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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-12-2012
The dollar fell against the euro after the Federal Reserve added to its monetary-stimulus program by announcing plans to buys more Treasuries, renewing concern the measures will debase the U.S. currency.
The U.S. currency weakened after the central bank tied its policies to economic benchmarks and said it will buy an additional $45 billion of Treasuries a month, adding to its third round of quantitative easing, and matching economists’ forecasts.
The Fed said interest rates will stay low “at least as long” as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent and if inflation “between one and two years ahead” is projected to be no more than 2.5 percent. The committee “views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance.”
A Fed program known as Operation Twist, which was designed to hold down borrowing costs by lengthening the average maturity of the Fed’s holdings, will expire at year-end. The central bank kept its target rate for overnight loans between banks between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008 to spur economic growth.
The yen fell to the weakest in eight months versus the dollar as Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has pledged fiscal stimulus to stoke economic growth, leads in polls before Dec. 16 elections.
In Japan, LDP leader and former premier Shinzo Abe has called for a doubling of the central bank’s inflation goal to 2 percent and “unlimited” easing to end more than a decade of falling prices. The Bank of Japan is due to a hold a monetary policy meeting on Dec. 19-20.
The euro strengthened earlier today as Greece plans to repurchase government bonds with a face value of 31.9 billion euros ($41.6 billion) from private investors including its own banks in a debt buyback to free up aid for the cash-strapped country.
Fed aims to keep downward pressure on interest rates
The Fed will pay attention to "a number of" indicators of labor market
Fed bond purchases provide important support
Will modify its monetary policy if necessary
The unemployment rate was 7.4% -7.7% in 2013
The Fed predicts the unemployment rate at 6.8% -7.3% in 2014, 6.0% -6.6% in 2015
Fed slightly lowered its forecast for the unemployment rate 2013
Fed officials expect inflation will remain at or below the target level of 2.0% to 2015
Fed slightly lowered its forecast of inflation in 2013
Fed forecasts inflation of 1.3% -2.0% in 2013
Fed expects longer-term inflation at 2.0%
Fed forecasts that GDP growth in the longer term will be 2.3% -2.5%
Core inflation will be 1.6% -1.9% in 2013, 1.6% -2.0% in 2014, 1.8% -2.0% in 2015
In the long term unemployment rate was 5.2% -6.0%
European stocks closed little changed as investors waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its decisions on interest rates and economic stimulus, while American lawmakers continued talks on a new budget.
Consumer prices in Germany in November, down 0.1% compared to the previous month and rose by 1.9% compared with the same period last year. German CPI, harmonized according to EU standards, fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month and up 1.9% compared with the same period last year.
The UK unemployment rate by the standards of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has dropped to 7.8% in August-October against 8.0% in May-July. The number of unemployed in the same period fell by 82,000, to 2.51 million. This is the most significant indicator fell from March-May 2001.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 12 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.4 percent, while France’s CAC 40 was little changed. Germany’s DAX rose 0.3 percent.
Peugeot jumped 10 percent to 5.42 euros after La Tribune reported that Algeria may take a stake in Europe’s second- largest carmaker. Francois Hollande’s envoy Jean-Pierre Raffarin discussed a possible investment when he visited the North African country in November, the paper said. Separately, Peugeot said it will eliminate 1,500 job positions in addition to the 8,000 announced in July. The auto company, whose shares have plummeted 49 percent so far this year, will make the cuts by not replacing people who leave, according to spokesman Jonathan Goodman.
Wacker Chemie AG, the second-biggest maker of solar-grade silicon, surged 12 percent to 48.61 euros. China’s ministry of science and technology announced a second round of solar subsidies for this year, identifying projects with 2.8 gigawatts of power as eligible for state aid.
Barry Callebaut AG dropped 2.3 percent to 919 Swiss francs after saying it will buy Singapore-based Petra Foods’ cocoa- ingredients unit for $950 million. The deal, scheduled to be completed in mid-2013, will be the biggest acquisition made by the Swiss maker of bulk chocolate.
Fed to keep interest rates very low, while unemployment is more than 6.5%
Fed leaves rates are very low, while inflation will remain below 2.5%
Will look at other factors besides inflation, unemployment
Inflation slightly below the target level of 2%, stable expectations
Household spending rose, investment companies slowed
Necessary incentives to achieve the desired level of economic growth
Tensions in global financial markets continue to be a major risk factor
The Fed will continue to buy agency mortgage-backed securities to $ 40 billion per month
Richmond Fed President Lacker expressed his disagreement with the decision, opposed bond purchases and thresholds
Duration of new purchases of Treasury bonds corresponds to the operation "Twist"
The housing sector continues to show signs of improvement
Keeps reinvest MBS proceeds, in Jan will resume rolling at auction, keeps FF target at 0-1/4%, replaces '15 date with "unemploy above 6.55, infl 2.5% or less" plus longer-term infl expectations well anchored. FOMC to consider other labor mkt indicators, infl, fin'l developments.
Oil pared gains after U.S. inventories unexpectedly increased last week and gasoline supplies climbed more than twice as much as forecast.
Stockpiles of crude rose 843,000 in the week ended Dec. 7, the Energy Department said today. Inventories were forecast to decrease 2.5 million barrels.
Oil inventories increased to 372.6 million barrels in the first gain in four weeks, the Energy Department reported. Gasoline stockpiles jumped to 217.1 million, the most since April 6.
Oil rallied as much as 1.6 percent earlier as the International Energy Agency increased its demand forecast and on speculation the Federal Reserve will expand stimulus measures.
Global oil consumption in the fourth quarter will average 90.5 million barrels a day, about 435,000 barrels, or 0.5 percent, more than previously forecast, the Paris-based IEA said in a monthly report today. Demand will expand by 865,000 barrels a day in 2013 to 90.5 million, adding 110,000 barrels to a previous outlook.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its quota at 30 million barrels a day for a second time this year at a meeting today in Vienna after the group’s members judged prices to be sufficiently high.
Crude oil for January delivery advanced to $86.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising to $87.16 earlier. Oil traded at $86.80 a barrel before release of the inventory report.
Brent for January settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange gained $1.47, or 1.4 percent, to $109.48 a barrel.
USD/JPY has broken the 82.90/83.00 area, absorbing feet and reaching 8-month high, as investors adjust positions in anticipation of the Fed decision.
USD/JPY rose, reaching a peak on April 2 at 83.20 before the slow growth. Before the release of the FOMC decision and the elections in Japan in output USD/JPY has risen more than 100 pips this week.
Gold rises in price before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, from which the market is waiting for further stimulus measures.
On the eve of the Fed dollar is close to many months lows, making gold more attractive asset for investors outside the United States.
Widely expected that the committee will announce Wednesday afternoon that replaces the operation twist, the terms of which comes to an end, a new program of purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, which will increase the Fed's balance sheet. Such programs, known as quantitative easing, usually weaken the currency. In the market believe that they are equivalent to printing money.
Stocks of gold-ETFs ETF fell to 76.178 million ounces on Monday reached a record 76.187 million ounces.
February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1720.40 dollars per ounce.
U.S. stock futures rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will expand stimulus measures and as lawmakers continued talks on the budget.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,581.46 +56.14 +0.59%
Hang Seng 22,503.35 +179.41 +0.80%
Shanghai Composite 2,082.73 +8.02 +0.39%
FTSE 5,943.59 +18.62 +0.31%
CAC 3,648.63 +2.48 +0.07%
DAX 7,620.41 +30.66 +0.40%
Crude oil $86.32 +0.62%
Gold $1718.00 +0.49%
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3075
USD/JPY Y82.20, Y82.25, Y82.30, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y83.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0525Data
04:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech December
07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) November -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) November +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
07:45 France CPI, m/m November +0.2% 0.0% -0.2%
07:45 France CPI, y/y November +1.9% +1.6% +1.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count November 6.0 5.1 -3.0
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate November 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate October 7.8% 7.9% 7.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y October +1.8% +1.9% +1.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y October +1.9% +1.9% +1.7%
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) December -27.9 -22.0 -15.5
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) October -2.5% +0.3% -1.4%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.3% -2.4% -3.6%
10:45 United Kingdom BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks
The yen fell to its lowest level in more than eight months against the dollar, as the prospect as to the central banks of the U.S. and Japan will conduct mitigation measures have increased, causing thus reducing the demand for safe assets. Yen also fell against the U.S. dollar after the Japanese government announced the launch of missiles from North Korea around 9:49 am Japan time. Missile heading south, passing Okinawa, and fell into the sea east of the Philippines.
The dollar fell for a third day against the euro, as many market participants expect that the Federal Reserve will announce today the expansion of shopping aktivov.Otmetim the dollar fell against most major currencies this week on speculation that the Fed will increase the purchasing program bonds worth $ 40 billion. The euro also has today's meeting of finance ministers of the European Union. The Eurogroup should formally approve next Greek rescue, pre-approved two weeks ago. Greeks completed yesterday extended the date redemption of the bonds, and its results can be considered very successful. Volume restructuring 31.8 billion, exceeding thus envisaged Athens goal of 30 billion euros, and the average purchase price was 33.8% of the face value of the debt. Problem country not only once again avoid default, which will facilitate and held on Tuesday decent auction of short-term bonds, but now has at least some hope for the future, saving the Greeks still real.
The Australian dollar rose to its highest level in more than two months, as Asian stocks rose, increasing the demand for higher-yielding assets.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair has grown substantially, reaching $ 1.3052
GBP / USD: during the European session, rose to $ 1.6148, updating the maximum of 4 December
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y82.94
At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of import prices for November. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will publish a report on the amount of net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors, and the general terms of net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in October. At 15:30 GMT the U.S. will the data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in December. At 17:30 GMT the U.S. will publish solutions FOMC Interest Rate for December, as well as the accompanying statement will be presented to the December FOMC. At 19:00 GMT the United States will be released monthly performance report for November. At 19:00 GMT the U.S. will release an economic forecast from the FOMC in December. At 19:15 GMT the United States will be a press conference by the Federal Reserve in December
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3085-100, $1.3040/60, $1.3031
Bids $1.2980/70, $1.2950/40, $1.2920, $1.2900, $1.2880/75
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6200, $1.6170/80, $1.6150
Bids $1.6070/60, $1.6045/40, $1.6025/20, $1.6000
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0600, $1.0552
Bids $1.0520/15, $1.0500, $1.0465/60, $1.0450, $1.0440
EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.80, Y108.50, Y108.00
Bids Y107.55/50, Y107.20, Y107.05/00, Y106.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.75, Y83.50, Y83.40, Y83.00
Bids Y82.55/50, Y82.15/10, Y82.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8110/20, stg0.8100, stg0.8085
Bids stg0.8045, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8020, stg0.8005/00
Major stock indexes in Europe show multidirectional movement. Influenced the trading have stat data on industrial production in the euro area, which speak of reducing its rate. For October Y / Y -3.6%, forecast -2.4% m / m -1.4% vs. +0.3%.
Also the focus of the market on the progress of negotiations between the White House and the U.S. Congress over the threat of the "fiscal cliff." It was learned that the parties exchanged new proposals. One of them: "The White House proposed that the revision of the corporate income tax in the negotiations on the" fiscal cliff. "
FTSE 100 5,937.34 +12.37 +0.21%
DAX 7,606.31 +16.56 +0.22%
CAC 3,642.54 -3.61 -0.10%
Shares Imagination Technology Group Plc rose in price by 3.7%. British developer of microarray solutions for tablet PCs and smartphones in the first half of the year recorded a profit above analysts' forecasts.
Paper PSA Peugeot rose 3.8%. The second largest automaker in Europe would cut another 1.5 thousand employees in addition to the 8 th, the reduction of which was announced in July. From the beginning, the company's capitalization has decreased by 53%.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3075
USD/JPY Y82.20, Y82.25, Y82.30, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y83.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0525
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest streak of gains in three years, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will step up monetary easing.
Nikkei 225 9,581.46 +56.14 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,583.81 +7.81 +0.17%
Shanghai Composite 2,082.73 +8.02 +0.39%
James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, added 1.7 percent in Sydney.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. jumped 8.9 percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported the Japanese carmaker’s withdrawal from European production will boost its profit.
Guoco Group Ltd. surged 29 percent in Hong Kong after the property developer received a HK$8.25 billion ($1 billion) buyout offer from its biggest shareholder.
The euro strengthened for a second day against the dollar after a German report showed investor confidence jumped this month. The 17-nation currency rose versus all except two of its 16 major counterparts.
Spain sold a combined 3.89 billion euros of 12- and 18- month bills, the central bank said. That compared with its maximum target of 3.5 billion euros. It sold the 12-month securities at an average yield of 2.556 percent, compared with 2.797 percent on Nov. 20.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of German investor and analyst expectations climbed to 6.9 this month from minus 15.7 in November. Economists forecast a gain to minus 11.5, according to a survey.
The Dollar Index fell the most in a week as 48 of 49 economists in a survey expect the Federal Reserve will expand its bond buying program at a two-day meeting starting. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback versus the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.3 percent to 80.103, the biggest drop since Dec. 4.
The dollar fell against most of its major peers before the Federal Open Market Committee begins its last meeting for 2012. The central bank will increase accommodation by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying in addition to the existing program of $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion.
The Swiss franc fell against the euro as UBS AG joined Credit Suisse Group AG in saying it will charge bank clients for deposits made in the currency. UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, said it will start charging financial institutional clients for cash balances held in francs from Dec. 21. The amounts will be communicated individually to clients within days the bank said, adding that “we encourage our customers to keep their Swiss franc balances as low as possible.” The franc dropped last week as Credit Suisse was said to set a negative rate of as much as minus 1 percent on balances held in the currency.
Asian stocks rose, with a regional index excluding Japan heading for its highest close in 16 months, ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting and as investors await progress on U.S. budget talks.
Nikkei 225 9,525.32 -8.43 -0.09%
Hang Seng 22,323.94 +47.22 +0.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,576 +18.06 +0.40%
Shanghai Composite 2,074.7 -9.07 -0.44%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, added 1.3 percent in Sydney after metal prices rose.
STX Offshore & Shipbuilding Co. jumped 7.2 percent in Seoul after a report the shipbuilder’s parent was to selling a unit that makes offshore vessels.
Kansai Electric Power Co. led Japanese utilities lower after regulators said an active earthquake fault may be running under a nuclear reactor.
European stocks closed little changed at an eight-month high amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will expand its asset purchases to provide economic stimulus and a report that showed German investor confidence increased in December.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 6.9 this month from minus 15.7 in November. Economists had forecast a gain to minus 11.5, according to the median of 38 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
In the U.S., Fed rate setters begin a two-day meeting today. The officials will consider whether to supplement $40 billion a month of mortgage-bond purchases with Treasury purchases when their Operation Twist program expires at the end of this month. They will also issue updated projections on economic growth, unemployment and inflation on Dec. 12.
FTSE 100 5,924.97 +3.34 +0.06%, CAC 40 3,646.15 +34.05 +0.94%, DAX 7,589.75 +58.83 +0.78%
ThyssenKrupp rallied 5.6 percent to 17.18 euros. Germany’s largest steelmaker said it will sell its Steel Americas business by the end of next year. Chief Financial Officer Guido Kerkhoff said that more than five bidders have expressed an interest in either or both of the plants in Alabama and Rio de Janeiro state. The shares earlier dropped as much as 3.4 percent after the company said that it won’t pay an annual dividend after reporting a second straight yearly loss, including a 3.6 billion-euro ($4.7 billion) writedown for the Steel Americas unit.
Diageo dropped 1.6 percent to 1,855.5 pence after saying it ended talks with JB y Cia. SA de C.V. and Lanceros S.A. de C.V. over its plan to buy Jose Cuervo. The London-based distiller will also end an agreement to distribute the tequila brand outside Mexico when it expires at the end of June next year.
Shares of the Belgian financial group KBC fell in price by 4.8%. KBC raised EUR 1.25 billion from the offering, selling 58.8 million securities at 21.25 euros per share, which represents a 9.5 percent discount to their value at the close of the market on Monday.
Indexes started the session due to the strong growth of data on the confidence in the business community in Germany and a better than expected, the statistics on the U.S. trade balance.
According to the data released today, the German ZEW economic expectations index unexpectedly jumped in December from -15.7 points to a positive value of 6.9 points, although it was expected -12 points. Trade deficit in the U.S. rose in October, as the maximum for almost 4 years reduced exports exceeded imports fall, a sign of slowing global growth. Deficit rose by 4.9% to $ 42.2 billion from a revised $ 40.3 for a fall billion in September, official data showed. According to the median forecast of economists, expected to grow to $ 42.7 billion of exports decreased by 3.6%, the most since January 2009.
Support indices have also reported that the volume of requests to buy back Greek debt exceeded 31 billion euros, which is enough for it. Successful implementation of the plan to repurchase its own bonds of Greece opens the door to get the next tranche of financial aid.
Positively on the index also reflected the growing optimism of market participants regarding a decision on the "fiscal cliff." The reason for the growing optimism on the subject was published material in the WSJ, which noted that in the last days of talks between the White House and Speaker John Boehner show strong progress.
Most of the components of the index rose DOW (26 of 30). The largest decline shares Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, -1.75%). Lead stock Intel (INTC, +2.84%).
All sectors of the S & P showed an increase. Technology sector leader (+1.2%).
High-tech giant Apple shares added 2.2% after Morgan Stanley analysts reiterated their rating to "Outperform."
At the close:
Dow 13,248.44 +78.56 +0.60%
Nasdaq 3,022.30 +35.34 +1.18%
S & P 500 1,427.84 +9.29 +0.65%
04:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech December
The dollar remained lower versus the euro after a two-day decline, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce today an expansion of asset purchases that tend to weaken the U.S. currency. The greenback slid versus most of its 16 major counterparts yesterday amid speculation the Fed will add Treasury purchases to an existing program that buys $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The Federal Open Market Committee will probably announce $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that would push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 49 economists. It concludes a two-day policy meeting today.
The euro was supported ahead of meetings of European Union finance ministers and heads of government this week, while Greece met its bond buyback target. An official from Greece’s Finance Ministry said yesterday investors tendered Greek bonds with a face value of more than 31 billion euros ($40 billion), meeting a goal that’s crucial to unlocking aid from the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
The yen fell as much as 0.2 percent against the dollar after the Japanese government said North Korea launched a rocket at around 9:49 a.m. Japan time, and it headed in a southerly direction, passing over Okinawa, before falling into the sea east of the Philippines.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2995-15.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6105-20.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y82.70.
Change % Change Last
Oil $85.95 +0.16 +0.19%
Gold $1,711.20 +1.60 +0.09%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,525.32 -8.43 -0.09%
Hang Seng 22,323.94 +47.22 +0.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,576 +18.06 +0.40%
Shanghai Composite 2,074.7 -9.07 -0.44%
FTSE 100 5,924.97 +3.34 +0.06%
CAC 40 3,646.15 +34.05 +0.94%
DAX 7,589.75 +58.83 +0.78%
Dow 13,248.44 +78.56 +0.60%
Nasdaq 3,022.30 +35.34 +1.18%
S&P 500 1,427.84 +9.29 +0.65%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3004 +0,49%
GBP/USD $1,6112 +0,24%
USD/CHF Chf0,9322 -0,12%
USD/JPY Y82,51 +0,18%
EUR/JPY Y107,33 +0,73%
GBP/JPY Y132,94 +0,44%
AUD/USD $1,0528 +0,39%
NZD/USD $0,8391 +0,52%
USD/CAD C$0,9860 -0,03%
04:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech December
07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) November -0.1% -0.1%
07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) November +1.9% +1.9%
07:45 France CPI, m/m November +0.2% 0.0%
07:45 France CPI, y/y November +1.9% +1.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count November 10.1 5.1
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate November 4.8% 4.8%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate October 7.8% 7.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y October +1.8% +1.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y October +1.9% +1.9%
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) December -27.9 -22.0
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) October -2.5% +0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.3% -2.4%
10:45 United Kingdom BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks -
13:30 U.S. Import Price Index November +0.5% -0.4%
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -2.4
17:30 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%
17:30 U.S. FOMC Statement -
19:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections -
19:00 U.S. Federal budget November -120.0 -147.5
19:15 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference December 21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) November -0.8%
21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI November 50.5
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m November -0.6%
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y November +0.3%
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