CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-02-2013

European stocks advanced the most in a month, paring a weekly decline, as trade data from China exceeded estimates and European Union leaders agreed the first- ever cuts to the bloc’s budget.

China’s exports and imports rose more than estimated in a January that had five working days more than last year, a report showed. Exports increased 25 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said, compared with economists’ projection of 17.5 percent. Imports climbed 28.8 percent, exceeding the 23.5 percent median estimate.

EU leaders agreed to a seven-year budget that cuts spending for the first time, bowing to U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s insistence on thrift. The deal was struck after 25 1/2 hours of talks in Brussels, according to a post on Twitter by EU PresidentHerman Van Rompuy today. While he didn’t disclose a figure, the final draft blueprint for 2014-2020 included a spending ceiling of 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), down from an original proposal of 1.047 trillion euros and less than the 994 billion euros spent in the current budget cycle.

National benchmark indexes advanced in all of the 18 western European markets except Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.6 percent, France’s CAC 40 rose 1.4 percent and Germany’s DAX added 0.8 percent.

Software AG advanced 76 cents to 29.23 euros. Germany’s second-biggest software maker said late yesterday it will spend as much as 180 million euros buying back shares.

Credit Agricole rallied 6.9 percent to 7.35 euros, the most since Oct. 1. BNP Paribas raised its recommendation on France’s third-largest bank to buy from hold, citing the improved credibility of management and higher solvency than estimated.

BNP Paribas added 2.4 percent to 44.60 euros after Bank of America advised buying the shares, saying the lender’s results should confirm it has enough capital to support growth.

Telecom Italia slipped 1.3 percent to 66 euro cents, its lowest price since August, after reporting 2012 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 11.7 billion euros. Analysts on average had estimated 11.8 billion euros.

The Bank of France predicted a modest growth for the first quarter, following a possible contraction in the previous three months.

In its monthly business survey report, the bank said it expects gross domestic product to increase 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013. Last month, the bank estimated a 0.1 percent economic contraction for the fourth quarter of 2012.

The French economy expanded by a modest 0.1 percent in the third quarter, after 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter of 2012.

The survey also showed that the business confidence index for the French industry rose to 95 in January from December's downwardly revised 94. Economists had expected the index to fall to 93. Business sentiment improved for the second straight month.

The confidence index for the services sector held steady at 90 in January, unchanged from December. Both manufacturing and services are expected to log some improvement in February.

Brent crude surged to a nine-month high in London while oil in New York rose after stronger-than- expected trade data from China signaled increased fuel demand in the world’s second-biggest consuming country.

West Texas Intermediate oil in New York trailed Brent’s gain, boosting the European benchmark grade’s premium for an eighth day. China’s exports rose 25 percent in January from a year earlier and crude imports increased to the highest level in eight months, customs figures showed. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said oil markets will “remain tight” in the first quarter and may push prices above its forecasts.

China bought 24.87 million metric tons of crude more than it exported last month, according to data published today on the website of the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs. That’s equivalent to 5.88 million barrels a day, the most since May, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Brent oil for March settlement gained $1.62, or 1.4 percent, to $118.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract increased as much as 1.4 percent to $118.92, the highest level since May 2. The volume of all futures traded was 32 percent higher than the 100-day average

WTI oil for March delivery rose 49 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $96.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained as much as 0.8 percent to $96.57. Volume was 28 percent more than the 100-day average. Prices are down 1.5 percent this week, after advancing 14 percent over the prior eight weeks.

Gold prices traded within yesterday's range after the fall of the previous day.

Support prices have rise in stock markets and the unexpectedly high rates of China foreign trade in January. China's exports and imports grew above expectations and pointing to strong domestic demand and sustained economic recovery.

Chinese markets will be closed next week on the occasion of New Year and will be opened on February 18.

In addition, the purchasing sentiment largely contributed to the favorable statistics of the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services, which fell in December from a revised $ 48.61 billion the previous month to $ 38.54 billion, while the market on average expected a deficit of $ 46 , 0 billion

In the past year, China has increased its gold production sixth consecutive year to a record of 403 tonnes, while maintaining global leadership on this indicator, said Thursday edition of Shanghai Securities News.

April futures price of gold on COMEX today is trading in the range of 1665.80 - 1674.30 dollars per ounce.

Greece's consumer prices rose at a slower annual pace for the third consecutive month in January.

The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.2 percent year-on-year, the lowest since the series began in 2001, following a 0.8 percent rise in December, data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority showed Friday. In November, inflation was 1 percent.

Month-on-month, prices declined 1.4 percent in January, after a 0.3 percent fall in December. It was the third monthly decline in a row.

Prices of clothing and footwear logged the biggest monthly decline of 15.3 percent, followed by those of household equipment, down 3.6 percent. Prices also decreased in the health, communication, recreation and culture, education, and hotels and cafés.

Resistance 3:1696 (high of ​​January)

Resistance 2:1684 (area of lows of current and last week)

Resistance 1:1678 (MA (50) for D1)

Current Price: 1669.10 (+0.04%)

Support 1: 1663 (area of MA(200) for D1 and weekly low)

Support 2: 1643 (Jan 7 low)

U.S. stock futures slightly rose as investors weighed corporate earnings and a report showing the trade deficit narrowed more than forecast.

Global Stocks:

Walt Disney (DIS) target raised to $65 from $60 at Argus

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3505, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3750

USD/JPY Y93.00, Y93.50, Y93.60

GBP/USD $1.5650, $1.5700, $1.5720, $1.5750, $1.5800

EUR/GBP stg0.8630, stg0.8650

USD/CHF Chf0.9100

AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0435

AUD/JPY Y96.50

Data

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter I

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks -

02:30 China Trade Balance, bln January 31.6 24.3 29.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 45.8 48.2 49.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 51.0 56.5

05:30 China CPI y/y January +2.5% +2.1% +2.0%

05:30 China PPI y/y January -1.9% -1.6% -1.6%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate January 3.0% 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance December 14.6 13.7 16.8

07:00 Germany Current Account December 15.3 17.0 17.3

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December +3.0% +3.2% +5.1%

The yen rose against the dollar, retreating with the highest level since March 2011, after Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters recently, reducing the rate of the national currency was too fast. He added that the government did not expect a sudden drop in rate to 90 yen per dollar. Note also that the yen is sent to its first weekly gain in two months against the euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled yesterday that further reductions in interest rates in the region ostaetsya possible.

The Australian dollar rose for the first time in four days against the dollar after the Chinese government announced that exports grew in 2012 by 25 percent compared to the previous year, while imports increased by 28.8%. Recall that China is the largest trading partner of Australia.

Pound went to his highest weekly gain in the last two against the euro on speculation that the Bank of England will refrain from increasing its sumi incentive program.

Sterling rose against the U.S. dollar as market participants are awaiting data on producer prices and retail sales. Recall also that the future of the Bank of England yesterday, Mark Carney said that the current monetary policy may be enough to help the economy, while the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the policy will remain accommodative.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to high of $ 1.3428, but is now trading down at $ 1.3388

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5805

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y92.15

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3480, $1.3450/60, $1.3430

Bids $1.3370, $1.3355/50, $1.3340, $1.3320, $1.3300

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5840/50, $1.5820, $1.5800/10, $1.5770/80

Bids $1.5700, $1.5685/80, $1.5630

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0435/40, $1.0420/25, $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0345/50

Bids $1.0300, $1.0260/50, $1.0200, $1.0150

EUR/JPY

Offers Y126.00, Y125.80/90, Y125.45/50, Y124.85/90

Bids Y123.55/50 , Y123.20, Y123.00, Y122.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y93.90/00, Y93.70, Y93.50, Y93.20

Bids Y92.00, Y91.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8600/10, stg0.8570, stg0.8545/50

Bids stg0.8500, stg0.8480/70, stg0.8460

Resistance 3: Y94.95 (May 4 and 5 2010 high)

Resistance 2: Y94.05 (February 6 high)

Resistance 1: Y93.23 (MA (100) for H1)

Current price: Y92.29

Support 1: Y91.96 (February 5 low)

Support 2: Y91.41 (January 30 high)

Support 3: Y90.94 (MA (100) for H1)

Comments: As can be seen, the pair declined substantially, departing from the established high yesterday. It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) at D1), fell below 70, which indicates a possible drop in the pair.

European stock indices show growth on positive data on Chinese trade exceeded analysts' projections, as well as due to the fact that EU leaders at a summit on February 7-8 will try for the second time in recent months to agree on a draft budget for the next block of seven years.

One of the major issues of concern to experts before the summit: how far are willing to go France and Italy, to meet the requirements of the UK on further reducing the cost of 30 billion euros from the last version of the proposed - 973 billion euros (without extra costs). The only point on which all parties are willing to agree, this is any reductions mainly affect the "Expenditures on growth and competitiveness," the European Union.

The focus of the market is today publication of data on the labor market in Canada.

To date:

FTSE 100 6,250.78 +22.36 +0.36%

DAX 7,596.39 +5.54 +0.07%

CAC 3,617.34 +15.24 +0.46%

Hugo Boss AG shares rose 1.3% after reporting fourth-quarter results that exceeded analysts' estimates.

The market value of Alcatel-Lucent rose 3.3% after analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded the company.

Market quotes Telecom Italia fell 1.4% after EBITDA, whose results were worse than forecast.

Capitalization of PSA Peugeot Citroen fell by 3.6% due to the fact that the company, the results for 2012 will include a write-off in the amount of 4.13 billion euros.

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3505, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3750

USD/JPY Y93.00, Y93.50, Y93.60

GBP/USD $1.5650, $1.5700, $1.5720, $1.5750, $1.5800

EUR/GBP stg0.8630, stg0.8650

USD/CHF Chf0.9100

AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0435

AUD/JPY Y96.50

Most Asian stocks fell, paring this week’s advance, after Sony Corp. posted an unexpected loss and the European Central Bank said the euro’s strength could hamper an economic recovery, damping the profit outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 11,153.16 -203.91 -1.80%

Hang Seng 23,215.16 +38.16 +0.16%

S&P/ASX 200 4,971.3 +35.59 +0.72%

Shanghai Composite 2,432.4 +13.87 +0.57%

Sony tumbled 10 percent after posting an eighth-straight quarterly loss and cutting sales targets for TVs, gaming devices and cameras.

GS Engineering & Construction Corp. lost 7 percent in Seoul, among the biggest declines on the Asian benchmark, after reporting a fourth-quarter loss.

Fujitsu Ltd., a Japanese maker of computers, network equipment and mobile phones, gained 5.1 percent after saying it will eliminate 5,000 jobs and merge its LSI chip business with Panasonic Corp.

The euro fell the most since July against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the recent strength of the currency creates a concern that inflation will slow.

The 17-nation euro declined versus all but two of 16 major counterparts as Draghi said after a policy meeting in Frankfurt that the risk to the region’s growth remains on the “downside.”

There are downside risks to inflation “stemming from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the euro exchange rate,” according to a statement of opening remarks from Draghi placed on the ECB’s website. The central bank kept its benchmark rate at a record-low 0.75 percent.

Draghi said the euro’s exchange rate is in line with its long-term average, though officials will monitor it in case a “sustained” appreciation alters the ECB’s assessment of risks to price stability. Germany’s two-year note yield fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 0.17 percent.

The pound rose for a second day versus the euro and the dollar after Carney, the Bank of Canada governor who succeeds Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in July, told lawmakers in London that current monetary policy may be enough to help the economy.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent and its asset-purchase target unchanged at 375 billion pounds ($589 billion) at a policy meeting.

New Zealand’s dollar dropped for a second day against the U.S. currency after the statistics bureau said payrolls fell 1 percent in the final three months of 2012. The workforce participation rate declined to the lowest in eight years.

The euro fell the most since July against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the recent strength of the currency creates a concern that inflation will slow.

The 17-nation euro declined versus all but two of 16 major counterparts as Draghi said after a policy meeting in Frankfurt that the risk to the region’s growth remains on the “downside.”

There are downside risks to inflation “stemming from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the euro exchange rate,” according to a statement of opening remarks from Draghi placed on the ECB’s website. The central bank kept its benchmark rate at a record-low 0.75 percent.

Draghi said the euro’s exchange rate is in line with its long-term average, though officials will monitor it in case a “sustained” appreciation alters the ECB’s assessment of risks to price stability. Germany’s two-year note yield fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 0.17 percent.

The pound rose for a second day versus the euro and the dollar after Carney, the Bank of Canada governor who succeeds Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in July, told lawmakers in London that current monetary policy may be enough to help the economy.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent and its asset-purchase target unchanged at 375 billion pounds ($589 billion) at a policy meeting.

New Zealand’s dollar dropped for a second day against the U.S. currency after the statistics bureau said payrolls fell 1 percent in the final three months of 2012. The workforce participation rate declined to the lowest in eight years.

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter I

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks -

02:30 China Trade Balance, bln January 31.6 24.3 29.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 45.8 48.2 49.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 51.0 56.5

05:30 China CPI y/y January +2.5% +2.1% +2.0%

05:30 China PPI y/y January -1.9% -1.6% -1.6%

The euro was poised for its biggest five-day drop in seven months after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said recent currency gains may slow inflation and growth, damping demand for the region’s assets. There are downside risks to inflation “stemming from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the euro exchange rate,” according to a statement of Draghi’s remarks yesterday placed on the ECB’s website. The central bank kept its benchmark rate at a record-low 0.75 percent as forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News.

The 17-nation currency was 0.3 percent from a two-week low against the greenback as European Union leaders meet to seek agreement on the 2014-2020 budget. A promised EU investment budget to modernize the recession- hit economy is set to be scaled back amid competing national demands. A summit deadlock over the 2014-2020 budget would hobble subsidy programs, force the EU to fall back to annual budget extensions and add to concerns about Europe’s political cohesion.

New Zealand’s dollar climbed after data showed exports and imports in China, the South Pacific nation’s second-largest trading partner, rose more than economists forecast.

The yen is set for an unprecedented 13th weekly drop versus the U.S. dollar as Japan posted back-to-back monthly current account deficits for the first time since 1981.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3415.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5740.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y93.50.

With the central bank meetings for the week out of the way, the calendar starts to slow Friday, although there are releases on both sides of the  Atlantic. At 0700GMT, the German December trade numbers are set for release. French data is due for release at 0730GMT, when the January Bank of France business survey will be released. This will be followed by the release of the French January manufacturing investment survey at 0745GMT. From 0800GMT, senior politicians will begin to gather in Brussels for the EU leaders summit to discuss European Budget.

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,672 -7 -0.41%

Change % Change Last

Hang Seng 23,177 -79.93 -0.34%

S&P/ASX 200 4,935.7 +14.75 +0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,418.53 -15.95 -0.66%

CAC 40 3,601.05 -41.85 -1.15%

DAX 7,590.85 +9.67 +0.13%

NASDAQ 3,165.13 -3.35 -0.11%

S&P 500 1,509.32 -2.80 -0.19%

Dow 13,944.05 -42.47 -0.30%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3396 -0,93%

GBP/USD $1,5713 +0,34%

USD/CHF Chf0,9181 +0,88%

USD/JPY Y93,62 +0,02%

EUR/JPY Y125,42 -0,93%

GBP/JPY Y147,12 +0,37%

AUD/USD $1,0282 -0,35%

NZD/USD $0,8329 -0,83%

USD/CAD C$0,9977 +0,22%

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter I

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks -

02:30 China Trade Balance, bln January 31.6 24.3 29.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 45.8 48.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 51.0

05:30 China CPI y/y January +2.5% +2.1%

05:30 China PPI y/y January -1.9% -1.6%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate January 3.0% 3.1%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance December 14.6 13.7

07:00 Germany Current Account December 15.3 17.0

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December +2.9% +3.2%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 198 195

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate January 7.1% 7.2%

13:30 Canada Employment January 39.8 4.5

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions December -2.0 -1.5

13:30 U.S. International trade, bln December -48.7 -45.8