17 countries that use the euro rose to 48.6 in January from 47.8 in December, Markit Economics said in a report today. The London-based research company had initially estimated a reading of 48.3 for the measure. A reading below 50 means that activity contracted.

About 55 percent of the 151 western European companies that have reported earnings since Jan. 8 beat analysts’ projections for profit, according to data. Of the 177 that have posted sales, 54 percent exceeded forecasts.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.6 percent and France’s CAC 40 jumped 1 percent. Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4 percent.

Munich Re rose 3.9 percent to 138.95 euros after saying it will increase its dividend for 2012 to 7 euros a share from 6.25 euros. The company also reported preliminary net income of 480 million euros, beating the 448.3 million-euro average estimate of 10 analysts. It made a profit of 627 million euros a year earlier.

BP Plc added 1.4 percent to 468.7 pence. Europe’s second- largest oil producer reported earnings adjusted for one-off items and changes in inventory of $4 billion, more than the $3.7 billion average estimate of 16 analysts.

KPN slumped 16 percent to 3.45 euros after the biggest phone company in the Netherlands posted a fourth-quarter net loss of 162 million euros. The average estimate of eight analysts had predicted a profit of 362 million euros. KPN spent 1.35 billion euros at an auction of wireless spectrum during the quarter.

U.S. stocks had trades in positive territory and were able to compensate for most of yesterday's losses.

News background was neutral today. Support indices were data on the index of business activity in the service sector in China and several European countries, which were better than expected, but at the same time does not meet the expectations of retail sales in the eurozone. Data on the index of business activity in the U.S. service went as expected (55.2), so a significant impact on the index, they did not have. Meanwhile, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector ISM following last month fell from 60.8 to 56.4, although expected to be much less significant decline.

The markets bounced back after yesterday's decline. Sentiment in the market was dominated by positive quarterly reports of companies, as a whole, came out better than expected.

For futures on the S & P is an important area of ​​support for 1490-1500. While futures remain above this area, the chances of continued upward trend remain high. If futures fall below will be reason to talk about the beginning of correction after the strong growth at the beginning of this year.

Among the components of the index DOW only stock United Technologies (UTX, -0.31%) and International Business Machines (IBM, -0.49%) suffered losses. More than 3% added shares Bank of America (BAC, +3.48%) and Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (UNH, +3.62%).

All sectors of the S & P finished trading in the green zone. Smaller than the other conglomerates sector rose (+0.1%).

Pay-TV provider Virgin Media has jumped by 17.9% on the news of the start of negotiations with the company Liberty Global on a possible takeover.

Developer of games for social networks Zynga left in plus 7% after analysts at Bank of America upgraded the stock from "Underperform" to "buy."

At the close:

S & P 500 1,511.29 +15.58 +1.04%

NASDAQ 3,171.58 +40.41 +1.29%

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) December -0.1% +0.3% -0.2%

The yen weakened to 94 per dollar for the first time since May 2010 on speculation Japan’s government will hasten the selection of a new central bank chief to take further steps to end deflation. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will present his candidate for the next BOJ governor to opposition parties after a visit to the U.S. this month, public broadcaster NHK reported today, without saying where it got the information.

Japan’s currency added to yesterday’s biggest drop versus the euro in more than a week after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down on March 19, almost three weeks before his term is due to end.

Demand for the 17- nation euro was supported on prospects the European Central Bank will refrain from easing monetary policy tomorrow. In Europe, the ECB, which has held its main refinancing rate at 0.75 percent since July, will probably make no change at tomorrow’s policy meeting, according to all 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Government data due today are forecast to show German factory orders rose 0.7 percent in December from November, when they dropped 1.8 percent, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News poll.

The Australian dollar slid after data showed the nation’s retail sales unexpectedly fell in December. Retail sales in Australia fell 0.2 percent in December from the previous month, when they dropped a revised 0.2 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists for a 0.3 percent gain.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3570-95.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.5650-65.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose above Y94.00.

There is a very limited calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday. The European calendar kicks off at 0745GMT, with the release of the French PPI data for December. At 0900GMT, the SMMT January car registration data will be released. At 1100GMT, the German December manufacturing orders data will cross the wires. Factory orders are seen up 0.7% m/m and down 1.7% on year. Germany re-opens its 5-year benchmark 0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl for up to E4.0bln. There is only limited UK data, starting with the release of the Halifax house price index data for January. Traders are looking for a further uptick, underlining recent improvements seen in other indices. Expectations are for a rise of 0.1% on month and 1.6% on a 3 mo y/y basis. At 0900GMT, the SMMT January car registration data will be released.

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,674 -2 -0.09%

Oil 96.65 +0.48 +0.50%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,046.92 -213.43 -1.90%

Hang Seng 23,148.53 -536.48 -2.27%

S&P/ASX 200 4,882.72 -24.80 -0.51%

Shanghai Composite 2,433.13 +4.98 +0.20%

CAC 40 3,694.7 +34.79 +0.95%

DAX 7,664.66 +26.43 +0.35%

S&P 500 1,511.29 +15.58 +1.04%

NASDAQ 3,171.58 +40.41 +1.29%

Dow 13,979.3 +99.22 +0.71%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3582 +0,52%

GBP/USD $1,5657 -0,68%

USD/CHF Chf0,9082 0,00%

USD/JPY Y93,63 +1,35%

EUR/JPY Y127,15 +1,84%

GBP/JPY Y146,58 +0,70%

AUD/USD $1,0388 -0,47%

NZD/USD $0,8446 +0,18%

USD/CAD C$0,9954 -0,32%

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) December -0.1% +0.3%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +3.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January +1.3% -0.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January -0.3% +1.6%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -1.8% +0.8%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) December -1.0% -1.2%

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index January 52.8 53.2

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +5.9

21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate IV quarter 7.3% 7.1%

21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q IV quarter -0.4% +0.4%