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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-12-2012
The yen fell to the weakest level in almost nine months versus the dollar amid speculation the party of Japanese opposition leader Shinzo Abe, an advocate of unlimited monetary easing, will win weekend elections. The yen slid against most of its major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey will show manufacturers’ pessimism grew.
The pound slipped after S&P lowered the outlook on Britain’s AAA ratings, citing weak economic growth and a worsening debt profile. The outlook, revised from stable, reflects the view that S&P has a one-in-three chance of lowering the ratings in the next two years, according to a statement from the ratings company.
The euro rose after news that European Union finance ministers closer to a bank union to reach an agreement on a common banking supervisors. The European Central Bank will oversee the largest creditors of the region.
Also support the single currency was a message about that. that the Eurogroup approved the allocation of aid to Greece. In December, Greece will receive 34.3 billion euros, and in the 1st quarter of 2013 - the new installment.
The euro continues to trade at a higher against the dollar, despite the uncertainty of the situation in the U.S., which reminded Boehner last comments on the fiscal cliff.
The Swiss franc strengthened against the euro after the Swiss National Bank left unchanged the target range for the three-month interest rate of LIBOR 0,0% -0,25%. The bank reiterated that it will intervene in the currency markets to prevent the growth of the Swiss franc against the euro and the weakening of the euro / franc below 1.20.
European stocks fell from an 18- month high as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s plan to buy $45 billion a month of Treasuries will fail to offset the effects of the fiscal cliff.
European Union finance ministers agreed to put the European Central Bank in charge of all large euro-area lenders. About 200 banks will qualify for oversight by the ECB rather than national regulators, Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier said in Brussels today.
At a separate meeting, euro-area ministers approved a 49.1 billion-euro ($64 billion) installment of aid to Greece. The payment forms part of the nation’s two bailouts from the EU and the International Monetary Fund. The leaders of the 27 member states began a two-day summit today.
National benchmark indexes retreated in 11 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) slid 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 0.4 percent. France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.1 percent.
Deutsche Bank lost 2.7 percent to 33.35 euros after saying that increased restructuring costs will cause the bank to miss profit forecasts this quarter. The average of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg had predicted net income of 509.8 million euros.
UBS AG dropped 1.1 percent to 15.08 Swiss francs after a person familiar with the matter said U.S. and U.K. regulators may fine Switzerland’s biggest bank more than $1 billion for trying to rig global interest rates. The final figure may still change, three people familiar with the investigations said.
Centamin tumbled 47 percent to 27.7 pence, its biggest drop since its initial public offering in 2001. The company said that Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. will not supply it with diesel for the Sukari gold mine until it pays a bill for $65 million. Centamin called the claim illegal.
Volvo declined 4.3 percent to 91.85 kronor after Renault sold its remaining stake in the Swedish truck maker for 12.8 billion kronor ($1.9 billion). The French carmaker disposed of a 6.5 percent holding, saying it would use the proceeds to reduce debt and invest in France, Russia and China. Renault’s shares climbed 1.5 percent to 40.22 euros.
The British pound weakened sharply against the dollar in response to the news that S & P has revised its outlook on the UK 'AAA' from stable to negative, although it confirmed the rating itself at current levels.
Pound updated intraday low of $ 1.6083 and then rebounded slightly.
Oil fluctuated as U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in November and first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined to a nine-week low.
Prices were little changed as the Commerce Department said sales gained 0.3 percent last month. The median forecast of economists called for a 0.5 percent gain. Applications for jobless benefits fell to 343,000 in the week ended Dec. 8, the fewest since Oct. 6.
The gain in November’s retail sales followed a 0.3 percent decrease in October, Commerce Department data showed. Car sales jumped to a four-year high, in part because Americans in Hurricane Sandy’s path replaced damaged vehicles.
Last week’s jobless claims were less than the 369,000 economists had expected. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of claims, decreased to 381,500 from 408,500.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. stagnated last week, showing a lack of improvement since October. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index slipped to minus 34.5 in the period ended Dec. 9, the lowest level in six weeks.
The U.S., the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, used 18.8 million barrels a day in 2011, or 21 percent of the global total, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
Investors also watched budget debates in Washington. Republicans have “some serious differences” with President Barack Obama’s budget proposals, House Speaker John Boehner said yesterday.
Crude for January delivery traded in a range of $86.06 - $86.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 12 percent this year.
Brent for January settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange slid 57 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $108.93 a barrel.
Gold prices on Thursday fell by more than 1% after the U.S. Federal Reserve on the eve of their policies linked to the level of unemployment. Gold futures ended the session on Wednesday, the highest level in more than a week after the Federal Reserve announced a new program of bond purchases, which, according to investors and analysts, can accelerate inflation.
Dollar rises on Thursday, as investors digested the news from the Federal Reserve and decided to take profits, eliminating the "short" dollar positions.
Virtually all indicators released today from the U.S. disappointed analysts, and only business inventories coincided with forecasts of economists, reaching 0.4%. In general, U.S. data was worse than expected: PPI (y / y) declined from 2.3% to 1.5% (forecast 1.8%), while retail sales (m / m) in November rose by 0.3% vs. 0 5%.
Investors paid attention to the eurozone leaders to take stock and analyze the achievements of the year. The ECB has recently landed the role of the supervisory authority over banks in the region, while Greece was approved the next tranche of € 34.4 billion French President Hollande praised Monti for his role in the fate of Italy and the contribution to the June summit. Merkel and Juncker also endorsed the decisions taken this week.
February futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1690.70 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3080, $1.3150, $1.3155, $1.3175
USD/JPY Y82.80, Y82.75, Y82.50, Y82.45
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0465, $1.0500, $1.0520, $1.06550, $1.0560
NZD/USD $0.8400
Data
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation December +2.2% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) November -2.8% 0.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) November +8.6% +9.7%
06:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter I
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m November -0.1% -0.3% 0.0%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y November +0.4% +1.0% +1.2%
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
08:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment -
08:30 Switzerland SNB Press Conference -
09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report December
09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -
11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance December -21 -17 -12
The yen fell to its lowest level in nearly nine months against the dollar on speculation that Japan's opposition leader Shinzo Abe, who is a supporter of unlimited easing of monetary policy, will win the elections to be held this weekend. The yen also fell in anticipation of the report of the Bank of Japan Tankan, which is expected to economists shows growing pessimism among manufacturers.
The dollar rose for the first time in four days against the euro after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the recent stimulus measures of the central bank will not offset the effects of a "financial cliff", which immediately caused increased demand for the dollar.
Franc rose against the euro after the Swiss National Bank left its lower limit for the pair EUR / CHF at 1.20.
The pound fell for the first time in four days against the dollar as a report showed that the majority of UK manufacturers is declining orders. Sterling fell against 12 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation the central bank will resume asset purchases under its quantitative easing program. Note also that the data released today showed that the balance of industrial orders Confederation of British Industry in December rose to -12 from -21 in November.
But in spite of this strengthening of the dollar and the pound, in the last couple of hours are observed to significantly decrease, which was caused by the Eurogroup statement on the allocation of Greek bailout package totaling 49.1 billion euros.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped significantly, reaching $ 1.3040, but later recovered to $ 1.3080
GBP / USD: during the European session, fell to $ 1.6110, and then rose to $ 1.6140
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y83.25, but now risen to the level of Y83.53
At 13:30 GMT the United States, there are data on retail sales and retail sales excluding auto sales for November. Also during this time will be submitted to the producer price index, producer price index for the base, and become aware of the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits. In addition, Canada will report on the use of production capacity, and publish an index of prices for new homes in October. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. will know about the level of business inventories for October. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will release the index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan, and the index of activity in the large producers and the activity index for large companies from all industries on IV-th quarter.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3200/10, $1.3170/80, $1.3140/50, $1.3110-30, $1.3100
Bids $1.3040, $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980/70, $1.2950/40, $1.2920, $1.2900
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6200, $1.6175/85, $1.6150
Bids $1.6111, $1.6100/090, $1.6070/60, $1.6045/40, $1.6025/20, $1.6000
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0670, $1.0650, $1.0620/25, $1.0600
Bids $1.0540/35, $1.0520, $1.0500/490, $1.0465/60
EUR/JPY
Offers Y111.20/30, Y111.00, Y110.50/65, Y110.00/20, Y109.60
Bids Y108.65/50, Y108.00, Y107.50/40
USD/JPY
Offers Y84.50/60, Y84.20/30, Y83.85/4.00, Y83.70/75
Bids Y83.00/2.80, Y82.60-40
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220, stg0.8195/200, stg0.8110/20
Bids stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60, stg0.8045, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8020, stg0.8005/00
In the red zone traded major stock indexes in Europe. The reason for this statement by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the "fiscal cliff" is harmful to the U.S. economy, he said the lack of progress in the negotiations between the administration of President Barack Obama and Republicans in the House of Representatives has a negative impact on the level of confidence of consumers and entrepreneurs, which leads to reduce investment.
In addition to this according to the U.S. Department of Treasury's budget deficit in November was $ 172 billion that significantly worse than expected.
Failed to have a positive impact on investor sentiment fact of the ECB's supervisory powers over banks in the eurozone. The new rules should enter into force by the end of 2013., But the implementation of the program may be postponed to a later date.
FTSE 100 5,930.97 -14.88 -0.25%
CAC 40 3,638.03 -8.63 -0.24%
DAX 7,570.37 -44.42 -0.58%
Renault SA shares rose 2.5%. French carmaker sold all his property remained in the package of 6.5% of Volvo AB for $ 1.92 billion, the paper which have dropped in price by 3.1%.
Centamin plc capitalization has fallen by 57.1% on news that the mining company has suspended production of gold in Egypt.
EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3080, $1.3150, $1.3155, $1.3175
USD/JPY Y82.80, Y82.75, Y82.50, Y82.45
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0465, $1.0500, $1.0520, $1.06550, $1.0560
NZD/USD $0.8400
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index extending its longest rally in more than three years, as Japanese exporters advanced after the yen touched an almost nine-month low versus the dollar.
Nikkei 225 9,742.73 +161.27 +1.68%
S&P/ASX 200 4,582.79 -1.02 -0.02%
Shanghai Composite 2,061.48 -21.25 -1.02%
Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, climbed 2.1 percent in Tokyo as the weaker yen boosted the outlook for exporters.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. rose 1.1 percent as Japan’s No. 1 lender is poised to announce the purchase of Bank of America Corp.’s stake in their Japanese private banking venture.
Chimei Innolux Corp., Taiwan’s largest maker of liquid- crystal displays, jumped 6.9 percent on a report it will return to profit next year as sales increase.
The dollar fell against the euro after the Federal Reserve added to its monetary-stimulus program by announcing plans to buys more Treasuries, renewing concern the measures will debase the U.S. currency.
The U.S. currency weakened after the central bank tied its policies to economic benchmarks and said it will buy an additional $45 billion of Treasuries a month, adding to its third round of quantitative easing, and matching economists’ forecasts.
The Fed said interest rates will stay low “at least as long” as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent and if inflation “between one and two years ahead” is projected to be no more than 2.5 percent. The committee “views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance.”
A Fed program known as Operation Twist, which was designed to hold down borrowing costs by lengthening the average maturity of the Fed’s holdings, will expire at year-end. The central bank kept its target rate for overnight loans between banks between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008 to spur economic growth.
The yen fell to the weakest in eight months versus the dollar as Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has pledged fiscal stimulus to stoke economic growth, leads in polls before Dec. 16 elections.
In Japan, LDP leader and former premier Shinzo Abe has called for a doubling of the central bank’s inflation goal to 2 percent and “unlimited” easing to end more than a decade of falling prices. The Bank of Japan is due to a hold a monetary policy meeting on Dec. 19-20.
The euro strengthened earlier as Greece plans to repurchase government bonds with a face value of 31.9 billion euros ($41.6 billion) from private investors including its own banks in a debt buyback to free up aid for the cash-strapped country.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest streak of gains in three years, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will step up monetary easing.
Nikkei 225 9,581.46 +56.14 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,583.81 +7.81 +0.17%
Shanghai Composite 2,082.73 +8.02 +0.39%
James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, added 1.7 percent in Sydney.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. jumped 8.9 percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported the Japanese carmaker’s withdrawal from European production will boost its profit.
Guoco Group Ltd. surged 29 percent in Hong Kong after the property developer received a HK$8.25 billion ($1 billion) buyout offer from its biggest shareholder.
European stocks closed little changed as investors waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its decisions on interest rates and economic stimulus, while American lawmakers continued talks on a new budget.
Consumer prices in Germany in November, down 0.1% compared to the previous month and rose by 1.9% compared with the same period last year. German CPI, harmonized according to EU standards, fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month and up 1.9% compared with the same period last year.
The UK unemployment rate by the standards of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has dropped to 7.8% in August-October against 8.0% in May-July. The number of unemployed in the same period fell by 82,000, to 2.51 million. This is the most significant indicator fell from March-May 2001.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 12 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.4 percent, while France’s CAC 40 was little changed. Germany’s DAX rose 0.3 percent.
Peugeot jumped 10 percent to 5.42 euros after La Tribune reported that Algeria may take a stake in Europe’s second- largest carmaker. Francois Hollande’s envoy Jean-Pierre Raffarin discussed a possible investment when he visited the North African country in November, the paper said. Separately, Peugeot said it will eliminate 1,500 job positions in addition to the 8,000 announced in July. The auto company, whose shares have plummeted 49 percent so far this year, will make the cuts by not replacing people who leave, according to spokesman Jonathan Goodman.
Wacker Chemie AG, the second-biggest maker of solar-grade silicon, surged 12 percent to 48.61 euros. China’s ministry of science and technology announced a second round of solar subsidies for this year, identifying projects with 2.8 gigawatts of power as eligible for state aid.
Barry Callebaut AG dropped 2.3 percent to 919 Swiss francs after saying it will buy Singapore-based Petra Foods’ cocoa- ingredients unit for $950 million. The deal, scheduled to be completed in mid-2013, will be the biggest acquisition made by the Swiss maker of bulk chocolate.
Indexes started the session moderately higher, but to consolidate its growth could not, and fell after the results meeting of the Open Market (FOMC) U.S. Federal Reserve.
U.S. Federal Reserve changed its bond-buying program, extending far-reaching efforts to revive the labor market and promoting economic recovery in 2013.
At the last meeting of this year, the Committee on the open market operations the Fed announced that it will begin "from the beginning" to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds by $ 45 billion a month. Last stimulus program from the Fed at the end of a suitable substitute for "operation twist", in which the Fed buys U.S. Treasury bonds by about $ 45 billion a month and sold short by about the same amount.
In contrast to the "Operation Twist," a new program of bond purchases increase the Fed's portfolio of assets, which last week reached 2.861 trillion dollars.
In addition, the Fed changed its communications strategy, called the level of unemployment and inflation, which can make it start to raise short-term interest rates, which are currently near zero.
The focus of market participants is still the situation with the solution of the "fiscal cliff." Investors are waiting for at least some specific information about the negotiations.
DOW index components were mixed. Below are the remaining shares Wal-Mart (WMT, -2.75%). Shares lead Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +1.89%).
Among the sectors of the S & P also is mixed dynamics. The largest increase (+0.3%) in the three sectors - financial and industrial products and raw materials. At the bottom of the list - the services sector and health care (-0.3%).
The market capitalization of one of the largest insurers in the U.S. Aetna rose by 3.2% - the company predicts a 9% rise in sales and profit improvement next year.
At the close:
Dow 13,245.45 -2.99 -0.02%
Nasdaq 3,013.82 -8.48 -0.28%
S & P 500 1,428.48 +0.64 +0.04%
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation December +2.2% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) November -2.8% 0.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) November +8.6% +9.7%
The yen fell to the weakest level in almost nine months against the dollar before the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey tomorrow, which economists say will show big manufacturers in the nation grew more pessimistic. The BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey tomorrow will probably show that sentiment among large manufacturers slid to minus 10 from minus 3 in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That would be the lowest since the first quarter of 2010.
The Japanese currency touched an eight-month low versus the euro as polls suggest Shinzo Abe’s opposition party will win power in Japan’s Dec. 16 elections, adding to pressure on the central bank to take more easing steps as early as next week. Abe, whose Liberal Democratic Party leads in opinion polls before the general election this weekend, has called for a doubling of the central bank’s inflation goal to 2 percent and unlimited easing to revive growth. The BOJ is due to a hold a monetary policy meeting on Dec. 19-20.
The euro maintained three days of gains after the Federal Reserve said it will expand its asset purchases, and before European Union leaders begin a two-day summit today. The Fed said it will buy $45 billion a month of Treasury securities starting in January to spur the economy. The U.S. central bank plans to “maintain accommodation as long as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday at a press conference after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Rates will stay low “at least as long” as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and if inflation is projected to be no more than 2.5 percent, the FOMC said in a statement. The thresholds replace the Fed’s earlier view that rates would stay near zero at least through the middle of 2015.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3055-90.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6125-45.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y83.65.
The UK calendar starts at 0930GMT, with the release of the SMMT car production figures for November. At 1000GMT, UK Treasury Officials are scheduled to appear before the Treasury Select Committee to discuss the Autumn Statement. At 1100GMT, the UK CBI Industrial trends survey for December will cross the wires.
Change % Change Last
Oil $86.75 -0.02 -0.02%
Gold $1,712.70 -5.20 -0.30%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,581.46 +56.14 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,583.81 +7.81 +0.17%
Shanghai Composite 2,082.73 +8.02 +0.39%
FTSE 100 5,945.85 +20.88 +0.35%
CAC 40 3,646.66 +0.51 +0.01%
DAX 7,614.79 +25.04 +0.33%
Dow 13,245.45 -2.99 -0.02%
Nasdaq 3,013.82 -8.48 -0.28%
S&P 500 1,428.48 +0.64 +0.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3073 +0,53%
GBP/USD $1,6147 +0,22%
USD/CHF Chf0,9262 -0,65%
USD/JPY Y83,25 +0,89%
EUR/JPY Y108,83 +1,38%
GBP/JPY Y134,41 +1,09%
AUD/USD $1,0553 +0,24%
NZD/USD $0,8434 +0,51%
USD/CAD C$0,9844 -0,16%
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation December +2.2% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) November -2.8% 0.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) November +8.6% +9.7%
06:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter I
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m November -0.1% -0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y November +0.4% +1.0%
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%
08:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment -
08:30 Switzerland SNB Press Conference -
09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report December
09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -
11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance December -21 -17
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index October +0.2% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales November -0.3% +0.4%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto November 0.0% -0.1%
13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m November -0.2% -0.4%
13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y November +2.3% +1.8%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m November -0.2% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November +2.1% +2.2%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 370 370
15:00 U.S. Business inventories October +0.7% +0.4%
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index IV quarter -3
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index IV quarter 8
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